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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...