Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280830 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON- TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...SAM

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