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622
FXUS61 KAKQ 100537
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
137 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
Thursday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
occuring both days. The potential for afternoon thunderstorms
will continue this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms will slide eastward through
  southeast Virginia and the lower Maryland Eastern Shore
  through Midnight, potentially impacting portions of northeast
  North Carolina.

-The severe threat will continue to diminish as the storms move
 east late this evening.

-Localized instances of flash flooding will also be possible.

SVR Watches 497 and 499 will remain in effect from 10pm-
Midnight, respectively, to account for the line of
thunderstorms currently moving eastward through southeast VA and
lower MD. Isolated instances of strong winds and also localized
flash flooding will be the main threats as this activity pushes
east through Midnight/early Thurs AM. After storms exit, low
temperatures will fall into the lower-mid 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon through
  late evening on Thursday.

-Scattered thunderstorms are still expected on Friday and Saturday
 as the unsettled pattern continues.

- The flooding threat will be highest on Thursday, but could
  continue on Friday and Saturday.

An upper trough axis crosses the area on Thursday before moving
to our east on Friday. Numerous tstms are expected across much
of the area on Thursday, with the highest coverage shifting a
bit to the south. Temps only warm into the mid 80s-90F...which
will lessen the severe threat (but SPC still has a Marginal Risk
for damaging wind gusts). Given that PWs will still be around
2.0" on Thursday (in addition to the rain that fell yesterday
and is expected today), WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall across much of the area. We finally start to see some
upper height rises on Friday and Saturday, but diurnally driven
tstms will continue each day (although coverage will be less
than what is expected on Thursday). Additionally, the swath of
2.0"+ PWs will be shunted to our SE by Friday/Saturday. So while
there is certainly a possibility of flooding, it won`t be as
high (or widespread) as what is expected today/Thu. Temperatures
will be around seasonal averages on Fri/Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid through early next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable (but somewhat unsettled) July weather pattern is
expected late this weekend into early next week. The upper ridge
will try to build back toward the area, with decently fast zonal
flow aloft expected across the northern United States and southern
Canada. This will result in typical diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day from Sun-Tue. The good news is the storm
coverage will be isolated to perhaps scattered. Exact details are
difficult to pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any
storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain
expected from today-Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal
averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

Storms have dissipated and showers remain near the terminals
early this morning. The showers will continue for the next few
hours, with dry wx expected to prevail from 09-16z. The main
flight concern in the near term is the potential for MVFR to IFR
CIGs from now-15z (lowest at KRIC/KSBY). CIGs become BKN
between 3000-5000 ft later today. Scattered tstms are possible
as early as 17-19z at SBY/ORF/PHF...with storms possible later
this aftn/this evening at RIC/ECG. The coverage of convection
won`t be as high today as it has been the past two days, but any
storm will be capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs and gusty
winds to 25-30 kt. Storms should dissipate by 04-05z. For now,
have VCSH in the TAFs and may add PROB30/TEMPO groups with the
12z TAF issuance.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected from Fri through the weekend, along with the potential
for early morning ground fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue as high pressure offshore keeps
SSW winds.

- Another round of showers and strong storms is likely late this
afternoon into the overnight period.

High pressure well offshore and a surface trough inland is resulting
in SSW winds 10-15 kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue
through the forecast period. However, the gradient tighten ups a bit
this evening as the inland/lee trough sharpens late tonight. A brief
period of SCA winds are possible in the mouth of the Ches. Bay late
tonight/early tomorrow, but confidence is not high on reaching the
threshold, as local wind probs continue to keep 30-40% chance of
sustained 18 kt winds during this period. In addition, CAMs show the
highest wind speeds to be associated with the convection, which
would be handled with SMWs. Strong to severe storms will be a
concern again this evening into tonight with slightly better flow
aloft than was present yesterday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning
are the main marine threats from storms this evening. Beyond
tonight, the sub-SCA SSW winds will continue tomorrow and Friday
with winds becoming 5-10 kt by Friday morning, but afternoon and
evening convection continues.

There is a Low Rip Current Risk at all beaches today and
Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075>090-092-509>523.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC/RHR