Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221141 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 641 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast today as a backdoor cold front drops south into the area. The front lifts back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows broad Bermuda high pressure offshore with a cold front just north of the fa. Aloft, a highly anomalous upper-level ridge is positioned off the eastern seaboard. Tricky forecast for today as a lot depends on how far south the front slides. In general, based off the strength of the ridge aloft and how most 00Z guidance initialized, favored to warmer solutions for today (slower movement of the front). There will be a wide range of high temps from north to south...current forecast calls for highs ranging from 55-60 Lwr MD Eastern Shore to mid-upr 70s far southern areas. After some patchy morning fog, there will be a chance for -RA over the northern half of the fa, closer to the front. Any rain amounts will be light, with the pcpn eventually transitioning to more of a -RA/-DZ combo this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cooler tonight with continued light rain/drizzle/fog across the north due to a moist onshore flow. Lows low-mid 40s north, upr 40s- lwr 50s south. Kept chc showers over northern areas Fri as the front slips back north as a warm front. Highs in the lwr 50s north to upr 60s-lwr 70s far south. Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector Fri night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid-upr 40s ern shore to mid-upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs especially over NW areas. Highs mid 60s ern shore to the mid- upr 70s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface cyclone staying over the Great Lakes with the surface cold front moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be north of I-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located. However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a lingering shower may persist across NC on Monday, it will most likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday, allowing return S-SW flow to develop. An approaching front Wed afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into Wed night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of the forecast. Sunday will be another warm day with S-SW flow ahead of the strong warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s despite the +12C 850mb temps. Temps closer to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the high pressure builds overhead. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front is sliding into far northern portions of the fa this morning. Expect MVFR cigs near the front, with LIFR/IFR conditions briefly this morning south of the front due to cigs and/or vsbys. Although areas north of the front (e.g. SBY) may be stuck with the low cigs for most of the day, expect clouds to break over southern areas by mid morning, before aviation conditions once again deteriorate late today/this evening as the front slides farther south. Limited mention of VCSH today to SBY, with other areas expected to stay dry. Outlook: Expecting a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in drizzle/fog in moist onshore flow tonight/Fri. Front slips back north of the area later Friday into Saturday. A second cold front will drop across the area Sunday night, with another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period.
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&& .MARINE... Backdoor cold front to slowly push south through the waters later today into tonight. SW winds averaging 10 kt will shift to the E and then NNE behind the front. Sub-SCA conditions to prevail for the most part but does appear to be enough of a cold air push over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island tonight/Fri morning to raise SCA headlines there for NE winds of 15-25 kt and seas building to 4- 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds will genly be 10-15 kt with 3-4 ft seas and waves in the Bay tonight to 2-3 ft. A brief period of gusts to 20-25 kt possible in the Bay but looks to be too short of a duration to raise any headlines. For Fri/Fri night, the front slowly lifts back N, gradually shifting winds back to the SE and then the SW. Front then mainly N of the region Sat into Sun, although it may stall in the vicinity of the northern coastal waters. SW winds to avg 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt, especially on Sunday. Cold front to cross the area Sun night/Mon with little cold air push so headlines do not appear likely at this time unless a significant wave of low pressure develops along the front Mon. && .CLIMATE... Record highs and record high mins were set at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City Wed 2/21. At Norfolk, the record high was tied and the record high min was set. See RER products for details. For today 2/22, record highs and record high mins will be possible and these values are listed below. **Please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar date values so the the records are not complete this morning (temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight). * Date: Today/Thu 2/22 * Site: Record High...Record High Min * RIC: 73 (1985) 52 (1913) * ORF: 77 (1937) 55 (1878) * SBY: 70 (1997) 50 (1996) * ECG: 77 (2003) 56 (1997) Very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25. * Record highs * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985) 83 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012) 81 (2017) * SBY: 77 (2012) 80 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985) 78 (2017) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...

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