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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 102104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD
COVER BREAKING UP OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND THIS TREND SHOULD QUICKLY
SPREAD TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
HIGH EVENTUALLY CENTERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND LOWS WILL DROP TO 20-25 FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE EASTERN
SHORE...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FAR SE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MIXING WILL BE
LIMITED AND HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE...TO MID/UPPER
40S SW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH USHERS IN A COLDER HIGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND -12C THURSDAY OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH AROUND -6C
OVER SW PORTIONS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 32
NE...TO THE LOW 40S S/SW. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED...WHICH WILL
HAMPER A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S NE...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SW. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL. DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE REGION FM THU NGT THRU FRI EVENG...AS HI PRES
BLDS OVR THE REGION THEN OFF THE CST. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FM THE
LWR MS VLY LATE FRI NGT...NE TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND CST BY SUN MORNG.
THIS LO AND AN ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHCS FOR RAIN SAT
INTO EARLY SUN MORNG. THE PCPN WILL END OVR SE CNTIES SUN MORNG...AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA SUN AFTN. THE PCPN COULD END AS A FEW
SNOWFLAKES ACRS THE NW CNTIES LATE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN MORNG. HI
PRES WILL RETURN FOR LATER SUN THRU MON. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
UPR TEENS TO MID 20S FRI MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S SAT
MORNG...IN THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE 20S TO LWR
30S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 40S FRI...RANGE
FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S SAT...RANGE FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S
SUN...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS A SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. AM EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KRIC BY 00Z AND TO KORF/KECG BY 02Z-03Z. VFR
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...A STRETCH OF DRY/VFR WX CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT A MARGINAL (15-20 KT) CAA
SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING TRICKY...BUT WILL HAVE
SCA HEADLINES UP AS THE EVENT IN NOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. ADDED THE
CURRITUCK SOUND TO THE MIX. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT HELD ONTO
SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS MAINLY FOR SEAS OUT NR 20 NM. WINDS
BECOME W THEN SW (BELOW SCA LEVELS) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WED NIGHT. MODELS DEPICTING ANTHR
DECENT CAA SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SCA`S
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
-- Changed Discussion --
DOX RADAR REMAINS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS PROBLEMS.
TELCO IS PRESENTLY WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ