Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171513 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1113 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50. FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WITH THE AFTN FORCAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG. OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT. && .MARINE...
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SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG/JAB

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