Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291939 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 339 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS 30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES. LOW TEMPS 70-75F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO 10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON. FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW. NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB

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