Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180248 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1048 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS 0F 01Z...THE EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY GOING WELL. RADAR INDICATES THAT PCPN HAS DRIED UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM 30 TO 20 PERCENT AND SHRUNK THE ADJACENT AREA OF SLGT POPS. STLT AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SKY HAS CLEARED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN AND EXPECT THAT AS A VORT LOBE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. THE PATCHY FOG EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE PIEDMONT. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL BE PSBL AT OTHER LOCATIONS BUT SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO PARTIAL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATCHY FOG AREA...MID TO UPR 50S FARTHER TO THE SE AND AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND SE COAST. STILL HAVE A SLGT CHC SHOWERS BEGINNING IN OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES AFT 12Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST BUT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT PART OF THE FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS. HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... 6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2 COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5 FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2. 4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA NEAR TERM...LSA SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...WRS MARINE...TMG/WRS

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