Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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655 FXUS61 KAKQ 101107 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 607 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the area today and tonight, then slides offshore Sunday. Low pressure tracks east across the Great Lakes region early next week. The associated warm front lifts north of the region Sunday night with a trailing cold front crossing the area late Monday. Another strong cold front impacts the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc high pressure (1034 mb) builds over the area today. Sct high level clouds possible but overall expect a sunny and cold day. H85 temps only support highs btwn 39-45. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridge axis shifts towards the coast tonight with mstly clear skies during the evening hours. This allows for good radiational cooling conditions. A northern stream trough dives into the Great Lakes region, which allows for increasing high clouds after midnight, especially across the north. Lows in the upr teens- lwr20s except 25-30 along the beaches. The sfc high moves off the Delmarva coast Sunday with the initial wave shearing out and pushing north of the region as a more potent wave dives into the upper Midwest. Return S-SE flow allows for a slight rise in H85 temps. Highs in the low-mid 40s, with upr 40s to near50 sern zones. The northern stream wave dives through the Great Lakes Sunday night and a southern stream wave precede it and pushes through the Tennessee Valley. This allows a warm front to lift through the Mid- Atlantic. Lows Sunday night will likely occur during the evening, then remain steady or rise a bit. Lows from the mid 30s nw to the low/mid 40s se. Clouds thicken and lower during the evening, with light rain breaking out along the coast initially as some semblance of a coastal trough pushes newd ahead of the approaching system and interacts with the warm front. Pcpn remains all liquid as temps are expected to remain above freezing even across the NW zones. The srn stream wave tracks across the region through midday Monday, with the nrn stream wave moving toward the Saint Lawrence Valley by aftn, which will push the associated cold front into the area. Given the 00Z data, went ahead and increased pops to likely across the west during the morning and likely pops across the east during the afternoon Forecast PoPs are highest from morning through mid- aftn. Deep-layered w-sw flow will limit QPF, which at this time is forecast to be btwn 1/4 to 1/3 inch. Milder with highs ranging from the lwr 50s across the NW to mid 60s across the SE. The cold front pushes offshore Monday night. Pcpn (liquid) lingers through the evening then remaining pt cldy NW to mstly cldy SE. Lowsin the mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday pushing any pcpn south of the Albemarle sound. Light N-NE winds keeps a good deal of clouds around. Highs upr 40s north to mid 50s south. Both the GFS/ECMWF slower in returning pcpn back north Tuesday night. Thus, went ahead and pushed back pops until after 06Z and limited slight chc (light rain) to swrn half of fa. Lows in the mid to upr 30sexcept near 40 se. Decent slug of moisture progged ahead of next strong cold front for Wed. Went with high chc pops for now, highest sern half of fa. Highs mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Interesting forecast Wednesday night in whether the cold air will come in before pcpn ends. GFS ends pcpn faster than ECMWF but both models do show enuf cold air for several hours to allow for some pcpn type issues. Thus, went ahead and introduced a mixture of rain/sleet possibly ending as light snow after midnight. Exception will be the extreme sern coastal zones where pcpn remains liquid. Lows from the mid 20s NW to mid 30s SE. Cold and dry Thursday and Friday as the next Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Highs Thursday in the upr 30s north to mid 40s south. Lows in the upr teens-lwr 20s except 25-30 at the beaches. Increasing cloudiness and cold Friday as the next system approaches from the west. Highs 35-40. Both the GFS/ECMWF have snow or mix overspreading the region Friday night with a mix / change over to rain next Saturday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions with only a few high clouds thru the fcst prd as as high pressure tracks across the area. Winds W-NW below 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Chances for rain come Monday and Wednesday as a series of cold fronts cross the area. && .MARINE... Sfc high pressure builds into the area from the west today. Have allowed the sca over the ocean to expire with seas dropping below 5 ft. Will hold onto the sca over the Bay until 7 am with gusts there still up to 20-25 kt attm. Winds then drop below 10 kt by tonight with high pressure directly over the Mid Atlc. The high then slides offshore Sun with winds becoming sly at 10-15 kt during the aftn. S winds strengthen Sun night ahead of the next cold front, with another round of marginal sca conditions psbl Mon. The cold front crosses the area Mon night, with sub-sca conditions expected for Tue with weak high pressure in the vicinity. A low pressure system/cold front then move offshore Wed, with sca conditions expected into Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS

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