Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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457 FXUS61 KAKQ 051204 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 704 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WINTER WX ADVSRY CONTINUES AS PLANNED OVER THE NRN NECK AND LWR MD ERN SHORE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-2 INCHES PSBL. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1010 MB LO PRES JUST OFF THE NC CST WITH 1030 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK HAVE ALLOWED FOR PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ERLY THIS MORNG...WITH IT HEAVIEST NR THE CST WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS PSBL TDA. AS FOR PTYPE...CRASHING TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED RAIN TO START MIXING WITH SNOW FOR AREAS NEAR/N OF RIC. THIS MIXING WITH SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG EWRD TOWARDS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. MAIN ISSUE IS A STILL WARM BNDRY LAYER/SFC TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 30S...WHICH WITHOUT HEAVIER PCPN MAY FAIL TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING MOST AREAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS MAINLY IN THE ADVSRY AREA REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY BE ON GRASS/NON-PAVED SFCS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HRLY TRENDS BUT AS OF 4AM THE PCPN IS ALREADY STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED FOR S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE PCPN ENDS FM W TO E THRU THIS MORNG...WITH ALL AREAS DRY BY LATE MORNG/MIDDAY. HI TEMPS ONLY REACH THE MID 40S THIS AFTN UNDER STRONG CAA AND DECREASING CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRES OVER THE TN VLLY TNGT BUILDS EAST OVR THE MID ATLNTC RGN SAT AND SAT NITE. MEANWHILE...A CSTL TROF DVLPS INVOF GULF STREAM. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS XPCTD THRU ERLY SUN. LOWS TNGT M20S-L30S. HIGHS SAT 45-50. LOWS SAT NITE U20S-M30S. S/W ENRGY WILL SPAWN YET ANTHR LOW PRS SYSTM OFF THE SERN US COAST SAT NITE WITH THIS SYSTM PROGGED TO LIFT NE WELL OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS KEEP ANY SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS SYSTM SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND WITH JUST SOME LIGHT PCPN SNEAKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST ALONG THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND SERN VA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS (RAIN) ALONG THE CNTYS THAT BORDER ALBEMARLE SND WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF SLGHT CHC POPS UP TO AND INCLUDING THE TIDEWATER AREA. OTW...PT SUNNY WEST TO MSTLY CLDY EAST. COOLER ALONG THE COAST (M-U40S)...WARMER INLAND (U40S-L50S). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH SO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION OVER SE VA/NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL END SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT THE PCPN TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS INDICATED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 30S. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS PCPN ENDS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW TOWARD THE COAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W/SW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 40S MONDAY WILL LOWER TO THE LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST FROM 30 TO 35 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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IFR (LCL MVFR) ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS FROM SW TO NE. SNOW ENDING OVER THE NEXT HR AT RIC...WITH PL/SN AT PHF/ORF...SN AT SBY (RASN AT ECG). CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 14Z ON, WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTN. NNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TODAY...IN THE 20-30KT RANGE LATE MORN/ERY AFTN BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL. MORE PCPN DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AT RIC/SBY AND MAINLY RAIN SE TERMINALS. MARGINAL MVFR AND BRIEF PDS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL.
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&& .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1008MB SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING NNE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST, WITH SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR STRONG/HIGH END SCA WINDS AT 08Z, WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL MIDDAY). THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY EJECTING NE TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA BY AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30KT (15-25KT ERN VA RIVERS) THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AOB 10KT LATE TNGT. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY SCA BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY AND SOUND BEFORE SUB- SCA CONDS RETURN THIS EVENING. SEAS AVERAGE 5-7FT NRN COASTAL WATERS AND 6-10FT SRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. EVEN AFTER GALES CAN BE LOWERED, SCA MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WL LKLY BE NEEDED AS SEAS TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO DROP BELOW 5FT, ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES, WHICH COULD REMAIN AOA 5FT UNTIL SAT MORNING. WAVES ON CHES BAY AVERAGE 4-5FT THIS MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THIS AFTN. WAVES MAY REACH UP TO 6FT IN THE LOWER CHES BAY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THRU MID MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE BY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA TO GALE FORCE IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN/SUN NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS AND LIFTS IN OUR DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-10FT SRN COASTAL WATERS AND 5-7FT NRN COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVES ON CHES BAY SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT WITH UP TO 4-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY SUN NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY...
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RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CASHIE AT WINDSOR. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR RICHMOND/WESTHAM AND THE MEHERRIN AT LAWRENCEVILLE DUE TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAM/DAP MARINE...MAM HYDROLOGY...

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