Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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406 FXUS61 KAKQ 200803 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 403 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the region today into monday, then slides off the coast Monday night and Tuesday. The next cold front will impact the region on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest analysis indicating a weak frontal boundary nearly stationary along the NC coast, stretching back WSW into south central NC. Weak sfc high pressure is centered along the central/southern Appalachians. Aloft, a trough axis is pushing east towards the coast and taking the associated shortwave energy with it. Had a few showers/tstms earlier acrs Dorchester County MD, but this has since dissipated and skies are now mostly clear. Patchy fog has developed, mainly over southern VA, but has genly not been dense thus far. For early this morning, will maintain mention of fog in the forecast through 12-13Z over interior southern VA/NE NC, otherwise quiet conditions with cooler temperatures than past several nights (readings in the 60s over much of the interior). Skies become sunny after any early fog with some scattered clouds this aftn. Overall, with sfc high pressure in place, PoPs will be kept silent today (14% or less). Seasonably warm with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/lower 90s inland. Humidity will be moderate with aftn dew pts in the 65-70 F range most areas (lower 70s SE coast). Mostly clear tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, patchy fog possible again after midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The area of high pressure slides off the coast on Monday and the flow turns more to the S/SE, which will allow some additional moisture to return to the area. The orographic lift will allow some convection to form along the Blue Ridge and Appalachian mountains. Some of this convection could slide newd off the higher terrain and impact portions of the Piedmont counties and the nrn neck/ern shore later on Monday afternoon and evening so have continued the slight chance pops. But most areas should be dry due to a lack of lift and little mid level moisture. Temperatures should begin to climb with most areas getting back up into the lower 90s (85-90 F at the coast). Monday night into Tuesday will see mainly dry weather as well, but the humidity will increase slightly as the southerly flow strengthens. Lows during the overnight hours should be in the low to mid 70s and the highs on Tuesday should be a little warmer into the low 90s. The southeastern portion of the cwa would have the best chance for an isolated shower as some Atlantic moisture lifts newd into NE NC and the VA Tidewater. Cold front will move into the region from NW to SE late Tue night through Wed. Enough lift and moisture convergence on Wed for at least high chc PoPs all zones, and have raised them to likely (60%) Wed aftn/evening over the south as the front looks to slow down with a wave of low pressure then tracking along the front. Highs Wed mid 80s N to lower 90s S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front exits the coast by Thu morning. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu, although they should taper off from NW to SE as the front moves farther southeast and away from the area. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across the Midwest into the ern Great Lakes Thu- Sat with dry conditions anticipated during this timeframe. Highs Thu-Sat mainly upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Wed night mid- upper 60s NW to 70-74F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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earlier tstms acrs the MD eastern shore diminished, with mainly clear skies across the region. Seeing patchy MVFR/IFR conditions in fog over southern VA, but thus far none of this is affecting TAF sites. Still think some MVFR fog will be possible from 09-12Z (except at ORF). All fog should quickly dissipate after 12Z. After that...VFR conditions today through Monday as sfc high pres builds back into the region. There will once again be the potential for some patchy fog early on Monday morning. The next cold front approaches the region late Tue and into Wed. Sub-VFR conditions and showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wed, and may linger across the SE terminals into Thu morning.
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&& .MARINE... Benign conditions through Sun with light/variable winds aob 10kt. Winds become more onshore Sun night into Mon (remaining aob 10kt) as a front near the Mid Atlantic Coast washes out/weakens. Seas average 2ft; waves 1-2ft. South winds Mon night-Tue night with stacked high pressure off the Southeast Coast and a thermal trough developing in the lee of the mts Tue night. A surge in winds is anticipated Tue night into Wed morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Speeds could reach 15-20kt Bay/ocean with seas building to 3-4ft north and 2-3ft south; waves building to 2-3ft. SCA flags may be possible for these areas in this timeframe. The next cold front is expected to cross the region during Wed and exit the coast by Thu morning. Winds N-NE aob 15kt behind front Wed aftn/evening through Sat. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-3ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ESS/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...BMD/TMG

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