Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161058 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 658 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push out to sea this morning. Weak high pressure builds over the area then slides off the coast for later this morning into tonight. A secondary cold front will drop through the region Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. A stronger cold front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Early this morning, a cold front was pushing SE of the CWA and just offshore. Isolated showers behind the front were dropping through extrm SE VA and into NE NC. Temps were ranging through the 50s into the lower 60s. The front will push out to sea this morning. Weak sfc high pressure will move over the area before quickly shifting offshore this evening (allowing winds to turn back to the SW/SE/S). The sky will become sunny or mostly sunny by late this morning. Still pleasant today with highs in the upper 60s/near 70s inland/Piedmont, and in the lower to mid 60s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks E from Ontario to the Canadian Maritimes Sun through Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night into early Mon morning. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a few light showers along or just off the SE coast Sun evening into early Mon morning, as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Highs on Sun in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cooler air will begin to filter in behind the boundary, so low temps Sun night will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s N and W, to the mid to upper 40s SE VA and NE NC. Partly sunny, breezy/cooler on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph wind gusts. Highs will range through the 50s to near 60. There could be isolated showers along the extrm SE VA/NE NC coast Mon night, as shortwave energy moves across ern NC and offshore. Otherwise, mostly clear to mostly cloudy with lows mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Saturday... Tue looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued breezy WNW winds and highs in the 50-55F range. Temps moderate into the mid 50s to mid 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed/Thu, as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Still breezy out of the WNW on Wed. Then, rain chances increase as we head into Fri/ Fri night, as a deepening low pressure system lifts toward the area from the south. While things can change (and likely will as it is near a week away), this looks like more of a stratiform rain event, as opposed to showers/tstms. Ensemble (GEFS/EPS) mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.00" across the FA at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 655 AM EDT Saturday... Isolated MVFR CIG possible at ECG until 13Z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions expected for the remainder of today into this evening. N winds behind the cold front could still gust up to 20 kt until about 14Z. Winds then become highly variable (SW/SE/S) during this aftn into tonight at 5-10 kt, as weak high pressure will slide to the coast then offshore. Mainly VFR conditions expected into Sun morning, but may have to watch for MVFR CIGs (isolated shower) at ORF/ECG twd Sun morning with a weak trough. Outlook: Isolated to sctd showers will be possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the region Sun night.
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&& .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Weakening sfc cold front slowly dropping across the region as expected this morning. Winds have veered around to the NNE and have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25-30 kt in the lower bay. Winds become NE . As weak CAA wanes and pressure gradient slackens, expect winds quickly diminish in the next 2-3 hours. SCA headlines run through 7AM, and we are still on track for them to be lowered at this time. No headlines for the coastal waters, with seas mainly 2-3 ft. Sfc high pressure settles across the region quickly this afternoon and tonight, with winds diminishing to less than 10kt by late morning, and 2-3 ft waves in the bay diminishing to 1-2 ft (or less). With the weak pressure gradient, a light seabreeze develops aob 10kt from mid to late afternoon, before veering to the SSW at 10- 15kt this evening into Sunday as the next low pressure system moves from Ontario towards northern New England. CAMs and in-house wind probs still indicating that a few gusts to ~20kt are expected in the bay late tonight, but this looks brief enough and small enough in scale that SCA flags still don`t appear necessary at this time. Thereafter, expect Sub-SCA conditions persist through Sunday. W-SW winds turn N-NW, increasing late Sunday night/Monday morning in tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next frontal passage. Once again, this surge is forecast to brief enough to hold off with any headlines despite a few gusts to ~20kt (reasonable to think a brief Marine Statement may be needed during this period). However, SCA headlines are likely to be needed as early as Monday afternoon, but especially Monday evening and late Monday night/ early Tuesday. A strong cold front crosses the region during this period, with strong cold air advection expected. EPS/GEFS both show 850mb temperatures dropping to as low as -8C to -10C by 12Z Tuesday. Wind probs are low for prolonged gale force gusts, but solid SCAs appear likely during this timeframe. Winds slowly diminish Tuesday with SCA potentially coming down Tuesday afternoon. Winds back to to W-SW winds late Tue into Wed, with potential for a brief period of SCA conditions Tue night in the lower bay and lower James River. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG LONG TERM...ERI/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM/RMM

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