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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
938
FXUS61 KAKQ 201419
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1019 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today and tonight, then
slides off the coast Monday into Tuesday. The next cold front
will impact the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Morning fog has burned off with only sct-bkn clouds around the
fa late this morning. High pressure keeps the fa dry under
mostly sunny skies this aftrn. Highs in the mid-upper 80s at
the coast to the upper 80s/lower 90s inland. Humidity will be
moderate with aftn dew pts in the 65-70 F range most areas
(lower 70s SE coast).

PVS DSCN:
Mostly clear tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
patchy fog possible again after midnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The area of high pressure slides off the coast on Monday and
the flow turns more to the S/SE, which will allow some
additional moisture to return to the area. The orographic lift
will allow some convection to form along the Blue Ridge and
Appalachian mountains. Some of this convection could slide newd
off the higher terrain and impact portions of the Piedmont
counties and the nrn neck/ern shore later on Monday afternoon
and evening so have continued the slight chance pops. But most
areas should be dry due to a lack of lift and little mid level
moisture. Temperatures should begin to climb with most areas
getting back up into the lower 90s (85-90 F at the coast).

Monday night into Tuesday will see mainly dry weather as well,
but the humidity will increase slightly as the southerly flow
strengthens. Lows during the overnight hours should be in the
low to mid 70s and the highs on Tuesday should be a little
warmer into the low 90s. The interior southeastern portion of
the CWA would have the best chance for an isolated shower as
some Atlantic moisture lifts newd into NE NC and the VA
Tidewater, though PoPs will be 20% at most. Cold front will
move into the region from NW to SE late Tue night through Wed.
Enough lift and moisture convergence on Wed for at least high
chc PoPs all zones, and have raised them to likely (60%) Wed
aftn/evening over the south as the front looks to slow down with
a wave of low pressure then tracking along the front. Locally
heavy rainfall possible. Highs Wed mid 80s N to lower 90s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front exits the coast by Thu morning. Lingering
showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu, although they
should taper off from NW to SE as the front moves farther
southeast and away from the area. Otherwise, cool Canadian high
pressure builds across the Midwest into the ern Great Lakes Thu-
Sat with dry conditions anticipated during this timeframe.

Highs Thu-Sat mainly upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Wed night
mid- upper 60s NW to 70-74F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F
NW to around 70F SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy/shallow fog across the area early this morning, though
this expected to affect PHF/ECG only through 13Z (if that).
After that...VFR conditions today through Monday as sfc high
pres builds back into the region. There will once again be the
potential for some patchy fog early on Monday morning and have
included MVFR vsbys in all TAFS except ORF after 08Z/21. The
next cold front approaches the region late Tue and into Wed.
Sub-VFR conditions and showers/thunderstorms will be possible
Wed, and may linger across the SE terminals into Thu morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term today thru Mon night. High
pressure will build over the area today, then slides offshore
and out to sea late tonight thru Tue. W winds 5 to 10 kt early
this morning, will become NNE later this morning into this aftn,
then E by this evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft, and Seas 2 ft. E or SE
winds arnd 5 kt tonight, SE or S 5 to 10 kt Mon, then S 5 to 10
kt Mon night. Increasing S and SW winds Tue aftn into Tue night,
as a cold front approaches fm the NW. Speeds could reach 15-20
kt Bay/ocean with seas building to 3-4 ft north and 2-3 ft
south; waves building to 2-3 ft. SCA flags may be possible for
the Ches Bay Tue night. The cold front will cross the area
during Wed, and exit the coast by Thu morning. Winds N-NE aob
15 kt behind the front late Wed thru Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ESS/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG