Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241948 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Sfc low pressure currently resides over coastal Massachusetts. That low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the New England coast tonight. Other than an isolated shower chance mainly along/south of I-64 late this aftn/eve...expect a mainly clear sky tonight. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time this season (see climate section). Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive than other long range models and have therefore trended the forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ, Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday. && .MARINE...
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West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun... building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) Average 1st 90 deg day: RICMay 13 ORFMay 17 SBYMay 27 1st 90 deg day last year (2015): RICMay 12 ORFMay 12 SBYJun 1
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LKB MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...AKQ

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