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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191726
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
126 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak trough of low pressure will produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms around the area this afternoon into this evening.
High pressure aloft builds toward the Mid Atlantic for Thursday
into the weekend, bringing hot and humid conditions to the
entire region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current analysis indicates a weak trough aloft centered over
southeast VA/eastern/central NC with a sfc lee trough over the
entire region. Skies are currently mainly sunny for the western
2/3 of the CWA with dew pts in the 60s, with SCT-BKN cumulus
developing over SE VA/NE NC/and the eastern shore (where dew
pts are mainly 70-75 F). The trough of low pressure (aloft) will
gradually shift ESE acrs the area and twd the coast this aftn
through this evening. This trough combined with a little more
heat/instability will result in isolated showers/tstms this aftn
into this evening, mainly with the seabreeze closer to the
coast and with any storms developing on the mtns and drifting
east into the western portions of the CWA later this aftn. Highs
will range fm the mid-upper 80s northeast NC to the lower-mid
90s along/west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thu thru Fri, rising heights fm upper level high pressure over
the cntrl Plains and MS valley will build into the region. This
will allow for increasing heat through the period. Except for
isolated sea breeze boundary induced showers or tstms Thu aftn,
expect dry and hot conditions with highs mainly in the lower to
mid 90s. Heat index values will be between the upper 90s to
lower 100s.

Fri will be hotter with high temps ranging fm the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees. A heat advisory will be likely on Fri, as heat
index values will be around 105 degrees over most of the region.
This is certainly not unprecedented heat for this part of the
country during this time of year, but it will be very hot
nonetheless, and potentially dangerous for those not prepared
for it.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda High retrogrades to a position well off the Southeast
Coast Fri night into early next week. This allows the overall
upper level flow to flatten...becoming more swly early next week
as another upper trough drops out of Canada and over the Upper
Midwest. Hot and muggy conditions will persist through the
weekend. Expect high temperatures in the upper 90s to around
100F inland and low-mid 90s beaches. Lows in the mid-upper 70s
Fri-Sun nights. Dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will result in
widespread heat indices of 105-109F (heat advisory criteria). If
forecast highs increase a degree or two (which has been the
trend in 12z model runs over the past several days), this would
be enough to push heat indices into excessive heat warning
values; will monitor closely. Although Monday highs are a few
degrees cooler than the weekend, they could end up being just as
hot as the upper trough starts to dig into the Upper Midwest and
reinforces sw flow over the region and thus the continued influx
of hot 850mb temps. Periods of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms should be anticipated each aftn/evening...
especially invof lee trough axis which remains steadfast in this
hot/humid airmass regime.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Outside of isolated convection this aftn/early this evening,
expect VFR conditions at the TAF sites thru midday Thu.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected Thu into the weekend, as high
pressure builds toward the Mid Atlc region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Trough sfc-aloft to gradually weaken through tonight...then hi
pres rebuilds over the waters Thu into the weekend. Prevailing
winds will remain SSW through the period...mainly less than 15
kt...though some increase in speeds late each day into the
overnight hours. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Heatwave is expected to develop, mainly Friday through Sunday.
The 2nd half of July is climatologically the hottest few weeks
of the year so we still may not set any daily records at our
main climate sites. For reference, record highs Thursday
through Sunday are listed below:

* Date: Thu(7/20) Fri(7/21) Sat(7/22) Sun(7/23)

* RIC:  103/1930  104/1930  103/1952  103/1952
* ORF:  102/1942  101/1926  102/2011  103/2011
* SBY:  104/1930  106/1930  104/1930  103/2011
* ECG:  104/1942  102/1987  104/1952  104/1952

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ radar is inoperable and return to service is not expected
until Thursday (see FTMAKQ for details).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ