Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180759 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered northwest of the region through mid week. Hurricane Jose will lift northward off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday, then track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast Wednesday and Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest MSAS shows high pressure centered near PIT with a boundary off the Mid Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose was centered about 290 miles SE of HAT and moving north at 9 mph. Todays forecast will be based on two different synoptic weather features, the high to the north and the boundary off the coast. Little impact from Jose expected today except for increasing winds across the SE. Latest model and radar data suggests any pcpn today will be confined to the eastern third of the fa with the highest pops east of the Ches Bay as moisture rotates onshore from the coastal boundary. This moisture will keep skies mstly cldy to cldy as well. Meanwhile, the high to the NW keeps areas along and west of the I95 corridor dry and seasonably warm under pt sunny skies. Any fog burns off around 12Z. Highs 75-80 along the coast, lwr 80s west of the bay. NE winds increase to between 15- 25 mph across the sern coastal areas this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Jose`s effects begin tonight as the system lifts north of 35N latitude, across the Vacapes Tuesday to near 40N latitude by 12Z Wed. Given this track, associated pcpn will be confined to the eastern third of the fa through Tuesday, shifting to the eastern shore Tues night. Closest approach to the eastern shore will be Tues morning where enough deep / wrap around moisture is progged to increase pops into the likely category across Md mainly east of SBY to OXB. Otw, chc pops. Expect a tight QPF gradient as the system will be fighting the drier air to the west. Generally 1/4 to 1/3 inch expected across the Ches Bay and eastern shore areas except 1/2 to 1 inch over the eastern part of the lwr MD eastern shore (near OXB). A NNE wind will increase tonight with speeds of 20-30 mph at the immediate coast with gusts up to 35 mph. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE beach areas. As Jose pushes north Tues, the low-level flow will gradually become NNW through the day with drier mid-level air overspreading the area by the aftn. Remaining breezy over the Ern shore through at least midday Tuesday with a 20-25 mph NNW wind gusting up to 30-40 mph. OXB will likely have the highest winds with gusts up to 45 mph where a wind advisory has been issued. Decreasing clouds from W-E with highs in the upper 70s at the coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Showers end late Tues night across the ern shore. Lows in the 60s. High pressure re-establishes itself over the region Wednesday. Subsidence in the wake of Jose allows for ample sunshine and unseasonably warm temps. Given H85 temps of 15-16C and the dry ground across the Piedmont (i.e. lack of any sgnfcnt rainfall lately), highs should reach the mid-upr 80s. A rogue 90 degree reading is even possible at one of the AWOS sites, but no records are in jeopardy as all the records are above 90.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... After Jose moves northeast, high pressure at the surface and aloft will build across the Ohio Valley into New England. Guidance suggests that the area will keep under weak north to northwest low level flow. As such, the Thu-Sat period should remain dry and mild with high temperatures each day into the 80s Thu/Friday cooling to around 80 for the weekend. The ECMWF has now shown for several runs that the remnmants of Jose may curve westward back into the middle Atlantic by Sunday. With that, have opted to include small chance PoPs for Sunday across the entire region. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Stratus and patchy fog this morning will be the forecast concerns today as the moist onshore flow combines with a coastal trof ahead of Jose. MVFR with periodic IFR CIGS along the coast thru 12Z. MVFR CIGS continue for rest of the forecast period. Low chc for shwrs after 12Z across sern TAF sites as well. Highest confidence of where any shwrs will occur is at ECG so added VCSH there. Best chc for lwr VSBYS in fog will be at RIC where skies remain pt cldy. NE winds btwn 15-25 mph and gusty at times across sern TAF sites. Outlook: Jose closest approach to the coast will be late tonight and Tuesday with periodic shwrs, gusty winds and lwr CIGS. Jose departs to the NE off the srn New England coast Tue night into Thu, as weak high pressure builds in fm the WNW. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tropical storm watch has been converted to a warning over all coastal wtrs as winds/waves/seas ramp up tonight into Tuesday with Hurricane Jose pushing northward offshore. The warning is for 25-35 kt sustained winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas there of 5-8 ft today will increase up to 10-15 ft by Tue morning. Waves over the Bay will also increase as Jose pushes northwards, from 3-5 ft today up to 6-7 ft over the mouth of the Bay tonight. Winds over the Bay and Sound of 15-25 kt will gust up to 30 kt tonight/Tue, with a few gusts up to 35 kt psbl. SCA headlines over the rivers continue as well. Marine conditions then improve into mid week as Jose pushes off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Continue to monitor the track of Jose, with NE winds increasing later today through Tuesday as long period swells gradually increase as well. This will result in water piling up in the Bay and tidal rivers. The potential exists for minor to locally moderate tidal flooding tonight/Tue, continuing into Wednesday, as waters will already be a bit higher than normal given the upcoming new moon. Have issued a high surf advsry for all coastal areas due to nearshore waves increasing to 8-11 ft tonight. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 13- 14 sec periods and 5-8 ft nearshore waves. The risk is expected to remain high into the middle of the week as seas and swell associated with Jose increase.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS CLIMATE...MPR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.