Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 302119
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
419 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
A cold front will approach from the west early this evening,
then pushes across the Mid Atlantic region and off the coast
tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure slowly builds into
the area Thursday through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was cntrd over Lake Huron. A
cold front extended fm the low swrd thru cntrl OH, and ern KY/TN.
As of 4 pm, latest rdr showed sctd showers moving NE into NE NC
and extrm SE VA, while the leading edge of the main area of
showers in advance of the cold front, was pushing into extrm wrn
and swrn VA. These showers (isolated tstm) will move into our wrn
counties between 7 and 8 pm this evening, then slide ENE acrs the
remainder of the CWA and off the coast later this evening into
early Thu morning. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours a
possibility with any tstms. Otherwise, QPF amounts will average
arnd .25 inch or less. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE late tngt into
Thu morning...as westerly flow behind the front starts to usher
drier air into the region. Lows will range fm near 50 extrm NW to
the lower 60s SE.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry weather expected Thu thru Sat...as WNW flow dominates the
area. Sfc high pressure will gradually build toward the region fm
the WNW. Clear to partly cloudy thru the period. Highs on Thu will
be above normals with readings ranging fm the upper 50s to upper
60s. Lows Thu ngt in the mid 30s to arnd 40. Near normal/below
normal highs expected for Fri and Sat. Highs on Fri in the lower
to mid 50s, and highs on Sat in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows
Fri ngt in the 30s.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool high pressure is expected to be centered over the Mid-
Atlantic region Saturday night, before gradually sliding offshore
later Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn
stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn
stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry
conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday
evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and
then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be
below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows
Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s
along the coast, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50.
The Great Lakes system passes to the north Sunday night as the
Gulf system passes to the south. 30/12z GFS/CMC each split the
moisture north and south of the region, with the 30/12z ECMWF and
GEFS mean depicting some light rain passing through the region. A
20-30% PoP is forecast for this time period, followed by drier
conditions Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s, after morning
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure slides offshore
Monday night as low pressure approaches from the west. This system
crosses the area Tuesday, with high pressure returning Wednesday,
ahead of yet another low pressure system approaching from the
west. Highs Tuesday should again be in the low/mid 50s, and
moderating to the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. Morning lows
should be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18z...A cold front extends from low pressure over northern
Michigan south across western Ohio to the Alabama Gulf Coast. This
front will move across the Appalachians this evening and reach the
Mid Atlantic Coast overnight.
Showers ended over the area this morning. More showers and a few
thunderstorms were over West Virginia at midday. VFR with occasional
MVFR ceilings were observed at the TAF sites. Showers will accompany
the cold front late this evening and overnight. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected during
South to southwest winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots this
afternoon. Winds will continue gusty at times until frontal passage
and slowly veer behind the front. Winds may gust to around 15 to 20
knots from the west and northwest during Thursday.
OUTLOOK...High pressure builds from the west through Friday and
settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry conditions
can be expected. There will be a chance for rain Sunday night and
Monday as weak low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi
Valley and across the Southeast States.
Low pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this aftn, with a
cold front trailing back through the Ohio Valley. A s wind is
averaging 10-15kt this aftn, but this should increase by this
evening through the early overnight hours as low pressure passes n
of the area and the cold front arrives from the w. The wind should
gradually become sw and increase to 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt
possible. The cold front will move offshore late tonight with the
wind becoming w and diminishing to 10-15kt. Seas build to 4-6ft s
to 5-7ft n, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay. Current SCA flags remain
as is. Vsby has improved n of Parramore Is., so the dense fog
advisory has been allowed to expire. A w to nw wind at
10-15kt/15-20kt ocean continues behind the front Thursday into
Friday. A modest CAA surge arrives Friday night into Saturday and
this could produce low-end SCA conditions for the nrn portion of
the marine area. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, with
weak low pressure crossing the region Sunday night, and high
pressure returning Monday.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast today. Some
temperatures will approach record highs.
Richmond: 77 (1933)
Norfolk: 79 (2001)
Salisbury: 74 (1933)
Elizabeth City: 80 (2001)
Wallops Island: 74 (1991)
Record high mins challenged:
Salisbury 61 (2001) (tied as of this morning)
Elizabeth City 60 (1934)
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654-656-
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.