Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 102103 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 403 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE FA LT THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN OFF THE CST OVRNGT. SCT-BKN CLDNS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...ALG W/ PSBL ISOLD SNSH OR FLURRIES (ESP NRN HALF AND ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE). OTRW...MNLY SUNNY SE...PARTLY SUNNY ELSW W/ SEASONABLY COLD THUS FAR THIS AFTN. A BIT A GUSTY WSW AT TIMES ADDING A BIT OF A CHILL. TEMPS RANGING FM THE U30S-M40S. PARTLY CLOUDY-VRB CLDS THROUGH EARLY TNGT...THEN CLEARING THEREAFTER (LINGER SNSH/FLURRIES INVOF PORTIONS OF ERN SHORE UNTIL AFT MDNGT). LO TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS ACRS THE CNTRL VA PIEDMONT WHERE SKY CLRS EARLIER TO M20S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH ALIGNED ALG THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU. DRY/COLD DP LYRD WNW FLO AS CONDS AVG SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HI TEMPS A TOUCH LWR THAN TDA...RANGING FM THE L-M30S N TO THE M-U30S S. SFC HI PRES OVR THE RGN THU NGT INTO FRI...AS ADDITIONAL UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS OVR THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES. MDLS CONT TO INSIST ON DEVELOPMENT OF WK SFC LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST FRI MRNG...WHICH TRACKS E OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 12Z/10 ECMWF RMNS THE MDL THAT KEEPS MOISTURE W/ THAT SYS S OF THE FA. WILL CONT TO BLEND THE NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS A PD OF -SN PSBL ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BTWN 15-18Z/12). MDL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND XPCG SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF ATTM AOB .10" ON AVG. SOME SCT -SN PSBL ELSW AS TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSW. SN ACCUMS RIGHT NOW AN FCST TO BE AN IN OR LESS. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M30S MOST PLACES. VRB CLDS/PSBL ISOLD -SNSH FRI EVE...THEN STRONG CDFNT TO CROSS THE FA LT FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR. PTNTL FOR BAY/OCN INDUCED SNSH...OTRW SKC-PARTLY CLOUDY SAT W/ GUSTY NW WNDS (TO 25-30 MPH). HI TEMPS FM THE U20S NW TO 30-35F ELSW (WIND CHILLS AVGG IN THE TEENS TO L20S). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO - 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE REGION LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 8000-10000 FT CIGS AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED EARLY THU. W WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ACRS THE REGION TODAY INTO TNGT. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO FRI MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. SHRTWV ENERGY IN WNW FLO ALOFT COUPLED WITH WEAK LO PRES MOVNG ACRS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE CST...COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES (LWR CIGS/VSBYS) FM MIDDAY FRI INTO EARLY FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SRN VA AND NE NC. && .MARINE...
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THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MODEST CAA. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WNW FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT OVER THE RIVERS. SEAS GENERALLY AVERAGE 4-5FT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ALL COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (LATER THIS MORNING OCEAN/LOWER BAY...TO THROUGH THE AFTN ACRS THE MID/UPPER BAY). WITH WNW FLOW...DEPARTURES ARE FALLING...NOW AVG AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS IS STILL ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE UPCOMING CYCLE...ALTHOUGH MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND RIVERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ077-078-085-099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG/JEF MARINE...AJZ HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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