Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140004 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 704 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight through Sunday...with a return to colder weather that will last through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Little change/update necessary to forecast this evening as Sfc front continues to push farther offshore, as 1041 mb sfc high pressure is now centered over the mid-MS Valley and continues to slowly move ESE. Latest satellite imagery showing that skies have cleared across the NW 1/2 of the CWA, while BKN/OVC conditions will prevail through most of the evening over the SE 1/2. Some spotty light drizzle/sprinkles pushing through Currituck NC, but this will be off to the SE by 8pm or so and no additional PCPN is expected as drier air continues to filter in from the NW. Upper trough axis to linger along the coast overnight, but even along the coast skies should become mostly clear after 06Z. Early morning lows in the mid to upper teens inland...mid to upper 20s SE VA/NC coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Slowly modifying ~1040mb arctic sfc high pres builds east toward the eastern Lakes/interior NE Sunday...then retreats NE away from the local area Mon ahead of next potent shortwave, which will drop out of the Canadian prairies Sun night/Mon. Despite partly to mostly sunny sky...highs will only be in the l-m30s Sun...then only slightly higher Mon (mainly m-u30s). Lows Sun night will be in the teens inland...l20s at the coast. Sfc high slips farther off up into New England ahead of approaching nrn stream clipper system and associated surface feature Mon night and Tuesday. Good model agreement that wx remains dry in this period, with developing pre-frontal S-SW flow allowing temperatures to rebound into the 40s to near 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Primary challenge in the long term period is with strongly amplified upper trough over the eastern third of the CONUS...with the potential for coastal low pressure developing as the potent shortwave ejects E-NE. Overall, 12z/13 model guidance (ECMWF/GFS/CMC) is overall a bit more progressive and flatter with moisture transport/upper level flow in the midweek period. However, even accepting this solution, a period of precipitation would be a reasonable expectation as the front pushes across the local area. For now, have held onto snow wording on Wednesday...with a period of showers possible as early as late Tue night. Turned rain showers over to snow showers with frontal passage per PoWT/Partial thickness tools...with snow chances continuing into Wednesday in association with coastal system potential. Should this quicker solution pan out, wx impacts would be minimal across the local area. However, it remains much too early to dismiss any solution. Please continue monitoring forecasts through this period. On the good side, models in good agreement that flow flips flatter into the late week period, with temperatures strongly moderating to and above normal values once again into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR at all area terminals as of 00Z, though cigs of 4-7k ft will persist for a few more hrs across SE VA/NE NC. N-NW winds will continue gusting to 20-25 kt near the coast and eastern shore, while diminishing to 10-15 kt or less inland. Becoming mainly SKC overnight and Sunday. Winds on Sun will veer slightly and avg NNE, still gusting to 20-25kt near the coast and 15-20kt inland through 18Z, before waning towards sunset. Outlook: ~1040mb sfc high pres locates W of the region early next week, providing mainly VFR conditions. Unsettled wx w/ possible restrictions late Tue- Wed as next cold front crosses the region.
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&& .MARINE... Have slightly adjusted SCA headlines thru Sun aftn for the Ches Bay and the Lower James, and until 7 am Mon morning for the coastal waters, due to strong NW or N winds ushering CAA into the area, as Canadian high pressure builds in. Once again, have light freezing spray mentioned most areas beginning late tonight thru Sun night given the forecast wind speeds combined with the arctic airmass. The high builds over the area Sun night into Mon evening with winds and seas/waves below SCA levels. Another cold front or low pressure system will impact the waters Tue night into Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LKB/MAM MARINE...TMG

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