Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141917 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England this evening as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the coast. This area of high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Sunday. A cold front passes through the region late Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sfc hi pres extends from off the New England coast SW to SC-GA this afternoon while a weak(ening) trough hangs on along the coast NE NC to the Delmarva. Maritime air remains reluctant to break its grip along-E of the I 95 corridor (w/ even patchy -RA/DZ hanging on toward the coast). Meanwhile...conditions have improved substantially across the Piedmont. Any clearing across the ern portions of the local area will be very slow (by) late tonight. Have added patchy FG across much of the FA...most likely developing (well) inland earlier than toward the coast. Lows in the u50s-l60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... May start out mostly cloudy Sun...esp toward the coast...then becoming mostly sunny as low level flow becomes SSW. This will produce unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be in the l-m80s. A cold front crosses the mountains Sun night...then continues to press ESE through the local area late Sun night into Mon morning...passing through far SE VA/NE NC late Mon morning per 14/12z model consensus. Becoming mostly cloudy over the NW half of the area after midnight Mon...while remaining partly cloudy SE. Models continue to show a narrow band of lift w/ the front...w/ the highest PoPs 40-60% across the NW portion of the area late Sun night...then shifting to the SE portion of the area Mon morning through early Mon afternoon. Lows Sun night range from the m-u50s NW...to the l-m60s SE. Clearing NW 1/2 of the FA Mon while remaining mostly cloudy SE. Highs Mon will generally be in the m-u60s (temperatures may remain steady across SE VA/NE NC...or slowly fall a few degrees due to clouds/pcpn and winds becoming a bit gusty from the NNW. Sfc hi pres pushes the cold front well E and S Mon night...then that high builds over the FA Tue. Mainly SKC and cool/dry wx w/ lows Mon night in the l-m40s...u40s at the coast...highs Tue 60-65F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front is expected to clear the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A few showers may linger in the far southeast into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being ushered into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have become accustomed too with temperatures only in the mid 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period with highs reaching the mid 70s by Friday. It should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will be close to normal for mid October. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread IFR stratus and patchy areas of light rain and drizzle continue to plague the region due to onshore flow and a weak area of low pressure off the Va/NC coast. Conditions are expected to show little improvement through the day and will be worsened by fog developing overnight with light wind and abundant moisture. Drier air will move into the area late Sunday morning into the afternoon bringing VFR conditions. A cold front pushes across the region late Sunday into Monday bringing the chance for some showers and gusty NW wind. High pressure and VFR conditions spread into the region Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... The models are struggling to handle the winds associated with the weak low off the NC coast. Guidance suggest that winds should be diminishing over the waters already, but obs show that winds are still in the 15 to 20 kt range over the lower Ches Bay. So have amended the forecast to keep winds up for another 6 hours at low end sca levels on the Lower Bay. Seas are slowly beginning to drop over the coastal waters, but expect to keep the seas above 5 FT through the sca period, 6z Sunday. The surface low will slowly elongate today and fill as the surface high pressure system slides off the NE coast and gradually reforms into more of a Bermuda High with Southerly flow developing on Sunday. The S/SW flow will increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep across the waters. Behind this cold front, expect a strong surge of cool canadian air to arrive. Expect small craft conditions to develop Monday afternoon into Monday night. High pressure slides over the area by Tuesday morning with winds relax below sca levels. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...ESS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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