Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220814 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 314 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure crosses the area today. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula tonight through Friday. A strong cold front crosses the local area Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... Mid level shortwave crosses the area today. Light rain/shwrs will accompany this feature as it slowly sags SE with the best forcing progged across the Piedmont. Thus, will maintain 30-50 pop west of the Ches Bay with a buffer area of slght chc pop along the coast. Continued mild despite the cloudy cover and sporatic pcpn. Highs in the 60s except 55-60 at the beaches due to the SSE flow off the water. QPF less than one tenth inch. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Models indicated just enuf left moisture around tonight to keep slght chc pops in the grids. Kept pcpn type as shwrs for now. Could also be some patchy fog after midnight as dew point temps rise. Mild with lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. Weak high pressure ridge extends west from the main "Bermuda" high Thurs thru Fri night. This keeps AKQ unseasonably warm in between the low off the FLA coast and deepening trough over the upper midwest. Some model differences wrt how much moisture gets trapped across the area so will maintain slght chc pops Thurs. Dry Thurs night through Fri night ahead of the approaching cold front as the southerly flow builds H5 heights. Some record highs will be challenged Thurs but Fri numbers appear safe since they are higher. See CLI section below. LL thicknesses and H85 temps support highs both days in the low to mid 70s west of the Ches Bay, 65-70 along the coast. Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. 00z runs from both the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement for a strong cold frontal passage between 18Z Sat and 00Z Sun. Data continues to support a swath of moisture and marginal instability with the boundary with the best forcing/dynamics from the northern zones on northward. However, decent low level moisture will exist ahead of it (sfc temps btwn 70-75 with 55-60 degree dew points) along with gusty SW winds (15-25 KTS). These combined with the available stability parameters results is the chance for tstrms across the fa during the afternoon shifting to the coast through the early evening. Thus, make some adjustments to the grids allowing tstrms to be included in the text products. Clearing and colder Sat night. Lows in the mid 30s-lwr 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Behind the front, temperatures will return close to normal for Sunday with highs in the 50s under a breezy WNW flow and sunny skies. GFS/ECWMF differ slightly beyond that, but overall indicate high pressure building across the SE CONUS with a return SW flow developing for Mon-Tue as yet another low pressure system moves from the upper midwest to the upper Great Lakes. Dry Mon, with a 20-30% PoP across the N for Tue. Temperatures should trend up once again with highs back into the 60s most areas Mon and approaching 70 F by Tue aftn for highs across the southern 1/2 of the area. Lows will avg in the 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions to start off the forecast period as BKN CI continue to spill east of the mts ahead of an approaching trof of low pressure. This trof slowly sags SE across the region after 12Z. Models depict a fairly quick moistening of the mid levels with pcpn mainly confined to the Piedmont. Thus, SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS along with VCSH will be confined to RIC although sporatic sprinkles/very light rain possible at PHF by 18Z. These CIGS extend past 00Z with slowly improving conditions expected after 06Z as the system moves south of the area. OUTLOOK...Complex frontal system will affect the area late in the week with small chances for showers Thu and Thu night. A strong cold front passes through the Mid Atlantic States Saturday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry weather returns for Sunday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue for the next few days with sfc high pres centered offshore. Winds will be southerly aob 10 kt today with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. S/SW winds to avg 10-15 KT (or less) then persist until at least Fri night ahead of the next cold front. With strong low pres over Florida Thu pushing off the southeast coast Fri, latest Wavewatch indicating some increasing long period swell moving up to the local cstl wtrs for Fri-Sat with seas building to 4-6 ft which would lead to SCA headlines along the coast starting around Fri night. Then, with some modest cold air behind the cold front on Sat, should see SCA conditions for much of the area Sat night through Sun morning. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for Thu and Fri, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF, ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest (and possibly the warmest). SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24: 2/23 2/24 RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985 ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012 SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012 ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record: * RIC: 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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