Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181506 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1006 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves off the southeast coast today. A weak area of low pressure moves across the Carolinas tonight with high pressure returning Sunday. A weak backdoor front pushes across the Eastern Shore Sunday night. High pressure builds well north of the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The latest analysis depicts a split flow pattern across the Central and Ern Conus, with a srn stream trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley upstream of a ridge over the Mid-Atlantic. The nrn stream has shifted well to the N with a trough near James Bay. Upper level moisture increases across the region today ahead of the trough to the WSW. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny this morning and then become partly to mostly cloudy (mainly W) during the afternoon due to a thickening cloud deck aoa 15K ft. Despite the increasing cloudiness, highs will reach spring like levels with 70-73 west of the Ches Bay, mid to upr 60s eastern shore, near 60 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper system dampens as it lifts into the central Appalachians tonight with the energy shifting to a low off the Carolina coast. Little if any moisture noted in the latest guidance but can`t rule out some light rain across the piedmont after 03Z due to the weakening trof and along the NC zones that border the Albemarle sound after 06Z closer to the actual track of the low. Otw, mostly cloudy and mild. Lows 45-50. The low pushes farther offshore Sunday morning with high pressure establishing itself across the region Sunday afternoon. WNW winds behind the low will be light. H85 temps drop a bit, but the combination of increasing amounts of sunshine along with a light downsloping wind results in another day with well above normal temps. Highs upr 60s-lwr 70s west of the Ches Bay, except mid 60s eastern shore and beach areas. 1030 mb high builds into the Ern Great Lakes Sunday night and pushes a weak backdoor boundary through the Ern Shore. This high produces an onshore flow along the coast, resulting in cooler (but still above normal) temperatures along the coast, while the Piedmont remains mild. Lows Sunday night in the 40s. Highs Monday range from low-mid 50s near the water to between 65-70 across the piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will settle over the region Mon night through Tue and then slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night into Wed. After that, the area sits right smack in the middle of split flow with active systems passing well north and well south...and primarily westerly flow aloft. This is not a good set-up for active weather within the long term forecast periods. 12Z GFS now trying to depict one long, elongated trough passing through the region on Wed and bringing precip to the area. This is a new solution and does not seem to hold much merit to what should happen in reality. The 12Z ECMWF is also trying to bring weakening shortwave energy and light precip across the area as well. Leaned more towards a WPC solution regarding POPs and then dropped everything by 5 percent. This ends up keeping a slight chance for rain showers late Tue night into Wed. Will see how this pans out against new 18/1200Z data. Otherwise, expect a generally dry forecast with temperatures running anywhere from 10-20 degrees above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves off the coast. CI overspreads the region today with BKN-OVC cigs aoa 12K FT expected after 00Z as low pressure tracks south of the region. Although some spotty light rain is possible across the Piedmont and near the Albemarle sound tonight, the chance is to low to put into the forecast attm. Outlook: High pressure returns later Sunday which will allow for dry and VFR conditions to continue into early next week. A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday with only a minimal chance of light rain. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions this weekend into next week. Weak high pres prevails over the wtrs today with S/SW winds up to ~10 kt over the Bay/rivers/Sound and 10-15 kt over cstl wtrs with 2-3 ft seas. Similar conditions tngt as a weak wave of low pres develops off the Carolina and SE coasts. Winds then shift to NWly Sun mainly aob 10 kt with seas still 2-3 ft, and 1-2 ft waves over the Bay. High pres builds in from the west Sun night, settling over the wtrs Mon and Tue allowing for benign marine conditions to continue. && .CLIMATE... Very warm this weekend, currently not expecting to set record highs but it may be close so for reference the record highs are listed below: * Site Sat 2/18 Sun 2/19 * RIC: 77 (2011) 78 (1961) * ORF: 77 (1937) 73 (1907) * SBY: 75 (1976) 72 (1961) * ECG: 80 (1976) 77 (1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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