Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190635 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 235 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic Region through the weekend with temperatures gradually warming. The next cold front is expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Sfc hi pres sits invof local area through today as a trough aloft (w/ possible SCT-BKN CI) passes over the region and off the coast. Starting out chilly this morning...but not temperatures not as low as 24 hrs ago. Expecting abundant sunshine once again today...w/ light mainly SSW winds and highs 70-75F...except u60s right near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Sfc high pressure remains invof the local through Sat as ridge aloft builds/reaches maximum amplitude. Other possible SCT-BKN CI from time to time...expecting SKC w/ temperatures averaging above normal. Lows tonight in the m-u40s inland...l50s at the immediate coast. Highs Fri in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. Lows Fri night in the u40s-around 50F inland...to the l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat again in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sfc high pressure slides off the New England Coast Sat night and continues to retreat to the E into early next week. Ridge axis associated with this feature will remain over the local area through most of Sun before moving offshore. Meanwhile, mid- upper level ridge axis remains centered along the East Coast from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast through at least Sun before shifting ewd/offshore. A deep upper level trough spans the length of the Mississippi River from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast states Sun... becoming separated from its parent low (near wrn Hudson Bay in Canada) by Sun night. Sfc cold front linking the separated upper lows to cross the Midwest Sun/Sun night, Ohio Valley Mon/Mon night, and eventually cross the Mid Atlantic Region Tue/Tue night. Overall forecast is dry until Mon into Tue night with lingering showers possible Wed. Thunderstorms may also be possible Mon aftn based on current arrival of precip, however this could change if the upper trough digs deeper and delays onset of precip into Mon night. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal Sat-Mon night. Expect highs in the 70s. Lows will warm from the lower 50s most areas Sat night (mid- upper 50s beaches) to the lower 60s by Mon night. Highs closer to normal (69-75F) on Tue with widespread rain present. A much colder Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night. Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to fall/respond. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed around 5-10 degrees below normal with readings in the lower 60s inland and in the mid 60s far SE VA/coastal NE NC.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc hi pres remains over/near the area into Sun. An upper trough passes through the region through this evening then off the coast tonight. VFR/mainly SKC through the 06Z TAF period and beyond (through the weekend). A cold front is expected to impact the region early next week. && .MARINE... A large area of high pressure remains centered over the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon. The axis of the ridge stretches Farmville to just south of Wallops Island. South of this line seeing generally ne flow and north of the line the flow is more swly. But in all cases the winds are generally light, less than 10 kt. With the lighter winds, the seas are also generally a foot or less on the bay and 2-3 ft on the ocean. This strong high pressure system will remain entrenched across the region on Thursday with light winds and the benign seas. A cold front will slide across the region on Friday morning with a wind switch to the nw and increase in speed to 10-15 kt with seas also increasing to 1-2 FT on the by and 2-4 Ft on the ocean waters. However the bump up in winds will be temporary as the strong surface high reestablishes its control over the region for Saturday and Sunday with a return to benign conditions over the area waters. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come until early next week as a strong cold front slowly moves across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Expect an increase in sly winds ahead of the front and strong nwly winds behind the front. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB/TMG MARINE...ESS/TMG

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