Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 281236
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
836 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
Strong high pressure will remain off the Southeast coast through
the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over
the area today. This boundary will lift north to around the Mason
Dixon line on Friday, with the front remaining in the vicinity
over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows hi pressure off the Se coast with a
frontal boundary draped across extreme northern VA into the
Delmarva. This front remains in the vicinity today as a potent
mid-level shortwave trough over the TN valley approaches from the
west. Weak embedded shortwaves aloft out ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave trough, in conjunction with a weak sfc
trough, will lead to scattered-likely shras/tstms this aftn/eveng
(pops range from 40% se to 70% nw). Best chance of rain is late
aftn/early eveng just as previous days this week. SPC still has
much of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather given the
better deep-layer shear (30 kt) than previous days as well as
decent thermodynamics and weak shortwave energy aloft. Continued
mention in HWO...with the main concerns being localized damaging
wind gusts and heavy rain. Otherwise, heat advisory continues for
se va/ne nc this aftn with heat indices expected to reach the
105-109 range. Temps max out in the lo/mid 90s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By tonight/Friday the aforementioned weak boundary washes out
near the Mason-Dixon line and we`ll wait for the next cold front
to approach from the north by late Friday. A potent shortwave is
also expected to cross the area late tonight into midday Friday
and will be the focus for additional shwrs/tstms. Will have high
chc (40-50%) across northern areas Friday afternoon with lower
chances S-SE (farther removed from the best support). Cannot rule
out the potential for some heavy rain given PWs in excess of 2".
However, there`s too much uncertainty at this time to warrant a
flash flood watch. Not as hot across the north Friday given the
added cloud cover and convection. Highs Friday from the upr 80s
north to the low/mid 90s south. May need another heat advisory
south. Lows Thursday night in the 70s.
The next cold front washes out across the area Saturday and may
touch off additional convection. Pops were placed at 30-40% for
the afternoon. Highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will feature more normal temps for this time
of year, but there will be decent chances for showers and tstms
thru Mon. A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Sat
ngt into Tue morning, with the highest POPs (40-50%) Sat ngt into
Mon morning. The POPs will decrease fm N to S later Mon thru Tue,
with most of the area dry later Tue thru Wed, as high pressure
blds in fm the NNE. Max temps will generally range fm the mid 80s
to near 90, with min temps ranging fm the upr 60s to mid 70s.
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mainly VFR conditions across area terminals this morning.
Exception is with some short-lived MVFR at SBY with MIFG/Patchy
ground fog, but expect this to diminish by 28/14z. Otherwise, main
wx maker will be along stationary boundary situated west to east
just to our north across nrn VA and ne MD early this morning. Dry
conditions are expected through midday under sct high clouds, with
scattered showers/tstms developing after 18z. The aforementioned
boundary will remain in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region
through Monday resulting in a 30-50% chc of afternoon/evening
showers/tstms through Monday. Best chcs for convection remains
across the northern tier of CWA, mainly along and N of a RIC-SBY
line after 20z. Have held out of TAF for now, with timing still
uncertain...but will likely have to account for areal coverage of
convection with 18Z TAF.
-- End Changed Discussion --
A stationary front over the region today will gradually lift north
tonight as low pressure tracks across the nrn Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure will remain anchored off the
Southeast coast. The wind will generally be southerly at 5-10kt
today and increase to 10-15kt tonight. Scattered showers/tstms are
expected this afternoon and evening and any tstms have the potential
to produce strong wind gusts. A cold front will push through the
region Friday producing a wind shift to nw with speeds remaining 10-
15kt. The front drops south of the area Friday night resulting in an
e wind of 5-10kt. The front lifts back to the north Saturday into
Saturday night with the wind becoming se 10-15kt. The front settles
over the region Sunday and pushes off the coast early next week.
Seas average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for