-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
161
FXUS61 KAKQ 010559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
159 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid
conditions through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the
west Tuesday, and slowly crosses the local area Tuesday night
through Wednesday, bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the
week into next weekend as high pressure brings somewhat lower
humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 755 PM EDT Monday...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening.

- Mild tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Evening surface analysis depicted high pressure across the area
with a few isolated showers across the region. Convection has
struggled this afternoon, and given the loss of sunlight in the
next 30-60 minutes, it appears unlikely that anything more than
isolated showers/storms are possible this evening. Nevertheless,
have kept a slight chance PoP (15-20%) across the far NW/N
portions of the area through this evening. Any convection tapers
off tonight with partly cloudy skies expected overnight. Temps
as of 750 PM ranged from the mid-upper 80s for most with dew
points in the low-mid 70s. The clouds and a SSW wind of 5-10 mph
overnight will help keep the area warm and humid overnight with
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday night will bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to the area with a Marginal to Slight SVR Risk
  and a Marginal to Slight ERO risk for day 2 (Tue AM through
  early Wed AM).

- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Marginal ERO for Wed in SE zones).

A cold front will advance towards our area from the NW Tuesday.
PW values increase to in excess of 2.0" as the front approaches
Tuesday afternoon. A little better flow aloft arrives later
Tuesday aftn and evening associated with the upper trough,
especially across the northern tier of the area. This could
result in improved storm organization and the entire area is in
a marginal severe risk for Tuesday, with a Slight Risk for the
northern tier of the local area from Louisa Co. to Dorchester
Co. Timing from the severe threat will generally be during the
late afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, locally heavy
rain is possible with the aforementioned moisture rich airmass,
and WPC has a Slight risk over northern portions of the FA and a
Marginal into SE VA. The heavy rain threat should linger later
into the evening compared to the severe threat. There is still
some question as to mid level lapse rates (the NAM is showing
somewhat better values in the 6-6.5C range Tuesday night, but
the GFS remains weaker). Overall, the main threat will be
damaging wind gusts with hail still a fairly minimal concern.
Hot and humid Tuesday, but not unusual for the start of July
ahead of the front with high temperatures ranging from the mid
90s SE (where PoPs stay fairly low through most of the day), to
around 90F in the piedmont. Peak heat indices in the upper 90s W
to near 105F SE.

30/12z guidance continues to trend slower with the front as it
pushes SE Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping increased rain
chances to SE VA and NE NC through Wed aftn, although there will
likely be a late night/early morning diurnal weakening, before
coverage increases Wednesday afternoon. The primary hazard
Wednesday will be heavy rain as PW values remain at or above
2.0" ahead of the front. However, a few highly localized strong
wind gusts are possible given moisture laden updrafts in a high
PW airmass. High temperatures drop into the 80s Wednesday with
PoPs ranging from 15-30% N to 60-80% S with the front lingering
over the local area. 30/12z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front
pushing S of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW
values dropping to 80-90% percent of normal Thursday. A
secondary cold front approaches from the N Thursday. However,
PoPs are generally < 15% given a drier airmass, with 15-20% near
the Albemarle Sound. High temperatures return to the lower 90s,
with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through Independence Day and the following weekend.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

The secondary cold front moves through the region Thursday
night. By Friday, surface high pressure builds over the eastern
Great Lakes and moves SE into the local area. Dewpoints are
forecast to only be in the low-mid 60s into central VA to the
upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in the mid 80s to near 90F behind
the secondary front, with lows Friday night dropping into the
60s for most of the area, so some relative relief (at least for
early July standards) is expected. Upper ridging will start to
build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by next weekend.
Highs trend back toward the 90s, but dewpoints will be slower to
recover and mainly dry conditions are expected for the
Independence Day holiday weekend. More humid conditions along
with low chances of diurnal showers/tstms arrive early next week
well in advance of another cold front moving into the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Monday...

Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower this evening near
RIC or SBY, however, confidence is too low to reflect in the
tafs. Otherwise, any isolated showers/storms this evening taper
off overnight with mainly SCT mid level clouds continuing
overnight. A cold front gradually approaches on Tue with a
prefrontal trough across the area. This will allow for scattered
storms to develop Tue afternoon into Tue night. Recent trends
have been for slower timing of storms across the region. As
such, confidence in storms before 22-23z was too low at
PHF/ORF/ECG to reflect in the tafs at this time. However,
confidence is highest at RIC and SBY, particularly from 20z
through 00z. As such, have added PROB30s for RIC/SBY to account
for this. Storm chances increase to 70-90% from W to E from 21z
Tue through Tue night. Storms may produce strong to severe
winds Tue afternoon into Tue night. CIGs remain mainly VFR with
CU developing Tue afternoon (~5000 ft CIGs). MVFR or IFR VIS
with MVFR CIGs are possible with convection, particularly Tue
night. Additionally, CIGs lower to MVFR at RIC/SBY by 3-4z Wed
with MVFR/IFR CIGs spreading across the area Tue night.
Otherwise, winds remain SSW/SW ~10 kt tonight, becoming SW 10-15
kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tue.

The cold front will be slow to cross the region Wednesday
with scattered showers/storms likely (particularly across SE
VA/NE NC). These showers/storms will be capable of producing
brief flight restrictions (mainly due to VIS) in heavy rain
along with strong winds. VFR conditions return Thursday through
Saturday as drier air builds into the region behind the cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories into effect this morning through early
Wednesday for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through the
extended period.

SW flow continues this morning with high pressure well to the SW
offshore and a cold front approaching from the W. Winds early this
morning are generally 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt, though middle
portions of the Ches Bay are 20 to 25kt. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for coastal waters south of Parramore Island and the
Currituck Sound, The Ches. Bay and lower James river. Winds will
likely have a brief decrease in the late morning/early afternoon
today as the marine layer becomes more stable, but will increase
once again this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm associated with
the front as expected to bring heavy rain and potentially damaging
wind gusts. SCAs will be issued as need. Approx. time frame is
between late this evening through tomorrow morning. SCA for the
northern coastal waters will go into effect 11 AM this morning as
winds and seas increase late morning. Waves will peak in the bay
early morning this at 2-3 ft with an occasional 4 ft wave. Late
afternoon/evening, seas will peak at 3-5 ft. Winds and seas remain
elevated through early Wednesday morning before starting to taper
off. Looking at the extended forecast, benign marine conditions will
resume by mid-week and are expected to continue through the holiday
weekend.

The rip current risk is moderate for all beaches today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC/KMC