Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060550 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE. CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM. RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6: RIC...15 IN 1960 ORF...20 IN 1901 SBY...13 IN 1968 ECG...20 IN 1960
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630- 631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS/LSA MARINE...MAS/TMG HYDROLOGY...

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