Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261749 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 149 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION TODAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIDEWATER AREA INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND FAR SE GA. NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS SOME SCT SHRAS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE CONTINUED ISO TO SCT SHRA WORDING ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA FOR THIS MORNING, AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ALONG THE FRONT EARLY TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR RAIN CHCS TODAY, WITH HIGH RES MODELS STILL STRUGGLING TO DIAGNOSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVEN 3-6 HOURS OUT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING, THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN, AIDED BY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST, LIGHT SEABREEZE AND SHEARING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 30-40%) TODAY AGAIN APPEAR CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SE OF HWY 158 IN NE NC ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. DYNAMICS/SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL DON`T APPEAR TO FAVOR SEVERE WX TODAY, WITH PW SLOWLY DROPPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ALONG THE SE COAST BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND, ANOTHER DRY, PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EAST, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG SFC HI PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FM THE W THU/FRIDAY, WITH THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETUP BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN JUST OFFSHORE THU/FRI AS THE HI BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC BY THU NGT/FRI. AS SUCH...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SIMILARLY PIVOT OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A 20 POP AT MOST ON THU ACROSS THE SE, WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. VAST MAJORITY OF OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AND EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PD...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES (BY SUN).WILL BRING HIGHER POPS (25-40%) INTO THE FA...THEN WILL CONT W/ LINGER MNLY MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA MON AND TUE. TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE PD. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BKN-OVC CIGS (MNLY 5-10KFT) CONTG ACRS SE VA/NE NC. ALSO...ISOLD SHRAS FOUND JUST INLAND FM THE TAF SITES AT ORF/ECG...ALONG W/ NE WNDS AVGG 10-15 KT. FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN SLO TO SETTLE SE AWAY FM THE FA THROUGH TNGT...STALLING JUST OFF THE CSTL CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHRA PSBL INVOF ORF/ECG THIS AFTN/EVE...KEPT OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WILL CONT W/ BKN-OVC (VFR) CIGS INTO/THROUGH TNGT IN SE VA/NE NC BEFORE CLEARING FM THE NNW FOR THU. SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS THU THROUGH FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/ ONSHORE WNDS. SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL NR/JUST E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND. && .MARINE... SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS... PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SHOWERS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT GETS SHUNTED SEWD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE N-NE TODAY AOB 15KT...THEN BECOME PREDOMINANTLY ONSHORE THU INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KT ON AVERAGE. SOME BUILDUP OF SEAS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. OTHERWISE...WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 2-3FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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