Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301600 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become centered across the eastern states this weekend through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Minor changes made for the afternoon and early evening to account for Radar/Sat trends. HRRR/NCAR WRF ensembles handling current convection well, and have leaned in its direction for the afternoon. Shower activity which fired along piedmont trough continues across metro Richmond. This activity is in association with main shortwave sliding off to our north. Expect showers/storms to become focused farther south across South Central and SE VA/NC Coastal plain counties for the afternoon, in association with yet another weak perturbation sliding across the E TN Valley at midday. PW values per GEFS/SREF reach +2 st dev through the afternoon, so any showers/tstms will continue to have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rain, although the forcing is not such to support sustained high rain rates. NAM/GFS generally depict 1200-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE this afternoon along with 25-30kt of 0-6km bulk shear on the srn flank of stronger westerlies to the n of the local area. As a result, a few loosely organized tstms are possible, which could produce localized strong wind gusts (wet microbursts). However, mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km will be a limiting factor. Temperatures early this morning range from the low to mid 70s. Temperatures should rise quickly into the 80s this morning under a partly to mostly sunny sky, before cu rapidly develop late morning into the afternoon. Highs will generally be in the mid/upper 80s with near 90 se. Lingering sct showers/tstms gradually lift ne this evening toward the Ern Shore, then slide offshore overnight. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy and humid with lows in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The Midwest trough will slide into the region Sunday into Monday and take up residence over the eastern Conus. Mainly diurnally driven showers/tstms are possible Sunday with PoPs in the 30-50% range. With the trough in place will also see temps remain close to normal. Highs Sunday range from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south. The upper trough sharpens even further across the East Coast Sunday night into Monday as a more substantial shortwave trough tracks across the area helping to push cold front through the region by midday Monday. Pcpn chances Monday will be highest over se VA/ne NC, so chc pops (30%) will continue there, with slight chc (20%) elsewhere. Highs again generally range from the upr 80s to low 90s after morning lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary. With sfc high pressure building into New England early in the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90 degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints, and overall precip chances. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Other than isolated IFR/MVFR fog early this morning, expect mainly VFR conditions today into Sun morning. However, the combination of a warm front, deeper low level moisture, Shortwave energy, and vertical motion moving acrs the area this aftn into tngt, will bring a decent chc for showers and tstms at the taf sites. Did not mention any pcpn in tafs at this time due to POPs being 50% or less. Lesser chcs late tngt thru Sun morning, as that energy moves off the coast. There will be chcs again Sun aftn into Sun ngt, as a trough of low pressure lingers over the area. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any tstms. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today thru Sun ngt. Winds were NE- SE arnd 5 kt or less early this morning ovr the waters, and will become SE 5 to 10 kt during today, as a warm front approaches and moves into the region. Winds will then become S then SW later tngt into Sun morning, as the warm front pushes off the coast. A cold front will then drop acrs the waters and off the coast Mon into Tue morning. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. Seas will average 2-3 ft thru the period with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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