Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231936 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA. SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING 3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656- 658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...DAP MARINE...MAM

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