Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272025 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 425 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front will cross the area this evening into early Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday, then slides off the coast for Wednesday night through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Late this aftn, the latest radar showed widely sctd showers developing over Nrn VA into SE MD and over extrm SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, it was partly sunny with temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Trough aloft and an associated weak cold front will cross the area this evening into early Wed morning. This boundary will still trigger isolated to sctd showers/tstms, esply along and E of I 95 thru this evening. Will continue with 20-30% PoPs. High pressure will build in fm the west overnight. Lows tonight will range thru the 50s into the lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc high pressure will build over the region on Wed, providing dry weather and comfortable conditions under a sunny or mostly sunny sky. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, except mid to upper 70s at the beaches. The high will slide out to sea later Wed night thru Fri. Dry weather will prevail thru Thu night, but SSW flow will start to increase on Thu resulting in a warmer and more humid airmass. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows 60 to 65. Partly to mostly sunny on Thu with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture into the region for Thu night and Fri. Enough of that moisture combined with weak lift could trigger widely sctd showers or tstms over srn/sw counties Fri aftn into Fri evening. Lows Thu night in the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Fri in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will begin mainly dry Thu night/Fri as the models remain in good agreement with the pattern of high pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the mid-Atlc/SE coast. Highs Fri look to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s with dew pts increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s. An isolated late day tstm possible over the far W and for interior NE NC but have genly kept PoPs <15%. A little better chance for rain arrives Sat aftn/Sat night as somewhat deeper moisture develops along a lee trough. Will cap PoPs at 20-30% in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays W of the Mtns closer to an approaching cold front. Lows mainly 70-75 F with highs again primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will see a further increase in PoPs to ~40% by aftn/evening as the cold front gets closer to the local area. With this several days out will cap PoPs at 40% for now, but may raise PoPs for this in future updates if the timing holds. Mon will see the front slow or stall across mainly southern portions of the area with ~40% PoPs S to 20-30% elsewhere. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s and highs 85-90 F. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. A weak cold front will pass through the region late this afternoon/tonight. Additional isolated/scattered shwrs/tstms are possible this afternoon and evening, especially E of I 95. Latest hi-res guidance suggests KSBY has the best chance, but not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be variable and under 10kts until frontal passage, then become N/NE post frontal passage. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for much of the week...as sfc hi pres builds over the region, then slides off the coast on Thursday. Next chance for ceiling/vsby restrictions will be late Friday/Saturday in scattered showers/tstms. && .MARINE... 10 am update...Have increased winds/waves through the rest of the morning as observations show brief northerly surge moving down the middle/lower Bay. Winds should subside to 10 kt or less around or shortly after noon. In addition, hi res models suggest another northerly surge overnight into early Wednesday morning behind secondary cold front. Winds could approach SCA criteria for a brief period, before again subsiding by late morning. Rest of forecast unchanged at this time. Previous discussion...Generally a quiet pattern through Wed night with a weak pressure gradient, although there will be a few brief wind shifts w/ weak frontal passages early this morning and with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Weak CAA today will only bring N/NW winds behind the front of 10-15 kt, diminishing by aftn to 5-10 kt. Sfc high pressure returns for Wednesday aftn leading to an aftn sea breeze 10 kt or less. Waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with seas over the coastal waters 2-3 ft thru Wed. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night, but they will be marginal events. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...WRS MARINE...LKB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.