Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020547 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 147 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY... THEN STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DIFFUSE FRNTL BNDRY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS NEAR A MVF-TAP-EZF LINE. REST OF FA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WHILE THE CONVECTION TO THE N AND W IS EXPANDING S AND E A BIT...THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DYTME HEATING...EVEN THE LINE DROPPING SE OUT OF W VA. FCST CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT WILL BE TO DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR S AND E ANY CONVECTION CAN GET. LATEST HIGH RES DATA HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH MOST IF NOT ALL TSTM ACTIVITY PROGGED TO REMAIN N OF I64 THRU 10Z. SPC NOW HAS WRN MOST AKQ CNTYS IN A MRGNL RISK THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS WITH THE NEWEST INFO IN MIND...ALTHOUGH NOT SOLD ON ANY SVR THREAT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WNDS/HVY DOWNPOURS AND FQT LIGHTNING. TUFF CALL ON WHETHER ENUF FOG DEVELOPS TO BECOME AN ISSUE. MAYBE ACROSS THE ERN SHORE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE BNDRY MAY SEE SOME 2-4SM VSBYS BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO WIN OUT OVER FOG ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS XPCTD FROM CRNT READINGS. LOWS 60-65 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U50S ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AND SOME SUNSHINE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN...AS SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON MON. THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER...AND WILL GENLY HAVE A DRY FCST UNTIL LATE AFTN AS FORCING WILL BE WEAK DESPITE WARMING TEMPS AND DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 60S. BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...AND THEN RAMP POPS UP TO CHC FROM 19-22Z...AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. HIGHS GENLY 80-85 F...THOUGH 70S NR THE CST AND ERN SHORE. UPR LVL LO PRES EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC STATES BEGINNING MON EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE XPCD TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS IT`S PROGRESSION MON NGT/TUE. THIS DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE EVENING. WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NGT INTO TUE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN WIND/HAIL THOUGH THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WILL INCLUDE AT CHC TSTM MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE ARND 60F NW TO THE M60S SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE LWR-MID 70S N/CENTRAL TO UPPER 70S S. COOLER WITH DIMINISHING CHC FOR PRECIP WED...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ALONG WITH PTLY-MCDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS NEAR THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PERIODS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT RANGING INTO THE UPR 70S ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPR 40S INLAND RURAL AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THRU KRIC UNTIL 07Z...AND KSBY THRU 09Z. A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF KRIC/KSBY WILL KEEP IFR/LIFR CONDS IN PLACES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS EXIST AT KPHF/KORF/KECG AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z AND LAST THRU 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST (21Z) AT KSBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT BUT SPECIFICS ARE TO ILL-DEFINED ATTM TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. CHC OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH VARIOUS DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. THE WINDS WERE TRENDING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME S/SW ON MONDAY. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS BUILDING IN THIS AREA BASED ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES INTACT. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC PROJECTIONS FOR HEADLINES BEYOND MONDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LSA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.