Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240734 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 234 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered over the south central states today and builds east into the local area for Thursday and Friday. The highs slides off the coast for the weekend. The next cold front arrives Sunday accompanied by showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Dry/cooler (though near seasonable) today w/ sfc hi pres centered over the south central CONUS...building E to the Gulf coast region by aftn. Sunny to start this morning...then some increase in clouds by midday/afternoon (though still averaging at worst partly sunny). Low level thicknesses and 850mb temps support highs from the u40s-around 50F on the ern shore and mainly l-m50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models depict a fast moving trough aloft swinging through the region tonight...accompanied by BKN-OVC CIGS (clearing out late). Lows in the u20s-l30s. Quick shot of low level CAA Thu. Mainly sunny and a few degrees cooler Thu w/ highs from the l-m40s NE to around 50F south central VA/interior NE NC. Lighter winds/clear Thu night as the sfc hi pres becomes centered invof the local area. Lows mainly in the 20s. Sunny...turning turning milder Fri with highs u40s-around 50F NE to the m-u50s W of Ches Bay/inland. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall the models continue to advertise a decent chance for more significant rain on the coming weekend, but there are still some pretty decent differences on timing and storm development that the confidence on the amount of rain and the timing is still not extremely high. The extended period begins with high pressure in place across the region, but the high has moved off the coast with the flow turning more southerly to southwesterly. This should allow for modification of temperatures Friday night with most locations staying above freezing with readings in the mid to high 30s. The 12z GFS has slowed compared to yesterdays forecast so it appears that dry weather will persist with a good warm up in place. Have trended the forecast a little warmer than much of the guidance toward the MEX values which are mainly in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. From Saturday night into Monday time frame, the models vary greatly as far as timing and how much moisture is available based upon whether the system phases or not. The GFS has kept the two stream separate until the low is well out to sea, but the trend with it has been to slowing. On the other hand the 00z ECMWF has been strong and phased the low with the upper trough actually briefly getting a negative tilt over the Mid-Atlantic states late on Sunday. Now the 12z ECMWF is not as strong and the phasing is weaker with the trough remaining positively tilted. So this makes for quite a bit of uncertainty with how much moisture and rain is possible. Right now have the highest pops on Sunday into Sunday night as this is the time period where the models do agree it will rain. The question would be does it start earlier on Sat night or how long does it linger into Monday. So have tried to hold on some lower pops on both ends as the timing is uncertain. Have kept the mild temperatures for the period however with the sw flow with lows in the u40s - l50s and highs in the u50s - l60s. By monday night, cooler and drier weather is expected to return as high pressure builds eastward into the region and this should persist through mid week. Temperatures will be cooler on tuesday with highs in the mid - upper 40s and lows getting toward freezing in the u20s- l30s. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF forecast period. A weak trough aloft crosses the region tonight w/ BKN CIGs 8-12 kft...otherwise sfc hi pres builds into the region through Fri. The next cold front approaches fromt the W Sat...and potentially brings flight restrictions as it crosses the local area Sun. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, a cold front was pushing to just west of the Ches Bay. Southwest or west winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt were still occurring right in advance of the front, and SCAs will continue until 7 pm over the Rivers/Ches Bay and Currituck Snd, and until 10 pm or midnight for the coastal waters. Front will move out to sea during this evening/early tonight, with winds becoming west 5-15 kt. West winds 5-15 kt on Wed, will become northwest Wed night. There is another surge of colder air late Wed night into Thu aftn, which will result in NW winds 10-20 kt with higher gusts possible. Waves and seas may increase by a foot to 2 to 4 ft with this surge Thu. Conditions improve by Fri, as high pressure builds into and over the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MAS

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