Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200801 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop south across the area this morning and will stall over the Carolinas this afternoon through tonight. This front will lift back north as a warm front on Sunday. Another cold front is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest analysis indicating sfc cold front situated from near DCA to GED and slowly sinking S. Spotty light showers remain along the front, with another area of light showers well to the south over north central NC and south central VA. The front is slower than what had been anticipated from yesterday`s forecast, and this will result in a later wind shift to the NNE, with temperatures over interior southern VA and northeast NC rising into the 80s today, while the MD eastern shore where its currently around 70 F will see readings fall into the 60s today. For locations in between, highs will avg 75-80 F with readings falling into the lower 70s this aftn. In the case of areas near the Bay and Ocean, temperatures will fall into the 60s with a strong onshore NE flow after 18Z). PoPs will be fairly limited to 20-30% today with only weak forcing along the front this morning. The exception will be across interior NC and south central VA where high-res guidance shows redevelopment of aftn tstms as the slower frontal passage will allow for ML Capes to 500-1000 J/kg this aftn and have raised PoPs to 30-50% there after 18Z. For tonight, a few lingering showers possibly early this evening, then genly dry overnight though could see some patchy drizzle develop. Lows to avg in the 50s N to lower 60s far S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Aforementioned front lifts north as a warm front Sun, but will go no higher than 20% PoPs attm with weak forcing aloft. Continued below normal temps with highs only 65-70 F N/NW to the lower 70s interior SE. Mon forecast based off a GFS/ECMWF solution which remains consistent in bringing a strong cold front across the region during the aftn and evening. NAM just to drastic of a change to rely on attm. Decent jet, upr level shortwave energy and late day timing could result in an active fropa. The severity of any storms will likely depend on how much heating takes place ahead it. Heavy rainers possible given the progged PW`s. Chc pops in the morning then likely pops in the afternoon. Highs mid 70s to lwr 80s. Front pushes offshore around midnight with some drying behind it. Likely pops east with chc pops west during the evening, then slight chc pops along the coast after 06Z. Lows mid 50-mid 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Brief reprieve from the wet weather Tue as weak high pressure builds into the area. Dry with highs mid-upr 70s. Dry Tue evening with pops increasing across the west after 06Z ahead of the next systm. Lows upr 50s-lwr 60s. Next in a series of upr level lows tracks NE across the Gt lakes region Wed with the trailing cold progged to cross the region during the afternoon and evening. Could be a repeat of Mon with good upr level support, jet dynamics and late day timing. Chc pops in the morning with likely in the afternoon. Highs 75-80. Boundary pushes offshore Wed night with pops tapering off after midnight. Lows mid 50s-lwr 60s. Upr level low lifts NE with models showing a series of shortwaves rotating arnd it Thurs through Fri. Timing of pcpn appears to be more diurnal in nature. Thus will keep 20-30 pops each day (highest late afternoon/early evening). Highs both days in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in the 50s except arnd 60 SE.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Genly dry/VFR across the region early this morning, with a few spotty showers now developing across south central VA. The cold front is still N of all TAF sites but will push through SBY prior to 10Z and gradually move south through the remainder of the region by late morning/early aftn. Winds will shift to the N then NE and gusts to 20-25 kt along the coast. In additions, a BKN-OVC SC deck arnd 3-5K FT will develop. Increasing moisture from off the ocean results in the cloud deck lowering to MVFR levels late, and possibly to IFR later tonight into Sun morning. NE winds become gusty at between 15-20 kts along the coast. The boundary returns N as a warm front Sun/Sunday night bringing the potential for IFR stratus and areas of light rain. A cold front approaches from the W Monday bringing numerous showers and tstms by late morning and aftn. High pressure returns Tuesday, followed by another chc of showers/tstms Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the W.
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&& .MARINE...
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Still waiting on the cold front to sag its way south into the local area early this morning. The latest obs suggest this should begin to take place around 5am across the northernmost waters. After that, the front will make it way south over the remainder of the waters through late morning with winds become NE behind the front. Expecting a decent enough surge for winds to reach 15-25 kt across all waters today, especially during the 10am-10pm time frame. Solid SCA conditions in speed/duration not expected for the York, Rappahannock and upper James Rivers so have left them out of any SCAs. Seas build to 4-5 ft on avg with waves in the Bay reaching 3-4 ft. Winds diminish by late this evening as high pressure builds a little farther south and easterly winds diminish to 10-15 kt. Seas will remain elevated into tonight. Winds stay E 10-15 kt Sun morning then become SE in the afternoon. Latest guidance has hitched on to the possibility of seas remaining elevated thru Sunday, so have extended SCAs for the ocean until 6 pm for now. Winds become S then SW on Monday ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. The next front crosses the area late Mon. Not much change in airmass behind this front so expect winds to remain below SCA levels early next week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MPR AVIATION...LKB MARINE...JDM

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