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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130451
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1251 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER LATEST SFC OBS...COLD FRONT HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS HAS ALSO
ALIGNED ALONG THE COAST AS OF 1030 PM...BUT WILL QUICKLY PUSH
OFFSHORE BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BIGGEST
IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SURGING COLD/DRY AIRMASS. TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER THE PIEDMONT
(AFTER BEING IN THE MID 60S LATE THIS AFTERNOON) AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S. STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NWLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
FRONT OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEIGHT RISES (10+ MB/3 HRS) WILL LIKELY RELAX THE WINDS SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...KEEPING INLAND AREAS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN
NECK...VIRGINIA BEACH AND THE MD/VA ERN SHORE FOR GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH. CLOUDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY CLEAR WEST TO EAST...WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY THURS MORNING. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP WITH PLUNGING TEMPERATURES...LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE MID 20S NW TO MID 30S SE (NEARLY -1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE REGION DURING THU...THEN SLIDES OUT TO
SEA DURING FRI. SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY CHILLY ON THU WITH HI
TEMPS ONLY RANGING FM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD THU NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.
MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI...WITH SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH HELPING TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S.

MAINTAINING DRY WX FRI NGT AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FM THE NW LATE SAT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS FRI NGT IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...AND HIGHS ON SAT IN THE
LWR TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE NC COAST SUNDAY AND PULLS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND PULLS OFFSHORE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SPATIAL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF...BUT OVERALL
AGREE ON THIS GENERAL PATTERN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME IS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...RAIN
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF A MIX OF RA/SN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A
MODERATING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS SW FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH CLRG SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW AC. VFR CNDTNS
EXPECTED THRU FCST PRD. MAIN FCST CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS
THROUGH THE ERLY AFTRN. PRS GRADIENT NEXT SVRL HRS CONTINUES THE
GUSTS BTWN 25-35 KTS...THEN DIMINISHS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 18Z. WNDS
QUICKLY DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS BY 00Z.

DRY/VFR WX PREVAILS THRU SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO CAPE COD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA
AND VIGOROUS PRESSURE RISES OF ~7-10MB/3HR OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA/PRESSURE
RISES GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THE
WIND WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE OCEAN/BAY (30-35KT GUSTS UP TO
45KT)...WITH 25-30KT GUSTS UP TO 40KT OVER THE SOUND/RIVERS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 7-9FT OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-5FT
NEARSHORE...AND 4-5FT WAVES. CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
OCEAN BAY/GALE WARNINGS REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE
SOUND/RIVERS RUN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALL GALE FLAGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH SCAS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY/NRN OCEAN ZONES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE N. THIS FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION N-S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A STRONG NNE WIND AND
INCREASED SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..
ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVSRY FOR CAMBRIDGE MD BASED OFF CURRENT OBS
AND FORECASTS APPRCHG MONOR FLOODING FOR THIS MORNINGS (3AM) HIGH
TIDE.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS STRONG COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY NW WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING AS LOW AS
10%-15% WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES SPREADING
OUT OF CONTROL. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...THE FINER FUELS HAVE
DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ON THURSDAY (HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID 40S IN NE NC). AFTER COORDINATION WITH
STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WX
WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR VA AND NE NC COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY. DUE TO
COLDER TEMPS OVER MD...WILL NOT GO WITH A WATCH ATTM IN FAVOR OF
EVENTUALLY PUTTING OUT AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS)
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING (OR LACK THEREOF)...WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR VA AND NC THIS EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ021.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ075>078-085-
     086-098>100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-635>638.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...MPR