Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301820 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina coast this afternoon, and will slowly track northeast along the coastal Carolinas while weakening further through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate section below for more details. The latest analysis still indicates Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie located just inland of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to discussions/forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for the track of Bonnie. Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will continue to lift NNW, enhanced by upper divergence provided by RRQ of upper jet. Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections. Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely along the coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95). Meanwhile, pops taper back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in the piedmont in expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak subsidence/low level drying advecting in from the west. QPF amounts through this evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser amounts farther inland. Highs today once again variable and clouds/pcpn dependent, but should be held in the mid-upper 70s along the coast/just inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland with lesser pcpn expected. Additional showers expected tonight, with Bonnie`s remnants lifting along the Carolina coast. Areal coverage of showers once again diminishes late, becoming focused along the coastal trough over the eastern third of the area. Once again mild/humid with lows in the 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW persist Mon night-Wed. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Unsettled wx xpcd through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres to be sloly kicked out well off the cst Thu ngt through Fri w/ approach of a cdfnt fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The fnt crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls ovr the Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The fnt is xpcd to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon. Highs Fri fm the u70s on the ern shore to the l-m80s elsw...then inthe m-u70s at the cst and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers persist across the region with every TAF site recording rain at the onset of the 18z TAFs. Conditions generally MVFR, with obs bouncing between scattered and broken around 700 to 1200 ft AGL. This has made for quite a challenging TAF forecast. Based on persistence and the air mass over the region, have continued with the trend of MVFR/IFR conditions through the afternoon, with some increased confidence for widespread IFR conditions overnight at all TAF sites. The exception may be ORF where MVFR conditions are favored. Regardless, expect poor aviation conditions overnight. Showers begin to push toward the coast early this evening, becoming more scattered across the southeast half of the forecast area through the overnight period. While conditions favor stratus, expect fog to develop mainly along the coast reducing visibilities to less than 3 miles at times. Weak pressure gradient results in light and variable winds overnight. Expect conditions to improve by mid morning Tuesday with MVFR and VFR conditions returning to the TAF sites. Post tropical storm Bonnie lingers over the Carolinas through Wednesday, resulting in ongoing unsettled weather conditions. Periods of rain and MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. A brief reprieve from the rain is forecast Wednesday night and possibly Thursday. A cold front then approaches the area of Friday, resulting in more showers and reduced visibilities and ceilings. && .MARINE...
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No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres along the Carolina coasts through Wed then slowly tracks NE off the VA cst-Delmarva Thu into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs fm the NW Fri...pushing E and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then stalling ovr the Carolinas on Sat. SE winds becoming more ENE tngt...then contg through Thu ngt. Speeds rmng generally aob 15kt...though there may be a bit of an incrs in speeds Wed into Thu as remnant lo pres tracks closer (to the srn wtrs). Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell...but may build to 4-5 ft Wed into Thu eve as remnant lo pres tracks just off the mdatlc coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2 ft with up to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell.
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&& .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC. Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08"). Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond... 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT) 2. 9.13" 1889 3. 8.98" 1873 4. 8.87" 1972 5. 8.67" 1886 6. 8.59" 2003 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/MAM NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...SAM MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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