Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281752 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB/LSA

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