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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210952
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
552 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the
weekend while Tropical Storm Jose will linger south of the New
England Coast. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the
Bahamas and Bermuda early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure building
northwest of the region. Some patchy fog will remain possible across
portions of the Piedmont and NE NC through early this morning before
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and
unseasonably warm temperatures (around 6-8 degrees above normal for
late September) are expected again this afternoon with highs ranging
from the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s further inland. A
stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible across NE NC this
afternoon, but am expecting the majority of any precipitation to
stay well south of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure building
northwest of the region. Some patchy fog will remain possible across
portions of the Piedmont and NE NC through early this morning before
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and
unseasonably warm temperatures (around 6-8 degrees above normal for
late September) are expected again this afternoon with highs ranging
from the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s further inland. A
stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible across NE NC this
afternoon, but am expecting the majority of any precipitation to
stay well south of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior
NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a much weakened/remnant
circulation (of Jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the nrn mid-
Atlantic coast (12Z/20 GFS more aggressive in that scenario
than the 12Z/20 ECMWF). Regardless...expecting some increase in
clouds and will carry minimal PoPs by Mon...esp near the coast
as winds turn (a little) more onshore. Lows Sat night in the
l-m60s...except u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the
m-u60s. Highs Sun/Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the coast...m80s
inland.

Wx conditions Tue-Wed will depend on track of Tropical Cyclone
Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would
bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to
the E would result in drier wx. For now...generally taking the
middle of the road/blend of all guidance meaning...VRB
clouds/20-40% PoPs (highest E) Mon night-Tue night. Monitor
forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as
high pressure influences our weather pattern. Some patchy MVFR fog
cannot be ruled out early this morning at typical fog prone sites
(PHF/SBY) but confidence is still too low to include in the
forecast. Otherwise, any patchy fog quickly dissipates after sunrise
with VFR conditions expected during the day on Thursday.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend period as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Jose is located SE of Cape Cod early this
morning and is forecast to slowly back to the WSW today through
Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located N of the Dominican
Republic early this morning and is forecast to track to the NNW
through Saturday and then NNE through Monday about equidistant from
the Carolina coast and Bermuda.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-5ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall below
5ft today. However, the SCA for hazardous seas will continue, and
has been extended to 10z Saturday as seas are forecast to rebuild to
4-5ft later tonight into Friday. Seas are expected to remain
elevated, generally 4-6ft into the weekend as swell arrives from
Maria. SCAs for seas will likely be needed through the weekend. The
bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early
to middle portions of next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the
official forecast track of Maria. A further increase in seas is
expected Monday through Wednesday along with an increasing northerly
wind Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tidal departures are averaging ~1.5ft above normal in the
Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers early this morning, with
1.0-1.5ft above normal for the ocean and mouth of the Bay. Most
locations in the Bay and tidal rivers are likely to reach or
exceed minor flood thresholds during the next high tide today,
with Bishops Head potentially approaching moderate this
afternoon. Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended to cover
the next high tide cycle. For the ocean-side and mouth of the
Bay, Ocean City is expected to touch minor flooding this
morning, with other locations along the coast falling a few
tenths short of minor flooding. Note, the primary coastal
flooding threat the the VA Ern Shore is on the Bay-side.
Additional minor flooding is possible over the next few days as
tidal anomalies remain above normal due to the presence of
energetic swell from tropical storm Jose and eventually
hurricane Maria this weekend.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to
subside.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ024-025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ089-090-099.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ093-095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075-
     077-078-084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ