Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 152234 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 634 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVING ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC ERLY THIS EVE WITH A NRLY SOLID BAND OF MDT-HVY SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG IT. HAVING TO HAND EDIT THE TEMP/DP TEMP GRID AS MODELS NOT HANDLING THE 20+ DEGREE TMP DROP IN 1 HOUR BEHIND THE FROPA THAT WELL. ADJUSTED GRIDS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS NEXT 1-3 HRS AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THIS SYSTM EVEN BEHIND THE FRNT. STILL EXPECT THIS SYSTM TO SWEEP OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FAIRLY RAPID CLRG. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS AND CURRITUCK COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO INDICATED IN THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN AREAS OF HAMPTON ROADS DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY AND FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT... CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TIMING LOOKS QUITE GOOD ON THE NAM AND RUC SO WILL FOLLOW THEM CLOSELY. NOTICED MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING. WILL CONTINUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY INDICATE IT WILL BE HARD FOR ANY TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SEVER HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WILL GIVE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS. CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FRONT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO GOING MVFR. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS AND VSBY MVFR. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND COULD BE OVER 35 KTS IN ORF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049- 060>085-087>094. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...MPR/LSA SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LKB/JAB MARINE...MAS

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