Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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975 FXUS61 KAKQ 241928 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses the local area through this evening...becoming stalled over the Carolinas for Sunday into Monday. High pressure builds into the local area behind the front tonight through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Latest weather analysis features surface cold front from Eastern New England down along the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, then snaking back into the TN River Valley. Regional radar mosaic showing two distinct areas of convection attm. First, a line of showers and thunderstorms over the western Carolinas into western VA along the cold front. The second along a pre- frontal trough over E NC, in the presence of an incoming shortwave pushing from the GA toward coastal NC/SC. A moderately humid afternoon across the eastern portion of the area, even as modestly drier air begins to filter in NW of Richmond metro area behind the cold front. Latest mesoanalysis showing 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across North Central into Northeastern NC, with some lingering CIN on the order of 50-100 J/kg that still needs to be overcome to realize convective potential. HRRR/SPC-WRF both show 2 areas of convection merging and becoming a single, narrow line of storms moving SW to NE across NC from late aftn through this evening. Thanks to drier air filtering in to the NW and warm/capped airmass over northern/central coastal zones, expect that much of our area will escape these showers and storms. However, have bumped to high end chance to likely range over the far southeastern tier of our area from 22z/6pm through mid-evening, with lower POPs up toward the I-58 corridor and over toward Tidewater/Hampton Roads (Dry for metro RIC and points north). Rain chances for far SW zones now through early evening. Convection tapers off across SE sections early in the overnight. Thereafter, clearing as cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front for tonight. Early morning lows in the l60 NW...m-u60s inland...l70s SE. Dewpoints will lower into the l60s NW to l70s far SE. Any convection SE wanes late tonight...w/ any lingering spotty rain along the Albemarle Sound coming to an end early Sun morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Front will become stalled along the NC coast on Sunday. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough aloft will build across the eastern CONUS for much of the first half of next week. This will bring a dry and markedly more comfortable stretch of days for Sunday through Tuesday, with cooler and drier days and cool, comfortable nights. Highs Sunday in the the m-u80s (l80s beaches) Clear to mostly clear sky and comfortable Sun night with lows in the u50s NW to m-u60s SE. Upper Trough will drop across the Great Lakes on Monday, with the lead shortwave dropping across the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. This feature will push the secondary cold front toward the local area from early Monday...dropping across the area Monday afternoon and night. Will result in conditions becoming partly cloudy. An isolated shower or two is possible with the frontal passage along the coast. However, given dry antecedent airmass, expecting little more than some increasing clouds and will keep pops in silent range for now. Highs in the low to mid 80s (u70s at the beaches). Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool, pleasant night Monday night with lows in the 50s to mid 60s, look for highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. A second, stronger vort lobe will drop across the area in NW flow aloft on Tuesday. Despite dry airmass, this feature could prove strong enough to squeeze out a shower or thunderstorm. Kept pop in slight chance range for now.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated SHRAs possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture. Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Periods of MVFR cigs through mid morning...except at RIC w/ gusty SW winds to 30-35 kt...becoming less gusty by late morning into the afternoon. The remnant circulation of Cindy exiting the NJ coast this morning...its associated/trailing cold front crosses the local area today/this evening. Narrow bands of SHRAs w/ brief downpours to E of SBY by 13Z. The cold front to settle across SE VA-NE NC this evening...w/ possible ISOLD-SCT SHRAs or tstms after 21-23Z/24 invof ORF/ECG. With such lo prob attm...will only carry VCSH and BKN CIGS aoa 5kft for now. VFR conditions Sun-early next week as high pressure builds back into the region. && .MARINE... No changes to SCA headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt w/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds become N/NW around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning, then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/AJB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM

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