


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --773 FXUS61 KAKQ 100634 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 234 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through Thursday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms occuring both days. The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Numerous showers and thunderstorms will slide eastward through southeast Virginia and the lower Maryland Eastern Shore through Midnight, potentially impacting portions of northeast North Carolina. -The severe threat will continue to diminish as the storms move east late this evening. -Localized instances of flash flooding will also be possible. SVR Watches 497 and 499 will remain in effect from 10pm- Midnight, respectively, to account for the line of thunderstorms currently moving eastward through southeast VA and lower MD. Isolated instances of strong winds and also localized flash flooding will be the main threats as this activity pushes east through Midnight/early Thurs AM. After storms exit, low temperatures will fall into the lower-mid 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon through late evening on Thursday. -Scattered thunderstorms are still expected on Friday and Saturday as the unsettled pattern continues. - The flooding threat will be highest on Thursday, but could continue on Friday and Saturday. An upper trough axis crosses the area on Thursday before moving to our east on Friday. Numerous tstms are expected across much of the area on Thursday, with the highest coverage shifting a bit to the south. Temps only warm into the mid 80s-90F...which will lessen the severe threat (but SPC still has a Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts). Given that PWs will still be around 2.0" on Thursday (in addition to the rain that fell yesterday and is expected today), WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the area. We finally start to see some upper height rises on Friday and Saturday, but diurnally driven tstms will continue each day (although coverage will be less than what is expected on Thursday). Additionally, the swath of 2.0"+ PWs will be shunted to our SE by Friday/Saturday. So while there is certainly a possibility of flooding, it won`t be as high (or widespread) as what is expected today/Thu. Temperatures will be around seasonal averages on Fri/Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Staying seasonably warm and humid through early next week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting. A more seasonable (but somewhat unsettled) July weather pattern is expected late this weekend into early next week. The upper ridge will try to build back toward the area, with decently fast zonal flow aloft expected across the northern United States and southern Canada. This will result in typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day from Sun-Tue. The good news is the storm coverage will be isolated to perhaps scattered. Exact details are difficult to pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain expected from today-Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F). && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Thursday... Storms have dissipated and showers remain near the terminals early this morning. The showers will continue for the next few hours, with dry wx expected to prevail from 09-16z. The main flight concern in the near term is the potential for MVFR to IFR CIGs from now-15z (lowest at KRIC/KSBY). CIGs become BKN between 3000-5000 ft later today. Scattered tstms are possible as early as 17-19z at SBY/ORF/PHF...with storms possible later this aftn/this evening at RIC/ECG. The coverage of convection won`t be as high today as it has been the past two days, but any storm will be capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds to 25-30 kt. Storms should dissipate by 04-05z. For now, have VCSH in the TAFs and may add PROB30/TEMPO groups with the 12z TAF issuance. Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are expected from Fri through the weekend, along with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus. && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening storms. Winds across the waters are generally W or SW 10-15 kt with a few gust to 20 kt early this morning. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft (highest N). Sub advisory conditions expected today and into the weekend as the area remains between a weak surface trough over inland areas and high pressure well east into the Atlantic. Winds today will stay mostly in the 10-15 kt range, becoming more S or SE into this afternoon. Sea breeze forcing may allow areas near shore to go more easterly late this afternoon into the evening. Another round of showers and storms is expected this afternoon and evening, perhaps farther south and a bit earlier than previous days. Coverage of convection is expected to be a bit more sparse today but locally enhanced winds/waves and frequent lightning can be expected to accompany any storms that form this afternoon and evening. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with sub-SCA winds and daily shower/storm chances. Latest guidance does show the potential for a back door front to impact the waters late in the weekend with flow becoming NE or E behind the boundary before S flow resumes into early next week. Waves in the Chesapeake will average 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft into this weekend. There is a Low Rip Current risk at all area beaches today. Southeast swell energy does increase a bit on Friday, especially for the northern beaches, but will maintain a low rip risk for now. Also of note is the extended period of upwelling along the northern NC OBX that has resulted in a prolonged period of water temperatures only in the mid 60s. These conditions are likely to persist with continued SW flow over the coming days.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ021>025. NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-509>523. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM LONG TERM...ERI/JDM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...RHR