Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251740 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 140 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast today through Thursday...then push well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday. Low pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Late morning analysis indicating upper level ridge axis located from off the Carolina coast NNW to the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure is centered off the SE coast. Area 12Z soundings depict 850 mb temps of 12-13 C...progged to rise to 14-15 C by 00z this evening. Current readings as of 15Z are into the upper 70s to lower 80s most locations and forecast highs mainly into the upper 80s inland /lower-mid 80s along the coast appear on track (a few of the normally hotter sensors inland could hit 90 F). Relatively light SW flow will probably allow flow to shift onshore at the immediate coast by early aftn (where temperatures will be nearly steady or fall slightly). Mainly sunny skies today, perhaps some FEW/SCT cu inland for a few hrs from 18-21Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper rdg and sfc hi pres will be off the cst or right alng the cst Thu thru Fri. Expect a mostly sunny or partly sunny sky both days with a little more humidity, as sw or s flo continues. With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect High temps in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland/piedmont of va/nc. High temps ranging thru the 80s ovr the lwr md and va ern shr. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time this season (see climate section). Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs the next few days. Have slgt or sml chc pops ovr wrn/nw counties for Thu aftn, and just slgt chc pops for now ovr those same areas for Fri aftn, due to potential lee trof and weak instability alng/east of the mountains. Highs on Fri in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/lwr 80s immediate cst. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive than other long range models and have therefore trended the forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches). && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Latest surface analysis centers high pressure off the Southeast Coast this afternoon. The result is VFR conditions and south to southwest winds at or below 10 knots. Few to scattered high clouds above 20k feet AGL are passing across the northern local area this afternoon. Due to weak flow, expect a light seabreeze to develop this afternoon near the coast with winds directions becoming easterly, but remaining at or below 10 knots. Dry conditions persist through tonight with some patchy fog possible over the Piedmont. No restrictions expected at the TAF sites. Moisture increases Thursday and Friday with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the Piedmont into central VA. Moisture associations with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected to spread precipitation into the area late in the weekend into early next week.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr the local wtrs. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) * 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites: (Avg Date / Last Yr): * RIC: May 13 / May 12 * ORF: May 17 / May 12 * SBY: May 27 / Jun 1 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...SAM MARINE...ALB CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.