Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270323 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1023 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SCT-BKN CIRRUS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL STREAM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT...THE CIRRUS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH FROM ITS MOST CURRENT POSITION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN FORECAST PER THIS EXPECTED TREND. OVERALL...THE CIRRUS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LOWS AROUND 30 INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR SE VA/NE NC COASTAL LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY. LIMITED MIXING AND A LIGHT SW WIND IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY, THOUGH WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAXIMA ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY, OR UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND, MID TO UPPER 50S COASTAL ZONES AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. GRIDS WILL AVERAGE OUT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, THOUGH WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOWERING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AND SAT NGT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOWS SAT NGT MAINLY IN THE 40S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE TN VLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY, DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POP INTO CHC RANGE LATE SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH INITIAL BATCH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH RAIN REMAINING LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE BUMPED POP INTO 50-60% RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH, TAPERING BACK TO 30-40% SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. POPS INCREASE TO LKLY RANGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL HANDLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENTLY. CMC IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN EITHER THE 12Z/26 ECMWF OR GFS. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE IN DEPICTING BEST FORCING/UPPER SUPPORT SLIDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF ON THE ORDER OF BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. KEPT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH ONGOING CLOUDS/PCPN...IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE COASTAL PLAIN. SFC LOW SLIPS OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. POPS RAMP DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING AT LOW LVLS MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A MILD START ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MIXING WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHALLOW DIURNAL CURVE, W/HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH, UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /NEXT THURSDAY/ WITH REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN. A COLD ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...THEN IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE /A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 40S. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT GOING INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ENE/NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS/MS VLY. REGARDLESS...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION IS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IS SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND COULD PRODUCE SOME BKN CIRRUS FOR RIC/PHF/SBY...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED CIRRUS IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY POTENTIAL RESTRICTION COULD BE SOME GROUND FOG AT PHF AS TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY AT 6 DEGREES AND THE SENSOR DID REPORT A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR FOG LAST NIGHT. MOSTLY LIKE THIS WOULD BE A SHORT TEMPORARY CONDITION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE...BUT COULD NEED TO ADD IT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF IFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. && .MARINE... FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS... WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE BAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE SURGE WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN FROM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...ESS MARINE...WRS EQUIPMENT...

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