Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 012120 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 420 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... LO LVL CAD HOLDING FIRM ACRS MOST OF THE FA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW HRS...ESP ACRS SE VA/NE NC...WHERE TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE M30S TO L40S. OTRW...READINGS HOVERING NR OR JUST BLO FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES. PCPN RMNS LARGELY SCT AND LGT...AND XPCG THE PCPN AREA TO CONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS EVE INTO OVRNGT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND MOST CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ANOTHER FEW HRS THIS EVE AS TEMPS CONT TO STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING (SLOWEST FM THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA TO DORCHESTER CTY MD). ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMS FM A TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.05 INCH. QUESTION RMNS DO TEMPS RMN BLO FREEZING...ESP WELL INLAND...THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS. NR TERM TEMP GUIDANCE DOES SHOW MOST TEMPS DO REACH/RISE JUST ABV FREEZING...THOUGH THAT IS NOT CERTAIN. WILL CONT MENTION OF AREAS OF FG OVRNGT GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE AND SNOW COVER. LO TEMPS (WELL) INLAND NOT FAR FM FREEZING (ON EITHER SIDE) TO THE M/U30S SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA. SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC. WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE. WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC. AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES... WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 30S. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES HAS MOVD OFF THE COAST AND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE AFFECTED THE CWA SINCE EARLY MORNING. PERIODS OF -FZRA AND SLEET FELL OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 32F. THE WINTRY MIX HAS LESSENED THIS AFTN AS TEMPS EAST OF I95 HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 32F OR BETTER. SOME WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO BE PSBL THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS AND VIS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPO IFR CONDS. AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ENDS THIS AFTN EXPECT MOST TAF CIGS TO DECREASE TO IFR AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPS IN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN A SHALLOW WARM BNDRY AND SW WINDS BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING... FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015: RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1934. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ022>025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ065>068-070>088-099. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...JEF MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...AKQ

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