Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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176 FXUS61 KAKQ 290348 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1148 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain off the Southeast coast into the weekend with a weak frontal boundary lingering to the north of the area through Friday. This boundary slides south this weekend and washes out over the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Latest surface analysis depicts a trough of low pressure over the local area as a quasi-stationary boundary remains well north of the region. Subtropical high pressure remains centered off the southeast coast, with the ridge extending northward into the local area. The flow continues to carry the best forcing for ascent north of the region, but stronger height falls working into the local area has helped convection become better organized. Mid level flow also remains 20-30 kt, with effective shear around 30-40 knots. Earlier showers and the loss of daytime heating has resulted in less instability across the region, but based on the shear and upstream forcing, expect thunderstorms to persist across the northern local area through late tonight. Main threat will become heavy rainfall, but cannot rule out gusty winds at times. Frequent lightning also expected. Expect the southern local area to remain dry. Otherwise, sky averages cloudy north to mostly clear south. Mild and humid with lows generally in the mid 70`s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned weak boundary remains stationary near the Mason-Dixon line Friday and we`ll wait for the next cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. Shortwave energy exits the coast by late morning Friday and puts the local area in a void as far as convection goes Fri aftn. Therefore, have lowered pops all areas to slight chc (20%). Not as hot across the north Friday given the added cloud cover. In additional, we`ll see a small reduction in dew pts Friday afternoon given better mixing behind exiting S/W. This should preclude the need for a Heat Advisory (even in the SE). Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the low/mid 90s south. The next cold front sags southward into eastern VA Friday night it may touch off an isolated shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy with lows in the low/mid 70s. That next cold front washes out across the area Saturday/Sunday as a broad trough aloft takes over. Rain chances this weekend will generally be diurnally driven and pops were placed at 30-50% for the afternoon hours. Temps will not be as hot as recent days with highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front finally begins to advance on the Mid Atlantic Sunday night and is expected to cross the area during Monday...stalling near the Carolinas into mid week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of Ches Bay in Ern/Cntrl VA and NE NC Sun night through Tue night. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure settles over New England which will result in more seasonal temps in the upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively lowering heat indices into the lower 90s in the extended forecast periods. In addition, onshore winds develop by Tue morning and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus having a drying effect on the overall weather and reducing precip chances below any mention. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TAF sites are generally VFR but very strong tstms persist across the region especially in the northern portions of the CWA. Some storms/showers continue to affect SBY this evening as a weak trof and area of low pressure lingers across the region. The storms are expected to slowly diminish during the evening. A frontal boundry will linger over the region Friday and through the weekend. The resulting instability along with the heat will result in a 30 to 50% chance of mostly afternoon/evening showers and tstms through Monday. && .MARINE... Low pressure will track along a stationary boundary that is located just north of the area late this strong high pressure remains anchored off the Southeast Coast. Winds are generally 10-15kt Bay/coastal waters and 5-10kt rivers/Sound. Wind directions are variable at the moment due to localized seabreeze effects in the aftn heat but will become s-sw tonight due to the boundary to the north. Thunderstorms will become more widespread through this evening and may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. Local seabreeze boundaries may also create the potential for brief waterspout development during this time. A cold front will push through the region Fri and result in a a wind shift to w during the day and nw Fri night with speeds remaining 10-15kt. Gusts may reach up to 20kt at best early Fri morning through mid morning before diminishing to 5-10kt Fri evening as the front drops south of the area. The front lifts back to the north Sat into Sat night with the wind becoming se 10-15kt. The front then settles over the region Sun and stalls near the Carolina coast through mid week. Seas average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...BMD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.