Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 110204 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1004 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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***NWS SURVEY TEAM WILL SURVEY THE DAMAGE IN VA BEACH TO DETERMINE THE NATURE OF THE DAMAGE*** ***NWS CONFIRMS STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IN THE CAPRON AREA AND ACROSS SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY*** LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SETUP ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE EAST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NECK. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO LAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK THROUGH 1 AM OR SO THEN THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MAINTAINED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SE VA/NE NC AND WITH EXPECTATION THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN NC COULD LIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE AREA. WV SATELLITE REVEALS SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PV ANOMALY PUSHING EAST FROM KY...PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. IN ADDITION...UPPER JET IS SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SSW INTO THE MID ATLC...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH STRONG RRQ FORCING. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH CHC POPS FARTHER WEST (MAINLY FOR ACTIVITY OVER NRN VA AS IT DRIFTS ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS). SHEARED OUT S/W ENERGY TRACKS E OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN SE VA/NE NC EVEN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS SE VA/NE NC. LOWS MID-UPPER 60S FAR NW TO AROUND 70 F SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SYSTEM LINGERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTN. STILL ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA FRI AFTN AND WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINING ACRS THE FAR SE ZONES WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS (HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS). APPEARS MUCH DRIER PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL VA SO HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO 20-40% IN THESE AREAS FOR MAINLY AFTN STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S E TO UPPER 80S ALONG/WEST OF I-95. SCT EVENING POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE FRI EVENING...OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID. LOWS MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LWR 70S FAR SE VA. MODELS INDICATING THE FRONT WASHES OUT/DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES. KEPT A 20% POP OVER THE FAR NW AND IN SE VA/NE NC...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U80S. DRY SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. RATHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PUSH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE STATES SUN...WILL CARRY 20% POPS FOR AFTN TSTMS MOST AREAS. HIGHS 85-90 F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WET CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM AS MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE LOCKED WEST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AS AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS...HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE (MODEL DERIVED PRECIP WATERS ~ 2+ INCHES)...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON ALONG A SHARPENING LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH/BOUNDARIES...CLOSEST TO THE BEST INSTABILITY. STILL SOME SUBSIDENCE/WARM AIR ALOFT VISIBLE IN SOUNDINGS...SO WILL LEAVE AT LOW END CHANCE. HIGHS MON EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 100 INLAND. STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUES...EJECTING THE LOW NEWD INTO SE CANADA. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES-TUES NIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE CLOSED LOW...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE FRONT AND STILL BEING DAY 6...WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE > 2500 J/KG. ANOMALOUS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT THE ERN PORTION LIKELY STALLING OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS WEDS ACROSS THE SE AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TSTMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST WHILE AN BROAD AREA OF STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NC ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND ALL OF THE VA AND MD EASTERN SHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS RIC...BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ORF AND PHF BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN. AT RIC AND SBY CONDITION COULD BECOMES IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LESS RAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MVFR AND IFR FOG/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED MOIST FLOW. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG A SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONT FRIDAY AFTN. FRONT CROSSES AREA BY FRIDAY...LEAVING FRI NGT/SAT DRY ATTM. NEXT FRONT COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. && .MARINE... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL VA INTO THE DELMARVA HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE WATERS AND AOB 10 KT IN THE NRN BAY/COASTAL WATERS/ERN VA RIVERS. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW WILL MOSTLY BECOME SLY TONIGHT-FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU FRI...SLIDING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT. SLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLY FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TOWARD 4 FT...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE 5 FT SEAS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON-MON NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATERS TUE-TUES NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...DAP/JAO MARINE...SAM

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