Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
102 FXUS61 KAKQ 261954 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 254 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure extending from the Southeast states through the Middle Atlantic will shift offshore tonight. Broad southwest flow behind this high will allow temperatures to warm to well above normal again through mid week before a cold front passes through the area Wednesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quiet weather expected tonight with high pressure in control. Mid clouds over the TN valley associated with broad warm advection will spread into the Middle Atlantic late tonight as the high shifts offshore. However, no precipitation is expected with these clouds. Rather, they will likely keep min temps moderated slightly. Still, much of the night will be cloud free and calm, so the expecation is that there will be widespread temps in the upper 20s/low 30s tonight. Not unusual for this time of year though, even despite the recent warm temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Monday will end up being another quiet and much warmer day with warm advection on the back side of the high helping temps to warm well into the 60s. There may be some mid clouds around but otherwise any precipitation associated with the warm advection should stay north of the region where a weak upper disturbance will move through the building ridge aloft. No major changes to the remainder of the forecast through Wednesday. Broad warm advection and increasing moisture will allow for small chances for showers late Monday night into Tuesday. However, the best chance for rain would be later on Tuesday with a weak upper disturbance moving through combined with a weak surface trough/warm front. The warm front moves north of the area by late Tuesday night leaving the area in the warm sector for the day on Wednesday. It should be very warm on Wednesday with temperatures touching 80 in many locations as there will likely be some sunshine with 850mb temperatures close to +15C. With the cold front and approaching trough being delayed per the GFS/ECMWF, mainly just expect a gusty and dry day on Wednesday although one could not completely rule out a shower or storm later in the day due to the developing pre-frontal trough over the piedmont and the NW part of the forecast area. Will therefore keep small chance pops in those areas on Wednesday but dry elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sfc high pressure will remain anchored well off the SE coast Tuesday night into Wednesday with broad S-SW flow across the local area. Meanwhile, an upper trough digs across the Plains/Midwest with sfc low pressure making its way into lower Michigan by 00Z Thu. The low the lifts NE into/thru New England thru Wed night/Thursday with its attendant cold front sweeping thru the local area Thursday morning. Expecting an increase in PoPs across the NW counties Wed aftn (30-50%), then high chance to likely PoPs areawide Wed night (40-60%). Chc PoPs (30-50%) linger into Thursday, especially in the morning across SE areas while drying out from NW to SE thru the rest of the day. Warm Wednesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Behind the cold front, cooler temps are set to arrive next Thu-Sat. Highs Thursday in the 50s to low 60s. Highs Friday/Saturday in the 40s to low 50s. A quick moving system may bring another chance of pcpn on Friday. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quiet weather is expected through the forecast period with VFR conditions. Some mid clouds are expected to move into the area later tonight and continue through Monday but should be of little consequence. Some MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front moves north of the area. Another cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure Thursday. This front will bring another chance for thunderstorms to the region late Wed into Wed night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Update...SCA cancelled for srn Ches Bay. Wind gusts are below 20kt. Continued SCA for nrn Ches Bay through noon due to gusts around 20kt...especially for locations on the east side of the Bay. Previous discussion...Early this morning, a cold front was pushing out to sea, while high pressure was cntrd over wrn TN. NW winds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this morning, will diminish and become W late this morning into this aftn. SCA`s will end at 10 am over the Ches Bay, and end at noon over the coastal waters, as winds/waves/seas diminish or subside below criteria. High pressure will build over the waters this evening, then slides offshore/out to sea for later tonight into Wed. S winds less than 15 kt expected for later tonight into Tue morning, then a little stronger SSW winds expected for Tue aftn into Wed. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest. Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...MRD MARINE...BMD/TMG CLIMATE...AKQ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.