Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 292058 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1006 MB LO PRES CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING DOWN TO THE SSW. SOME LIGHT PCPN IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT NOW OVER WRN VA. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT SOME RAIN AND SLEET IS PSBL OVER WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU ERLY THIS EVENG. THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE AREA LATE TNGT/FRI MORNG...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN OVR ERN AREAS DUE TO THE FRNT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DESPITE LITTLE MOISTURE. LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S. FOR FRI...DRY WX AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE FRNT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND STRONG HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. MAIN STORY ON FRI WILL BE THE WIND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NE AREAS AND 30-35 MPH SW AREAS. WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LWR 30S MUCH OF THE DAY OVER MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY WX CONTINUES INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE SFC HI SLIDES IN FM THE W AND BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. EXPECT WLY FLOW SAT WITH A MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S UNDER CONTINUED CAA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUN THRU MON. KEY PLAYERS ARE AN APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROF OVR THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER MEXICO. SUBSEQUENT SFC LO DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE SUN. THE SFC LO WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT...WITH ITS EXACT TRACK IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING PTYPES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AS FOR 12Z DATA...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND TAKES THE LO DIRECTLY OVER VA...WHILE THE CMC HAS SHIFTED SOUTH LEADING TO A COLDER SOLUTION. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME RUN- TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES WITH THESE MODELS AS WELL. A BLENDED SOLUTION CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RA/IP/SN MIX AT THE ONSET SUN MORNG OVER N AND W AREAS...BCMG MSTLY RAIN SUN AFTN/EVENG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER NRN AREAS. AS THE LO PASSES E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THICKNESSES WILL FALL AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER MORE OF THE AREA...WITH STILL PLAIN RAIN FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. THE PCPN THEN ENDS FM W TO E ON MON WITH HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE LO 30S N TO LO 40S S UNDER STRONG CAA. THE GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS STORM IS THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FAVORS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA WITH SOME WINTRY PCPN MIXED IN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER N AND W AREAS. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE OVER WHERE THE RA/SN LINE DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PCPN ASSCTD WITH MON STORM IS OFFSHORE BY 00Z TUE. CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS FA. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S SRN MOST CNTYS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS L-M30S. CLDS INCRS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF NXT SYSTM. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW AS ANY PCPN SHUD STAY S&W OF FA THRU 12Z WED. LOWS MAY OCCUR IN THE EVE THEN STDY OR RISE AFTR MIDNIGHT AS A S WIND DVLPS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S SERN AREAS. MODELS SOLNS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTM. GFS TAKES SFC LOW NE INTO THE GT LAKES RGN WITH THE TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE FA WED NITE. IT ALSO DVLPS A LOW ON SRN END OF BNDRY. THIS ALLOWS SAID BNDRY TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK NE ALONG THE SERN US COAST BUT STAY JUST SOUTH OF AKQ FA. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS MILDER AIR IN AHEAD OF THE BNDRY FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT A MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NITE AS CAA DVLPS BEHIND IT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING INTO THE GT LAKES BUT SHOWS A STRNGR AND WETTER SRN STREAM LOW MOVG NE ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE AWAY FROM RGN THURS. WENT WITH CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED. MAY START OFF AS A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS PIEDMONT ERLY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PCPN MOVES IN. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR A RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO WED NIGHT FOR NOW. THIS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE CALL AND WILL LIKELY ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WHEN THE COLD AIR OVRSPRDS THE RGN. LOWS M20S-L30S. COLD WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST THU MORN. OTW...CLRD AND COLD AS STRNG HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS M30S-L40S. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. A SOUTHERLY WIND AVERAGING 5-10KT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS (CIGS AOA 15KFT). THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHC OF -SHRA MAINLY AT SBY...WHICH COULD END AS A MIX OF -RASN. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS LATER THIS EVE AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA HEADLINE WAS TO ADD THE LWR ZONE AND MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE THE GALES FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS STRNG CAA DVLPS BEHIND THE FRNT AND AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRS APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. WENT AHEAD AND EXTNDD THE GALE HEADLINE THRU SAT MORNING OVR THE MD CSTL WTRS AS THE STRNG GUSTS WILL BE SLOWER TO DMNSH. WIND GUSTS 40-45 KTS ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WITH 35-40KTS FRTHR SOUTH. SEAS & WAVES RESPOND TO THESE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-10 FT WITH WAVES IN CHES BAY 4-5 FT. GIVEN THE TMPS/WIND GUSTS AND CRNT WTR TMPS...PER COORD WITH PHL... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY FOR THE CSTL WTRS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. THIS IS WHERE SOME MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY. KEPT LIGHT ICING MENTIONED FRTHR SOUTH & IN THE CHES BAY ATTM. WINDS DMNSH TO SCA SAT THEN QUICKLY DMNSH BLO SCA LVLS BY SAT EVE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT. NEXT LOW CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANTHR CAA SURGE SEEN BEHIND THIS SYSTM MON AFTRN AND NIGHT. KEPT WINDS IN SCA RANGE AND CAPPED GUSTS ACROSS CSTL WTRS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652. GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652- 654. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ656-658. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...MPR

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