Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181518 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1018 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure, well off the Mid Atlantic coast late this morning, will track east northeast farther out to sea this afternoon while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the Southeast Coast will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Friday through Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Late this morning, low pressure that brought the snow to the region, was located well off the Mid Atlc coast. While high pressure was cntrd over nrn LA. Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly this aftn. Limited mixing combined with slowly melting snow should result in rather stable lapse rates, and this will offset mid-level WAA with surface high temps only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will then slide from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the SE Coast tonight through Saturday, and bring dry weather, a clear/sunny sky, and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 20s, with some upper teens possible over the SW piedmont where a thicker snowpack will be present. Highs Friday will mainly be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 20 to around 30F. The airmass will continue to modify Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to perhaps around 60F well inland, with low to mid 50s for the Ern Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving fits transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5...leading to aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system tracking off SE CONUS coast Sun...sfc hi pres and upper level ridging will be dominant Sun into Mon. By late Mon...storm system expected to track into the wrn Great Lakes...w/ its trailing cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs (though 12Z/17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12Z/17 GFS attm). Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal levels) for Tue afternoon-Wed. Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s on the ern shore to 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly 35-40F. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the l50s on the ern shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Drier air slowly filtering from the NW, with mainly VFR conditions at all sites but ECG, and ECG should improve through 12z. Wind will generally be N with gusts to 25 kt near the coast early this morning. The sky gradually become SCT to SKC through 12z, with breezy N to NW winds continuing. VFR/mainly clear for the remainder of the day with winds shifting to the W by aftn. Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions Thursday night through Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds across the region. Next chance for showers (rain) and flight restrictions will arrive later Mon/Mon night. && .MARINE... Added the northern Coastal Waters to the Gale Warning which runs through 7 AM EST. Continue to see gusts of 35 to 40 knots over all Coastal Waters/Mouth of the Bay this morning. A few gusts to 35 knots will also be possible over the Bay this morning, particularly on the east side of the Bay. The surface low has moved off the coast and will continue to push out to sea through the day. Strong CAA continues this morning with Gale and SCAs in effect for all waters. Seas are also churned up this morning with seas of 6 to 10 feet over the coastal waters (waves 3 to 5 feet). High pressure settles back into the area today allowing for winds to quickly diminish through the morning. High pressure will persist through the weekend allowing for sub-SCA conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJB

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