Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222344 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 744 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE AS OF 730 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO GEORGIA AND CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED. THE RESULT IS AN INFLUX OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS 1026 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST WITH A STATIONARY FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LEADING TO A COOL AND MSTLY CLEAR NGT. DID INCLUDE PRTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC WHERE MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING S/W TROF. NOT ENUF MOISTURE/LIFT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. LGT N WINDS TNGT WITH OVRNGT LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S OVR THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID/UPR 50S NEAR THE CST...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO NE FLOW AND TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR TUE...SFC HI PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A TROF OF LO PRES ALOFT CUTS OFF FM THE MEAN FLOW. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS CUTOFF LO AND AN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING CSTL TROF WILL COMPLICATE THE PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DAYTIME TUE WITH ANY PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE FA. THEN SLOWLY INCREASED POPS FM S TO N TUE NGT THRU WED. 12Z ECMWF...FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW...CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE PRECIP NWD INTO THE AREA...WHILE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS AS IT KEEPS THE CSTL TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE ECMWF. CONTINUE TO THINK ECMWF IS OVERDONE HOWEVER WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SREF TRENDING WETTER...WILL FORECAST AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA WED/WED NGT/THU WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE CST. AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE LO TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE XTNDD PERIOD. NOT QUITE BUYING THE XTNDD WET PERIOD (CUT-OFF LOW) ECMWF HAS PAINTED ACROSS THE AREA (GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND PREVIOUS PERFORMANCES) SO HAVE GONE WITH THE DRYER GFS / CANADIAN SOLN. GIST IS THAT OCEANIC MOISTURE WILL BE BATTLING THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH. LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED...THE HIGH WON OUT EXCEPT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST IN THE SAME MANNER MEANING THE BEST CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE ALONG COASTAL SCTNS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CHES BAY THRU THE WEEKEND. COOLEST DAY FRI. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. 75-80 BOTH SAT & SUN. LOWS M50S-M60S. NEXT TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MTS MON. LOW CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. HIGHS 75-80. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. 15-20KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE ~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