Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310829 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 429 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY THIS MORNG...COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NE NC WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVR SE VA INTO NE NC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND OFF THE CST DURING TODAY...WITH HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FM THE WNW. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LWR (MORE COMFORTABLE) ACRS JUST ABT THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT FAR SE VA AND NE NC...WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP OVR THESE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENG. HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...EXCEPT MID 80S AT THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR DRY WX AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON SAT. LOWS TNGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE LWR 90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE CST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW SHOWN TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA SAT AFTN INTO SUN MORNG. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN MUSTER UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS NOT ALL THAT CONVINCED THAT IT WILL. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. REMAINING DRY MOST PLACES ON SUN...AS HI PRES REBOUNDS. THERE`S A MAINLY SLGT (20%) CHC OF ISLTD SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR SE WITH A WEAK CSTL BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...EXCEPT MID 80S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP INTO TUE...BUT THEN DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WED/THU...THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING MUCH STRONGER/PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF (OR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS). TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. GENLY LOOKS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30% POP IN NE NC DUE TO POTENTIAL SEABREEZE. FOR TUE-WED...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN HOT WX FOR TUE...AS BOTH MODELS HAVE RISING H8 TEMPS AND A W/SW FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP DUE MAINLY TO A WEAK CAP WITH H5 HEIGHTS ONLY 585-588 DM. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND 90-95 F AT THE COAST. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR WED/THU...GFS WOULD SUGGEST MUCH COOLER CONDS...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO PERHAPS 100 F. WHILE THE ECMWF/WPC PATTERN WILL GENLY BE FAVORED (COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THU AFTN)...THINK THE DRIER/HOTTER WX WILL ULTIMATELY NOT BE AS HOT AS PREDICTED DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET/HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST MONTH. FOR NOW WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH HIGHS WED 90-95 F AND THU UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S. DEW PTS ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW 60S WEST OF I-95 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...MID 60S WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES STAYING BELOW 105 F NEXT WEEK. AS FOR POPS...WILL ONLY HAVE ~20% POPS WED...RISING TO 30% MOST AREAS THU W/ THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE N. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 07Z...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WILL MOVE ACROSS PENINSULA FROM PHF TOWARD ORF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE SHORT LIVED, BUT WE ARE NOTING PERIODS OF MVFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS SHORT LIVED CIG RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THROUGH PHF/ORF BY 08-10Z AND ECG BY ~12Z. MOS HAS MVFR VSBYS AT SBY THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT, CLEARING BY AROUND/JUST AFTER DAWN AND WITH HI RES MODELS IN AGREEMENT, HAVE GONE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE TAF. N/NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT W/ A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SATURDAY. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS IS IN THE FCST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SERN PORTIONS. && .MARINE... SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AS LATEST OBS SHOW W-NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS, WITH W-SW WINDS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN WATERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BECOME NNW BY MID-MORNING AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SLOWLY E-NE OF THE VA/NC COAST TODAY DRAGGING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. FRONT WEAKENS JUST SSE OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WON`T TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO YIELD WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET ~15 KT WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SFC WATER TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80 F OVER THE LWR BAY/RIVERS. COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL CARRY PREDOMINATE 15 KT WINDS IN THE BAY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS WORTH OF GUSTS TO 20 KT. THIS LIKELY WON`T BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR THE BAY IF NEEDED. WAVES 1-2FT ATTM INCREASE TO 2-3 FT BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SEAS AVG 3-4 FT N AND 2-3 FT S. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE MIDDAY...BECOMING E TONIGHT. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR TNGT AND SAT...AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS BRIEFLY VEER OFFSHORE (W-NW) EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BACK TO THE E-SE SUN AFTN/EVE...AND SSW MON/TUE, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WAVES SAT INTO NEXT WEEK AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH QUICKER FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WATERS/EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOMALIES MAY RISE AGAIN WITH EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON SLY (CHANNELING) FLOW UP THE BAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. AS WITH YESTERDAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES LOOKING TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD/CAMBRIDGE COULD YIELD SOME SPOTTY NUISANCE FLOODING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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