Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 200006
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
806 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
High pressure will remain just offshore through Thursday,
bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area. A cold front
crosses the region on Friday bringing showers to the area. Cooler,
more seasonable temperatures return to the region for the
upcoming weekend into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 990 mb low pressure over se Canada with
weak high pressure offshore and a frontal boundary north of the
local area. Dry wx tonight with a mostly clear sky as the eastern
seaboard is under the influence of an upper-level ridge, and the
front stays off to the north. Included patchy fog over most areas
with winds decoupling and temps quite close to dewpts. Low temps
in the low- mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front and associated mid-level trough traverse the OH
Valley Thu. Will maintain a dry forecast attm, with moisture
associated with an offshore passing tropical low expected to not
impact the fa. Warm conditions continue Thu with highs in the low-
mid 80s. Temps should stay a few degrees below records (see
Climate section below for details).
For late Thu night/Fri...aforementioned front and trough approach
and eventually cross the Mid Atlc. Shras will move across the
region from Fri morning through the aftn. The best chance of rain
will be during the aftn hours, with likely pops areawide except se
portions of the fa (50% pops). Thunder is psbl as well but kept
out of the forecast for now with confidence not high enough to
include yet. Temps Fri lwr than previous days...highs mainly
70-75. Chances of rain decrease fm west to east Fri evening/night
as the frnt pushes offshore and drier air moves in from the west.
Low temps Fri night mainly 45-50.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Last spoke of energy around the potent low over northern New England
crosses the area Sat morning. This will usher in a cool/dry airmass
on gusty WNW winds. The gusty winds diminish Sat night as high
pressure builds into the area from the NW. This high progged to
settle across the sern states Sat night through Mon. The next cold
front crosses the area late Mon and appears to do so dry. High
pressure builds in from the north Tues and Wed.
Highs Sat in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Lows 40-45 except 45-50 sern
coastal areas. Highs Sun in the low to mid 60s. Lows in the mid 40s
to lwr 50s. Warmer Mon with highs upr 60s to lwr 70s. Lows in the
lwr 40s to lwr 50s se. Highs Wed in the mid to upr 60s.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 23Z...High pressure remains just offshore of the
area, bringing mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds.
Upperlevel ridging continues to the west across the southern Great
Lakesand stretching down into the Tennessee Valley.
Expecting the possibility of fog tonight due to very
light/calm winds, generally clear skies, and small dewpoint
depressions across the area. Confidence continues to grow on the
fog potential, thus added MVFR visibilities for all TAF sites for
the second half of the night. Brought in IFR visibilities at RIC
and ECG closer to sunrise as guidance continues to show the
highest fog potential at these locations. Guidance has also been
hinting at the possibility of some stratus towards sunrise at
RIC, decided to leave this out of the TAF at this time due to low
confidence. Fog should begin to dissipate shortly after sunrise
and we will return to VFR conditions on Thursday.
Outlook: The next chance for rain arrives Friday as a strong
coldfront crosses the area. Dry weather will return for the
weekend andthe first half of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
No headlines through Thursday night as the return flow around high
pressure keeps S-SW winds below 15 kts. Waves 1-2 ft, 2-3 ft seas.
Cold front progged to cross the waters Friday shifting the winds to
the NW in the afternoon. Models continue to show a surge into SCA
range behind the fropa starting late Fri afternoon. Will hold off on
and SCA headlines with this package given a late 4th period starting
Where the forecast becomes problematic is Friday night when an even
stronger surge is noted due to a tightening pressure gradient
between the deepening low over New England and the high pressure to
the west. In addition, not exactly sure how the developing system
out in the Atlantic will affect the forecast as it lifts north well
east of the eastern seaboard. For now, will keep gusty winds in the
forecast Sat and Sat night. However, latest data does suggest that
gusts to gale force are possible late Fri night and early Sat across
the northern coastal waters where the pressure gradient will be the
tightest. Thus, bumped up gusts to 35 KTS across those areas Fri
nite for now. Plenty of time to adjust if needed as later data comes
in. Waves build 3-4 FT, seas 4-6 ft.
Another cold front crosses the area Late Monday. Possible minimal
SCA behind this boundary as well.
Very warm conditions continue today through Thursday with the
possibility of challenging some records today. Current daily
records are listed below:
* Record Highs:
* Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20)
* RIC 87 (1938) 89 (1984)
* ORF 87 (2007) 87 (1984)
* SBY 84 (1938) 84 (1984)
* Record High Mins:
* Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20)
* RIC 73 (2007) 68 (1916)
* ORF 73 (2007) 70 (1916)
* SBY 71 (2007) 68 (1916)