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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
...STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY.  SLIGHT CHC POPS REACH NORTH
THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND COUNTY. TOTAL
QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
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SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB