Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 270429
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1229 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017
A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic Region tonight into
Thursday and then push through the area Thursday night into
Friday morning. High pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast
the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next cold front
pushes across the region early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Lo pres (S of Long Island) continues to move NE and away from
the mid- Atlantic region this eve. Cloudiness from that system
have finally cleared most of the FA (lingering BKN-OVC ST found
invof coastal lower SE MD attm). Combination of recent rainfall
and clearing today (late near the coast) likely to lead to at
least patchy FG (esp from I 95 to the coast). Otherwise...SKC-
partly cloudy overnight. Lows from the l50s from OXB-WAL...to
u50s- around 60F elsewhere on the eastern shore...to the l60s
most other places in the FA.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The approaching cold front will be slow to advance eastward
through Thursday, therefore temperatures will warm nicely with
breezy south winds (average gusts around 25 mph) under mostly
sunny skies for the better part of the day. With the area
remaining largely downsloped as well, expect high temperatures
to reach into the mid 80s inland and anywhere from 75-84F
beaches. High cirrus and cumulus clouds are expected to develop
west of Interstate 95 as the front attempts to cross the mts.
Expect shower/thunderstorm chances to increase during the
evening (30-50% early evening west and 30-40% east after
midnight). There is enough instability/lift along the front, in
addition to favorable theta-e dynamics, to support thunder into
the overnight hours. Pwats increase to 1.50-1.75 inches, and
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Overall, precip totals should be under 0.25 inches. Warm
overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60s.
The front slowly exits the coast Friday morning with lingering
showers and thunderstorms possible into the afternoon as daytime
heating allows any waning convection/remnant moisture near the
coast to re-fire (mainly Tidewater into NE NC and adjacent
waters). Highs once again in the mid 80s inland to 75-84F
beaches. Pwats lowering so only light qpf amounts (0.05 inches
or less) anticipated. The front gets pushed NNE by Friday
evening and stacked high pressure begins to dominate off the
Southeast Coast. This will allow a warming trend to ensue. Lows
Friday night in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Breezy
southwest winds expected to develop on Saturday and promote
excellent mixing conditions under mostly sunny skies. Highs
Saturday in the upper 80s to 90F inland and in the low-mid 80s
beaches. High cirrus to spread into the area from the northwest
as a weak cold front to the north melds/merges with a warm front
extending across nrn VA from a low in the srn Plains. Best
dynamics for any shower/thunderstorm development is mainly north
of the area, however far nrn counties could see better precip
chances (up to 30% POP) Saturday aftn/evening...whereas the
remainder of inland areas could experience isolated pop-up
storms (up to 20% POP) along seabreeze boundaries. Pwats rebound
to around 1.50 inches, thus making brief moderate to heavy
rainfall possible with any convection that forms.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through Sun,
as an upper level ridge remains anchored just off the East coast.
A backdoor cold front could affect nrn portions of the area Sat
night thru Sun morning with a slgt chc of showers, then a slowly
approaching cold front fm the west could produce isolated or
widely sctd showers or tstms Sun aftn into Sun evening, esply
wrn half of the region. Lows Sat night in the mid 60s to near
70. Highs on Sun in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
That cold front will push thru the mtns by late Mon, then cross
the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have
high chc to likely Pops for showers/tstms during this period.
Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry
wx for later Tue morning thru at least most of Wed, as it slides
fm the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on Tue in
the 70s, and mainly in the mid to upper 70s on Wed.
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Coastal low continues to pull NE and away from the area this
evening. Skies have cleared except for SBY where stubborn ST
continues to hang tuff. Challenge tonight will be for fog
development with light south winds. Thinking the stratus layer
finally scatters out at SBY by late evening. With temps already
close to the dew point and wet ground, fog a decent bet once it
does clr. Guid has fog down to less than 1 nm there late tonight,
but given BUFKIT suggesting some stratus, only took vsby down
to 2SM in fog attm. Otw, some mvfr fog possible late tonight at
both RIC/SBY. Think south winds at ECG/ORF prevents much fog
Only sct cu development after 12Z thurs ahead of an aprchg cold
front. SSW wind become gusty btwn 15-20 kts.
Outlook...Next frontal boundary will provide a focus for more
shower/tstm development late Sat. Cigs/Vsbys lower in any
Dropped SCA at 7 PM across srn coastal waters as seas there have
dropped below 5 ft. SCA`s remain north with 4-6 ft seas. Added
fog to the MD coastal zones per crnt web cams/obs.
The gradient becomes a bit stronger on Thu, with S winds
increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Some residual swell around 9-10 sec
and the increasing winds look to keep seas elevated/probably
coming back up to 5 ft offshore and a SCA headline may be needed
for coastal waters by Thu evening/night. Marginal SCA conditions
possible for the Ches Bay/Rivers Thu aftn/evening, but overall
would expect this to be below criteria for headlines given a
very warm airmass (temps in 80s) over water temperatures in the
60s or cooler leading to less than optimal mixing. Waves will
build to 2 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Similar
conditions expected Fri/Sat, as the warm weather and a SSW flow
persist. Some guidance depicting a backdoor cold front could
shift winds to the NE for awhile for northern coastal waters by
Sun, but most places likely to stay south of this boundary.
During the high tide cycle early Thursday morning on the bay
side of the lower Eastern Shore...some locations may approach
minor flooding...especially in Maryland. Bishops Head may touch
minor flooding. This may be an issue once again early Friday
During the next 24 hours...water level may approach or touch minor
flooding on the Ocean side of the Virginia eastern shore as
elevated seas continue.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>025.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM EDT this
morning for ANZ650-652.