Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270624 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 224 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA. PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED. EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN. MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S. MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND. TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO WED. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...TMG

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