Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230201 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO 20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH (INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.