Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020628 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 228 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY... MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A 20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR 90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
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&& .MARINE...
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CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 ORF: 97/1993 SBY: 97/1980 ECG: 96/1943 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB/MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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