Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231145 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 745 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the deep south today. A dry cold front will move across the area on Monday...with cool high pressure building across the region through the middle of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest wx analysis features ~1023 mb sfc high pressure centered over LA-MS-AL, ridges ENE to the Carolina coastal Plain. To the north, strong < 980 mb low pressure continues to slide NNW through Quebec. Dry NW flow in place aloft. Clear and cool conditions prevail early this morning with temperatures somewhat variable due to local wind/de-coupling but overall averaging in the upper 30s/lower 40s W of Ches Bay to the mid 40s/around 50 f near the coast and over the eastern shore where winds are generally still 10-15 KT. As far as frost is concerned, some of low lying sheltered areas along and W of I-95 may see patchy frost through the next few hrs with temperatures as low as 35-37 F, but this will not be widespread since temp-dew pt spreads on avg are about 3-5 F and winds of 3-5 KT are seen from time to time (greatest chc for any frost resides over south central VA from FVX to AVC. Otherwise for today, a pleasant day on tap under sunny/mostly sunny skies with west winds to avg 10-15 mph (some aftn gusts to 20-25 mph, but not nearly as windy as Sat). By tonight, a fast moving upper disturbance moves ESE from the upper midwest to the NE states with an associated sfc low over southern MI as of 00Z to southern New England by 12Z/Mon morning. This will bring a shift in winds to the SW tonight, along with enough mixing for a milder night. Lows to avg in the upper 40s interior south to 50-55 F across the N and near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry conditions continue Mon/Tue as the sfc low pushes off the New England coast, pushing a cold front through the local area on Mon. Downslope warming will allow for the best CAA to hold off until Monday Night, so even as winds shift to the NW, expect slightly warmer temps on Monday compared to Sunday (highs around 70 F N to the mid 70s S). May see a little more in the way of scattered aftn cu on Mon, but mostly sunny overall. More likely to decouple Monday night...but the overall atmosphere will not be cold enough for anything more than patchy frost across the interior...but most likely not anything widespread with temps dropping into the upper 30s across the piedmont. Sunny but cooler on Tue as 850mb temps drop back to +4C to +6c with highs in the upper 50s NE to the lower-mid 60s SW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong canadian high pressure ridges down into the Mid Atlc region Tue ngt into Wed ngt, as the center of the high moves toward eastern Canada. While dry, the GFS/ECMWF show some potential warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer by Wed morning, with the potential for a fair amount of mid level cloud cover associated with this so have bumped sky cover up to partly cloudy for Wed. Dry but cool conditions to prevail. Lows Tue ngt in the mid-upper 30s to lower 40s most places (potential for patchy frost along/W of the I-95 corridor). Highs on Wed ranging fm the upper 50s N to lower 60s S, but could be even cooler if more clouds prevail with shallow mixing under the sfc high. Lows Wed ngt in the 40s to arnd 50 F. Low pressure will then track thru the Great Lakes and into nrn New England Thu thru Fri. That low will pull a cold front acrs the area and off the coast Thu evening thru Fri morning. At this time, have 20-30% pops for showers late Thu thru Fri morning. High pressure will return for later Fri thru Sat. Highs will range thru the 60s on Thu. Lows Thu ngt in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Fri and Sat will range fm the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Fri ngt ranging fm the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A quiet TAF period with mainly clear skies and westerly winds to avg 10 KT or less through mid morning, increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT from 15-21Z today (gusting to 25 KT at KSBY). OUTLOOK...A dry cold front passing through the region on Monday will shift winds back to the NW, but dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail. Dry/VFR conditions to persist through mid week with a chance of showers approaching from the west late Thursday. No significant morning fog is expected through midweek but there may be fog around sunrise Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Winds continue to diminish across the marine area this morning as high pressure nudges in from the WSW. Have cancelled the SCA for the rivers/Currituck Sound this morning...and have replaced the Gale Warning for the northern coastal waters with an SCA. Will be able to cancel the SCA for the Bay and southern coastal waters by 1pm if not sooner. The SCA for the northern coastal waters continues til 4 pm. Expect to have an 8-12 hr period of sub-SCA conditions on the Bay/Sound and coastal waters before the next round of SCA conditions develop this evening and tonight in advance of the next cold front that crosses the waters on Monday. SW winds 15-25 KT tonight will become W-NW 15-25 KT on Monday. Some gusts to 30 kt will be possible over the coastal waters. Winds on the rivers generally remain 10-15 KT. Waves 2-3 ft and possibly up to 4 ft tonight. Seas 3-5 ft. With ongoing SCAs have opted not to issue next round of SCAs for the event tonight/Monday...and will wait until later this morning/afternoon to do so. Winds diminish Monday afternoon then briefly reach SCA criteria again Monday night. High pressure builds in from the northwest Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MRD LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...JDM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.