Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221137 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 737 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east from the lower Mississippi Valley today as strong low pressure remains over New England. This pattern will bring breezy northwest winds through this afternoon. The high will become centered across the southeast states Sunday into Monday, bringing dry conditions with seasonable temperatures to the local area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current analysis indicates cold front now well off the coast, with a sfc trough crossing the local area. A few isolated showers passing through southern VA/northeast NC, and another batch persists over the eastern shore/northern Neck so will carry scattered shower wording there through 15Z. Skies are still mostly cloudy, but clearing from SW to NE will continue through the rest of the morning hrs. Temperatures will hold in the 50s most areas through noon, skies become mostly sunny except for some lingering clouds across the NE this morning. Much cooler conditions prevail under strong CAA...high temps only in the low- mid 60s. Winds will be highest along the Ne zones where sustained winds will average 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. Farther inland and across the southern coastal zones, gusts will average 25-30 mph. Winds then decrease tonight as sfc high pressure builds E from the lwr MS Valley. Quite chilly tonight, and w/ low dew pts expect a rapid fall in temperatures later this evening. Sfc high stays centered well SW of the region however, so this is not an ideal radiational cooling setup despite the dry air and clear skies. Guidances has trended a little colder and have lowered mins tonight into the upper 30s to low 40s well inland (primarily along and W of the I-95 corridor). This is where winds likely fall off/decouple after 06Z. Patchy frost possible, though dew pts may be too low for much to develop. Farther east, expect lows mainly in the mid-upper 40s as winds remain somewhat elevated even overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fairly deep upper low remains over eastern Canada Sun-Mon, with another shortwave diving ESE around the base of this upper low from the Great Lakes through NJ Mon morning. Sunny on Sunday with highs mainly 65-70 F. Not as cool Sun night due to some return SW flow ahead of a dry cold front with lows in the mid-upper 40s interior S to the upper 40s/lower 40s near the coast and across the N. The front pushes through the local area Mon shifting the winds back to the NW in the afternoon. However, downslope warming will keep the CAA to our NW through the aftn with highs into the mid 70s south and central to around 70 F across the N. Mostly sunny skies prevail (partly sunny across the NE). Cooler Mon night with lows in the upper 30s/lwr 40s W to near 50 F SE. Highs Tue in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong/1030mb Canadian high pressure builds south across the area Tues then slowly shifts east to a position off the New England coast Wed. Continued dry but cool. Lows Tue nite in the upper 30s/low 40s to upper 40s SE. Highs Wed in the low to mid 60s. Lows Wed nite in the mid 40s to lwr 50s. Low pressure tracks from the nations mid section Wed into the Gt Lakes region Thurs. An assctd warm front progged to lift NNE across the mts and into PA Thu. Best support for pcpn with this feature remains north of the fa but ECMWF does show some weak lift as far south as VA late Thurs / Thurs nite. GFS a bit slower spreading the moisture east of mts. Kept low chc pops across northern half of fa during this time frame. Highs Thurs 65-70. Lows Thurs nite in the 50s. Warm Fri with highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 12Z...the sfc cold front has shifted well offshore, but strong upper low centered over central PA/NY state continues to bring enough instability aloft across NE sections of the CWA this morning for scattered showers through 15Z that may affect KSBY, with variably cloudy skies/VFR cigs of 4-10 K ft elsewhere. Skies become mostly sunny by 14 to 15Z or so (remaining mostly cloudy through 18Z at KSBY). Gusty northwest winds can be expected through the aftn all sites as the low pressure system over the Northeast States intensifies. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots can be expected toward the coast and at RIC through about 21Z today. Diminishing winds/mainly clear skies overnight all areas (some gusts to 20 KT at KSBY still expected through midnight). OUTLOOK...High pressure builds across the Southeast Sunday. A dry cold front sweeps across the area Monday, with high pressure returning Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR conditions dominate.
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&& .MARINE... The well advertised cold front will move farther offshore this morning with high pressure returning late today into tonight. NW winds behind the front have already reached SCA levels early this morning and still expecting winds to increase to gale force thru the morning hours. Strongest gusts up to 40 kt still look to be across the northern coastal waters and middle Ches Bay with gusts to 35 kt across the south. Winds expected to drop below gale on the Ches Bay and coastal waters south of Parramore this afternoon and will be replaced by SCAs at that time. Still anticipating a secondary surge/increase in mixing this evening, so have maintained Gale/SCA headlines into tonight. The offshore NW flow will keep seas from building to much higher than 5-7 ft most areas (highest out 20 NM offshore). Bay waves build to 4-5 ft. Winds remain elevated on Sunday but should diminish to some extent and avg 15-20 KT by afternoon. The next front crosses the area Mon. Appears another surge (albeit much weaker) will likely require SCA headlines late Sunday into Monday. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Wx-Radio Transmitter at Driver/Norfolk is offline (see PNS for details). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 654-656-658. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LKB MARINE...JDM EQUIPMENT...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.