Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241915 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will prevail across the Mid Atlantic through Monday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria will gradually track north well off the Southeast coast. Maria is forecast to approach the Outer Banks Tuesday into Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sfc high pressure is currently centered over the eastern Great Lakes and extends east into New England south into the southern Appalachians. Hurricane Maria is gradually pushing nwd N of the Bahamas and well of the NE coast of FL. Locally, the sky remains clear this afternoon (except for some wispy high clouds) under the influence of high pressure. The high will remain nearly stationary through tonight as Maria slowly moves nwd. The srn fringe of the high will begin to break down late tonight as Maria continues to move nwd resulting in some increasing clouds across SE VA/NE NC. Elsewhere, patchy fog is possible where the sky remains mostly clear. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Maria continues to trundle nwd Monday with the deep layer high remaining anchored N of the region. Some outer bands of the tropical cyclone will result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions along the coast, with partly to mostly sunny conditions farther inland (W of I-95). Deep layer moisture remains limited with only a slight chc PoP for coastal NE NC. A modest tightening of the pressure gradient will result in a ~15 mph NE wind across coastal SE VA/NE NC with gusts to ~25 mph. High temperatures will remain above normal ranging from the upper 70s to around 80F at the coast to the mid/upper 80s farther inland. There is decent model agreement showing Maria reaching about 175-200mi SE of Cape Hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of due N as the upper low drops sewd across FL. Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result in 20-40% PoPs along and E of I-95 Tuesday, with 40-50% for coastal SE VA/NE NC. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday night, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph along the coast Tuesday, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. The latest 12z ECMWF still brings Maria about 50 miles closer to the NC Outer Banks on Wednesday compared to the 12z GFS. Will defer to NHC on the exact forecast track as of 5 pm, but indications are that a shift a bit farther to the west may be warranted. This will in turn further increase the potential for some rainfall across SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to a lesser degree), somewhat stronger wind gusts at the coast, higher seas, and at least minor to moderate coastal flooding. At this time, still don`t anticipate heavy rain along the coast, generally less than two inches, given Maria`s offshore track. Will have PoPs of 30-60% east of I-95 Wed, with slight chc PoPs into the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph from around Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC where tropical headlines may eventually be needed. The biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion along/near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the low/mid 80s inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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First part of the extended, Wednesday night through Thursday, will be predicated on future track of Hurricane Maria. Have utilized Superblend for tangible weather during this period, given potential uncertainty in the track. Again, will stress that the 12z ECMWF is ~50 miles closer to the coast than the GFS and have weighted the forecast more toward its solution for the extended. This would linger Maria closer to the NC OBX through Thursday before eventually taking Maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area on Friday in advance of an upper trof dropping southeastward from Canada. This trof and associated cold front move into the region next Saturday. Above normal temperatures continue on Thursday, with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s Friday/Saturday in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around 70F, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the 50s to low 60s Friday/Saturday nights.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Clear/mostly clear conditions expected thru this evening with a NE wind of 5-10kt. High pressure remains anchored N of the region tonight as Maria continues to track nwd. Mostly clear this evening, with increasing clouds later tonight across SE VA/NE NC with some MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible where the sky remains mostly clear overnight. Outlook: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy Monday with a 10-15kt NE wind. Increasing moisture and some distant banding from Maria will result in a 40-50% chc of showers for ORF/ECG and 20-40% for RIC/SBY/PHF. Conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday/Wednesday night will largely be dictated by how close Maria gets to the Outer Banks. A closer approach will result in breezy to windy conditions, especially at ORF/ECG along with an increased chc of rain and degraded flight conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday/Friday and pushes Maria farther offshore.
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&& .MARINE... Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 4-6 ft and the current Small Craft for Hazardous Seas will continue in effect through Mon night (after that winds will increase and the headlines will likely be converted to the more usual Small Craft Advsy). Overall, expect seas of 4-6 ft to persist today/tonight, then build more significantly Mon-Wed, as ESE swell and increasing NE winds arrive from slow moving Maria. The bulk of the forecast guidance (as well as the official NHC forecast) still keeps Maria offshore of the Carolinas Tue into Thu, before it gets kicked quickly ENE out to sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have maintained increased winds and seas fcst for Tue-Thu, with at least SCA conditions expected all areas and the potential for Gales over the lower Bay/coastal waters (or tropical headlines). Either way, seas over the coastal waters should easily reach 10 ft or greater from Tue-Thu. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures this morning avg 1.0 to 1.5 ft across the entire area. Water levels will tend to remain elevated today- Mon, but overall most places should remain below any minor flood thresholds. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week, especially by later Tue and Wed (and perhaps Thu). This will depend on the exact track of Maria, but the potential for significant tidal flooding exists (especially over locations adjacent to the lower Bay and southern VA/NE NC waters). High Surf advisories likely will be needed by Mon night or Tue as well. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues through today, as 3-5 ft nearshore waves and 13-15 second swell persists. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM AVIATION...AJZ/JDM MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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