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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM/MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MRNG...W/ LO LVL FLO CONTG
FM AN E COMPONENT. PERSISTENT SHRAS/SCT TSTMS INVOF SCNTRL VA
THIS MRNG (SOME WEAKENING NOTED IN PAST 30 MIN). RADAR ACCUMS AVGG
1 TO ABT 4 IN FM PORTIONS OF LUNENBURG INTO WRN MECKLENBURG
COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD CLDNS COVERING THE FA ONCE AGN...AND WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD REST OF TDA...OVERALL POPS TO RMN
AOB 30-40%...HIGHEST PORTIONS OF SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. TEMPS HELD
DOWN AGN TDA...W/ LIMITED SUNSHINE...WILL HAVE HIGHS 80 TO 85F
MOST PLACES (THOUGH NR TERM TEMP GUID DOES SUGGEST THAT SOME
PLACES MAY HAVE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LINGER SOME EVENING POPS OVER THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL SO NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OVERNIGHT FOR MORE THAN 20% POPS.
WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.

DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN ON TUE APPEAR WEAKER THAN MON...AS PIECE
OF SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE NRN MID ATLC COAST. WILL ONLY CARRY
~30% CHC POPS (MAINLY AFTN/EVENING) INLAND AND 20% OR LESS CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUN ON TUE WITH SLOW WARMING
TREND/ HIGHS 85-90 F WELL INLAND TO LWR-MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.

BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS
AND TEMPS RESPONDING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS
TO RMN 20-30% ON WED...HIGHS INTO THE LWR 90S INLAND WITH 85-90F
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER MOIST NE THRU SE FLO WILL CONTINUE OVR THE TAF SITES TODAY
THRU TUE. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME...EXPECT MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY IFR CIGS OVR SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG
EARLY THIS MORNG AND AGAIN EARLY TUE MORNG. ISLTD TO SCTD PCPN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY THIS AFTN AND TUE AFTN.`

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WED
AFTN/EVENG...DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROF AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRIGGER MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THU AFTN INTO THU NGT.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINATION OF WEAK HI PRES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CSTL CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN NE THRU SE
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS THRU TUE. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2
FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FM
THE WNW ON WED...THEN PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE WTRS LATE THU INTO
FRI MORNG. SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WED INTO THU...THEN
BECOMING NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS THU NGT INTO FRI. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG