Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010843 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN. CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN HRS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS... SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST. AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2 IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL. EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS SERN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT. ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA. COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY 45-50. HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR 30 SE. WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE. LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR 15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015: RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1934. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048- 049-060>064-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD/JDM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...LB

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