Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260601 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight...then slowly moves offshore Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area Thursday. A cold front stalls north of the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Nearly vertically stacked lo pres making progress N invof coast late this eve. Area of SHRAs has been expanding over ern VA into NE NC past few hours. Have kept PoPs 50-60% until after midnight those areas. As lo pres continues N overnight...area of pcpn expected to pivot and progress NNE...thus have trended PoPs down from SSW to NNE late. Additionally...kept mention of patchy fog...esp as RA winds down. Lows from the m50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low is progged to be east of Cape May NJ by 12Z Wed then slowly pulls NE away from the region as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. Thermal soundings cont to show some mid level moisture trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion aloft, which will help keep clouds around most of the day across eastern zones. Even enough lingering moisture around for sct showers through 15Z or so along the eastern shore. Appears enough subsidence across the west for skies to become partly to mstly sunny after 18Z. Highs 75-80 west of the bay, upr 60s-lwr 70s along the coast. Mostly clr / pt cldy Wed nite. Lows in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Ridge axis slides offshore ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday. Increasing return flow and 850mb temps around +14 to +16C (around +1 standard deviation) result in warm and dry conditions. Highs in the mid 80s west of the bay, upr 70s-lwr 80s eastern shore, cooler at the beaches. Models differ a bit in returning moisture across the mts Thurs nite. Appears a weak trof moves east producing low chc shwrs after 06Z. Lows in the 60s. Weak trof pushes east Fri morning. Will keep slght chc pops thru noon, then dry. Highs in the low to mid 80s except remaining in the 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through the weekend as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the Ern Conus. 850mb temperatures ~18C will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday (75-80F at the immediate coast) after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. A weak front will knock high temperatures down a few degrees Sunday over the Ern Shore, with low 80s expected and mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast. Meanwhile, highs W of the Bay will once again be into the upper 80s. Aftn/evening chances for showers/tstms Saturday/Sunday will be low and mainly aob 20%. A cold front approaches from the W Monday. Forecast highs Monday are in the low/mid 80s after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. 25/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC support the best chc for showers/tstms very late Monday aftn into Monday evening and shifting to the coast late Monday night. Temperatures trend back toward normal Tuesday with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Latest surface analysis centers low pressure just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. The result is ongoing widespread IFR conditions over the region. VFR conditions currently observed across southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina, but expect deteriorating conditions as the low slowly lifts northward. Area of light rain along the coast has reduced visibilities to MVFR. Surface winds have become northwest at or below 10 knots. IFR conditions prevail thru mid morning as the low lifts slowly northward. Light rain wraps around the low, mainly impacting the Northern Neck to Eastern Shore. Have kept mention of patchy fog over the Piedmont and Eastern Shore, but due to stratus and the upper low lifting over the region, expect areas of drizzle to persist through early-mid morning. Expect improving conditions mid to late morning inland as ceilings lift to MVFR and rain/drizzle/fog lift/dissipate. IFR conditions will be slow to improve KSBY as the low slowly lifts northward. Elsewhere, VFR conditions return with a generally broken sky. Surface winds generally out of the west at or below 10 knots. Low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast Thursday as high pressure/fair weather returns to the region. The next cold front stalls north of the region Thursday night/Friday, with only a chance of rain Thursday night. High pressure centers over the western Atlantic this weekend.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows strong sfc low pres near the VA/NC coast. With the low directly over the area, winds have diminished this aftn to mainly sub-sca criteria. Waves and seas remain elevated however, with 4 ft waves expected to continue over the mouth of the Bay for another few hours and seas aoa 5 ft through daytime Wed for southern coastal wtrs and through Wed night for northern coastal wtrs. Also, a high surf advsry will remain in effect for the Lwr Eastern Shore beaches until early this eveng as nearshore waves remain ~8 ft. The sfc low pulls NE of the area late tonight into Wed with winds avgg aob 10 kt and seas slowly subsiding. Quieter marine conditions towards the end of the week with persistent S/SW flow over the area until early next week when the next cold front crosses the region. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Current tidal departures continue to average around 1.0 to 1.5 feet, with strong low pressure pushing up the Mid Atlc coast. With the high tidal anomalies and new moon tomorrow, expect many areas to reach minor flooding tonight. Have hoisted several coastal flood advisories and statements to account for this. Think this tide will have the highest water levels this week, but still cannot rule out some areas getting to minor again Wed/Wed night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ089-093-095>097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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