Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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764 FXUS61 KAKQ 280603 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 203 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region overnight, stalling over the area overnight before weakening. Strong high pressure then prevails just off the Southeast Coast for the rest of Friday through the weekend...bringing warmer and more humid conditions to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Latest Wx analysis reveals surface low pressure over NE OH/NW PA. Surface front remains well west of the area, with 01z mesoanalysis revealing a capped/stable environment over the local area. Have therefore cut back to slight chc T mention overnight. Otherwise, held on to high chc to low end likely POP for scattered showers overnight. However, have slowed timing slightly per radar/Sat data and CAMS are in good agreement in bringing a broken line of showers through the area overnight, which will diminish in areal coverage as it crosses the RIC metro from SW to NE after 03z. Far SE zones stay dry most of the night, with a second area of showers developing after 08z/4 am as the front drops across the piedmont before washing out across the area early Friday morning. QPF overnight on the order of a tenth of an inch or less. Cooled overnight lows by a degree or two given current obs and expectation of SCT showers through the night. Low to mid 60s NW zones...mid to upper 60s SE coastal sections. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The front washes out along the coastal plain Friday morning with lingering showers and storms possible across NE NC and extreme SE VA into late morning. Precip totals for Friday should be 0.05 inches or less as Pwats steadily decrease. Another warm day on tap with highs reaching the mid 80s inland VA, lower 80s inland NE NC and MD/VA Eastern Shore, and mid 70s to lower 80s beaches. Weak high pressure builds in behind the front as it washes out off the Carolina Coast. The nrn part of the front gets pushed NNE by Friday aftn as it sticks with parent low in nrn Ontario/wrn Quebec. Meanwhile, stacked high pressure begins to dominate off the Southeast Coast. This will allow a warming trend to remain steadfast through the weekend. Lows Friday night in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Breezy southwest winds expected to develop on Saturday and promote excellent mixing conditions under mostly sunny skies. Highs Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the low-mid 80s beaches. High cirrus to spread into the area from the northwest as a weak cold front to the north melds/merges with a warm front lifting into nrn VA from a low in the srn Plains. Best dynamics for any shower/thunderstorm development is mainly north of the area, however far nrn counties could see better precip chances (up to 30% POP) Saturday aftn/evening... whereas the rest of the area is anticipated to remain dry within the subsequent warm sector. The combination of the warm front located north of the area and southwest winds of 5-10mph Saturday night will result in warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s (mid 60s beaches). Once again, the region remains well within a warm sector on Sunday with a cold front crossing the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs 86-90F inland and 75-84F immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... There will be increasing chcs for showers and tstms fm the west late Sun night into Mon morning, as a cold front pushes into the mtns. That cold front will push thru the mts by late Mon, then cross the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have maintained high chc to likely Pops for showers/tstms fm Mon aftn into Tue morning. Lows Sun night will range thru the 60s. Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for later Tue morning thru Wed, as it slides from the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on Tue and Wed mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tue night ranging thru the 50s to near 60. Another low pressure area will lift fm the lower MS valley twd the OH valley Wed night thru Thu. This will result in increasing chcs for showers or tstms, esply during Thu. Lows Wed night in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Thu in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Latest surface analysis depicts the cold front over the central Appalachians with a weak surface trough over the local area. Widely scattered showers with embedded thunder (TS indicated at KRIC) have lifted into central Virginia early this morning, with another area of showers developing over eastern North Carolina. Main threat from thunderstorms will be locally heavy rain. Widespread VFR conditions observed with southerly winds generally at or below 10 knots. Scattered showers with embedded thunder lift across the eastern local area between 08-12Z this morning as a weakening cold front drops over the Piedmont. Increasing low level moisture will drop ceilings to MVFR for a period between 11-17Z this morning across the southeast. NAM/MET guidance remain pessimistic with IFR conditions, but believe moisture is being overdone in the low levels so have kept conditions MVFR. Thereafter, showers push offshore with another chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Winds become southwest then south at or below 10 knots. Outlook...Mainly dry weather expected over the weekend. Next frontal boundary expected late Monday into Tuesday with possibility of shwrs and tstms.
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&& .MARINE... Late this aftn, a weak cold front was pushing into the mtns. Winds were mainly SSW 10 to 15 kt over the waters. That weak front will approach fm the west tonight, then dissipates as it slides into the nrn waters Fri morning. South winds will increase a bit tonight, helping to maintain or build seas to 4 to 6 ft over the nrn three coastal zns. So, have maintained SCA for these zns into Fri morning. Otherwise, expect SSW winds to remain below SCA criteria. A disorganized pressure pattern will produce SSE winds arnd 10 kt or less over the waters during Fri. Generally SSW winds 15 kt or less will prevail over the wates Fri night thru Sun, as sfc high pressure sets up off the Mid Atlc/SE coast. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft. Another deep low pressure system will move thru the upper Midwest early next week. This along with an approaching cold front will increase the pressure gradient locally, with SCA`s likely Mon and Mon night. && .CLIMATE... It appears likely that Richmond and Norfolk will end the month with the warmest April on record. Warm temperatures during most of the month combined with an unseasonably warm period to end April are expected to push the average temperature above that which occurred in 1994. At Richmond, the previous record was 63.2 and at Norfolk it was 64.7. Both were set in 1994. This month`s temperatures could be around a degree above those values. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...SAM MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.