Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 182338
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
638 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
High pressure builds in from the west tonight then settles over the
area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night as
another front moves in by Friday. Low pressure will intensify as it
lifts northeast and into the Great Lakes region early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
S/W energy quickly moving east and offshore late this afternoon.
Reports of pea upwards to dime sized hail with the cells that
tracked SE across interior SERN VA between 12-2 pm. Will keep
isolated pops in across NE NC through 00Z although expect these
shwrs to quickly dissipate by or shortly after sunset.
Otw, high pressure building in from the west will dry out the column
resulting in a mstly clr to pt cldy night ahead. Temps remain above
normal with lows mid 30s NW to lwr 40s SE.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high over the region Thursday results in a dry day across the fa.
Expect pt to mstly sunny skies with highs between 55-60. The high
moves east Thursday evening as moisture approaches from the west
after midnight. Latest suite of models keep the fa dry through 09Z
with light rain developing mainly west of I95 by 12Z. Dry with
increasing cloudiness through 06Z then low chc pops west of I95
late. Pcpn remains liquid with lows 35-40.
Friday progged rather wet as a decent overrunning event setting up
ahead of an approaching warm front. Likely pops spread across the fa
throughout the day except categorical pops NWRN zones during the
morning. QPF one quarter inch or less. Highs in the mid to upr 50s.
Best forcing pushes offshore Friday evening as low pressure moves
east and out into the Vacapes with weak high pressure building into
the area. Evening pops will be confined to areas east of I95 with
skies remaining cloudy after midnight. Could see patchy fog/drizzle
develop with lows 40-45.
Latest data supports the weak high moving offshore Sat morning with
moisture from the south quickly advancing NE across the Mid Atlantic
region Sat afternoon. Thus, will carry chc pops mainly south of I64
after 18Z. Highs Sat in the mid 50s to lwr 60s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A period of warm and wet weather is expected during at least the
first half of the extended period. Upper level ridge axis lifts
northeast of the region Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a
shortwave lifting from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, a potent upper low tracks across the Southern Plains into
the Gulf States Sunday. Deep layer southwesterly flow will advect
anomalous precipitable water values into the region ahead of the
approaching lead shortwave energy. Strong isentropic lift will
result in widespread precipitation overspreading the region Saturday
night into Sunday. Have retained likely POPs across the forecast
area Sunday. Cannot rule out some convection across the southern
local area Sunday, nearest the lifting warm frontal boundary. Highs
Sunday in the mid to upper 50`s north to low 60`s south. The upper
low ejects northeast into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night as an
associated area of low pressure lifts over the Carolinas. Likely
POPs continue Sunday night thanks to anomalous moisture and
impressive forcing for ascent. Lows in the mid to upper 40`s north
to mid 50`s south. There remains some spatial differences with
respect to the surface low placement and potential dry slotting into
Monday, but will continue with high end chance to likely POPs as the
upper low parks over the region. Highs in the upper 50`s to low
60`s. The upper and surface lows lift northeast of the region
Tuesday, with drying conditions southwest to northeast. Highs
Tuesday in the mid to upper 50`s. Upper/surface high pressure
expected Wednesday ahead of the next approaching storm system. Highs
generally in the upper 50`s to low 60`s.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and generally clear skies are expected over the
area for the TAF period. Have seen some lower-end VFR ceilings
(~4000ft) at SBY through the late afternoon and into this
evening. Added a BKN035 group at SBY to account for this, expect
clouds to scatter out relatively quickly here (after 02Z).
Winds will remain mainly light and variable out of the W and NW
as high pressure settles into the region
Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions will be Friday as the next low
pressure system approaches the region. Adverse aviation
conditions may prevail through much of the upcoming weekend as
series of disturbances are expected to track across the area.
Latest surface analysis places the cold front over the Southeast
States with high pressure centered over central Kentucky. Obs
indicate a northwest wind of 10-15 knots over the waters this
afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet and waves 1-2 feet. The high slowly builds
eastward tonight as low pressure deepens over the western Atlantic.
Northwest winds of 10-15 knots persist. High pressure and sub-SCA
conditions prevail over the waters through Thursday night. Seas 2-4
feet and waves 1-2 feet. A warm front lifts through the region
Friday, but southerly winds of only 10-15 knots expected. A weak
meso-low progged to form along the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night,
but a weak gradient and high pressure over the western Atlantic will
result in light winds again Saturday. Onshore flow ahead of a strong
area of low pressure Sunday, will increase to 15-25 knots Sunday
night through Monday. A period of low end gales is possible,
especially across the northern coastal waters. Onshore flow will
push seas to 5-6 feet late Sunday, and upwards of 7-10 feet into
Monday. Sub-SCA conditions return Tuesday (although seas will likely
be slow to subside) as the low lifts northeastward, away from the