Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210807 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 407 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LO PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE INTO THE ATLC DURING TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR A WHILE THIS MORNG...ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF RAIN OVR NE NC CNTIES NEXT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND AND ATLC OCEAN. OTHERWISE...THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...AS THE LO SLIDES FARTHER INTO THE ATLC AND UPR LVL RDG BLDS OVR THE REGION. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S ALNG THE CST/NEAR THE WTR...TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVENG...WILL PUSH E AND OVR THE MTNS TUE MORNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FM W TO E TUE...ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. MOST OF IF NOT ALL THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN W...AND TWD LATE AFTN/EVENG E ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. LO TEMPS MON NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S AT THE CST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA TUE NGT...WITH SGFNT DRYING AND A PERIOD OF COOLING THEREAFTER (FM AFTR MIDNGT TUE NGT THRU WED). MAINTAINING 30-40% POPS ERN PORTION OF THE FA TUE EVENG...15-25% ELSEWHERE...THEN CLEARING AFTR MIDNGT...AS WINDS BECOME NW. NEAR SEASONABLE/CLEAR-PRTLY CLOUDY WX THEN EXPECTED WED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS...MAINLY ERN PORTION. LO TEMPS TUE NGT RANGING FM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LWR 50S SE. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS- LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HELD ON TO MVFR AT ECG AND ORF EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS SE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY. OUTLOOK...SOME PATCHY FOG IS PSBL TUESDAY MORNING BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS DO NOT POINT TO WIDESPREAD IFR. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES E-NE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST. HV DROPPED SCA OVER THE YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK/UPPER JAMES WITH AM PACKAGE ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, WITH SFC LOW STILL SLOWLY PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE, SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL MID-MORNING, AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (FOR SEAS AND GUSTS TO 20 KT) AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH THIS AFTN. STILL NOTING SEAS OF 8-12FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT BY THIS AFTN. FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS FINALLY FALL BELOW 5FT BY TUE MORNING. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, BUT EXPECT PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF SCA EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT LIVED SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT, QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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