Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030616 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND) LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND TO L70S AT THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS. ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT U60S-M70S. BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. && .MARINE... UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~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