Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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316 FXUS61 KAKQ 271755 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 155 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary lifts north of the local area early this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Late morning analysis indicating that the sfc boundary is washing out over the area, with some weak low level convergence remaining over mainly far northern portions of the CWA. Still enough mid-upper level energy keeping widely scattered light showers ongoing over interior southeast and eastern VA, though area obs generally showing rainfall amounts to be a trace to a few hundredths so will continue to keep PoPs only in the 20-40% range through early aftn. Fog has finally lifted across the northern Piedmont areas and winds now avg around 10 kt from the SSW most locations. Currently mostly cloudy except for more sun near coastal northeast NC. Area 12Z soundings show fairly abundant low level moisture and already seeing cumulus developing in the Piedmont where the showers have ended. Expect some sunshine this aftn, but overall sky conditions will tend to be more BKN rather than SCT. All zones will be in the warm sector. Aside from locally cooler readings at the immediate coast... most areas will rise into the mid to upper 70s. Not much forcing for widespread precip after this initial area of showers dissipates near the coast after 18Z, but will carry 20% PoPs for late day showers (tstms well inland) given the decent amount of moisture and ML Capes rising to 500-1000 J/Kg. Shear is minimal and lapse rates are quite weak so even if some convection does develop, expect any storms to be weak/short-lived. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging begins to break down tonight...and after a period of mainly dry conditions, PoPs will ramp back up after 04-06Z as the front approaches from the W. Will carry ~40% chc PoPs west of I-95 after midnight to 20% to 30% or less farther east and southeast. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front arrives late in the day. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F. There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas. There will be some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional shear increases and sfc dew pts will be around 60F. Overall not looking like widespread severe wx as there is still some question as to how much storm organization there will be as latest models are hinting at a lot of clouds and an earlier arrival of precip by late morning. SPC has area in marginal risk for severe wx and this seems about right given the current parameters depicted in the models. Will linger the chance PoPs through the early evening W and to around midnight along the coast. Drying after midnight with lows mainly 50-55 F. Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed as drier air moves in from the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat night. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Generally VFR ceilings are expected for this afternoon and into the first half of the night for the forecast area. Only a few scattered sprinkles are left across eastern parts of the area this afternoon, rain coverage is not high enough to include in the TAF. Any sprinkles/light showers should continue to dissipate through the afternoon. Abundant low level moisture across the region has allowed for BKN cumulus to develop with bases around 3500 feet. Any cumulus should diminish after sunset. Skies are expected to become mainly clear for the first half of the night with only some high clouds. MVFR ceilings and potentially patchy fog may develop late tonight and into early tomorrow morning, especially at SBY and RIC, due to the moist airmass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Tuesday, with the potential for a few storms to be severe Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions will continue into Tuesday night due to the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible once again Wednesday morning due to low ceilings and the potential for fog. Dry/VFR conditions return on Wednesday as winds shift to the north. The next storm system is expected to approach the area Friday bringing the next chance of adverse aviation conditions.
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&& .MARINE... Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern coastal waters and the upper Bay early this morning. Based on trends in the latest obs will continue the Dense Fog Advisory north of Windmill Pt thru 7 am and also for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island. A frontal boundary remains draped across the Delmarva early this morning with reduced visibility in light onshore E/NE flow. South of the boundary winds are S at 10 kt or less. The frontal boundary will eventually get pulled back north of the Delmarva later this morning with improving visibility across the northern waters...and winds becoming S 5 to 15 kt all areas for the rest of today as sfc high pressure lingers off the SE coast. Winds S to SW 10 to 15 kt continues tonight and Tue morning. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. Low pressure and its associated cold front will across the local area late Tue into early Wed morning. Winds S/SW 10-15 kt Tue aftn will become W/NW 10-15 kt Tue night then N-NE 10-15 kt on Wed. Do not expect SCA conditions to be met thru Wed. High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu with NE winds 15 kt or less, becoming E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-3 ft thru the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJB MARINE...JDM

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