Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 070106 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 906 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 F. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS. PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JEF/JAO MARINE...JDM/TMG

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