-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
257
FXUS61 KAKQ 011839
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
239 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, with mainly dry
weather through early afternoon, followed by increasing storm
chances from west to east late in the day into tonight. The
front will be very slow to cross the local area through Wednesday,
with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing. Mainly dry
conditions are expected late in the week into next weekend as
high pressure brings somewhat lower humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon become more
  widespread into this evening and tonight.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across northern
  portions of the area and a Slight Risk (level 1 out 5) is in
  place for these areas.

- Risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding increases
  late this evening into tonight.

An mid-upper trough is slowly advancing eastward through the OH
Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon, while a weak upper low is
spinning just offshore of the SE coast. At the surface, a cold front
extends from southern Quebec through the eastern Great Lakes, and
into the Deep South states. A pre-frontal lee trough has also set up
over the Piedmont region. Given an uncapped low-level atmosphere
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.8-1.9", and breezy SW
flow, a widespread cumulus field has developed over most of the area.
An area of convergence has also developed from the SW corner of our
CWA into the RIC metro and this is where the CU field is
particularly agitated. Radar has shown has sporadic showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing in this area and continued
growth/intensification is possible given the strongly unstable
environment. Otherwise, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s
to lower 90s. With dew points in the 70s, heat indices are hovering
around 100 F. Still not expecting any Heat Advisories this afternoon
given low expected coverage of heat indices ~105 F.

The cold front will slowly advance eastward later this afternoon,
evening, and into tonight. Broad height falls overspread the region
ahead of the front and upper trough, which will lead an increased
coverage of thunderstorms across the region. The highest coverage is
expected across the N and NW, with a marked decrease in
precipitation chances further SE. The greatest bulk wind shear
remains removed from the highest instability (and more behind the
area of greatest convective coverage), so there is some question
regarding the intensity and persistence of strong to severe storms.
However, given the support for ascent at the surface and aloft,
along with MLCAPE up to 3000 J/kg, a few severe storms seem like a
good bet. This is especially the case for storms that develop and
move into our area this afternoon and evening (i.e., prior to
sunset). While a few CAMs delay the arrival of convection until
quite late (after 00z/8 PM), ongoing convective trends suggest
storms are a good bet across the Piedmont and our NW counties by 19-
22z (3-6 PM). Wet microbursts and outflow-forced damaging winds
appear to be the main threat in storms, along with locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning. The (severe) hail threat is quite
low due to meager mid-level lapse rates of 5.5 C/km or less. SPC has
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for roughly the northern half of
the area through 9 PM.

The front enters the area this evening/early tonight, though it
stalls across our CWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning as
the front becomes parallel to the deep-layer flow. With PWATs
remaining near 2" and strengthening 925-850 mb winds, there will
likely be support for continued convection through the night. The
severe potential will tend to drop off with the loss of heating, but
the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding could
tick up as storm training becomes more prevalent. The latest CAMs
are in decent agreement in showing this potential from the SW
Piedmont into the RIC metro/Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.
Considered a flood watch for these areas but held off after
collaboration and the fact that the higher probs for high rain rates
drop off some. WPC has maintained a Slight ERO for roughly the NW
half of the area. PoPs also gradually ramp up across the SE, but
remain 15-20% across NE NC through early Wednesday morning.
Overnight lows tonight generally in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Slight ERO for Wed in SE zones).

01/00z guidance continues to trend slower with the front as it
pushes SE Wednesday, keeping increased rain chances area-wide,
with heavy rain threat shifting to SE VA and NE NC through Wed
evening. There appears to be ample upper level support for
heavy rain across the SE Wed as the upper trough axis crosses
the area in tandem with PW values > 2.00". Therefore, the
primary hazard Wednesday will be heavy rain and the 01/00Z HREF
3"/3hr neighborhood probs have increased to 30-50% for the VA
eastern shore and Hampton Roads. A flood Watch may need to be
considered by later shifts if this continues. In addition, some
of the guidance depicts some additional heating with lower
morning PoPs, especially for southside Hampton Roads and NE NC,
which could allow for some localized strong wind gusts given
moisture laden updrafts in a high PW airmass. High temperatures
drop into the 80s Wednesday (some areas could potentially be in
the upper 70s) with PoPs ranging from 40-60% N to 70-90% SE
with the front lingering over the local area. Overall, NW zones
will tend to see diminishing PoPs by late aftn as drier air
moves in. 01/00z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front pushing SE
of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW values
dropping to well below percent of normal Thursday. A secondary
cold front approaches from the N Thursday. However, PoPs are
generally < 15% given a drier airmass, with 15-20% near the
Albemarle Sound. High temperatures return to the lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Lows Thursday night drop into
the mid to upper 60s well inland to the low 70s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through Independence Day and the upcoming
  weekend.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

By Friday, in the wake of a secondary cold front, surface high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes and moves SE into
the local area. Dewpoints are forecast to only be in the low-mid
60s into central VA to the upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in
the mid 80s to near 90F behind the secondary front, with lows
Friday night dropping into the 60s for most of the area, so some
relative relief (at least for early July standards) is
expected. Upper ridging will start to build across the Northeast
and Mid- Atlantic by next weekend. Highs trend back toward the
90s, but dewpoints will be slower to recover and mainly dry
conditions are expected for the Independence Day holiday
weekend. More humid conditions along with low chances of diurnal
showers/tstms arrive early next week well in advance of another
cold front moving into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions at the main terminals persists through late
afternoon inland, and through much of the TAF period at ORF/ECG.
A cold front gradually approaches the area this evening, with
some prefrontal showers along the lee trough over the next few
hours. Have continued with PROB30 wording for tstms at RIC and
SBY, particularly from 20-22z through 00-02z, respectively. Not
as confident farther to the SE, have included PROB30 for TSRA at
PHF, but only a PROB30 for -SHRA at ORF/ECG later tonight.
Storms may produce strong to severe winds late this afternoon
into tonight, with the greatest chc for this again at RIC/SBY.

MVFR or IFR VSBYs develop this evening, with MVFR CIGs possible
IN convection, particularly this evening. MVFR/IFR CIGs
spreading across the area overnight RIC/SBY, eventually reaching
SE terminals late tonight or (more likely) into Wed morning. Winds
avg SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt today.

Outlook: The cold front will be slow to cross the region
Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers/storms likely.
These showers/storms will be capable of producing flight
restrictions (mainly due to VSBYs) in heavy rain along with a
chc for some localized strong winds. VFR conditions return
Thursday through Saturday as drier air builds into the region
behind the cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1025 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories into effect this morning through early
Wednesday for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through the
extended period.

SW flow continues this morning with high pressure well to the SW
offshore and a cold front approaching from the W. Winds early this
morning are generally 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt, though middle
portions of the Ches Bay are 20 to 25kt. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for coastal waters south of Parramore Island and the
Currituck Sound, The Ches. Bay and lower James river. Winds will
likely have a brief decrease in the late morning/early afternoon
today as the marine layer becomes more stable, but will increase
once again this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm associated with
the front as expected to bring heavy rain and potentially damaging
wind gusts. SCAs will be issued as need. Approx. time frame is
between late this evening through tomorrow morning. SCA for the
northern coastal waters will go into effect 11 AM this morning as
winds and seas increase late morning. Waves will peak in the bay
early morning this at 2-3 ft with an occasional 4 ft wave. Late
afternoon/evening, seas will peak at 3-5 ft. Winds and seas remain
elevated through early Wednesday morning before starting to taper
off. Looking at the extended forecast, benign marine conditions will
resume by mid-week and are expected to continue through the holiday
weekend.

The rip current risk for today is MODERATE across the northern
beaches (including Ocean City), but has been reduced to LOW
across southern beaches due to weak swell and nearshore waves
only ~1 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLIMATE...