Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 182043 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 343 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the Southeast Coast tonight into Sunday, bringing dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area. A cold front will approach late Monday, then crosses the region Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Late this aftn, low pressure was cntrd well off the Mid Atlc coast. While sfc high pressure was cntrd over wrn MS. A sunny sky coupled with a NW-SW breeze, helped temps climb into the mid 30s to lower 40s acrs the area this aftn, despite the snow cover. The cntr of the sfc high will build into AL tonight, and provide a clear sky and cold temps. Lows will range fm the upper teens to mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Sfc high pressure will dominate the weather Fri thru Sun. An initial piece of the high slides eastward to off the SE Coast Fri thru Sat, with a second piece of high pressure building over the Mid Atlc region during Sun after an upper level trough tracks south of the area and off the SE coast late Sat night into Sun. Expect a sunny sky for Fri and Sat, and partly to mostly sunny sky on Sun. Highs on Fri will mainly be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri night will range from the mid 20 to around 30. The airmass will continue to modify Sat and Sun with highs ranging fm the mid 50s to near 60 inland/piedmont, and in the lower to mid 50s for the Ern Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC. Lows Sat night 30 to 35.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models remain in generally good agreement wrt the pattern for the extended forecast period. Anticipated milder spell of wx will continue into the middle of next week as transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5. Sfc hi pres and upper level ridging near the E coast will gradually weaken into Mon. By late Mon...storm system tracking into the wrn Great Lakes will push its trailing cold front into the mtns. That front will make progress across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs (though 00Z/18 ECMWF remains a tad slower than 12Z/18 GFS attm). Will carry 60-70% PoPs during that time frame. Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning closer to seasonal levels) for Tue afternoon-Thu. Lows Sun night mainly 35-40F. Highs Mon in the l-m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night mainly in the l-m40s. Highs Tue in the l50s on the ern shore to the 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the m-u40s on the ern shore to the u40s-m50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the u20s NW to the m30s SE. Highs ranging through the 40s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this aftn into Fri aftn with SKC, as sfc high pressure builds into the area fm the WSW. West or NW winds will still gust to near 15-20 kt early this aftn, then calm down and become WSW less than 10 kt for this evening into Fri aftn. Outlook: Dry wx and VFR conditions will continue Fri night thru Sun, as high pressure mainly dominates. Next chance for showers (rain) and possible flight restrictions will arrive later Mon/Mon night. && .MARINE... Sfc lo pres now well E of the coast this afternoon. Winds slowly becoming W while waning as CAA has ended. Will be hanging onto SCA on the ocean into this eve as seas are slow to drop blo 5 ft. Sfc hi pres settles over the waters tonight...and persists through the weekend allowing for sub-SCA conditions. S winds begin to pick up Mon ahead of cold front approaching from the W. That front (accompanied by SHRAs) crosses waters early Tue. && .CLIMATE... Norfolk Top Five Snow Totals for the month of January (2018 currently sits at #4) 14.2/1966 13.8/1955 13.7/1893 12.8/2018*** 12.7/1940 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...AKQ

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