Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150556 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 156 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POP FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING. LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING 1024+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN GRT LAKES THIS EVENING. WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLIER THIS AFTN, BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN HAS HELPED LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHRAS. THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH A WEAK S/W PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE MON LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 INLAND. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND QPF. WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY TUE AFTN WITH NW FLOW AT 850 MB BY 18Z. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE (45%-55%) AND SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC (40%-50%). LOWERS POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST (25% TO 35%). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO MID 60S AT THE COAST. POPS DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGH WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL LEAN TWD THE 12Z GFS MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM SCNTRL CANADA ESE ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN OFF THE CST FOR WED NGT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPS...AS A PERSISTENT NE FLO DOMINATES. THAT NE FLO WILL BE STRONGER...ESPLY OVR THE WTRS...THU AFTN INTO SAT AFTN. THE HI WILL WEAKEN OVR THE AREA OR MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING SUN. LGT SE OR S FLO WILL DEVELOP OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TDA. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3-4K FT AT KECG/KORF/KPHF...MAY PERIODICALLY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL ZNS FM CHINCOTEAGUE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LGT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR SEAS. HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CST TNGT THRU MON. NNE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON AFTN...THEN BECOMES ESE LESS THAN 10 KT BY MON EVENG. TROF OF LO PRES THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW OR N. NNE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED FOR TUE AFTN/TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE OH VLY INTO PA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FM WED THRU AT LEAST FRI. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT...ESPLY WED NGT THRU FRI. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...MAM/JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS/DAP MARINE...TMG

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