Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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723 FXUS61 KAKQ 261730 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 130 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building across the Southeast states this afternoon will promote dry and pleasant conditions. Warmer temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc lo pres continues to track E of New England this afternoon. Meanwhile, sfc hi pres builds over the SE CONUS. Deep layered WNW flow provides the local area w/ dry and comfortable conditions under a partly to mostly sunny sky. W winds will be gusty to 20-30 mph. Highs mainly in the u70s-l80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW tonight into Sat. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA. SPC has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA in a slight risk...w/ remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/KG, with 30-40 kt of effective shear and steep low- level lapse rates. Main threats will be large hail and localized damaging winds. Otherwise...mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight-Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the upr 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Highs Sat from the mid/upr 70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the mid/upr 80s inland. Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. Another S/W aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/ daytime heating likely results in SCT convective development. Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly to mostly cloudy Sun w/ highs mainly in the low/mid 80s, except 70s Eastern Shore and at the beaches. Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday across NE NC and south VA. High pressure builds across the region for Tue Night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions expected. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period. Gusty W winds to 20-25 kt will diminish this evening. Sct showers and storms return for Saturday afternoon into early next week as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled. && .MARINE... Low pressure off the NJ coast will continue to move NE and away from the area today. Meanwhile, another trof will rotate around this low. Models continue to show a decent pressure gradient behind the departing low through mid afternoon with diminishing winds by evening. Thus, SCA headlines remain in place today for WSW winds 15-25 kts and 4-5 ft seas. High pressure to the south builds into the region tonight and Sat resulting in winds aob 15 kts, seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes onshore once again Sat night and Sun as a frontal system stalls across the region. Expect winds aob 15 kts, seas 3-4 ft. Sct aftrn / evening tstrms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend as weak low pressure tracks along the frontal boundary. The start of the 2017 rip current season features a moderate threat of rips along the lower Delmarva beaches with a low risk over VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will continue the elevated water levels through the weekend. Coastal flood warning expired but Cambridge very slow to drop below minor flooding levels so issued an advisory through 12Z. Otw, all statements / advisories have expired. This afternoons high tide cycle is forecasted to be low enough at most sites to remain below action stage. However, tonights high tide cycle may required another round of statements or advisories as levels will likely exceed action stage and approach minor flooding thresholds once again. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.