Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301956 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 356 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. ALSO FOR DORCHESTER COUNTY MD AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NC. LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND AND THE NORTHERN NECK IN VIC OF THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THESE CELLS...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON...AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST FIGHT THE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WELL MIXED BL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THRU THE AFTERNOON. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/UVM ALSO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. PV ANOMALY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFTS INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. LLJ ALSO KICKS IN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE (ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY N OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING...SO ONLY A ~20% POP IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ~30% CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE FRONT SAGS S INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z/30 NAM IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE THE 00/30 GFS/ECMWF/CMC LAG THE ENERGY TO THE W UNTIL AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE LATER CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAS BEEN FAVORED...WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS FORECAST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE BRINGING 40-50% INTO WRN PORTIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH 30-40% FARTHER E. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S N...TO AROUND 90 SE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD. MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEGINNING TO NOTICE SOME CU/SC PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY...BUT CHANCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW AND COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO ~20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTN. CURRENTLY NOTING NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AFTER 23Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY TO THE W OF KRIC. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ANY ONE TERMINAL AND WITH ANY CONVECTION STILL AT LEAST 6 HRS OFF, HV HELD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT ON SW FLOW, AND DROPPED DOWN TO LOW END VFR NEAR MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...A FRNTAL SYSTM SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY, BUT THE PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION AND CHCS FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS COME THURSDAY AFTN/FRIDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...
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WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS/MAM MARINE...MPR

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