Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300719 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina coast this morning, and will slowly track northeast along the coastal Carolina while weakening further through the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate section below for more details. The latest analysis still indicates TD Bonnie located just inland of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to discussions/forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for the track on TD Bonnie. Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will continue to lift NNW along the coast this morning, eventually expanding in areal coverage after 12z this morning, enhanced by upper divergence provided by RRQ of upper jet. Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections this morning. Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely this morning along the coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95). Meanwhile, pops taper back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in the piedmont in expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak subsidence/low level drying advecting in from the west. QPF amounts through this evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser amounts farther inland. Highs today once again variable and clouds/pcpn dependent, but should be held in the mid-upper 70s along the coast/just inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland with lesser pcpn expected. Additional showers expected tonight, with TD Bonnie`s remnants lifting along the Carolina coast tonight. Areal coverage of showers once again diminishes late, becoming focused along the coastal trough over the eastern third of the area. Once again mild/humid with lows in the 60s to near 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW persist Mon night-Wed.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model consensus and NHC forecast centers Tropical Depression Bonnie (or the remnant low) just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. An upstream trough and associated cold front approaches from the west. Will keep mention of chance POPs along the coast, as well the Piedmont as moisture increases from the west. Expect subsidence over central VA and hopes for dry conditions, but will keep slight chance POPs. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night as the approaching trough finally kicks off the coast in advance of the approaching upstream trough. Will keep mention of slight chance POPs, but overall dry conditions expected. The front drops into the forecast area Friday with increasing chances for showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Latest guidance now in good agreement with cutting off mid level energy over the Southern Plains, with the largest height falls over New England. Sensible weather impacts will be a quicker departure of the front off the coast Friday night into Saturday than previously forecast. Will keep mention of chance POPs Saturday, will drying conditions into Saturday night. Only a slight chance POP across the southeast forecast area for Sunday as the front stalls over the Carolinas in westerly flow aloft. Sky generally partly cloudy Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 80`s Thursday and Friday cool only a few degrees into the upper 70`s to low 80`s Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the 60`s. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Circulation and moisture associated with T.D. Bonnie will continue to be the primary weather maker for the next 48-72 hours. Initial surge of shower/tstm activity has cleared all terminals but KRIC, where localized convergence zone will keep precipitation and IFR conditions going for at least another 2 hours. Additional scattered showers moving northward toward KECG, and will affect that terminal through 03Z. biggest questions next 12 hours will be future areal coverage and intensity of precipitation and amount of fog/stratus development overnight. Think IFR will be predominate at KRIC through at least 12Z Monday, as that terminal will be closest to inverted surface trough. Models have been very consistent in bringing stratus into KECG, and have followed previous forecast in that realm. Have also shown an increase in stratus at KPHF/KSBY and KORF, with IFR conditions all 3 terminals overnight. Timing and intensity of precipitation the hardest to pin down, and have used current radar trends, and hi-res model guidance for the next 6-12 hours. Thereafter, think all terminals will slowly become mvfr by mid to late Monday morning. However, airmass will be marginally unstable, which means at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible at any time. Have not tried to time precipitation after 12Z Monday due to more scattered nature, and inconsistency of model guidance. Outlook...low pressure/remnants of Bonnie to the north will slowly move along the north carolina coast through Tuesday. A weak cold front moves across the region Tuesday aftn/night, temporarily shifting deepest moisture to/east of the coast. However the weakening/remnant tropical low pressure system is expected to linger near the Carolina coast through the middle of the week and keep rain chances in the forecast during this time, with highest chances along the coast. A stronger cold front moves into the area on Friday.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers Tropical Depression Bonnie just east of Charleston SC this afternoon. High pressure has pushed well offshore. Obs indicate southeasterly winds around 10 knots. Waves 1- 2 ft and seas 3 to 4 ft. Bonnie is expected to make very little northward progress Monday as a coastal trough sets up along the Mid- Atlantic coast. A wave of low pressure lifts along the front Monday afternoon over the Bay. Winds remain southerly over the waters at or below 15 knots Monday, but become light and variable behind the wave Monday night. TD Bonnie locates over eastern NC Tuesday with flow becoming onshore at or below 10 kt. Waves remain 1-2 ft and seas 3- 4ft. The gradient strengthens Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low locates in the vicinity of the Currituck sound. Onshore flow ramps up to around 15 kt Wednesday, with SCA conditions possible. Seas also build to 4 to 5 ft Weds. Waves 2-3 ft (up to 4 ft mouth of the bay). The low lifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday with flow becoming northerly. A cold front is forecast to reach the waters late in the week into next weekend. Sub-SCA conditions expected. For more information on TD Bonnie, please refer to NHC. && .CLIMATE...
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The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC. Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08"). ...Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond... 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT) 2. 9.13" 1889 3. 8.98" 1873 4. 8.87" 1972 5. 8.67" 1886 6. 8.59" 2003
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MPR/WRS MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...

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