Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260121 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 921 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS BECOME WARM AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES ARE CROSSING THE WRN HALF OF THE FA AND MOVING NNE. WITH THE WSR 88-D IN CLEAR AIR MODE...THE RETURNS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA RATHER THAN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. A WARM FRONT IS BUCKLED DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM WRN VA TO WRN SC AND THEN CUTS ACROSS SRN SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIQUID PRECIP AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING IN NORMAL DIURNAL FASHION BUT WILL THEN BECOME STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH) LATE THIS EVENING...SLOWLY RISING TO THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 SOUTH BY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING TO DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE POST-WARM FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN DRY...BREEZY AND WARM DURING THURSDAY AFTN. S-SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY AFTN WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (LOW-MID 70S AT THE BEACHES). THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR PRECIP CHANCES... FOLLOWED MUCH CLOSER TO THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTN WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM NW (60 PERCENT) TO SE (30 PERCENT) BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT (80 PERCENT UNTIL TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT). LOWS THU NIGHT MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST RAINFALL (AND SUBSEQUENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING) OCCURS. WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S (50 IN SRN HALF OF NE NC). HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NW ON FRI AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT/MOISTURE TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE FILLING IN OF ANY CLOUD BREAKS DURING THE AFTN. POP FORECAST RANGES FROM 30-40 PERCENT NW TO 50-60 PERCENT SE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING THE TIDEWATER AREA AND NE NC FROM WRN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE OCEAN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS HERE AROUND 25-30 MPH FRIDAY AFTN...MAKING FOR A BRISK CHILLY DAY AT THE BEACHES. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOWERS PRIMARILY COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIP PRESENT SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY/MOISTURE...THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE REGION WELL-ROOTED IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES (OR ROUGHLY NEGATIVE 1.5 STD DEV). BREEZY NW WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY (BASED ON NORMAL HIGHS) RATHER THAN LATE MARCH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES CONTS TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT NGT...W/ HI PRES AND DRYING/COOL WX SUN. A CDFNT WILL PUSH ACRS THE RGN SUN NGT ACCOMPANIED BY VRB CLDS/LO CHC SHRAS (ESP N PORTION). HI PRES BUILDS ACRS INTO THE RGN MON INTO WED PROVIDING NR SEASONABLE CONDS. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE U20S-M30S. HIGHS SUN U40S-M50S. LOWS SUN NGT 35-40F. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M50S TO 60S. HIGHS WED FM THE L60S TO ARND 70F. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CIGS. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AVG 5KT OF LESS MOSTLY FROM THE SE-S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING A STNRY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BUT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MEANWHILE...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVG THROUGH WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE AT THEIR WORST FROM 08Z-14Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL AT RIC/SBY AS LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIP MAY PRODUCE LOW CIGS AND FOG. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS. BREEZY SSW FLOW 20-25 KT THU AFTN...AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR AFTN SHRA AND/OR TSRA. RATHER...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE BULK OF PRECIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO 1000 TO 2000 FT IN MODERATE RAIN FROM 06-15Z/FRI. WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE N/NE DURING THIS PERIOD AND AVG 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KORF/KPHF/KECG. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE N/NW...CIGS LIFT...AND PRECIP DIMINISHES. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE... SFC HI PRES RMNS SLO TO EXIT CST THROUGH THIS EVE W/ WNDS GRADUALLY VEERING FM ENE TO SE. W/ HI PRES OFF THE CST LT TNGT AND THU...XPCG INCRSG SSW WNDS...W/ LOW-END SCA SPEEDS 15-25 KTS XPCD AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...ON THE OCEAN AND CURRITUCK SOUND. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. MARGINAL SCA WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CHES BAY/RIVERS (IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE)...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO HOIST AN SCA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT THU...WITH WAVES 3 FT ON THE BAY...UP TO 2 FT ON THE RIVERS/SND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10-15 KTS...WHICH INCRS AS LO LVL CAA KICKS BY FRI MRNG (TO 20-25KT MOST AREAS). WINDS/WAVES/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR A SHORT TIME LT FRI...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE PSBL INTO START OF THE WKND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LKB/JEF MARINE...ALB/JDM

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