Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300805 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 405 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1021 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE NC COAST. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS UPPER LOW PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW H9-85 LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... BY TONIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. TRENDS APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LINE OF 20-30% POPS TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC BY EARLY MON MORNING. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT EXPECT NO IMPACTS ON TAF SITES. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.