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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS OVERRUNNING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA AND WELL AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
REACHED THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM GENERALLY RICHMOND TO
VIRGINIA BEACH. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS NE NC AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFFSHORE (MID-LATE MORNING)...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AND BECOME MORE CONFINED TO COASTAL NC/VA/MD DURING THE AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. ONSHORE WINDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WAA REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR WED NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND WE`LL BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
MOISTURE DOESN`T APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PCPN WITH THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF...SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. MILD WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.

DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON THURS...A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER
AIR ARRIVES AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE OH VALLEY ON THURS AND GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THURS NIGHT...FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/WEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH DRY
FOR THURSDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTN. AS THE FRONT NEARS LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...HIGHER POPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FA...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60-70%) ALONG
AND NORTH OF A FVX-OFP-SBY LINE FRI AFTN...LOWERING TO 20% OR LESS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. SOUTHERN AREAS (FARTHEST REMOVED
FROM THE COLD FRONT) MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
FRI WHICH...IN ADDITION TO WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS WILL ABOVE AVERAGE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WILL BE A BIT MORE TRICKY TO PREDICT AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND STEADIEST PCPN BY FRI AFT.STILL...
BASED ON THE SLOWER EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WILL ERR ON
THE SIDE OF THE WARM MEX/ECM MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SERN AREAS. NO MAX
TEMP RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED ATTM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF COMPLEX WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PRESENT SURPRISES. THE EURO HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL AND KEPT CLOSE TO IT FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN.

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE NATION. THE FULL IMPACT WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SLOW
THE FRONT DOWN AND RESULT IN SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF PCPN.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HAVE DISREGARDED THE NAM`S IDEA OF SENDING A NEW WAVE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND HANGING THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM WAS IT HAD SURFACE RIDGING OVER
FLORIDA STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS LATE THIS WEEK. WPC HAS
FAVORED THE EURO OVER THE GFS OR NAM.

PCPN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH.
IT MAY NOT END ALTOGETHER BY THE VA/NC BORDER. A SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO SPREAD PCPN INTO SW AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (AS IT LOOKS NOW)
AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AFFECTING THE PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES JUST BARELY GET TO FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING AND
WARM TO ABV FREEZING BY LATE MORNING. THEREFORE...IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AT MOST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGE
FROM THE UPR 30S NW TO MID 50S NEAR THE VA/NC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WARMING TO THE LOW LEVELS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
POPS. CONFIDENCE IN EVENTS DIMINISHES MONDAY AND BEYOND AND KEPT
POPS AT CHC LEVELS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WARM TO UPR 40S FAR NW TO LWR 60S NE NORTH CAROLINA. A SECOND COLD
FRONT REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OVER THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS SPREADING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS
FAR CIGS BELOW 1 K FT ARE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE AREAS
IN E/SE FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS ARE STILL
GENLY > 5 F NEAR THE COAST SO THINK IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS FOR
CIGS TO DROP...THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY IFR CIGS AT KRIC ONLY (FROM
11Z ONWARD). ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE WITH 1500-2500 FT CIGS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09-11Z. LATER TODAY...TOUGH CALL AS THERE IS
CONFLICTING MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO CIGS/VSBYS. IN GENERAL THINK ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF IFR CIGS DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIMEFRAME...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTN...THEN WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...WARMER SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OR SO AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT/SUN. GENLY APPEARS TO BE A RAIN EVENT FOR
KORF/KPHF/KECG/KSBY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP AT KRIC
SAT NIGHT/SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WK HI PRES SITUATED OFF THE SE CONUS CST. WNDS S...OR BECOMING S IN
THE NEXT HR OR SO...WHILE RMNG MNLY AOB 10 KT THROUGH TNGT. HI PRES
RMNS OFFSHORE THROUGH INTO THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A SLO
INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS FM THE SSW. A CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS THU
NGT/FRI MRNG...AND IS SLO TO SINK S ACRS THE WTRS INTO FRI NGT.
WILL KEEP SPEEDS BLO SCA FOR NOW UNTIL RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRI
(DURING FRI). A PD OF SCA (ON N WNDS) PSBL POST CDFNT LATER FRI NGT
INTO SAT. FM SAT NGT INTO ERY NEXT WK...ONSHORE WNDS XPCD SLIDES BY
ACRS NEW ENG...KEEPING SEAS UP ON THE OCN (LO CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT WRT WINDSPEEDS AOA SCA THOUGH).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB