Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310036 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 736 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING OFF THE CST THIS EVE...RESULTING IN DP LYRD NWLY FLO OF COLDER AIR INTO THE FA. VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS ON GOING ATTM...EVEN SCT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH AREAS MNLY E OF I 95 PAST COUPLE OF HRS. NW WNDS HAVE INCRSD TO AVG 15-25 MPH...W/ GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH (HIGHEST MNLY ON THE ERN SHORE). RMNG WINDY THROUGH THE NGT. WIND ADVISORY TO RMN THROUGH MDNGT ON THE ERN SHORE FOR PSBL 45-50 MPH GUSTS. OTRW...XPCG GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH ON AVG ELSW BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE (WELL) AFT MDNGT. XPCG CLDNS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVE HRS...RESULTING IN MNLY SKC OVRNGT. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 40S WILL DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE...THEN DROP OUT MNLY FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S LATE. COMBO WNDS AND TEMPS RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LWR TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... CANADIAN SFC HI PRES ARRIVES FM THE WNW ON SAT RESULTING IN DRY/CHILLY CONDS. STARTING OUT MNLY SUNNY...W/ (MID/HI LVL) CLDNS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE RGN FM THE W BY LT IN THE DAY. HI TEMPS FM THE L30S OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE U30S TO L40S ELSW. MEANWHILE...LO PRES NOW IN THE SW CONUS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCRSG SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF THAT SYS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TWD THE LWR/MID MS VLY LT SAT. MDLS OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY W/ THE HANDLING OF THE SW STORM SYS...AND A SYS IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM DIGGING INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS. A MORE SRN TRACK TO THAT STM AS IT HEADED INTO THE ERN STATES WAS THE CASE WED/THU (THUS A MUCH HIGHER PTNTL FOR COLDER/WINTRY P-TYPE)...BUT NOW THERE IS MORE OF A TRANSFER/COMBO OF NRN/SRN STREAM SYSTEMS INVOF NATION`S MIDSECTION SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE NRN TRACK TO THE ENTIRE STM...W/ PRIMARY SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING INVOF MO INSTEAD OF TO THE S CLOSER TO THE GULF CST. THE PATTERN INVOF MDATLC IN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LT IN THE WKND INTO MON W/ SFC HI PRES TO DRIFT TO OFF THE SE CONUS CST (BY SUN AFTN)...COMBINED W/ LACK OF ANY NRN SFC HI PRES AND A MORE NRN W-E TRACK TO THE SFC LO PRES. THE AIR OVR THE FA (ESP NNW PORTION) ON SUN MAY BE DRY/COLD ENOUGH FOR RA/IP MIXTURE AT ONSET OF PCPN. TREND OF MDLS PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO BRING PCPN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE FA FM THE W THROUGH THE DAY SUN. XPCG MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVR THE FA AS S WNDS DEVELOP. ALL MDLS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) AGREE W/ THE MORE NRN TRACK (W-E) THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES LT SUN INTO MON. THUS...RA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FCST P-TYPE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY SUN EVE (IN THE M/U30S N...L/M40S S)...THEN RISE A FEW DEGS F THEREAFTER INTO MON MRNG. BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON...DRYING TREND TO BEGINNING BUT SUSPECT A BIT OF A DELAY IN LO LVL CAA (OR ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CATCH THE PCPN BEFORE IT EXITS) TO CAUSE ANY SGFNT SN THREAT (ON MON). WILL HAVE A MIX RA/SN SHWRS FOR MNLY NNE PORTIONS (AFT MON MRNG)...MNLY CHC SHWRS ELSW. HI TEMPS FM THE L40S NNW TO THE L/M50S SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OTHER THAN SOME SOME LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OVR CSTL WTRS ERLY MON EVE...EXPECT CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO L20S SOUTH XCPT M20S SERN BEACH AREAS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE 30S. MSTLY CLR TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH MID WEEK SYSTM AND OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING AND MOISTURE SCENARIOS...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST CONTINUES UNTIL SOME KIND OF CONSISTANCE IN SEEN. HOWEVER... THE TREND IS SLOWER IN BRINGING MSTR NORTH INTO THE FA AS SRN STREAM LOW DVLPS IN THE NRN GOM THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE SE AND PSBLY MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE PULLING NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL GUID SUGGESTS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. XPCT INCRG CLDNS WED. WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS 45-50. CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED NITE WITH MIXED SNOW/RAIN LATE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS. LOWS ARND FREEZING NRN MOST CNTYS TO THE M-U30S OVR THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS CONT THU XCPT FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ERLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NR 50 SE. IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFYS...THE STRNG HIGH PRS KEEPS SRN STREAM LOW SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FA. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS WINTER GIVEN NO REAL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN. ITS SOLN WOULD BE COLDER AND DRIER. ANTHR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS SYSTM BY FRIDAY. DCRG CLDNS THU NITE. LOWS IN THE 20S. MSTLY SUNNY FRI. HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A SURGE IN WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUST VALUES WILL OCCASIONALLY SPIKE OVERNIGHT AT SBY AND ORF BUT SELECTED VALUES FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAVMOS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN 10 KNOTS OF THE OBSERVATIONS. THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH AN 8K FOOT BROKEN DECK MOVING SE OF ECG FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. SCT HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME IFR PSBL AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. RAIN ENDS LATE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... CRNT HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GALES MOST PLACES TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS. STRNGST CAA TO OVRSPRD THE MARINE AREA NXT SVRL HRS. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS...35-40 KT IN THE BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS...AND ~35 KT IN MOST OF THE RIVERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST AND WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -12C) REALLY SURGE OVER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE WATERS (+5 TO +8 C). SEAS & WAVES RESPOND TO THESE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-11 FT WITH WAVES IN CHES BAY 4-6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY CONTS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNIND ACROSS CSTL WTRS NRTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND GIVEN THE FCSTD TEMPS/WIND GUSTS AND CURRENT WATER TEMPS. THIS IS WHERE SOME MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY. KEPT LIGHT ICING MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH & IN THE CHES BAY ATTM. XPCT SCA`S TO REPLACE GALES SAT MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY FALLING BLO SCA LVLS SAT EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NEXT LOW CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE WINDS IN SCA RANGE WITH GUSTS CAPPED AT 30 KTS ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-637. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656- 658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652-654. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MPR

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