Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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514 FXUS61 KAKQ 191137 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 637 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area today. A backdoor cold front pushes south across the area tonight. High pressure builds well north of the region and slides off the coast by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest MSAS indicating a sfc trof from northern VA sw along the mts with low pressure moving east off the Carolina coast. Models in general agreement that this high nudges the coastal low to near the Gulf Stream wall while the trof to the north stalls due to high pressure building south from Canada. Tsctns/numerical guid indicate the sct-bkn ac/ci associated with the sfc trof thins out later today allowing for pt to mostly sunny skies today. H85 temps drop to around 6 to 8C, but will be offset by downsloping light NW flow. Above normal temperatures continue (+1.5 - 2.0 st dev) with highs in the lwr 70s except mid to upr 60s along the coast. Readings may hover around 60 at the beaches. Record highs appear safe but may be approached at SBY. See CLI section below. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure over eastern Canada pushes a backdoor cold front south across the are this evening. The 1030+ mb high continues to build ewd Monday resulting in onshore flow and cooler conditions near the water while the Piedmont stays mild. Lows tonight in the 40s. Highs Monday range from the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore, low to mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, to the low 70s over the Piedmont. High pressure prevails over the region Monday night. Colder with lows dropping into the low/mid 30s NE to the upper 30s/around 40 W under a mostly clear sky. The high slides offshore Tuesday as a weakening cold front approaches from the W. Mixing will be limited, only to about 950-925mb, with high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 50s NE to the lwr 60s SW. Dry with increasing clouds by aftn. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night and settles over the Southeast coastal waters on Wed. The area continues to sit in the middle of split flow aloft (primarily westerly flow) with active systems passing well north and well south. Models still struggling in regard to how far south to bring precip associated with nrn system. However, available shortwave moisture/energy is still being sheared apart. Have maintained ongoing precip forecast by keeping a slight chance for showers mainly across nwrn half of CWA during Tue night with dry conditions for Wed as aforementioned shortwave moves offshore. Otherwise, expect a dry forecast through Thu night with temperatures running anywhere from 15-20 degrees above seasonal normals. Lows generally mid 40s to mid 50s. Highs generally mid-upper 60s to lower 70s inland/low-mid 60s immediate coast. Next big system to potentially impact the Mid Atlantic Region exits the Plains Thu night and tracks northeast into the Great Lakes on Fri. Increasing south winds and decent warming ahead of a strong cold front is anticipated for Fri/Fri night. Scattered showers will be possible Fri aftn/evening and maybe even some thunder...but only if the timing of the frontal passage doesn`t change (i.e. the arrival of the front will likely slow down its ewd progression as upper level troughing digs behind the sfc low). Forecast highs for Fri are currently in the low-mid 70s inland/low-mid 60s beaches, however they could easily end up being several degrees warmer due to a tightening pressure gradient and subsequent well-mixed environment, ample warm air advection occurring ahead of the front, and longer daytime hours as we approach meteorological spring. Lows Fri night will be highly dependent on when the frontal passage occurs. Warm temps should be anticipated through most of the night with readings falling in the Piedmont and far nw counties closer to sunrise. For now, lows Fri night will be around 50F (+/- a few degrees). && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCT to BKN AC/CI thins out as the day wears on due to high pressure building in from the west. A dry cold front moves south across the area later today shifting the winds into the NNW at less than 10 KTS. SKC expected after 00Z. OUTLOOK...Sct shwrs possible Tuesday night. Otw, dry wx through Thursday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through at least mid week. A trough of low pres slides through the area this morng as low pres develops off the SE cst, with 10-15 kt SW winds shifting to the NW by later this morng. Waves over the Bay 1-2 ft with seas over cstl wtrs 2-3 ft. Similar conditions into tonight with a slight uptick in winds (up to ~15 kt) as a weak cold front drops through the area. High pres then builds in from the west Mon, settling over the wtrs Mon night into Tue allowing for benign marine conditions to continue. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for today: * Site 2/19 Forecast highs * RIC: 78 (1961) 73 * ORF: 73 (1907) 68 * SBY: 72 (1961) 71 * ECG: 77 (1939) 69 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.