Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180919 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 419 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning. The storm continues to track east northeast farther out to sea this afternoon while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the Southeast Coast will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Friday through Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Current wv imagery and 310K Mont. stream function depict a potent upper low gradually pushing across VA/NC early this morning. The 3 GOES-16 wv channels each show the presence of a TROWAL over ern NC, with AKQ/MHX radars showing some rather impressive banding, although the past few scans show that some dry air is beginning to entrain. Lightning has been observed offshore on the wrn periphery of the surface low, with even some flashes earlier into far ern NC. Not much ground truth so far for snowfall in NE NC near the Albemarle Sound and Atlantic coast, but 3hr dual- pol precip analysis depicts 0.3-0.6" of liquid for these locations and 850-700mb thickness values ~1520m would support about a 12:1 SLR, so there could be 4-8" of snow accumulation overnight. This is combined with a NNW wind of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Snow will continue to taper off through 7 am, but the Winter Storm Warning will continue through 7 am to account for blowing and drifting of snow. Otherwise, drier air is spreading over the remainder of the area. Clearing has occurred across the wrn half of the area, which has allowed temperatures to drop into the teens, and even some upper single digits. Drier air will continue to overspread the region this morning. Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly by this aftn. A cold start to the day is expected with temperatures only rising into the mid/upper 20s through 9-10 am. Limited mixing combined with slowly melting snow should result in rather stable lapse rates and and this will offset mid-level WAA with surface high temps only reaching the upper 30s to around 40F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure will then slide from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the SE Coast tonight through Saturday, and bring dry weather, a clear/sunny sky, and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 20s, with some upper teens possible over the SW piedmont where a thicker snowpack will be present. Highs Friday will mainly be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 20 to around 30F. The airmass will continue to modify Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to perhaps around 60F well inland, with low to mid 50s for the Ern Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving fits transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5...leading to aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system tracking off SE CONUS coast Sun...sfc hi pres and upper level ridging will be dominant Sun into Mon. By late Mon...storm system expected to track into the wrn Great Lakes...w/ its trailing cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs (though 12Z/17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12Z/17 GFS attm). Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal levels) for Tue afternoon-Wed. Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s on the ern shore to 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly 35-40F. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the l50s on the ern shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Drier air slowly filtering from the NW, with mainly VFR conditions at all sites but ECG, and ECG should improve through 12z. Wind will generally be N with gusts to 25 kt near the coast early this morning. The sky gradually become SCT to SKC through 12z, with breezy N to NW winds continuing. VFR/mainly clear for the remainder of the day with winds shifting to the W by aftn. Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions Thursday night through Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds across the region. Next chance for showers (rain) and flight restrictions will arrive later Mon/Mon night.
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&& .MARINE...
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Added the northern Coastal Waters to the Gale Warning which runs through 7 AM EST. Continue to see gusts of 35 to 40 knots over all Coastal Waters/Mouth of the Bay this morning. A few gusts to 35 knots will also be possible over the Bay this morning, particularly on the east side of the Bay. The surface low has moved off the coast and will continue to push out to sea through the day. Strong CAA continues this morning with Gale and SCAs in effect for all waters. Seas are also churned up this morning with seas of 6 to 10 feet over the coastal waters (waves 3 to 5 feet). High pressure settles back into the area today allowing for winds to quickly diminish through the morning. High pressure will persist through the weekend allowing for sub-SCA conditions.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031-032-102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ634-650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>633-638. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...AJB

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