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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
101 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRONG MARCH SUN DOING ITS THING THIS AFTRN AS TMPS ARE WARMING
MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS WRN COUNTYS...DESPITE RESIDUAL SNOWFALL
FROM YSTRDYS STORM. BUMPED UP TMPS A BIT AND WENT M SUNNY.

PVS DSCN:
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT... BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIQUID
PRECIP AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES SINCE THE BEST
DYNAMICS/PRECIP CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE FA. A DECENT CLOUD SHIELD
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO INSULATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S (MID-UPPER 30S NORTH OF METRO
RICHMOND).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S NE TO LOWER 60S SW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SW WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BRING A
DRY AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STAYING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION...MOVEMENT
AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX
WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUE...AS SW FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. LO PRES WILL THEN
RESULT IN A CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY
WX RETURNS FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S TUE MORNG...IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED MORNG...IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG...AND IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
FRI MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S
WED...AND IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER. MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z SUN. LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KSBY AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUN WITH CDFNTL PASSAGE. BIT OF A GUSTY NW WIND SUN...ESPECIALLY
KRIC/KSBY AND KORF...OTHERWISE CLEARING WITH VFR PREVAILING. VFR
CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LO PRES MOVES WELL E OF THE WTRS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS
RESULTING IN SLOLY DIMINISHING NNW WNDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS/WAVES.
SCAS RMNG UP FOR THE BAY/RIVERS UNTIL 11Z/08...THEN TO 20Z/08 FOR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY/SND AND THROUGH 00Z/09 ON THE OCN. A PD OF MDT
LO LVL CAA (AND PTNTL SHORT PD SCAS) POST CDFNT LT TNGT/SUN
MRNG...ESP NRN WATERS. A PD OF BENIGN WX AND WNDS AOB 15 KT SUN AFTN
THRU EARLY TUE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WTRS WED AFTN INTO THU MRNG.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...ALB/JAO/WRS