Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280039 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 839 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls near the Virginia-North Carolina border tonight through Wednesday morning. Low pressure tracks north across the North Carolina and Virginia piedmonts Wednesday afternoon and night. An upper level low slowly drops south from the Great Lakes region resulting in unsettled weather conditions into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Quick update to lower PoPs across interior portions of FA. Keeping PoPs 50-70% from VA Eastern Shore to coastal NE NC until mid-late evening. Partial clearing also will occur inland...especially along-W of I 95 corridor. Previous discussion: Latest MSAS showing the cold front basically splitting the fa in half NE- SW. Band of convection ahead of it will continue to move east and off the coast this evening. Pcpn has basically ended across the piedmont with partial clearing across wrn zones. Boundary progged to stall along the VA/NC border tonight as low pressure across the NC piedmont begins to track NE after 06Z. Pops will be based off of radar trends but the jist will be for higher pops this evening across the SE. Some weak lift noted behind the boundary after midnight so kept low chc pops. Attention then goes to fog development as the latest guidance is showing the potential for widespread fog after midnight. Added areas of fog to the grids after 06Z. Lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Interesting forecast for Wed and Wed nite. Potent s/w energy (triple point low) progged to slowly track north along the I95 corridor. After morning shwrs and areas of fog, expect nmrs shwrs and tstrms to develop. The strength of the storms will likely hinge on whether any sun will aid in heating. SPC has areas along and west of the I95 corridor in marginal risk with the threat being damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy downpours are also possible. Will carry likely pops after 18Z. Highs from the mid 70s NW to lwr 80s SE. Lows in the mid 60s NW to near 70 SE. Upper level (cut off) low progged to slowly sink south from the Great Lakes region Thurs then stall across KY Thurs nite before beginning to slowly drift NNE Fri. Strong and persistant onshore flow around this feature will add to the available moisture and cool pool instability to produce widespread showers with embedded tstrms. Upslope conditions will likely produce pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across northern most zones on northward. Thus, kept chc to likely pops going for most of Thurs through Friday. Highest pops across the north. Highs Thu in th mid 70s to lwr 80s. Lows in the 60sto near 70 SE. Highs Fri 75-80. Total QPF west of the Ches Bay expected in the 2 to 4 inch range with 1/2 to 1.5 inches along the coast. No flood headlines anticipated at this time given the time frame that the rainfall will occur over. Significant rises in river levels are possible later this week if we do get the expected QPF across the headwaters. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period starts off Fri night/Sat with an upper-level cutoff low and associated sfc low centered over the OH Valley. Better rain chances will stay north of the area, but included at least a 20-30% chance of showers especially over ne areas where the highest moisture will be located. Mainly dry conditions thereafter into Sun and Mon as the cutoff low weakens and slides ne into Canada. As for temps, highs will generally be in the mid/upper 70s with lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Piedmont to the mid/upper 60s near the coast. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front has continued to slowly push through the region and is now located near the coast. IFR conditions continue to be present at SBY due to residual showers/lower ceilings (600ft), added a TEMPO group for to take account for this. Also added a TEMPO group at RIC for the possibility of lower ceilings over the next few hours. VFR conditions are expected at the remaining TAF sites for the first half of the night. Tricky forecast is in store for the rest of the night with the potential for fog across the area. Introduced IFR conditions by 04Z for SBY and 06Z for RIC due to highest confidence of fog potential. Brought MVFR into all other TAF sites. Model guidance still hints atthe potential for some locally dense fog towards sunrise. Next batch of precipitation will approach the piedmont as low pressure along the front begins to move north later tonight. Introduced VCSH at RIC after 06Z due to some uncertainty with initial timing and coverage of the showers. Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions expected through the end of the work week as waves of low pressure lift along the cold front. Showers with late day thunderstorms will be possible each day.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary over the local area. The frnt remains in the vicinity through Wed leading to sub- sca conditions with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-4 ft seas over coastal waters. The front then lifts northward Wed night/Thu, and with strengthening high pressure over SE Canada/New England, seas will ramp up. Hoisted a sca for the northern coastal waters for Wed night/Thu with prolonged easterly fetch, which may need to be extended past the fourth period in future updates. 5 ft seas may also possibly affect the southern coastal waters as well. Overall winds will avg 10-15 kt through the period, up to 15-20 kt over northern coastal waters at times. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MAS

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