Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 041933 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z. SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN). STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE. LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S. 00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED.
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&& .MARINE... WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20 KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST. NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-3 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...DAP MARINE...TMG

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