Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151739 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 139 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CONTD AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM NE NC NWD THROUGH CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC OVER THE ERN SHORE. XPCG MCLDY SKY THROUGH ERLY AFTN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA...BEFORE BECOMING PSNY LATE...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE...AND PSNY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WNDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING IN WARMER/A BIT MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO L80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC. COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA (THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW 3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY 16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10 KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ALB/TMG AVIATION...BMD/MAS MARINE...MAS

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