Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171857 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop through the region tonight bringing in cooler air for the start of the work week. A stronger cold front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in for mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Cold front just entering the NW part of the forecast area. Few radar returns over SE VA/NC NC likely virga with very dry air closer to the surface. Small chances for showers across far SE VA and NE NC later tonight along and just west of the cold front as some additional moisture advects northward. However, HREF probs generally 20-30% so will simply go with isolated or scattered showers late tonight in this region. Otherwise, will keep partly to mostly cloudy and dry for the reminder of the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Behind the cold front it will be cooler on Monday with generally decreasing clouds. The main trough aloft currently over the upper Great Lakes will dig into the middle Atlantic on Monday night. Again, there may be just enough moisture for a isolated to scattered showers in SE VA/NE NC Monday night, but otherwise it will stay dry. Much colder though for Monday and especially Tuesday as 850mb temps drop to nearly -10c by Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the mid 50s to around 60 on Monday with low to mid 50s on Tuesday. Winds will turn to the NW tonight and then become a little gusty tomorrow with a few gusts up to 20 mph especially close to the coast. Perhaps gustier Mon night and especially Tuesday as the upper short wave aloft moves through. Would not be shocked to see gusts to 20-30 mph on Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... The middle of the week generally looks quiet. Colder temps from Mon and Tuesday rebound quickly. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week (near normal) most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through Wed night. Highs will be well into the 60s for most areas on Wednesday. Behind this cold front, models quickly diverge on the southern stream system for the weekend. The 00z and 06z GFS are faster and further west, leading to rain moving into the area as early as Friday, with low pressure tracking right along the coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and the associated AIFS is slower and further east, with the best rainfall confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance shows those solutions and everything in between. In summary, the confidence in the rainfall chances for next weekend are lower than usual. There seems to be a model consensus of the best probability of precip being on Saturday and across east/SE VA and NE NE. Have opted to maintain chance pops across the entire region starting Friday night and maintaining those through Saturday night. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday as well although the ECMWF solution would be quite wet for Sunday (even though the associated AIFS is dry). Guidance spread in guidance is quite large for the weekend owing to the uncertainty of the evolution of the weekend system. NBM consensus suggests highs to stay below normal from Thu-Sun, but the range is generally from the low/mid 50s-mid 60s so the temperature forecast for the weekend remains an uncertain one as well.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... VFR expected through the period. High clouds today will lower some tonight as a weak disturbance and cold front moves through. May also be a few showers in SE VA/NE NC but not enough confidence to include in the terminals. W to SW winds will gust to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon, then the winds become northwesterly behind the cold front. May see some gusts of 15-20kt close to the coast on Monday, but winds inland should not be as gusty. Outlook...A few showers possible Mon night in SE VA/NE NC, but flight restrictions not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period.
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&& .MARINE... As of 700 AM EDT Sunday... Allowing SCA to drop on time for the bay and lower James. Remainder of forecast on track at this hour. Previous discussion... Latest analysis shows 1012+mb sfc low pressure offshore of the southeast coast early this morning. A potent northern stream ~992mb low pressure system was analyzed over eastern Ontario, with the associated strong surface cold front extending from Lake Ontario SSW into the eastern OH and Lower TN River Valleys. Latest obs and buoy reports showing SSW flow 10-20 kt over local waters, highest over the bay, with pressure gradient briefly tightening with weak low pressure sliding across the region this morning. Expect SCA conditions currently in place over the lower James and Ches Bay to quickly ramp down in the wake of this system after 6-7 am, and will therefore extend SCA through 7am for the lower James and lower Bay to match the middle bay zones. Otherwise, no major changes in forecast rationale for today, with winds remaining W-SW 10-15 kt, occasionally gusting to 18-20 kt in the James River and lower bay this afternoon. Waves 1-2 ft, Seas 3-4 ft, subsiding to 2-3 ft by this evening. Winds veer to the N-NW, tonight into early Monday morning, as the pressure gradient tightens once again ahead of the next frontal passage. A brief period of SCA is possible with NW winds over the lower bay. However, SCA headlines are more likely to be needed Monday evening, as a strong cold front drops across the waters. Winds quickly ramp up after 00z/8pm over northern waters, reaching the southern waters by midnight as gusty NW winds bring much cooler air into the region. Wind probs remain low for prolonged gale force gusts (<10%), but quite likely to see solid SCAs appear over the entire area during this timeframe (winds 20-25 kt, gusts to ~30 kt, waves 1-2 ft, building to 2-4 ft Tuesday morning, seas 2-3 ft building to 4-6 ft by Tuesday morning). Cool high pressure builds south of the area Tue night, allowing seas to subside and winds to slowly diminish. SCAs potentially come down by mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with winds to back to the W-SW winds late Tue into Wed. There is the potential for a brief 3-5 hour period of SCA conditions Tue night in the lower bay and lower James River in W-SW flow. Otherwise, more benign conditions develop over the waters Tue night into Wed. Another front drops across the area later Wed aftn, pushing winds back to the NNW Wed night and Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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The cold front which moves through tonight will allow much lower RH values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for Monday and again on Tuesday. Despite deep mixing on Monday, northwest winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier Monday night as colder air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 20-25 mph possible on Tuesday.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MRD MARINE...AM/MAM FIRE WEATHER...MRD

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