Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271718 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area later today into tonight. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday, then slides off the coast for Wednesday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Broad trough aloft slides fm the ern Great Lakes/OH Valley E through the NE CONUS and Mid Atlc region this aftn into this evening. A relatively potent s/w aloft will track acrs the local area this aftn/early evening. Despite relatively dry airmass, this system could prove strong enough to squeeze out isolated to sctd showers/tstms, esply along and E of I 95. Will carry 20-30% PoPs, with the highest PoPs over extrm SE VA and NE NC. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc hi pres will finally build into/over the region tonight through Wed...providing dry weather and comfortable conditions under a mainly clear sky. Lows tonight in the l-m50s inland...to the u50s to l60s at the coast. Highs on Wed ranging in the l-m80s...mainly 70s at the beaches. The high will slide off the coast for Wed night and Thu...maintaining dry wx. A little more humidity returns as SSW flow starts to dominate again (dewpoints return to more climo normal levels (in the 60s) by Thu afternoon). Lows Wed night in the u50s-l60s inland...l-m60s at the coast. Highs Thu 85-90F...except l80s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period will begin mainly dry Thu night/Fri as the models remain in good agreement with the pattern of high pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the mid-Atlc/SE coast. Highs Fri look to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s with dew pts increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s. An isolated late day tstm possible over the far W and for interior NE NC but have genly kept PoPs <15%. A little better chance for rain arrives Sat aftn/Sat night as somewhat deeper moisture develops along a lee trough. Will cap PoPs at 20-30% in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays W of the Mtns closer to an approaching cold front. Lows mainly 70-75 F with highs again primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will see a further increase in PoPs to ~40% by aftn/evening as the cold front gets closer to the local area. With this several days out will cap PoPs at 40% for now, but may raise PoPs for this in future updates if the timing holds. Mon will see the front slow or stall across mainly southern portions of the area with ~40% PoPs S to 20-30% elsewhere. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s and highs 85-90 F. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. A weak cold front will pass through the region late this afternoon/tonight. Additional isolated/scattered shwrs/tstms are possible this afternoon and evening, especially E of I 95. Latest hi-res guidance suggests KSBY has the best chance, but not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be variable and under 10kts until frontal passage, then become N/NE post frontal passage. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for much of the week...as sfc hi pres builds over the region, then slides off the coast on Thursday. Next chance for ceiling/vsby restrictions will be late Friday/Saturday in scattered showers/tstms.
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&& .MARINE...
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10 am update...Have increased winds/waves through the rest of the morning as observations show brief northerly surge moving down the middle/lower Bay. Winds should subside to 10 kt or less around or shortly after noon. In addition, hi res models suggest another northerly surge overnight into early Wednesday morning behind secondary cold front. Winds could approach SCA criteria for a brief period, before again subsiding by late morning. Rest of forecast unchanged at this time. Previous discussion...Generally a quiet pattern through Wed night with a weak pressure gradient, although there will be a few brief wind shifts w/ weak frontal passages early this morning and with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Weak CAA today will only bring N/NW winds behind the front of 10-15 kt, diminishing by aftn to 5-10 kt. Sfc high pressure returns for Wednesday aftn leading to an aftn sea breeze 10 kt or less. Waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with seas over the coastal waters 2-3 ft thru Wed. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night, but they will be marginal events.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...WRS MARINE...JDM/LKB/WRS

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