Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 022021 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 321 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slowly builds into the Mid Atlantic through Sunday. Low pressure passes south of the region Sunday night into Monday. Another low pressure system crosses the region Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest sfc analysis shows ~1025 mb hi pressure over the Midwest/Mid-MS Valley with a weak trough of low pressure over the Mid Atlantic. The trough weakens into tonight as high pressure slowly builds in from the west. Expect light W/NW winds tonight with mainly clear skies. Temps will be near to slightly below normal, with lows in the low/mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Dry weather expected for the short term period with sfc high pressure in the vicinity and fairly zonal flow aloft. Expect NW flow Sat under a mostly sunny sky and high temps mainly in the low/mid 50s. Increasing clouds then for Sat night/Sun ahead of the next low pressure system to affect the area Sun night/Mon. Low temps Sat night in the low/mid 30s and high temps Sun in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Stage is setting up for an unsettled beginning week ahead. Low pressure develops over the GOM Sunday with a warm front extending east to the Carolina coast. At the same time, upper level energy is progged to lift NE along this boundary but encounter somewhat drier air over the region from high pressure over Ohio. Mid level moisture increases Sunday night over the area. Support for pcpn remains disorganized with the best chc for pcpn coming after midnight. Will keep low chc pops across the west during the evening with chc pops fa wide after midnight. In-situ wedge scenario will make for a chilly rain with lows ranging from the mid to upr 30s except near 40 along the coast. Support for pcpn pushes east of the area Monday morning with weak ridging seen during the afternoon. Thus, lingering morning rain should give way to pt to mstly cloudy skies during the aftrn. Highs in the low-mid 50s. QPF from this first wave will be rather light, ranging from a few hundredths across the north to less than one quarter inch across the southeast. Tricky forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as a complex system effects the region. Low pressure tracks form near the GOM NE into the KY/TN border Monday night into Tuesday with the warm front extending east to the Carolina coast. What makes this forecast problematic is whether the warm front can lift north into SERN VA/NERN NC Tuesday afternoon as low pressure tracks NE along the boundary. Upshot here is that copious amounts of moisture will override the cooler air at the surface to allow a cool but mainly stratiform rainfall across the area from about 06Z Tues to 00Z Wed. Pcpn may become more convective across the SE but will all depend on the location of the front. Enough model consistency to increase pops to categorical Tuesday. Even enough support for a period of mdt rainfall Tuesday. Lows Monday night in the mid 30s NW to mid to upr 40s SE. Best shot at temps Tuesday attm will range from a wedged mid 40s across the NW to near 60 across the SE. Pcpn shifts towards the coast Tuesday night with lows from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE. Lingering trofiness keeps residual moisture across the area Wed with low chc pops east of I95 Wed. Seasonable with highs 55-60. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s. Cold front crosses the area Thursday with chc shwrs into the evening hrs. Seasonable as the CAA lags. Highs in the mid-upr 50s. Pcpn ends before temps drop Thus evening. Lows by 12Z Friday from the mid 20s to lwr 30s. Cold high pressure builds into the area Friday with below normal temps. Highs Friday 40-45. Lows Fri night upr teens to mid 20s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR thru the 18Z TAF period. High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Sunday leading to dry weather. West winds may occasionally gust to 15-20 kt until sunset, decrease to 5-8 kt tonight, then gust again at times Sat out of the NW. SKC through the TAF period with increasing clouds Sat night/Sun. Next chance of showers arrives Sun night, with the rain likely into Tue with MVFR conditions at times. && .MARINE...
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Secondary CAA surge will quickly increase winds into SCA levels this evening. BUFKIT suggests a several period of minimal gale force gusts across the MD coastal waters near buoy 44009 late tonight and Sat morning. Thus, went ahead and issued a gale warning for this time frame. Also, given a NW wind, went ahead and added the eastern VA rivers to the SCA given the progged trajectory/fetch tonight. Headlines continue Saturday but expect improving conditions during the afternoon and evening as high pressure settles over the area. Waves build to 3-4 ft with 4-6 ft seas. Winds diminish later Sunday and Monday, before a turn to an easterly component Tuesday ahead of a complex low pressure system that will lift northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley. SCA`s are a possibility but will all depend on the location of a coastal boundary. Seas may build to around 5 feet once again in the outer portion of the coastal waters around as early as Tuesday, potentially lasting through mid week. A stronger cold front arrives by late in the week with another chc for headlines.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday for ANZ632-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MPR

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