-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
343
FXUS61 KAKQ 030631
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
231 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push through the area this
afternoon, and will be very slow to push through southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into tonight.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
lingering through the evening across southeast zones. Mainly dry
conditions are expected late in the week into next weekend as
high pressure brings lower humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Turning drier behind the front overnight and into Thursday. An
  isolated afternoon/evening shower or storm cannot be ruled out
  over the northern OBX and along/north of the Albemarle sound.

Evening surface analysis depicted a cold front that has become
nearly stationary across the region with the main rain having
ended across the area. However, a few isolated showers will
remain possible tonight mainly across far SE VA/NE NC as the
cold front struggles to completely clear the area. Clearing
skies expected by tonight with lingering clouds across the SE
through sunrise. Forecast lows are in the upper 60s to lower 70s
as dew points drop into the ~mid 60s. Patchy fog is also
possible across the Piedmont as skies begin to clear as well as
SE VA/NE NC (where heavy rain fell today).

Much drier and warmer Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Highs
warm into the upper 80s to around 90 F under a mostly sunny sky.
However, a secondary cold front is expected to drop in from the N
later in the day Thursday. While it should be predominantly dry,
there could be a shower/storm or two in the later afternoon and
evening hours. NBM PoPs are mainly dry (outside of near the
Albemarle Sound), but a slight chc could need to be introduced if
coverage looks a tad higher. Lows Thursday night again in the upper
60s-lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, warm, and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July
  holiday into the first part of the weekend.

A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper trough axis slides through and high pressure
builds to our N. Highs temperatures range from the mid/upper
80s to around 90 F, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light
onshore flow. Dew points range through the 60s (potentially down
into the upper 50s at peak heating across the northern 1/2 of
the CWA), so it should feel quite comfortable. Mainly clear
Friday night with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (lower 70s
SE coast).

Into the holiday weekend, high pressure looks to remain N of the
area. Meanwhile, a stacked sfc/upper low offshore of the SE coast
should continue to spin through the weekend. While this system has a
moderate (40%) probability of taking on some tropical/subtropical
characteristics, most guidance keeps it quite weak and S of the
area through the weekend. With the high N and low S, easterly
onshore flow of ~10 mph should keep temps near normal for early
July. Highs in the mid- upper 80s, with near 90 F possible in
the central VA/urban RIC corridor. Dew points in the upper 50s
to lower 60s will make for a very comfortable airmass for July.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A chance of showers across southeast VA and northeast NC
  Sunday. Otherwise, mostly to partly sunny and warm.

- Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with
  afternoon/evening storm chances.

A gradual increase in humidity starts Sunday, and especially Monday-
Tuesday, along with chances of diurnal showers/tstms well in advance
of another cold front moving into the Great Lakes. PoPs for Sunday
are 20-30% as some moisture pushes in from the low to our
south. While any appreciable impact still looks to stay well S
of the area, it is worth keeping an eye on this in case it
messes with the cloud cover or temp forecast (given it likely
undercuts the building ridge). Still, Sunday still looks quite
pleasant and far from a washout (for now). The aforementioned
low or trough axis lingers offshore into early next week before
moving off to our NE midweek. Daily high temperatures also warm
back into the lower 90s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some lingering IFR/LCL LIFR along the coast to begin the 00z/03
TAF period, but generally noting showers quickly weakening and
exiting offshore. Gradual clearing continues over the next few
hours, which should clear the way for some fog potential,
especially after midnight, especially SSW of KORF and at KECG.
Have allowed for MVFR VSBY/CIGs at PHF and ORF late tonight
with IFR/low-end MVFR hanging on near ECG toward sunrise,
clearing shortly thereafter. Winds are generally light and
variable and should remain that way through much of the TAF
period, becoming WNW 5-10 kt by mid-morning Thursday, with some
afternoon seabreeze accounted for at KORF/KECG. Slight chance of
an afternoon shower or storm at KECG, but chances/areal coverage
are much too low to account for in the terminal forecast at
this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thursday afternoon through
Sunday as drier air builds into the region behind the cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions today and through the weekend.

Benign conditions continue today as high pressure slides in behind a
cold front. Latest obs reflect westerly winds at 5-10kt. Seas are 2-
3ft and waves are around 1ft. Once high pressure slides overhead
later this morning, winds become lighter and variable. A sea breeze
looks to develop this afternoon. By the evening, light winds become
southwesterly. Another cold front crosses the waters early Friday
morning. Winds turn to the NNW behind it and increase to 10-15kt.
Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20kt Fri morning, especially in the
lower Ches Bay. Winds then turn onshore Fri evening and remain
onshore through the weekend. Wind speeds will typically be 5-10kt,
but will likely see slight increases in the evenings. Next chance
for SCAs would be Sunday evening with SE winds, but looks rather
marginal so far (~15kt with gusts ~20kt). Seas will remain at 2-3ft
today through the weekend. Waves will be 1-2ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...RMM/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...