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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201943
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front remains nearly stationary over Southeast Virginia
and Northeast North Carolina through Wednesday. The boundary
dissipates late in the week allowing the Bermuda high to build
back in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak/diffuse frontal boundary invof SE VA-NE NC...remains so
through tonight. Extensive corridor of significant cloudiness
covers from offshore of the MD/VA/NC coasts on SW to the central
Gulf coast. The cloudiness has nudged NNW during the
afternoon...and will remain so through the night. SHRAS-ISOLD
tstms will continue this evening...mainly ovr coastal NE NC.
Weak S/W aloft crosses the area late tonight...spreading some
lower level CIGs and possible ISOLD/SCT (manly) SHRAS N into at
least SE 1/2 of FA. Lows from the u60s-l70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Flow aloft becomes more W-NW beginning Wed afternoon/evening
and gradually shifts the moisture axis associated with the
stalled boundary SE of the local area (through Wed night). After
that...remnant boundary becomes a warm front which lifts back N
Thu night-Fri. Highs Wed in the l-m80s. Lows Wed night in the
u60s-l70s. Partly sunny Thu w/ highs in the u80s-l90s.

Moisture return and PoPs increasing by late Thu night into Fri.
Will raise PoPs to 40-60% by Fri morning along-W of a ORF-LKU
line...taping to 10% on the MD eastern shore. VRB clouds w/ SCT
SHRAS/tstms possible through Fri afternoon. Highs in the
m-u80s...except l80s at the beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lots of uncertainty in the extended range as models differ on
handling strength and timing of several frontal boundaries along
with the movement of now TS Cindy. The operational 12z GFS is
strong and faster than the previous 6z run with a cold front
that would sweep across the area on Saturday by 18z with the
remnant of Cindy pushing through quickly ahead of the front. The
6z GFS was at least 6 to 12 hours slower and was weaker with the
front. The 00z ECMWF was even slower than the GFS with the
remnants of Cindy being left behind the initial frontal
boundary, which stalls over the area on Saturday with the sfc
low associated with Cindy getting pulled over the area Saturday
night. A stronger secondary front arrives Monday and finally
pushes the humidity off the coast by Tuesday. The WPC guidance
is much closer to the ECMWF scenario and slower, which given the
time of the year makes sense as the frontal boundaries of late
have struggled to make it through the CWA. So as a result, have
held onto a mention of precipitation into the day on Monday, but
the best chances for rain should be from Friday night into the
day on Sunday as the remnants of Cindy increase the moisture
over the region. I don`t think it is wet all the time, but
expect some periods of showers with the best chance being during
the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures are a
challenge as well with cloud cover creating much of the
uncertainty. While temperatures should drop a degree or two each
day, clouds could certainly have an impact and either hold
readings down more than expected or should the clouds break more
than expected, readings could certainly jump. Right now, have
reading in the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday and gradually
reduce highs on Sunday and Monday as couple degrees with the
front in the area. By Tuesday however, expect to see a stronger
push of cooler and drier air which could get highs back down
around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extensive mainly high level cloudiness over the FA w/ VFR CIGS.
SCT SHRAs/ISOLD tstms will be lingering invof ECG into tonight
as stalled frontal boundary hangs over SE VA-NE NC. Weak system
aloft lowers CIGS late tonight/Wed morning...w/ possible
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. Drying/VFR conditions expected Wed
afternoon/night. Remnant front front transitions into a weak
warm front and is expected to lift N late Thu into Fri as gulf
moisture gets pulled into the TN Valley. VFR conditions expected
Thu...w/ a return of at least SCT SHRAS/tstms and possible
periods of MVFR conditions late Thu night into Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front is situated from central NC to off the coast
of the Currituck Outer Banks this morning. The wind is
primarily SW 10-15kt as there is not much of a wind shift
associated with the boundary. Seas remain 4-5ft N of Parramore
Island and 3-4ft S, with waves in the Bay ~2ft. The only
remaining SCAs are for the coastal Atlantic zones N of Parramore
Island. Two distinct periods continue to be observed, one
5-7sec and the other 15-16sec. Recent obs indicate that the
shorter period is prevailing. The cold front will wash-out later
today with the wind becoming SSW 10-15kt by this aftn and
tonight. Another weak boundary approaches from the NW Wednesday
and drops into the nrn coastal zones Wednesday night. This
boundary will lift back to the north Thursday as high pressure
builds off the Southeast coast through Saturday. A SW wind aob
15kt is expected to prevail with 2-4ft seas and 1-2ft waves in
the Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...ALB/BMD
MARINE...AJZ