Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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209 FXUS61 KAKQ 280611 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 211 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure northwest of the Bahamas will move toward the South Carolina coast Saturday and Saturday night, and will linger along the coastal Carolinas Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The current analysis continues to depict surface high pressure well off the VA/NC Coast with a strong upper level ridge centered offshore west into southern VA and NC. A warm evening is occurring with temperatures ranging through the 70s across the area. Low pressure near the Bahamas was identified as tropical depression two earlier, and continues to drift nw. Once again, shower/tstm activity was largely confined to the mountains, with any lingering cells gradually diminishing this evening, hence dry conditions are expected locally overnight. The sky should be mainly clear overnight, with lows mainly 60-65 F. For Sat, as the sfc low tracks NW towards the SC coast, the upper ridge looks to be slow to retreat/weaken over the mid Atlc, and models are showing a large zone of subsidence north of the tropical low through most of the day. Guidance also reflecting drier air, lower dew pts than Fri with values into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Over ne NC, slightly more moisture will be around and will maintain POPS at 20% in the aftn. Otherwise, partly or mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/piedmont areas (warmest NW), and in the upper 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Deeper moisture finally pushes nwd into the CWA later Sat night into Sun morning, with PWATS rising rapidly from only around 1.00" to 1.75 to 2.00" by Sun morning into the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of the remnant low into the SE coast will determine sensible wx on Sun, but models have remained consistent enough to support likely POPS most areas on Sunday as the warm and quite humid airmass will be in place. Highest POPS look to shift just inland from the coast by aftn. Periods of potentially moderate to heavy rain will alternate with a variably cloudy sky and probably some rain-free conditions. Highs on Sun generally in the upper 70s to lwr 80s. The low is slow to weaken acrs the Carolinas and get slowly transported NE Sun night/Mon as upper level trough from the W tries to push through. Potentially very wet conds from time to time. Will continue high chc to likely POPS Sun night/Mon. Warm and humid with lows 65-70 F and highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s Mon.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather conditions continue into the extended period as the remnant tropical depression (per NHC latest forecast) lingers over the Carolinas or near the Carolina coast Tuesday. Deepest moisture gets pushed offshore Tuesday as upper level energy lifts over the southeast local area. Will keep mention 30-50% POPS over the southeast half of the local area with only slight chance northeast half. The low weakens into Wednesday with an inverted trough/coastal front locating along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Lingering moisture along the coast will result in only chance POPs northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Dry conditions expected Wednesday night with a partly cloudy sky. An upstream trough approaches the region Thursday as upper level ridging remains over the western Atlantic. An associated cold front is forecast to reach the Ohio Valley early Thursday. Amplifying flow will lift the frontal boundary northward with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Piedmont and northeast North Carolina Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnant low pressure is expected to weaken off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coasts. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the week and into the weekend as the cold front approaches the region. The preference at this time is to stick with the ECMWF, which pushes the front across the region Friday. Unsettled conditions expected to persist into the weekend as the front likely stalls along the coast. Temperatures forecast generally around seasonable norms during the period. Highs low to mid 80`s with lows in the 60`s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions to prevail during the next 24 hours ending at 29/0600Z as high pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region and is not expected to break down until later this evening. Patchy fog may be possible at KECG as a moist and shallow marine layer moves up from the south and across Albemarle Sound. Maintained VIS no lower than 4SM as a tempo group around sunrise. Otherwise, skies SKC to start the day with increasing high clouds spreading into the region from south to north due to Tropical Depression Two slowly moving into the Southeast coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop in ne NC on seabreeze boundaries this aftn/evening, but confidence is not high enough to mention in TAF for KECG just yet. General trend is for skies to thicken and lower after sunset this evening...with steady wraparound precip moving into the area from south to north late tonight through Sun. Conditions likely to deteriorate to IFR cigs and visibilities by 29/1200Z...remaining low (and/or variable with MVFR conditions) into Monday due to the chance for thunderstorms. A low pressure system tracking ewd above the Great Lakes in Canada is expected to drag a cold front through the region Mon aftn/evening and collect the remnants of the weakening tropical system, thus pushing all rain offshore by either late Mon night or Tue morning. Areas of fog should be anticipated Mon night/Tue morning as high pressure starts to build back into the region. Low stratus may linger Tue-Thu, especially near the coast, due to ample moisture present, persistent onshore winds, and no discernible weather features present to mix out the lower atmosphere. Fog may also be a potential impact at all TAF sites Wed/Thu mornings until the next more well-defined cold front can cross the region late in the upcoming week.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over the western Atlantic with an area of low pressure northeast of the Bahamas. Southerly winds of 10-15 kt observed over the waters this afternoon. Waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as the area of low pressure (possibly tropical or subtropical) lifts northwest toward the South Carolina coast. Majority of the impacts (high seas and strongest winds) will be felt along the Southeast Coast, with only the threat of showers and thunderstorms for the local waters. Flow becomes southeasterly Saturday, but remains generally 10-15 kt. Seas also remain 2-3 ft, but could build to 4 ft near Duck. Rather weak gradient expected over the waters Sunday as the low remains over the Carolinas or along the Southeast coast. Southeasterly winds at or below 10 kt. Seas build to 3-4 ft. South to southeast winds at or below 15 kt persist through Tuesday as the remnant low remains over the Carolinas. Sub-small craft conditions persist through the middle of next week. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. There is a good chance for additional rain Sun/Mon with the potential to end as the wettest May on record. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...SAM CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.