Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160710 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 210 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm conditions will prevail tonight into Friday ahead of a cold front. That front drops through the local area late Friday, bringing a chance for showers Friday, then much colder weather for Saturday. High pressure builds across the region on Sunday with seasonable temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest analysis indicates zonal west flow aloft with weak troughing at the the sfc over the region, and high pressure centered well S of the region centered off the FL coast. Scattered high clouds are streaming across the region with very mild temperatures ranging through the 60s, with mid/upper 50s at the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. A mainly dry night is expected in the warm sector with perhaps an isolated shower over the far N after 09Z. Otherwise, partly cloudy and unseasonably warm, with near steady temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s with a 10-15 mph SW wind. Highs Fri will range from in the mid/upper 60s far N and across the ern shore to 70-75 most other places (may even get to 75-80F NE NC). Cold front will be pressing SE into the FA Fri afternoon...accompanied by SHRAs (PoPs increasing to 50-60% by aftn). Otherwise...mostly cloudy N...partly sunny then mostly cloudy S Fri. Not a lot of mstr with this front so QPF amounts mainly only from 0.05" to 0.15" (locally higher amounts in brief heavy showers). Little to no instability and a weakening shortwave aloft with little precip ahead of the front in the warm sector lends to little to no tstms expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Turning much colder Fri night and Sat as the front initially shifts winds to the N Fri night with the front stalling just to our S (by early Sat morning). Latest models continue to have little to no precip prior to 15-18Z/Sat w/ return of moisture. Thermal profile on most models still cold enough for wintry ptype at the start...mainly over the Piedmont and over the N...but will have PoPs those areas aob 30%. Rising thicknesses as atmosphere moistens into/through the afternoon combined w/ sfc temperatures sufficiently above freezing will lead to a minimal to no impact event for most. With sfc dew pts progged in the 20-25F range over the NW 1/2 of the CWA into early aftn, still think sleet will mix in fro a few hrs even with sfc temps well above freezing. A minimal sleet/snow accumulation on the grass possible over the Far N/NW zones from 18Z/Sat-00Z/Sun. Lows Fri night in the u20s- l30s N to the u30s- around 40F SE. Highs Sat from the u30s- l40s NW and central areas to the mid/upper 40s far SE. Mainly RA Sat eve as sfc lo pres exits the coast...then heads out to sea by Sun morning. Will have high PoPs (60-70% W to 70-90% E) Sat eve...decreasing W-E after midnight. Mild wx is expected for Sunday as high pressure ridges back into the region. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon with sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended period will consist of above normal temps acrs the area, but there will also be chcs for more rain showers, esply Mon/Mon evening and Wed thru Thu. A warm front will lift into and acrs the region late Sun night thru Mon, bringing a decent chc for showers, esply nrn and wrn counties. Mainly dry wx and warmer temps Tue and into Wed aftn, as sfc high pressure will be anchored well off the Mid Atlc coast, while a frontal boundary slowly approaches fm the WNW. That front will then drop acrs the area later Wed into Thu, bringing another chc for rain showers. Highs will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s Mon, range fm the mid 60s to mid 70s Tue and Wed, and ranging thru the 50s into the lower 60s Thu. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sun night, 50 to 55 Mon night, ranging thru the 50s Tue night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Wed night. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Deep layered WSW flow over the FA attm...remaining so through this morning. VFR conditions into this afternoon...then w/ a cold front pressing SE into/through the area this afternoon/evening...potential flight restrictions (mainly brief MVFR) and SHRAs will be right w/ and (shortly) behind the front and will likely reach RIC/SBY around or after 18Z16 and around or after 21Z/16 for PHF/ORF/ECG. The front stalls over NC Sat morning with moisture returning and rain likely Sat aftn/evening, possibly starting out as a very brief period of -SN/-IP at RIC and/or SBY. There is the potential for IFR cigs late Sat into Sat night. Turning drier w/ VFR conditions Sunday. Another round of SHRAs is possible Mon...w/ sfc hi pres prevailing off the coast by Tue.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal bndry near the OH Valley with high pressure off the SE coast. Previously issued headlines remain in effect for tonight, with a tightening pressure gradient allowing S/SW winds to slowly increase this evening up to 15-20 kt over the Bay, and 15-25 kt over northern coastal wtrs with seas up to 5 ft. The headlines still end Fri morning, with winds expected to diminish a bit following the fropa Fri aftn, before ramping back up again close to SCA criteria over the Bay Fri night as CAA increases. After some potential lingering 5 ft seas over southern coastal wtrs Sat morning, sub-SCA conditions expected Sat aftn as high pressure passes N then NE of the area. Developing low pressure will push off the Mid Atlc coast Sat night, with high pressure returning for Sun. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures Today/Fri. Record highs are listed below: * Thu 2/15 Fri 2/16 * RIC: 82 (1989) 78 (1976) * ORF: 80 (1989) 77 (1990) * SBY: 76 (1989) 73 (1976) * ECG: 78 (1989) 80 (1945) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. Further troubleshooting is currently being performed by technicians. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MAS CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.