Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281014 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 614 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND. A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90 (UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS). DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE...
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A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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