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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201823
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose will to meanders south of
the New England coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TS Jose continuing to circulate SSE of srn New England through
the rest of the day. Far ENE locations of FA remain in wrn periphery
of the storms circulation...and will have SCT-BKN SC-AC and
possible ISOLD shras (into this afternoon). Otherwise...subsidence
evident on satl over the rest of the FA and will result in a
mostly sunny...warm day. Moisture now over the ern OH Valley
into the central mtns expected to stay WSW of the local area.
Near term guidance suggests a diminishing trend and no
convection reaching far WSW zones. Highs 85-90F...except l80s at
the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the
fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr
to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of
the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the
weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy
nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at
the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior
NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a weakened/remnant
circulation (of Jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the nrn mid-
Atlantic coast. Expecting some increase in clouds and PoPs by
Mon...esp near the coast. Lows Sat night in the l-m60s...except
u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs
Sun/Mon in the u70s- around 80F at the coast...m80s inland.

Wx conditions Tue-Wed will depend on track of Tropical Cyclone
Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would
bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to
the E would result in drier wx. For now...generally taking the
middle of the road/blend of all guidance...meaning VRB
clouds/20-40% PoPs (highest E) Mon night-Tue night. Monitor
forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TS Jose continues to lift NE away from the area today. SCT-BKN
MVFR SC along the coast this morning becomes SCT CU this aftn.
WNW aob 10 KTS.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift NE (S of the New
England coast) through tonight...then linger (even move back WSW
while weakening) through the weekend. Swells from distant
Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters beginning
Fri...continuing through the weekend.

Will be extending current SCA on the ocean through tonight.
After that...wind speeds will likely be low enough to transition
to SCAHS (where appropriate) into Fri (due to lingering seas aoa
5 ft (on the ocean waters)). Seas will once again ramp up
Friday and into the weekend as swells from distant Tropical
Cyclone Maria begin to impact the region (from the SSE).
Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be be needed on
the ocean waters through early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Made some adjustments to the forecast, with tidal departures
now about the same in the upper Bay as the lower Bay (averaging
close to +1.5 ft throughout). This due to water not exiting the
Bay efficiently (looking at currents at the Cape Henry channel
marker currents). The level at Cambridge may be exacerbated by
an additional few tenths of a foot due to NW winds ~10 kt
trapping water in the inlet. Have upgraded to a coastal flood
warning for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore
(Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset) for the upcoming high tide cycle
later this aftn/early evening. Elsewhere, will allow the
warning for the VA ern shore and ocean side of the MD shore to
expire shortly after noon, with just additional minor flooding
anticipated for the tide tonight and possibly on Thu. Will
update these products early this aftn with additional coastal
flood advisory headlines.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to
subside.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for 9/20:
 RIC...95 in 2005
 ORF...97 in 1895
 SBY...90 in 1983
 ECG...93 in 1942

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ089-090-
     093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>097-
     099-100-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077-
     078-084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJB/ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...