Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272009 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the area through Thursday. This boundary will lift north to around the Mason Dixon line on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Heat Advisory continues for southern/SE portions of the area until 8 PM this evening. Current conditions show HI values AOA 105 degrees for most of this area. Also watching tstms this afternoon which have developed across the eastern Piedmont and also along the Ches Bay/Eastern shore. So far this activity has been widely scattered with partly to mostly sunny conditions for much of the area. Will hold onto chc pops (30-50%) for most locations through the evening with a weak/diffuse frontal boundary nearby and also outflow boundaries around from ongoing convection. The threat for severe wx remains low (marginal risk) given weak shear profiles. However, the strongest storms will be capable of frequent lightning and heavy rain. Tstms will tend to wane by late evening and overnight but will maintain slight chc pops with the weak frontal boundary nearby. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid/upr 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The weak frontal boundary begins to lift north of the area on Thursday and should be located across our northern counties Thursday afternoon. This feature in combination with a developing lee trough and a disturbance passing overhead late in the day will lead to the development of scattered aftn/eve thunderstorms, especially north. SPC has most of our area in a Slight Risk given the better shear (30kt) that develops and decent thermodynamics. Main concerns will be for large hail, localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. In addition...increased low level thicknesses/H85 temps across central/southern areas support a little hotter temps. This in combination with dew pts in the mid 70s will result in high heat index values again. Will have a heat advisory for most areas east/south of RIC to the Ches Bay. Highs in the low to mid 90s. By Thursday night and Friday the aforementioned weak boundary washes out near the Mason-Dixon line and we`ll wait for the next cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. A potent shortwave is also expected to cross the area late Thursday night into midday Friday and will be the focus for additional shwrs/tstms. Will have high chc to likely pops (40-60%) across northern areas through Friday afternoon with lower chances S-SE (farther removed from the best support). Cannot rule out the potential for some heavy rain given PWs in excess of 2". However, there`s too much uncertainty at this time to warrant a flash flood watch. Not as hot across the north Friday given the added cloud cover and convection. Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the mid 90s south. May need another heat advisory south. Lows Thursday night in the 70s. The next cold front washes out across the area Saturday and may touch of additional convection. Pops were placed at (30-40%) for the afternoon. Highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No major changes to the going forecast for the extended. The westerlies generally remain north of the area through early next week with the frontal boundary remaining just north of the area or even over the region through the period. This frontal boundary will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms through the entire forecast period...with slightly higher POPs Sunday into Sunday night as heights lower across the forecast area as a weak upper trough passes north of the region. Will go with a dry forecast on Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF finally suggest the surface front may pass south of the area as the upper trough deepens over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. It will continue warm and humid through the extended with highs each day in the low-mid 90s with dew points still in the low-mid 70s. Probably not quite as warm as previous days...but still uncomfortable. Perhaps a little cooler and slightly drier on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Vfr conditions across area terminals this afternoon to begin the TAF period, with the exception of some sct convection offshore to the E of KSBY. Expect some additional isolated to widely scattered T-Storm activity across terminals from 27/20z through approximately 28/04z...with brief MVFR/LCL IFR possible in stronger storms. Winds will be generally light and variable outside of TSTM activity. OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected to continue each day through the weekend, with some early morning fog also possible. Expect vast majority of time will be VFR at area terminals. && .MARINE... Benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds aob 10 kt will continue thru Thu, variable at times, with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. OUTLOOK... No headlines expected but the meandering frontal boundary will play havoc with the wind direction into the early part of the weekend. Expect a s-sw direction on the south side of the front Thurs nite and Fri then shifting to the nw-n for a while Fri nite into Sat before becoming s-sw again by late in the weekend. Winds stay below 15 kts with seas 2-3 ft through the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065-079>082- 087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ060- 065>069-079>084-087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-518-520- 523>525. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS/MAM MARINE...TMG

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