Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161937 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW. OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16: RIC...45 (1929) ORF...46 (1935) SBY...45 (1935) ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) RECORD LOWS THU 4/17: RIC...31 (1949) ORF...34 (1875) SBY...26 (2008) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049- 060>083-085-087>089-092. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD/TMG CLIMATE...

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