Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281515 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1115 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT (WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE DELMARVA THROUGH NORTHERN VA INTO SOUTHERN WV)...WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ONCE IT REACHES THE NC BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THE FROPA...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED TODAY AND THIS COUPLED WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD AFTN/EVE SHWR OR TSTM. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT (PER THE NAM/GFS)...AND THEREFORE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR WDLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE AND THEREFORE WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64. SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN (STILL IN THE 20% RANGE) WILL BE ALONG AND N-NE OF I-64. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE...WITH MID/UPR 80S INLAND (NOT AS WARM AS TODAY THANKS TO ONSHORE WINDS). LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGH SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AS WE BREAK INTO THE WARM-SECTOR ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND NE STATES. VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON/LABOR DAY...WITH GENLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUN...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ON MON (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S) AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS INTO A SFC TROUGH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND WILL CARRY 40% POPS ALL ZONES (MAINLY JUST 20% SUN AFTN/EVENING). WILL FAVOR THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TUE/WED...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT...MAKING MUCH OF TUE MAINLY DRY AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS BY LATE AFTN AND THEN HAVE 30% CHC POPS ALL AREAS TUE EVENING INTO EARLY WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE N WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR CONDS DUE TO HAZE AT ECG SHOULD END SHORTLY. MVFR FOG PSBL AT SBY THROUGH 13Z AS VSBYS DROPPED TO 7 MILES. A COLD FRONT IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OVER SE PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR AFTN TSTMS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SLGT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS DURING THE WEEKEND BECOME 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE...
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UPDATED TO DISCONTINUE SMALL CRAFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING, SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF, SUB-SCA SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE BAY AND RIVERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH DID ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS ~15-18KT IN CWF/DIGITAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED GUST ~20 KNOTS IN THE BAY CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH 2PM, BUT PREDOMINATE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA. RECENT OBS SHOWING DOMINANT PERIOD AT BUOY 09 HAS INCRIMENTALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT E-SE SWELL WILL BRIEFLY BUMP SEAS INTO 5-6 FT RANGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS (HIGHEST OFFSHORE OUT TOWARDS 20NM), WITH CENTRAL ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES EXPECTED TO REACH ~5 FT. SCHS EXPIRATION TIME REMAINS AT 22Z. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON, DROPPING BELOW 5 FT (SCA CRITERIA) TOWARD EVENING AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF 20NM LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE BY AFTN DUE TO SUBSIDING SEAS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAM/LSA

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