Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230605 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A MORE TYPICAL WARM HUMID EVENING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW SETTLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH ONLY A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING IN VICINITY OF THE FL/GA/SC COAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9PM GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS HAVE DISSIPATED. NO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKS NE IN VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE TONIGHT...SO A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR FAR SE PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR NE...TO LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... W/ SFC HI PRES SETTLING OFF THE SE CONUS CST ON WED...INCRSG/DP LYRD SSWLY FLO WILL PUSH HOTTER AIR INTO THE RGN. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS...PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS...OTRW AVGG PSNY. LO LVL MIXING (W/ SSWLY WNDS) SHOULD LWR DEWPTS IN THE AFTN HRS...PREVENTING HEAT INDICES FM RISING TO/ABV 100F. NEXT TROUGH TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGIONS WED INTO WED NGT...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT TWD THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE MNLY 90 TO 95F INLAND...85 TO 90F NR THE CST. TIMING OF NEXT CDFNT INTO/ACRS THE FA WILL BE PRIMARY FCST CONCERN THU INTO FRI. 12Z/22 NAM/GFS ARE A TAD SLOWER THAN THEIR 00Z RUNS W/ PUSHING THE CDFNT SE THROUGH THE FA. HAVE NUDGED POPS A LTL HIGHER ACRS THE FA ON THU DUE TO SLOWER TIMING (STILL 50% FAR N...60% CNTRL/S)...THOUGH THAT TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ANYWAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP CNTRL VA) WHERE PCPN DEFICITS PAST MONTH OR SO AVG A COUPLE/FEW INCHES. THE CDFNT SETTLES S INTO NRN NC THU NGT/EARLY FRI...THEN IS VERY SLO TO PUSH S OF THERE (TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR) DURING REST OF THE DAY FRI. FOR BULK OF FA...XPCG DRYING FM THE N AND W AS SFC HI PRES (1016-1020MB) BUILDS INTO RGN FM THE OH VLY. WILL HANG ONTO 20-30% POPS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NC ON FRI...OTRW P/MSNY W/ DEWPTS FALLING. LO TEMPS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L70S. HI TEMPS THU IN THE M/U80S N...U80S TO L90S S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...L/M80S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COASTAL VA/NC BORDER WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST 23/0800Z. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VARIABLE VISIBILITIES OF 1-5SM AND CIGS FLUCTUATING BTWN 100-1000 FT AGL. AT THIS TIME...KECG AND KSBY SHOULD BE MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM POSSIBLE AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT AGL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 23/1400Z. OTHERWISE...EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTN TODAY AND ALL TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTED. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHUNT PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE. CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE NC COAST WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND LASTS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS AOB 10 KT CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT....THEN REMAIN SW 10 TO 15 KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N-NE AOB 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AGAIN AOB 15 KT BY THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND PROBABLY NOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND EITHER. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS DEPICTION FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-3 FT BUILDING TO ~4 FT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS WINDS BECOME N-NE FRIDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...JDM

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