Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190734 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 334 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODA/...
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LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BNDRY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO THE 20 TO 30 POP ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S. NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85 TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S. SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85 TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY THE GROUND IS ATTM. ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST... 6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY...MPR

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