Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280139 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 939 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER SUSSEX...SOUTHAMPTON AND GREENSVILLE COUNTIES ATTM. GRADUAL DECREASE IN PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU IS EXPECTED AFTER 06-08Z...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERSISTENCE GENLY CONTG ON THU...THOUGH MDL SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A BIT HIGHER SBCAPE/MLCAPE (AGN AWAY FM THE CST) BY AFTN. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/MCLDY TO START THE DAY...THEN AVGG OUT PSNY...WARM AGAIN W/ 30-40% POPS INLAND...20% AT THE SHORE. LCLLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE PSBL ALG W/ BRIEF GUSTY WNDS FM ANY STMS. HI TEMPS THU IN THE M/80S...W/ EXCEPTION TO 70S AT THE SHORE. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS FAR NNE COUNTIES FOR THE DAY...WHILE RMNG UP ELSW. HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY...SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA (10-20% POPS ELSW). BY SAT...CDFNT FM THE NW APPROACHES...THOUGH RMNS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY EFFECT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY AND 15-25% POPS INLAND...10% AT THE CST. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS M60S- ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE INTERMOUTAIN WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF WAITING UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 40-50% POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN WEAKLY SHEARED SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER UNORGANIZED. POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE 30-40% MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO 20-30% BY TUESDAY AND SUB-15% THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HI PRES HAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE NRN MID-ATLC CST THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CONTINUED S-SW WINDS. WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THU MORNING DUE TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW/NRN COUNTIES ON THU...BEFORE WASHING OUT. HI PRES SETS UP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST FRI THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW/N LATE SAT/SAT NGT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH TRACKS WELL N OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. A SSW WIND COULD BRIEFLY REACH 15-20KT ACROSS THE BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A SSW WIND SHOULD AVERAGE AOB 15KT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSE AOB 10KT...ALTHOUGH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT (15-20KT OCEAN). THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG/DAP MARINE...AJZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.