Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181805 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATE THIS MORNG...STRONG LO PRES WAS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE BROAD HI PRES EXTENDED FM THE NRN PLAINS SE TWD THE MID ATLC STATES. THE HI WILL SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HI TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THRU THE 40S DUE TO WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA. DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT...WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. THE MID ATLC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR 30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS FROM 10-15 K FT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRI MORNING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WINDS GENLY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SOME 10-15 KT NW WINDS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTN AT KSBY. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS AND CLEARING SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
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&& .MARINE...
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HAVE ALLOWED REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAY AS WINDS HAVE NOW DROPPED OFF TO 10-15 KT. IN COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE HIGHEST IN NC WATERS DUE TO WINDS FROM A DIRECTION MORE DUE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO NW. SEAS BRIEFLY TOUCHED 5 FT AT BUOY 44100 ALTHOUGH HAVE DROPPED OFF OVER THE PAST HR SO WILL NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES AND JUST GO WITH "4 FT SEAS" THROUGH THE AFTN. ANOTHER WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB/MPR

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