Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180311 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1011 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the northwest later tonight, and pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds in from the west by Wednesday night and settles over the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night as another front moves in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Latest analysis shows ~1009 mb sfc low pressure near Lake Ontario, with strong high pressure centered over eastern Canada, ridging S into Maine. A sfc warm front is rather diffuse but is located over nrn VA NE MD and will continue to lift through the region overnight. Radar showing scattered showers over far SE VA/NE NC with rainfall amounts rather light. SSW flow has allowed temperatures to remain mild through the evening with readings averaging in the mid/upper 50s, with some low 50s lingering over far NE portions. The best lift and moisture convergence ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front looks to reside over far SE VA/NE NC overnight where likely PoPs remain, with 20-30% elsewhere. The cold front passes through around daybreak Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny along with a warm day with highs at least in the lower 60s. However, over the east and NE, with a strong shortwave aloft tracking through ern/SE VA from 12-18Z, expect some redeveloping clouds from 15-21Z and will maintain at least 20-30% POPS (30-50% early on over far se VA and ne NC). Temps may fall a few degrees in the aftn over the N.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. Next system approaches from the W/SW Thu night/Fri, the latest ECMWF being a little slower/weaker than the GFS. Still looks like enough of a good overrunning scenario to maintain likely POPS all areas for Fri. Undercut MOS by a few degrees with highs to avg in the upper 40s NW to lower-mid 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temps will continue to dominate the extended period acrs the area. A warm front and associated low pressure will lift NE or E of the area Fri night, with weak high pressure building over the region for Sat into Sat evening. Showers will be exiting NE or E of the CWA Fri night, with dry wx for Sat. Sun into early Tue, strong upper low pressure will lift fm the srn Plains/lower MS valley northeast into ern OH/wrn PA. This will result in waves of moisture/strong lift up into the region during this period. So, have gone with likely POPs everywhere, esply Sun aftn into Mon evening. Pcpn chances decrease fm SSW to NNE Mon night into Tue morning, as low pressure moves away to the NNE. Dry wx should return for Tue aftn/evening. Max temps will range fm the lower 50s to the lower 60s, with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tricky forecast tonight, have seen conditions improve to mainly VFR this evening, but am expecting conditions to deteriorate later tonight and into Wednesday morning as a cold front approaches the area. The highest precipitation potential with the front will remain across southern and coastal portions of the area. Ceilings will vary from MVFR to IFR late tonight and Wednesday morning before improving back to VFR after 12Z Wednesday. Model guidance also continues to hint at a dense fog potential. Believe that increasing SW winds ahead of the front should keep the dense fog potential limited, but did bring visibilities down to 2SM. Winds shift to the NW and remain breezy behind the frontal passage. Outlook: High pressure builds over the area behind the cold front allowing for a brief return to VFR conditions Wednesday night and into Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible late Thursday and into Friday as the next low pressure system approaches the region. Dry weather returns for Saturday. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tngt thru Thu. Warm front will lift well north of the area tngt, as a cold front pushes into and acrs the waters Wed morning. Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt this evening thru late tngt, will become west then northwest Wed morning into early Wed aftn. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft. High pressure will build into and over the waters for Wed night thru Thu, with NW or N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft. The high slides into the Atlc late Thu night into Fri morning, with a warm front lifting into and acrs the waters Fri into Fri night. Winds will be SE or S 10 kt or less. A coastal low pushes well out to sea on Sat, with weak high pressure building in behind it during the day. Winds will be N then NE or E 10 kt or less during Sat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJB MARINE...TMG

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