Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191941 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 341 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic region tonight...then stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina through mid week. The boundary dissipates late in the week allowing the Bermuda high to build back in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Severe tstm watch in effect until 00Z/20 for portions of central/south central VA. Corridor of SHRAs/tstms continuing to spread E from the VA highlands as cold front presse over the mountains. Axis of SFC CAPE 2500-3500 J/KG over the FA as that front approaches. So...plenty of available energy. However...a few limiting factors...mid level lapse marginal at best...modest/deep layered SW flow (200-230 kt) aiding downsloping/some drying (at least aloft) and core of best UVM/forcing pushing by N of the FA (from nrn VA/MD through ern PA-NY. Expecting an increase in coverage of convection this evening. Initially...strong/severe tstms possible...esp along-W of I 95 (will be monitoring the stms and will extend watch E if necessary). After early this evening...heavy rain potential (and possible localized flooding) likely to increase (mainly along-E of I 95) w/ slowing cold front entering the region and aided convergence aloft due to trough aloft encounter resistance of the strong area of high pres in wrn Atlantic. Otherwise...partly- mostly cloudy and humid w/ lows around 70F NW to the m70s SE. Will continue w/ trend of lowering PoPs from NW-SE after midnight-by late tonight. Mention of possible severe stms and heavy rain continues in the HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak/residual frontal boundary lingers invof SE VA-NE NC Tue into Wed as trough aloft is slow to track through New England and strong high pres remains in the WSW Atlantic. By Wed night into Thu...flow aloft become a bit more NW and gradually shifts the moisture axis SE of the local area. Another surge of moisture is possible by Thu afternoon as high pres off the SE CONUS begins to reassert itself (into the mid Atlantic region). The upcoming conditions for Tue-Wed invof SE VA-NE NC potentially leads to extensive coverage of SHRAS/tstms and a heightened heavy rain threat. QPF amounts expected to avg 1-2 inches with 3+ inches psbl in areas that do get training storms. Low confidence in any 2nd-3rd period flood watch (at this time of year esp)...but something to keep in mind going forward. Elsewhere...VRB clouds-partly cloudy w/ decreasing PoPs SE- NW. There will be a slight change in airmass over much of the area into mid week (and some dropped in dewpoints/humidity). Highs both days in the l-m80s...75-80F at the beaches. Lows Tue night in the l-m60s NW to l70s SE. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy Thu w/ a lo prob for SHRAs/tstms (by afternoon)...esp SW portions of FA. Highs ranging through the 80s...75-80F along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Anomalously moist air mass remains over the region through the upcoming weekend as a series of weakening cold fronts approach from the west. The fronts are expected to stall along the western slopes of the mountains, but pressure falls on the lee side of the Appalachians will induce lee/thermal troughing over central Virginia. Several disturbances progged to track across the region, resulting in scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Have retained above-climo POPs. Near seasonable normal temperatures forecast Friday through Sunday with highs generally in the upper 80`s to low 90`s (cooler along the coast) and lows in the upper 60`s to low 70`s. Medium range guidance digs an upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday/Sunday night and into the eastern US Monday/Monday night. While there are still spatial and timing differences in the guidance, an associated (stronger) cold front progged to impact the region Sunday night or Monday. Given the strength of the upper trough, expect the front to clear the local area Monday night as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front making slow progress over the mountains this afternoon...and will continue E into Tue...stalling invof SE VA-NE NC. SHRAS/tstms will continue to develop this afternoon...w/ highest coverage after 20-23Z/19. SHRAS/tstms will result in periods of VRB CIGS/VSBYs...otherwise mainly high end MVFR-VFR conditions. SHRAs/tstms shifts to ern/SE VA and NE NC overnight. Additional SCT-likely SHRAS/tstms Tue and Wed...highest prob invof ORF/ECG. Unsettled WX potentially lingers THU-SAT. && .MARINE... No changes to the headlines this afternoon. A cold front approaches the region from the NW this evening and pushes into the area late tonight. S-SW winds 15-25 kt will continue into the evening before gradually diminishing toward daybreak Tuesday. The cold front is expected to move over the waters Tuesday morning around daybreak then stall along the Carolina into Wednesday. SW winds diminish below 15kt all waters around daybreak, however SCA flags for coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light will continue through the morning due to seas being slower to subside below 5ft. For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week, sub-SCA SW winds will prevail. Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.