Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011817 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 ORF: 97/1993 SBY: 97/1980 ECG: 96/1943 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JEF MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...

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