Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282027 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 427 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the weekend. The next cold front pushes across the region Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A quick flare up in weak radar echo returns occurred over the past few hours across extreme SE VA and NE NC, however these echoes have diminished and any chance for isolated showers/storms in these areas have ended for this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front associated with low pressure over srn Hudson Bay remains connected to a warm front associated with low pressure currently located over the TX Panhandle late this afternoon. These frontal boundaries will lift north tonight and partly to mostly cloudy skies will be possible near the boundary for the nwrn half of the CWA. The nwd shift of the boundary will also allow strong warm air advection to begin. Meanwhile, a Bermuda sfc high retrogrades towards the Southeast Coast with stacked mid-high level high pressure amplifying over the Mid Atlantic Region through Saturday. Factor in increasing dewpoints and decent south to southwest winds during this time, and warm temperatures can be expected. Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the lower 70s (mid-upper 60s beaches). Highs Saturday in the lower 90s inland (85-90F beaches). Local climate sites may tie or break records tonight/tomorrow. See climate section below for more detailed information. With the stacked high overhead, precipitation will be very limited due to downslope drying from south-southwest winds and strong subsidence aloft, which will limit lift/instability potential for convection or anything other than few-sct fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. The warm front, which is associated with the srn Plains low, is expected to stall invof nrn VA/Mason-Dixon Line Saturday night into Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible along/north of a line from Caroline County to Wallops Island Saturday evening. Any threat for rain ends thereafter due to the boundary shifting northeast and lack of daytime heating to support lift/convection. Meanwhile, mid-upper level high pressure shifts eastward and away from the Southeast Coast late Saturday night into Sunday, and temperatures will continue to be very warm. Expect lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 60s beaches), and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland (low-mid 80s beaches due to a slightly more onshore wind direction). Temps still in ballpark to tie or break records for maximum low temperatures and could fall a few degrees short for high temp records on Sunday. Again, see climate section below for more detailed information. The srn Plains low tracks NNE into IA/MN/WI Sunday night into Monday, and the strong cold front associated with it is expected to track across the Ohio Valley on Monday...approaching the Mid Atlantic Region. Slightly cooler Sunday night as high cirrus streams into the area from the SW-W in southwest flow aloft. Expect lows generally in the upper 60s (low-mid 60s beaches). Winds ramp up by mid-late morning on Monday ahead of the approaching front. South to southwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph should be anticipated. Models have precipitation progged to arrive in far wrn portions of the CWA in the afternoon. In reality, the orientation of the front and subsequent upper level jet are oriented north to south, which will likely result in a slower arrival time sometime Monday evening. Can shore up better timing potential over the next few model runs. Overall, the front is not expected to cross the region until Monday night with more widespread showers/storms anticipated. Pwats approach 1.50 inches by the time rain begins and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall should occur. Wind profiles are fairly unidirectional from southwest with low-level veering with height. This would suggest that strong to locally severe wind gusts will also be possible. Again, can shore up details as Monday nears. Temperatures could prove to be tricky as mid- high clouds increase from the SW-W as Monday progresses, however ample mixing could negate any cooling effects from the expected cloud cover. Kept temperatures warmer than model guidance with highs in the mid-upper 80s (low-mid 80s beaches).
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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There will be increasing chcs for showers and tstms fm the west late Sun night into Mon morning, as a cold front pushes into the mts. That cold front will push thru the mts by late Mon, then cross the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have maintained high chc to likely Pops for showers/tstms fm Mon aftn into Tue morning. Lows Sun night will range thru the 60s. Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for later Tue morning thru Wed, as it slides from the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on Tue and Wed mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tue night ranging thru the 50s to near 60. Another low pressure area will lift fm the lower MS valley twd the OH valley Wed night thru Thu. This will result in increasing chcs for showers or tstms, esply during Thu. Lows Wed night in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Thu in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The moisture associated with dying frontal boundary has pulled east of the area, leaving just the low level moisture in its wake. So there is still some scattered cumulus streets in place across NE NC and SE VA, but ceilings have climbed to around 4-6kft. As drier air aloft mixes in, expect much of these clouds to weaken and dissipate between 22z and 00z Sat. This will leave VFR conditions in place through tonight. The upper level ridge will build into the region overnight with the strong surface ridge over the Western Atlantic. This will led to turn a weak southerly/variable wind flow in place now to a strong SW flow overnight into the day on Saturday. The models suggest, especially the NAM that as the SW flow sets up tonight, it could set the stage for some low stratus to form as the lingering low level moisture lifts northward with some weak isentropic lift. Have not added any restrictions with this forecast, just showed some scattered 1k - 2k FT clouds. With the increasing winds fog should not be an issue. On Saturday, VFR conditions will prevail with the SW Flow and limited moisture for any clouds by mid afternoon. Outlook...Mainly dry weather expected through the remainder of the weekend. Next frontal boundary expected late Monday into Tuesday with possibility of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... A weak cold front will stall just north of the waters this morning before dissipating. Winds will remain from the south as high pressure off the Southeast coast strengthens over the area. SCA in the northern coastal waters are barely up to 5 feet this morning. SCA remains in effect north of Parramore Island until 1 PM EDT but may be cancelled prior to that. A period of sub-SCA conditions is expected late today through Sunday. Deep low pressure develops over the southern Great Plains Saturday and moves through the upper Midwest. A cold front will move east and is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic States Monday night or early Tuesday. Southerly winds ahead of the front will likely generate SCA conditions Monday and Monday night. Seas build to 5 to 8 feet and stay 5 feet or higher through Tuesday. && .CLIMATE...
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Record Lows/Highs for April 29: Forecast Record Location Low Low Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 72 67 1956 Norfolk 70 66 1981 Salisbury 69 65 1974 Forecast Record Location High High Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 93 93 1974 Norfolk 91 92 1974 Salisbury 90 89 1974 ********************************************* Record Lows/Highs for April 30: Forecast Record Location Low Low Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 72 63 2014 Norfolk 70 67 1994 Salisbury 68 63 1983 Forecast Record Location High High Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 91 94 1942 Norfolk 88 93 1888 Salisbury 86 86 1974
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ESS MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...BMD

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