Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210224 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 924 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mostly clr night ahead as high level clouds assctd with an upr level trof moves across the area. Given the higher dew point temps, could see some ptchy fog ovr the swrn most zones that still have some snow cover, but confidence not high enough to put fog in given the sw wind holding arnd 5 kts. Adjusted temps a bit, especially across the lwr Md ern shore where winds have decoupled. Lows in the 30s except upr 20s across parts of the lwr Md ern shore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short term period generally characterized by dry and gradually warming temperatures. Upper level trough out west will gradually deepen/close off as it lifts onto the plains Sunday...and to the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, SW flow continues as the surface ridge slowly lifts over the local area. Upper low and associated sfc low lifts across the western Great Lakes, with the attendant cold front crossing the area Late Mon night into Tuesday. ECMWF/GFS blend still nicely captures the slower ECMWF and the more progressive GFS. Highs Sunday similar to today...mainly u50s to l60s inland...55 to 60 along the eastern shore. Highs Monday will be a challenge, and partially dependent on clearing low clouds out to begin the day. Highs expected to be in the l-m 60s inland. However, if clearing occurs a bit quicker than modeled, thickness tools and some GEFS/EPS members pointing at potential highs in the u60s to near 70 inland. Lows Monday night remain mild ahead of the front...mainly in the 50s. Rain chances increase quickly after midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning. SHERB/SHERBE (QLCS) parameters continue to point towards potential for another round of sct thunderstorms, or some gusty line segments Monday night. For now, given 06-15z timing will keep thunder mention out. Showers do lift out by midday Tuesday out west, early evening along the coast. Highs Tuesday in the 60s once again, slightly cooler 50s out in the piedmont. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models are in very good agreement in the extended range from 00z Wed through Saturday with the long wave trough pulling out of the Northeastern US Wed and Thursday with a shortwave ridge building in for Friday and Saturday. At the surface, the period begins with NW flow as the surface low over deepens over the nern US. The surface low will lift NE into the Canadian Maritimes by Wed evening. With the NW flow, expect the clouds to clear Tues night into Wednesday but with the cold advection, temperatures will be cooler into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another shortwave will move through the eastern trough on Tuesday and will bring a reinforcing cold front to the area. This will knock temperatures down a couple more degrees on Thursday, but with little moisture expect to see just a few clouds across the northern portion of the CWA. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday night into Friday. The high will remain in place through Saturday before slowly sliding off the coast by late Saturday with SW flow returning. This will allow for good radiation cooling both Thurs and Fri night with temps in the u 20s to l30s Thurs night and low to mid 30s Friday night. For Friday should see lots of sun with highs around the mid 40s over Lower MD and near 50 in southern VA. On Saturday with the return flow the models are indicating return moisture getting in and some showers possible late day, but at this point, not ready to introduce pops so have gone with just slight chance values in the 15 to 20% range. High should continue to modify into the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the 00Z TAF period as SFC high pressure continues to dominate. Winds will be light and variable overnight. Some patchy fog and stratus are possible for the early sunrise period but do not have any confidence about whether it will affect TAF sites. Will leave that decision for later shift. Do not expect it will have significant affect flight restrictions. Outlook: Sfc hi pres settles off the SE coast Sun and Mon w/ SKC and dry conditions continuing. Another night of low clouds/patchy fog possible Monday morning. Otherwise, the next chance for widespread precipitation and flight restrictions comes Monday night with a passing cold front. High pres returns later Tue. && .MARINE... High pressure, centered just off the Southeast US coast will remain in control of the regions weather tonight into Monday with generally light winds and generally benign conditions on the waters. The winds will gradually increase Sunday afternoon into Monday from the SW, but will remain well below SCA levels through Monday evening. By Monday night, the flow will begin to increase again out of the south as a deepening low over the Great Lakes and it associated cold front impact the region. The winds will increase from to around 20 to 25 kt with seas on the coastal waters increasing to around 4 to 6 FT. Once the front clears during the day on Tuesday, the winds will shift to the west and then northwest on Wed and Thursday, as a secondary surge of cold air moves through. Conditions will be close to SCA levels in the NW flow as cold advection develops and allow for more mixing which keeps the wind up. High pressure slides over the area with benign conditions for the end of the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...ALB/JEF MARINE...ESS

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