Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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438 FXUS61 KAKQ 192239 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 639 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend southward from Canada into the southern Appalachians through the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track north well offshore of the Delmarva through Wednesday, then meanders off the southern New England coast Thursday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Jose is situated ~250 miles offshore this afternoon. The latest satellite trends indicate Jose is starting to take more of a jog to the northeast, which follows along with NHC`s latest track which takes Jose north then northeast well off the Delmarva through tonight. Widespread showers are currently ongoing across far eastern VA and and lower MD and hi-res guidance indicates these will continue thru 7pm or so before dissipating. With Jose moving away tonight, expect to see drier air sweep eastward overnight with mainly clear to partly cloudy conditions (probably mostly cloudy until daybreak lower MD eastern shore). Will have chance to likely PoPs (30-70%) thru 7pm then 20-40% PoPs along the immediate coast until midnight. Lows tonight in the low/mid 60s...to around 70 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over the region along with subsidence in the wake of departing Jose results in a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day Wed. Latest data suggests enough moisture for sct convection to develop over the mts after 18Z, but generally dissipating as it tries to move east. Will carry slight chc pops over the eastern Piedmont (~20%) in the afternoon as some hi-res guidance indicates potential for an isold shwr/tstm. H85 temps btwn 15-16C along with ample sunshine results in highs reaching the mid-upr 80s to around 90 west of the Bay, lwr 80s along the immediate coast. Mstly clr and warm Wed night. Lows 65-70. Mostly sunny and warm Thurs and Friday as the high dominates. Highs in the mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS from Fri night into early next week as remnant lo pres (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early next week) - esp at the coast...expecting dry /above normal conditions. Extended models have a little better at consensus wrt tropical systems into early next week. Tropical cyclone Maria expected to move to (well?) E of the SE CONUS coast by Sun-Mon. Monitor forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend. Highs Sat-Sun in the l80s at the coast...m-u80s elsewhere...then in the u70s-m80s Mon-Tue. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the u60s-around 70F at the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread -SHRA currently ongoing across far eastern VA and lower MD with MVFR CIGS of 2-3k ft. Improving conditions expected along the coast by 00z evening. Decreasing clouds west to east after 00Z as Jose slowly pulls NE and away from the area. Last region to clear will be KSBY by around 06z tonight. N-NW winds 20-25kt with gusts to 35 kt along the coast now will diminish after 00z. Outlook: Jose continues to drift NE to a position off the srn New England coast Wed and Thu. High pressure builds in behind the system for dry wx. && .MARINE... Tropical storm warnings continue into this evening for all coastal waters as winds continue at 25-35 kt sustained with gusts up to 40 kt (may drop this early over southern coastal waters w/next update). Seas currently avg to 7-10 ft nearshore and 11-14 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay avg 3-5 ft except up to 5-6 ft at the mouth of the Bay. earlier Gale Warning for the mouth of the Bay has now been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory and other SCA headlines for the rivers/Bay/sound remain as is for mainly 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 15-20 kt this evening. Marine conditions then improve later tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub- SCA conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters Wed). Seas are expected to start to once again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to affect the region so additional SCA or Small Craft advisory for hazardous seas will likely be needed for the coastal waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal departures avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower Bay, tapered to only about +0.5 to +1.0 feet in the upper Bay. Will continue coastal flood advisories for all Bay/river zones through the upcoming high tide cycle this evening/early Wed am. Have coastal flood warnings in effect for the zones adjacent to the Atlantic ocean as water has piled up into some of the inlets and additional moderate flooding is expected through this evening`s high tide, though some areas may fall a little shy of moderate criteria as the departures are starting to fall over the past 2 hrs. Also, added a coastal flood advisory for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore from midnight through 6 am with the expectation that tidal departures will slowly creep up with as the strong northerly winds subside later tonight and water remains piled up to some extent in the Bay as waves outside of the mouth of the Bay remain elevated on Wed. Additional minor flooding will be possible later wed/Wed night, but given the uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period yet. High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas into this evening due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters now extended through Wed as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075-077- 078-084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095>097- 523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LKB/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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