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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION PERIOD HAS BEGUN GENERALLY AS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND HRRR,
WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS, AND NAM HAS BEEN
GREAT WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, TRENDS
CONTINUE TO DICTATE A MINOR SLOWDOWN IN CHANGEOVER TIMING, WHICH
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN DIGITAL FORECAST. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E-NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN
INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR
INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS