Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140844 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 344 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A pair of low pressure systems will pass to the north of the area through Friday. Weak low pressure develops off the coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night. High pressure returns Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sfc low pressure tracks eastward along the Mason-Dixon Line early this morning before pushing offshore between 12-15Z. This feature will drag a weak cold front through the area by midday, pushing offshore this afternoon. Temps are already off to a milder start compared to yesterday morning with readings currently in the 30s to around 40. We will continue to build on this trend through the afternoon with WNW flow promoting decent mixing. High temps will reach the mid 40s NW to the low 50s over SE VA & NE NC under a mostly sunny sky. High pressure centers itself over MD tonight with increasing mid/high clouds. Colder once again with lows from the low 20s N-W to the low 30s SE coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure gets squeezed to the NE Friday morning as low pressure and an upper trough pivot through the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak wave of low pressure is expected to develop off the NC OBX around midday Friday, then quickly track NE well off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday night. Things will have to come together just right for phasing between the Great Lakes trough and the coastal low to produce possible -RA/-SN showers over the Eastern Shore/Northern Neck Friday aftn/early eve. Right now am carrying slight chc PoPs (~20%) for these areas as 00Z ECMWF/RGEM and to a lesser degree than 00Z NAM are lending some credence to this scenario. Otherwise, Friday will be dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE coast. Dry and chilly Friday night behind the departing system. Lows in the 20s except lwr 30s SE coast. Highs pressure builds across the SE states Sat / Sat nite, promoting dry wx. Highs in the mid-upr 40s. Lows Sat night in the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model timing and moisture differences make for a low confidence forecast early next week (due to a split flow). The one factor that does seem to be in agreement is that temps remain warm enuf across the local area for any pcpn to fall as liquid. A warm front is progged to lift north of the area Sunday with svrl srn stream s/w`s progged to lift NE from the deep south thru Tue. Slght chc pops across the piedmont Sun aftrn. Highs in the upr 40s- mid 50s. ECMWF/Canadian have wetter solutions but with timing differences while the GFS is drier and keeps the deep moisture south of the local area until late Tue. Thus, keeping some continuity with the current forecast results in keeping chc pops Sun night into Tue for now. (All liquid pcpn with no higher than 40 pop). Dry Wed. Lows Sun nite in the upr 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Highs Mon/Tue in the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s NW to lwr 40s SE. Highs Wed in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 06Z/14 TAF forecast period. SSW winds aob 15 kt tonight becoming WNW Thu. VFR conditions continue into Fri as high pressure dominates. Low pressure off the coast may result in a few SNSHs at SBY Fri eve. High pressure returns over the weekend. && .MARINE... Winds are slowly beginning to fall this afternoon as the strong low over Eastern Canada begins to pull NE away from the waters. The pressure gradient should continue to relax this evening for a brief period of time, through about midnight, as high pressure slides just south of the waters. However, the next quick moving storm system, now over the Southern Great Lakes continues to push eastward. This will quickly turn the winds back out of the S to SW overnight with speeds increasing back to 20 to 25 kt, perhaps as high as 30 kt over the coastal waters. The cold front will race off the coast by 12z Thursday with a brief surge behind the front lingering through the afternoon hours. For now, have gone with SCA conditions for all areas through the afternoon hours on Thursday, except for the rivers which should see 10 to 15 kt winds overnight. There could be some gust on the waters up to 35 kt, but not enough to warrant a Gale, especially with the SW flow. Once this system exits on Thursday afternoon, high pressure will then build into the region, although it is a weak area so some light westerly flow will continue but will be below SCA level. On Friday, the region will be between a front to the south and another northern stream low pressure system. Winds will be generally light with some NE flow gradually turning to the SW and then NW by Friday night. A reinforcing cold front will cross the area on Saturday and with the flow increasing with the cold advection. This could lead to more SCA conditions. High pressure returns on Sunday with the flow turning back to the SW and with moisture on the increase some rain is possible Sunday night into Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The potential exists for some low water issues across the lower Bay during today`s midday low tide cycle. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.