Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
882 FXUS61 KAKQ 221910 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region tonight through mid week...bringing in a drier and more seasonable airmass to the area. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Sfc high pressure builds into the region the rest of today and slides overhead tonight. Limited few-sct cumulus fields this afternoon will dissipate btwn 500-700 PM with the loss of daytime heating. Cooler/comfortable temps tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s SE (70-74 beaches) and dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 60s beaches). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc ridge axis becomes oriented along the Mid Atlantic coastline by Tue afternoon and fluctuates inland at times through Wed. Meanwhile, mid-upper level ridging gradually amplifies over the area, and onshore/NE-E winds averaging 10 mph will persist at the immediate coast with highest speeds around 15 mph anticipated from Wachapreague, VA to Duck, NC during this timeframe. The overall forecast will be dry with diurnal cumulus developing (mainly inland) each afternoon. Isolated showers/storms may be possible closer to Albemarle Sound Wed afternoon (per hi-res model solutions) with the potential for increasing clouds in srn NE NC as Wed progresses. However, will limit POPs to 10% since the available moisture layer attm is very shallow. Temperatures will be at to slightly below normal with dewpoints generally around 60F. Highs Tue in the low-mid 80s. Lows Tue night in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland (upper 60s to around 70F beaches). Slightly warmer Wed with highs in the mid 80s inland...lower 80s beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure pushes farther offshore Wednesday night and Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the Southeast. Temperatures and dewpoints will moderate Thursday as the ridge builds and surface winds become southerly. Dry conditions prevail, with highs warming into the mid to upper 80`s. Medium range guidance continues the trend of a weaker northern stream trough now located over southeast Canada Friday. An associated weak cold front approaches the region Friday and crosses the area Friday night. A lack of appreciable forcing thanks to the building ridge and the shortwave energy passing well north of the forecast area will result in a dry forecast. Highs Friday warming back into the upper 80`s to low 90`s. The weak front stalls along the coast through the weekend, but again with the upper level high over the region and limited moisture, will carry silent POP`s. Highs this weekend in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. Average highs this time of year are generally in the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and drier air are building in from the NW and will remain over the area through mid week...before sliding offshore later in the week. Dry and VFR conditions are expected throughout the week. Winds are expected to continue decreasing all terminals through the remainder of the afternoon...with light onshore/ne-e winds expected Tuesday. && .MARINE... 1 pm update...SCA now only in effect over the southern coastal waters, as seas are expected to remain close to or just above 5 feet through at least 20Z. Otherwise, winds/waves/seas subsiding as per earlier discussion. Previous discussion... Cold front has pushed offshore early this morning, with a northwest surge ongoing over the waters. Speeds are generally 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 knots. Some of the higher elevated sensors gusting to near 30 knots, and with favorable mixing due to warm waters, expect some higher gusts to also be observed near the water surface. Waves generally 1-2 feet, but expect an increase to 2-4 feet by daybreak. The national wave model kicks seas from 2-3 feet up to 4-5 feet by daybreak as well. Cold air advection begins to wane mid morning as high pressure nudges in from the west. Winds become northerly 10-15 knots late morning. Waves subside to 2-3 feet late morning with seas subsiding to 3-4 feet by early afternoon. Seas 2- 3 feet late afternoon. No changes made to end times of headlines. High pressure builds over PA today through tonight with flow becoming north to northeast. The gradient strengthens slightly tonight with northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters. Seas respond, building back to 3-4 feet. Northeast winds diminish Tuesday as the high pushes off the Northeast coast. A period of sub-SCA onshore flow (varying from northeast to southeast) is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Waves generally 1-2feet and seas 2-3 feet. The next cold front approaches the region Friday, reaching the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. The front then stalls near the coast for the weekend as high pressure builds into southeast Canada and the Northeast. This would indicate a period of onshore flow with seas possibly reaching SCA thresholds late in the weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D radar will be out of service through possibly Tuesday afternoon before a return to service. Technicians will begin repairs first thing Tuesday morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/WRS MARINE...SAM/WRS EQUIPMENT...akq is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.