Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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041 FXUS61 KAKQ 192104 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A backdoor cold front pushes south across the Eastern Shore tonight as high pressure builds well north of the region through Monday. High pressure slides offshore Tuesday ahead of a weakening front, which crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Current wv imagery shows an upper trough pushing well off the Carolina coast, with a ridge amplifying through the Mississippi Valley. Weak high pressure is centered over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, with another area of high pressure N of the Great Lakes. A cold front is trailing back into the Great Lakes associated with low pressure over Ern QB. This front will push through the Ern Shore later tonight. Temperatures remain mild this afternoon ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s across most of the area. Temperatures will gradually fall through the 60s into the 50s this evening, with overnight lows eventually averaging in the low/mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure builds across New England swd through the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday as an amplified ridge builds across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will produce onshore flow in the wake of the backdoor front resulting in cooler temperatures, primarily along the coast, and still well above normal (+1.0-1.5 st dev) along and W of I-95. Forecast highs range through the 50s over the Ern Shore, to the upper 50s/low 60s along the wrn shore of the Bay through coastal SE VA/NE NC under a sunny sky. High pressure will remain over the region Monday night with low temperatures dropping into the low/mid 30s N/NE to the upper 30s/around 40 SW under a mostly clear sky. The high gradually slides offshore Tuesday as a weakening mid-level cold front approaches from the W. Mixing will be limited, only to about 950-925mb, with high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 50s NE to the low 60s SW. Mostly clear/sunny Monday night into early Tuesday with increasing mid and high clouds from W-E by aftn. The mid-level cold front (per 700mb theta-e) will slide across the area From NW-SE. This will result in a period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. Any forcing associated with a weakening and elongated shortwave trough will be very minimal if possibly non- existent, so PoPs have been capped to less than 15%. Lows will generally be in the 40s. The airmass behind this system will be milder, so highs will once again soar well above normal ranging from the mid/upper 60s for the interior Ern Shore to the upper 60s/low 70s W of the Bay, locally cooler for the immediate coastlines.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period of above normal temperature and just a chance for showers as the cold front crosses the area Friday night into Saturday morning. On Wed night into Thursday as the high slides off the coast, the flow will turn sw and should see a good warm up ahead of a weak front that tries to drop in from the north. The guidance suggest the possibility of some light showers especially across the northern part of the cwa Thursday into Thursday night. But with the area having been dry for the last several weeks will not mention any chance of rain with this week front as the ridging aloft may end up keeping the front just north of the area. Expect above normal temperatures with readings with highs in the uppers 60s to the mid 70s. The next strong sfc low will lift from the central plains into the Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday dragging a cold front across the region on Saturday. The guidance is a little suspect on how much moisture is available and with the trough and dynamics lifting NE away from the area have kept pops at chance with the front and QPF at this point looks to be pretty low still, less than 0.25". Behind the front, temperatures will return closer to normal but still above normal, but just not 20 to 25 above normal as Thursday into Saturday will be. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions across the CWA this afternoon with few clouds except some mid/high level clouds over the Eastern Shore. Those clouds should thin and/or move out of the vicinity by late afternoon and early evening. Winds are mostly light out of the NW-N less than 10 kt. Mostly SKC expected overnight. OUTLOOK...High pressure and VFR conditions over the region on Monday. Scattered showers possible Tue night. Otherwise, dry weather through Thursday. && .MARINE...
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Very quiet period of weather on the marine side for the next 5 to 7 days as long periods of high pressure with just one weak front that tries to push into the area. The period begins with high pressure, centered over Hudson`s Bay and nosing down the coast. This will set up a northerly flow. This will push a weak back door front toward the Mid-Atlantic states, but the bulk of the cold advection is well to the east of the waters so expect the winds to remain below sca levels everywhere. The axis of the high slides over the area on Monday night and lingers there through Wednesday morning when the next front approaches the area. This will keep winds light out of the north/northeast. The front looks to weaken as it arrives and may not even make it into the waters. This will finally help to kick the winds to the SW, but with the gradient week the winds will still be in the 5 to 10 kt range. The front will lift back to the north on Thursday and the sw will persist Thursday and Friday, but again the winds will remain on the light side of around 10 kt. The next front will not arrive until next Saturday. Behind the front will be the next chance for any small craft conditions.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record highs for today: * Site 2/19 Forecast highs * RIC: 78 (1961) 73 * ORF: 73 (1907) 68 * SBY: 72 (1961) 71 * ECG: 77 (1939) 69 Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal Monday and Tuesday. Another warm and well above normal period is expected Wednesday through Friday and it is possible that records highs will be challenged.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...ESS CLIMATE...AKQ

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