Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261939 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FEATURES BROAD AREA OF ~1016MB HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, RIDGING BACK INLAND ACROSS SE VA AND EASTERN NC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLC. EARLY AFTN VIS/WV SAT SHOWING UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VLY. PW VALUES STILL A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE TO WARRANT ANY SUBSTANTIVE POP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MHX SOUNDING STILL INDICATING PW AOB 1.25". BETTER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH RES MODELS STILL DEPICTING SOME SHRAS DEVELOPING TO THE NNW THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE, IN TANDEM WITH MODEST LIFT JUST TO THE NORTH OFF THE SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST, COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING (IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES) AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VA INTO LWR EASTERN SHORE AFTER SUNSET INTO EARLY MON MORNING. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW...NO HIGHER THAN 40%...AS MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MEANWHILE, NUDGED MINS UPWARD SLIGHTLY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS, EXPECT A MILD, COMFORTABLE EVENING FOR LATE JULY WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS UPR 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY... COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST TO BEGIN THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO BEGIN THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLOWLY PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MODEL THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS BUMPED UP TO 40-50% RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS MONDAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND UPTICK IN LLVL MOISTURE, BUT STILL NEAR CLIMO NORMS; GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT, AND HAVE THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF US-58). WEDNESDAY... WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UPWARD AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BUILDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW, COURTESY OF SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL RAMP UP A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY ON SSW FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST, WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BLOWING UP A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME, AND HAVE CAPPED POPS IN SILENT RANGE AOB 14%. OTHERWISE, HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM CHANCES TO THE FA THU AFTN...THEN A CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS THU EVE/NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. HOT AND HUMID THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NOT AS WARM FRI- SUN WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS MAINLY 85- 90...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE VA/WV MTNS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NAM APPEARS TOO BULLISH ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN AND FOR NOW INCLUDED LGT SHOWERS AT SBY AFT 06Z. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER OTHER TAF SITES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY RIC...TO LATER ISSUANCES. CONDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT FORECAST TO COMPLETELY MOISTEN. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (AOB 10 KNOTS) SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCT TSTMS ARE PSBL LATE MONDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE PCPN. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH MON. S-SE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THU-FRI. WAVES 1-2 FT; SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB/JDM

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