Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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553 FXUS61 KAKQ 201811 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 111 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast through Thursday. A backdoor cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic region for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Adjusted temps a bit based on crnt readings and cloud coverage. Stubborn stratus holding on along with cooler temps across the se so lowered the mins a bit based on a logic for a slow scouring out of the clouds over the next few hrs. Bumped up temps a bit across the piedmont where the sun is out. PVS DSCN: Went ahead and cancelled the dense fog advisory over land areas per improving sfc ob vsbys. Also cancelled the marine fog advisory except across the southern Ches Bay and James River where web cams still show areas socked in with fog. Went through 4 pm but may be able to cancel early. Otw, clouds have scoured out across the Piedmont but BKN-OVC Stratus remain over the east with slow improving expected as the afternoon wears on. Spring-like with highs in the low-mid 70s except remaining in the 60s at the beaches. PVS DSCN: Stratus and patchy fog re-occurs tonight, with additional locally dense fog a possibility. Mild Tues night with lows in the 50s to around 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Warmest day of the week comes Wed, where record highs will likely fall across the region. Once again, concern for temps getting off to a slow start with Fog lingering into the mid- morning hours, but with the warm start, won`t take long to reach expected highs 75-80, except 60s at the beaches. A backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night and progged to be near the northern AKQ zones by 12Z Thu. Moisture increases along and ahead of this feature but is a bit slower than previous models had, and will continue to side toward the slower ECMWF depiction for the period. Will carry low chc pops across the nrn half of the fa late Wed night. Lows 50-55 north. 55-60 South. The front is slow to move south and is progged to only get to central Virginia by 00Z Fri. Cooler with chc to likely pops across the north, warmer with low chc pops across the south. Temps tricky and will all depend on the frontal position. Highs mid-upr 50s lwr Md eastern shore...60s over most of the area with 70s across NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect more chcs for rain showers in the extended period, Although above normal temps will prevail acrs the area. Frontal boundary just south of the area Thu night, will gradually lift back north as a warm front later Fri into Fri night, providing a 20-40% chc of showers. That boundary will be just north of the CWA during Sat, as a cold front starts to push into the OH/TN valley. Will have slgt chc to chc Pops, mainly nrn and wrn counties. Chcs for showers will then increase fm the NW Sat night into Sun, as the cold front approaches and pushes into the region. Expecting mainly dry wx Sun night and Mon, as the front pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into and over the area. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Fri, mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon. Lows will range thru the 40s to near 50 Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sun night. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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IFR/MVFR Stratus hanging tuff at ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY erly this aftrn while RIC has only sct SC. The fog has lifted. Still expect a slow scouring out process in the clouds this aftrn so kept CIGS rather low to start off the forecast period. Appears a repeat performance is likely again tonight as the models show a few hr period of MVFR/VFR conditions this evening before the stratus and fog develop again. Expect the stratus to lower bringing down the vsbys into the IFR range. Morning clouds/fog burn off Wed with VFR conditions expected by the aftrn. Outlook... A back door cold front approaches from the NW Wed night then drops south across the area on Thu. Expect a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog Thu/Fri behind this feature.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A stationary frontal bndry is located over the area this morning, allowing for light winds and marine dense fog to develop. Attm, the dense fog advsry continues over all wtrs through mid morning. The front should gradually dissipate or slide north as a warm front later today, allowing for southerly flow to increase to ~10-15 kt this evening into tonight. 1-2 ft waves over the Bay with 2-3 ft seas over coastal wtrs. Sfc high pressure will remain anchored offshore into Wed, with continued south flow over the local wtrs. With winds remaining below SCA criteria and dewpoints in the 50s, marine fog is expected at times through the period. Back door cold front then drops into the region during Thu, turning winds to the N/NE (10-15 kt most areas) into Fri. The front then lifts back north as a warm front later Fri, and will move north of the region Fri night. Waves/seas will increase Thu into Fri. && .CLIMATE... Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014) * Record high mins for 2/21. RIC: 54 (1953) ORF: 58 (1953) SBY: 51 (1953) ECG: 61 (1939) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down until further notice with an antenna pedestal issue. See FTMAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-636>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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