Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011941 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 341 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES E-NE ALLOWING FOR YET ANTHR NIGHT FOR STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BAY. BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOWS M50S-L60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND THRU FRI. CARRIED OVER THE PTCHY DRIZZLE / FOG THU MORN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...OTW BCMG PT SUNNY. HIGHS M70S ALONG THE COAST...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. PERSISTANT FCST XPCTD UNTIL FROPA FRI NIGHT SO MORE STRATUS/FOG PSBL FRI MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M50S-L60S. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW APPRCHG CDFRNT DOWN WITH FRI LOOKING DRY UNDER PT SUNNY SKIES. AGAIN...KEPT MORNING FOG OVR THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS M70S COASTAL AREAS...ARND 80 WEST OF THE BAY. FROPA W-E ACROSS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...EXITING OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. DECENT SLUG OF MSTR PROGGED AHEAD OF IT BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SLOWED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY CHC EVENING POPS WEST OF THE BAY...THEN KEPT LIKELY POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT SLGHT CHC THUNDER IN ATTM GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF FROPA. LOWS U50S-U60S. MORNING POPS SATURDAY WITH SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTRN. TUFF CALL ON TMPS AS THE STRNGST CAA HOLDS OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT. WEST (DOWNSLOPING) WINDS ALONG WITH INCRG AMTS OF SUNSHINE HELP BOOST TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING, SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...W/ SHOWER CHANCES TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIMIT SHRA CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY 70-75. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. SCT- BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH DECKS GENERALLY 2-5K FT AGL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON IN LIGHT E-NELY FLOW. SFC WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...RESULTING IN MORE FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH CALM TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT LITTLE DISPERSION MAKES FOG MORE LIKELY AT THE ONSET. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THURS MORNING...IFR STRATUS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IN NE NC...INCLUDING KECG...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN EARLIER ONSET OF IFR STRATUS BEFORE WINDS BECOME CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN FOG. WHILE AREAS OF FOG ARE ANTICIPATED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD IFR...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AT THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...DID TREND TOWARD IFR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KRIC. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE THURS...RESULTING IN MORE DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP ALONG WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... OPTED TO RAISE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE NRN MOST COASTAL ZONE...NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 10 PM EDT FOR 4-5 FT SEAS. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT HAVE RESULTED IN 5 FT SEAS AT BUOY 44009. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISC... N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM MARINE...MAS

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