Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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933 FXUS61 KAKQ 052015 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 415 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LATE THIS AFTN...UPR AIR LO PRES WAS DROPPING INTO WRN NC...WITH SFC LO PRES JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. LATEST RDR SHOWED AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF SCNTRL AND INTERIOR SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. HEAVIER SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA HAVE PRODUCED .50 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. THE UPR LO WILL MOVE ACRS NC THRU EARLY TNGT...THEN LIFT NE TO THE SE VA CST BY 12Z FRI. WHILE...THE SFC LO WILL LIFT NNE OFF THE NC AND VA CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS MOVNG ENE AND OVR THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/ERN VA...NE NC AND THE LWR MD ERN SHR LATE THIS EVENG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACRS SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC INTO FRI MORNG. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING WITH SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS OR FLOOD ADVISORIES THIS EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. LOWS TNGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPR LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST ON FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN PA/NJ BY 12Z SAT. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH POPS 60-80% FOR MOST AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER NIGHTFALL WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPR LOW. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS FRI 60-65. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 50S COAST. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRIER DAY WITH THE UPR LOW WEAKENING AND PUSHING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY AFTN...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE VA PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NE NC...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S MOST AREAS MON AS STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING SLY FLOW T0 DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLC. DRY WX EXPECTED WITH LO PRES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE FOR SOME OVERRUNNING PCPN MON NGT/TUE WELL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE COMING WED (30-40% POPS) AS THE LO APPROACHES FM THE W. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S UNDER CONTINUED SLY FLOW...WITH MORNG LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THU (30% POPS) WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE/WED.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS REDUCING VSBYS TO BTWN 3-5 SM AT TIMES. SBY MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST NEXT 4-8 HOURS AS WELL DUE TO UPR LVL LOW MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. ISLTD TSTMS PSBL WITH THE UPR LVL LOW BUT CHC TO LOW ATTM TO TIME INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SCT SHRAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT COMES ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SCA FOR THE LWR CHES BAY AND LWR JAMES RIVER TODAY PER CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS A BIT. PVS DSCN: LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA...AS BROAD UPPER LOW BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC THROUGH FRI. HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS IN THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND FOR TODAY WITH E-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO FILLED IN SCA HEADLINES FOR REMAINDER OF OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER ZONES WITH SEAS ALREADY AT 4 FT AT THIS HOUR AT BUOYS 96 & 100 (AND PROGGED TO BUILD TO ~5FT LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN PER NWPS AND WAVEWATCH). ALSO EXTENDED SCA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PREDOMINATE NE FLOW PERSISTENT IN THIS AREA. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT (SIG WAVE HEIGHTS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.) WINDS DROP OFF A BIT ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN, ALLOWING WINDS TO BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE FRI AFTN AND NIGHT W/WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-15KT. USED A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION BASED ON THE GEFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION, WHICH ALL HANDLE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SIMILARLY DURING THE FRI/SAT PERIOD. THIS SECOND LOW EVENTUALLY GETS KICKED OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY/SUN NGT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO DOUBT ANY ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA SAT/SUN...AVERAGING 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE WE DID SEE SOME SPOTTY NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING ANOMALIES WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD EXCEEDANCE OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS, AN UPGRADE TO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG COASTAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT`S CYCLE. IN THE INTERIM, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS TO REFLECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MARGINAL/NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATER THIS MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024- 025. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ084>086- 089-090-093-095>097-522>525. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ098- 100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ099. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB

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