Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220828 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT- OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS. A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING TO RECOVER. HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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