Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST. FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY (ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY 50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32 F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT 40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG. OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER) IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049- 060>085-087>090-092. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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