Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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452 FXUS61 KAKQ 171903 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the remainder of the week with temperatures gradually moderating.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The current surface analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered over the low Potomac River. The sky is clear, except for a band of mid/high clouds skirting the Albemarle Sound and some stratocumulus just offshore. The high remains over the region tonight resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear, cool, and dry conditions expected. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid/upper 30s for rural inland locations, with low/mid 40s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Frost should be widespread enough early Wed morning across rural outlying locations of the Piedmont to warrant a frost advisory. Went with a frost advisory from Mecklenburg to Powhatan to Caroline County after coordination with our neighboring offices.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the region Wednesday thru Friday as the airmass gradually moderates. Sunny/clear and dry conditions will continue. Highs Wednesday range from 65-70F followed by highs Thursday of 70-75F. Highs Friday will reach the mid 70s for most places. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the 40s. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 40s inland to the low/mid 50s coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold front. ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will show chance PoPs Monday/Tuesday, then another potential cool down by the middle of next week. Highs Sat-Mon in the mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon. Outside of a band of mid/high clouds skirting the Albemarle Sound, the sky is clear. Winds remain generally light N/NE, except for some lingering gusts to 20 kt at the immediate coast. High pressure builds over the region tonight with the wind becoming calm to very light under a clear sky. High pressure remains over the region Wednesday through Saturday with the sky remaining mostly clear with a light wind.
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&& .MARINE... The latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing well offshore with broad high pressure building into the region. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through this morning due to cold air advection behind the front. Wind gusts up to 30 knots will remain possible over the bay and ocean through early this morning. Went ahead and cancelled the SCA for all of the rivers besides the lower James as wind gusts have mainly diminished below 20 knots in these locations. Seas over the ocean will be up to 6 to 8 feet with the highest seas over the southern coastal waters. Waves over the bay will be up to 3 to 5 feet. Seas and waves are expected to slowly diminish early this morning and through the day today. High pressure will allow for improving marine conditions by tonight with just some lingering 5 to 6 feet seas over the far southern coastal waters. The high will allow for an extended period of sub- SCA conditions through the end of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>634-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/JAO NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ESS EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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