Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060205 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30% POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG/DAP MARINE...JDM

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