Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220017 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95. BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST. NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... 7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6 FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS NEAR TERM...WRS SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS/LSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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