Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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201 FXUS61 KAKQ 290000 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 800 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will linger near the Virginia North Carolina border tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Current analysis indicating surface low pressure over the Great Lakes, extending SE into the local area with some weak surface low pressure reflection along the coast of southeast VA and northeast NC. Shortwave energy aloft has pushed well offshore over past few hrs and airmass is only marginally unstable (greater instability resides across southern NC and SC). While PoPs have been raised a little, to likely through around 02Z across the NW with another area of high chance (40-50%) into south central and southside VA, the threat for any strong tstms appears very unlikely now. May see a few isolated tstms this evening but decided to update the HWO to remove the mention of strong/severe tstms. Near term models and HRRR reflectivity suggest the showers diminish in coverage later tonight with just variable cloudiness and genly dry conditions overnight. Low levels are already rather saturated and winds will be light enough to support patchy FG and/or low stratus overnight as well. Lows ranging through the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then continue E Mon afternoon. Models continue to show drying over most of the area...w/ the instability/moisture axis shifting SE into far SE VA-NE NC...where additional SHRAS/tstms are possible in the afternoon/evening. Partly sunny on Memorial Day with highs in the l-m80s N to the m-u80s S (70s along the Atlantic beaches of the eastern shore). 12Z/28 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft...stalling immediately N of the region to perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. The chc for aftn/evening SHRAS/tstms will diminish Tue...though will continue w/ 20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC. Highs Tue from the u70s-l80s at the coast to the m80s inland...after morning lows ranging through the 60s. Little change in conditions Tue night-Wed. Upper level trough to sharpen into the ern CONUS...though a strong enough trigger for widespread convective development (esp Wed) ill-defined. Maintaining PoPs (15-25%) in far SE VA-NE NC...mainly Wed afternoon. Lows Tue night in the 60s. Highs Wed in the u70s- l80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly dry with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday. The high will merge with the Bermuda High pressure ridge. This will promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the Mid Atlantic States and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the region. High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most of the strongest showers and thunderstorms have ended across the CWA but some scattered light showers remain to the west. These showers are not expected to be significant and will likely end after midnight as the airmass continues to become more stable. A weak frontal boundary continues to lie just south of the Va/NC border and has been the focus for most of the showers/tstms that have occurred today. Some stratus and fog will occur over the region bringing MVFR/IFR conditions during the overnight. Expect SBY to have the worst of the fog/stratus conditions. RIC/PHF/ORF also expected to have some fog and visibilities issues overnight with light NE flow. Guidance seems favorable for ECG with mostly NW wind. OUTLOOK...Mostly VFR conditions expected Monday with a slight chance of some afternoon/evening showers/tstms. There will be a chance for thunderstorms southeast portions Tuesday. Otherwise mainly dry weather is forecast through Thursday with only a stray shower or thunderstorm possible. The chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms increase on Friday mainly in southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, weak low pressure was near the SE VA/NE NC border. That low will move ENE and out to sea tonight thru Mon. A weak cold front will push acrs the area during Mon, then washes out over the Carolinas during Tue. Another weak cold front slides acrs the region Tue night into Wed morning, with yet another cold front moving thru the waters Wed night. High pressure will build over the waters then out to sea Thu into Fri. Winds/waves/seas will remain below SCA criteria thru the period. Variable direction winds will be 15 kt or less, with waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...JEF/LSA MARINE...TMG

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