Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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469 FXUS61 KAKQ 090901 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE. BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRTICAL THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY N OF THE CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1" (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS. DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO EARLY WED. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT). HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND CAMBRIDGE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024- 025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098>100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM/TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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