Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281844 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 244 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SCT-BKN CU...WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID ONCE AGN THIS AFTN. ISOLD/SCT STMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN E OF MTNS...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD SHRA/STM ELSW. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PCLDY THROUGH THIS EVE...W/ HIGHEST POPS WNW...AND ACRS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. SHEAR RMNS WK...AND ORGANIZED STRONG STMS UNLIKELY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LCLLY HVY RA IN SLO MOVING STMS. ANY CONVECTION WINDS DOWN FOR OVRNGT HRS...W/ CONTS P-MCLDY. LO TEMPS 65-70F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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OUR PD OF SUMMER-LIKE WX TO CONT THROUGH THE WKND. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS THE FA BEGINNING FRI AS HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY. SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA WITH ONLY 10-20% POPS ELSW. BY SAT...CDFNT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE OH VLY...RMNG FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY WNW AND MNLY SKC TWD THE CST. POPS 20% POP INLAND...10% AT THE CST. CDFNT FM THE NW CONTS TO SLOLY APPROACH SUN. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE P/MSNY. WILL INCRS POPS TO 40-60% FAR NNW PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS...TAPERING TO 10% IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC. THE BULK OF PCPN XPCD TO BE ALG AND BEHIND THE FNT (AND THAT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL LT SUN). HI TEMPS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS FRI NGT M/U60S. HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN FM THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND...70S TO L80S AT THE CST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE INTERMOUTAIN WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF WAITING UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 40-50% POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN WEAKLY SHEARED SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER UNORGANIZED. POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE 30-40% MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO 20-30% BY TUESDAY AND SUB-15% THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR TO START OFF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. STAGNANT WX PATTERN OF LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TDA WITH SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES WELL W OF THE MID ATLC. S WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTN/EVENG...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI ENUF TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS PSBL OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL...BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES TNGT. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI- SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATER. THE RESULT IS A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT. WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED TO GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS). HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION...WASHING OUT WEST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES SELY THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 KT. SELY FLOW AOB 10 KT PERSISTS FRI. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS REMAIN SUB-SCA. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT FRI NIGHT-SAT THANKS TO PERSISTENT AND INCREASING SE FLOW. COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAS MARINE...SAM

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