Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 052008 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 308 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES. AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP, THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT. WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15 POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049- 063-064-074>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...SAM/TMG AVIATION...MAS/DAP MARINE...MAS

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