Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271841 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 241 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SUMMER-LIKE AFTN ACRS FA...MOST INLAND TEMPS IN THE M/U80S W/ U70S-L80S CLOSER TO THE SHORE (ALTHOUGH OCEAN CITY BEACHES STUCK ARND 70F). P/MSTLY SUNNY...W/ SSW WNDS GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH. CU HAS A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS COMPARED TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SBCAPE GENLY AOB 750 J/KG (W/ NO TRIGGER). ATMOS RMNS JUST WARM/STABLE ENOUGH FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD RMN SO THROUGH THE EVE HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS ACRS FA...HOLDING POPS AOB 14% AT THE SHORE. ISOLD SHRAS MAY LINGER OVRNGT...OTRW ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU XPCD AFT 06-08Z/28. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERSISTENCE GENLY CONTG ON THU...THOUGH MDL SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A BIT HIGHER SBCAPE/MLCAPE (AGN AWAY FM THE CST) BY AFTN. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/MCLDY TO START THE DAY...THEN AVGG OUT PSNY...WARM AGAIN W/ 30-40% POPS INLAND...20% AT THE SHORE. LCLLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE PSBL ALG W/ BRIEF GUSTY WNDS FM ANY STMS. HI TEMPS THU IN THE M/80S...W/ EXCEPTION TO 70S AT THE SHORE. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS FAR NNE COUNTIES FOR THE DAY...WHILE RMNG UP ELSW. HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY...SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA (10-20% POPS ELSW). BY SAT...CDFNT FM THE NW APPROACHES...THOUGH RMNS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY EFFECT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY AND 15-25% POPS INLAND...10% AT THE CST. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS M60S- ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ON AVG. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HI PRES HAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE NRN MID-ATLC CST THIS AFTN...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WAS RESULTING IN S-SW WINDS OF 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT IN SOME SPOTS. SCT TO BKN CU (4000-7000 FT) WAS OVR THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS OVR INLAND NE NC. ISLTD-WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNG AT RIC/SBY...OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THAT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW/NRN COUNTIES ON THU...BEFORE WASHING OUT. MORE HI PRES SETS UP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST FRI THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW/N LATE SAT/SAT NGT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE SUBSIDING S-SW WINDS OVER THE WATER...DROPPING AOB 15 KT. WAVES AVG 2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SE CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER EVENING OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT GRADIENT WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS (TUES NIGHT) MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. TEMP ADVECTION IS ALSO NEUTRAL. HAVE CAPPED WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT AS A RESULT...REMAINING SUB-SCA. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THURS AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SLY WINDS AVG 10-15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA THURS-FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...RELAXING THE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SELY THURS NIGHT-FRI...AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLY WINDS AOB 15 KT PERSIST OVER THE WATER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...REACHING THE WATERS SUN NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.