Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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120 FXUS61 KAKQ 271053 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the Mid Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Another hot and humid day in store for today with hi pressure remaining off the se coast. A heat advisory remains in effect for areas south and east of Richmond. Hi temps in the lo/mid 90s this aftn. With similar thermodynamics and a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity, expect convection this aftn/eveng to be similar to yesterday (scattered coverage). Rain chances at 40% most areas. The threat of severe wx will be low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will be possible in any tstm. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Expect ongoing shras/tstms this eveng, diminishing in coverage and intensity thru the night. Temps bottom out in only the mid 70s overnight under light winds and a prtly/mstly cloudy sky. For Thu...the stalled sfc frontal boundary in conjunction with a series of mid-level impulses ahead of a main shortwave over the TN Valley will lead to a good chance of shras/tstms. SPC has upgraded the area to a slight risk for svr wx as deep-layer shear will be higher than previous days (over 30 kt). Hi temps and heat indices will be very similar to those of today. Models continue to struggle with exact location of the frontal boundary later this week. Latest guid points to this boundary stalling across virginia with several weak s/w`s moving east along it. These disturbances will allow the boundary to sag south across the fa Fri and Fri nigh, then slowly drift back north over the upcoming weekend. Guid suggests more clouds with higher pops across the northern half of the fa with less clouds and lwr pops across the south. Severe threat appears low given weak shear profiles, but gusty winds / hvy downpours possible given pw`s in excess of 2 inches. Temps tricky Fri and will all depend on the exact location of the boundary. Highs from the mid-upper 80s across the north, 90-95 over the south where more heating (sun) will occur. Heat index values blo 100 over most of the area except sern zones where values btwn 100-105 expected. Lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes to the going forecast for the extended. The westerlies generally remain north of the area through early next week with the frontal boundary remaining just north of the area or even over the region through the period. This frontal boundary will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms through the entire forecast period...with slightly higher POPs Sunday into Sunday night as heights lower across the forecast area as a weak upper trough passes north of the region. Will go with a dry forecast on Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF finally suggest the surface front may pass south of the area as the upper trough deepens over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. It will continue warm and humid through the extended with highs each day in the low-mid 90s with dew points still in the low-mid 70s. Probably not quite as warm as previous days...but still uncomfortable. Perhaps a little cooler and slightly drier on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Vfr to start off the 12z taf period with sfc hi pressure off the se coast and a weak frontal boundary dropping into the area from the north. After some scattered shras/tstms early this morng over the lwr eastern shore, there will be a break in the pcpn until this aftn/eveng when another round of convection is expected. Vfr cigs/vsbys thru the day outside of any tstms which could bring brief mvfr/ifr. Winds will be generally light and variable. OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected each day through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... Benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds aob 10 kt will continue thru Thu, variable at times, with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. OUTLOOK... No headlines expected but the meandering frontal boundary will play havoc with the wind direction into the early part of the weekend. Expect a s-sw direction on the south side of the front Thurs nite and Fri then shifting to the nw-n for a while Fri nite into Sat before becoming s-sw again by late in the weekend. Winds stay below 15 kts with seas 2-3 ft through the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065-079>082-087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS/MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS/MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.