Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201920 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Some minor changes to T/TD/Sky per latest trends. Forecast generally on track at this time. Sfc hi pres invof nrn FL attm slides slowly off the SE coast this aftn...providing SW winds and a near copy of conditions as Fri (except temps may 3-7 degs F higher). Other than FEW/SCT CI...SKC and highs from the l-m50s near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to the u50s-around 60F inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak upper level trough slides across the SE states and off the coast tonight-Sun as ridging aloft dominates from the TN-OH valleys to the mid-Atlantic states. Potential for patchy FG late tonight/early Sun...otherwise SCT-BKN clouds (averaging out mostly sunny). NAM has a bit of a cool down Sun...generally leaned toward the higher guidance (closer to continuity). 00Z/20 GFS coming more in line w/ recent (and slower) ECMWF runs wrt to next front approaching from the W Mon. SSW flow Mon keeps mild wx over the region w/ partly cloudy conditions. Lows tonight from the u20s-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s on the ern shore to the u50-around 60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u30s. Highs Mon 55-60F near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to 60-65F for most other locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models are in very good agreement in the extended range from 00z Wed through Saturday with the long wave trough pulling out of the Northeastern US Wed and Thursday with a shortwave ridge building in for Friday and Saturday. At the surface, the period begins with NW flow as the surface low over deepens over the nern US. The surface low will lift NE into the Canadian Maritimes by Wed evening. With the NW flow, expect the clouds to clear Tues night into Wednesday but with the cold advection, temperatures will be cooler into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another shortwave will move through the eastern trough on Tuesday and will bring a reinforcing cold front to the area. This will knock temperatures down a couple more degrees on Thursday, but with little moisture expect to see just a few clouds across the northern portion of the CWA. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday night into Friday. The high will remain in place through Saturday before slowly sliding off the coast by late Saturday with SW flow returning. This will allow for good radiation cooling both Thurs and Fri night with temps in the u 20s to l30s Thurs night and low to mid 30s Friday night. For Friday should see lots of sun with highs around the mid 40s over Lower MD and near 50 in southern VA. On Saturday with the return flow the models are indicating return moisture getting in and some showers possible late day, but at this point, not ready to introduce pops so have gone with just slight chance values in the 15 to 20% range. High should continue to modify into the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the 18Z TAF period as sfc hi pres to the S dominates. Light SW wind ~10 kts through this evening becoming light overnight. Some SCT-BKN Stratus develops this evening across the piedmont, but should mix out quickly after sunrise Sun morning. Outlook: Sfc hi pres settles off the SE coast Sun and Mon w/ SKC and dry conditions continuing. Another night of low clouds/patchy fog possible Monday morning. Otherwise, the next chance for widespread precipitation and flight restrictions comes Monday night with a passing cold front. High pres returns later Tue. && .MARINE... Generally benign conditions over the waters through the weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. South/Southwest winds increase today with a slightly increasing pressure gradient. Expect S-SW winds around 10 to 20 knots over the coastal waters this afternoon and 10 to 15 knots over the Bay/Rivers. Winds diminish tonight into Sunday and briefly become N-NW. Winds become S-SW around 10 knots by Sunday afternoon. A cold front approaches the region from the west Monday night then crosses the water on Tuesday. There are some timing issues that still need to be worked out amongst the models with respect to whether the front passes first thing in the morning or in the afternoon. Either way, expect SCA conditions to be possible Tuesday with the fropa. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...AJB/JDM

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