Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151952 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm are expected through the early overnight hours. A cold front crosses the area tonight. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold front will push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers move into the region this afternoon. More widespread showers are expected this evening. - Rainfall amounts will be 0.10-0.25" on average. - Rain chances end from N to S early Saturday morning. Latest analysis shows a cold front continuing to approach the FA from the NNW, with WSW flow aloft with a cutoff low in the Desert SW. While temperatures have risen into the 70s-near 80F, dew points have been slower to recover and are still in the upper 40s-lower 50s. As a result, the precip that is entering our Piedmont counties have little to no instability to work with. Still, expect scattered showers to overspread the FA from west to east through early evening. The cold front is progged to cross the FA from 02-06z/10 PM-2 AM. Rain chances will end from NNW-SSE between 2-8 AM. Dew points will rise a few more degrees later this aftn-early this evening, which could allow for a minimal amount of sfc-based instability (100-300 J/kg) to develop. So cannot completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder (mainly after 4 PM), but no severe wx is anticipated. It is not looking like a washout with QPF late today and tonight on the order of one tenth to one quarter inch, though there may be localized higher amounts with the heavier showers. The front will be well south of the area by sunrise Saturday. CAA will not be that strong behind the front, and so while a cooler night is forecast tonight, lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to low to mid 50s central and south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... The front will be well south of the area to begin the day on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will move over the area before quickly shifting offshore by late in the day (allowing winds to turn back to the S). Still pleasant with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s inland/low-mid 60s near the coast. Strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks E from Ontario to ern Quebec Sun into Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night into Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a few light showers along of just off the SE coast Sunday evening into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Highs Sun in the upper 60s-lower 70s. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary, so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast. Breezy/cooler on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph gusts. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... A secondary, stronger shot of CAA arrives Monday night-Tuesday morning as the flow aloft becomes NW. Breezy (especially near the coast) Monday night with lows in the upper 20s-30s. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued breezy NW winds and highs in the 50-55F range. Temperatures moderate into the 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed/Thu, as the flow aloft more zonal. Still breezy out of the WNW on Wed. Then, rain chances increase as we head into Friday-Friday night as a deepening low pressure system tracks over the area from west to east. While things can change (and likely will as it is a week away)...this looks like more of a stratiform rain event as opposed to showers/tstms. Ensemble (GEFS/EPS) mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.00" across the FA at this time. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions prevail through early evening as a cold front approaches from the NNW. Scattered showers are expected to overspread the terminals between now and 21z, and will persist through the first part of the night (before ending from NNW-SSE later tonight as a cold front moves S of the terminals). The rain will be on and off and will result in short-lived VSBY restrictions at most. CIGs may drop to MVFR near the coast for a few hours around the FROPA (mainly between 02-08z), but are expected to rise to VFR late tonight (although MVFR CIGs may linger at ECG through 12z). SW winds will gust to 20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) through this afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming N overnight behind the cold front. Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions Saturday through Monday. A few passing showers are possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the region Sunday night. && .MARINE...
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As of 345 PM EDT Friday... A weakening cold front continues to approach from the NW this afternoon, and is expected to slowly sag south through the local waters between ~03Z/11pm and ~06Z/2am. SW winds will average 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt for most areas this evening, but some localized stronger winds will be possible in convection (which will be handled by SMWs or MWS products). Winds shift to the N to NNE from N to S late this evening across the far N and overnight/early Saturday elsewhere. Overall, the cold air advection is weak, but there are decent pressure rises (around 5mb/6hr) in the wake of the cold front overnight. Local wind probs (which tend to be underdone in northerly flow), have risen to ~40% for sustained 18kt wind over the Bay after midnight so have decided to raise SCAs from 05Z/1am until 11Z/7am for the Bay. Winds will likely gust to 20kt or a bit higher for 2-4 hrs at a given location during this timeframe. No headlines for the remaining zones, with seas mainly 2-3 ft (potentially building to 3-4 ft for a few hrs). Sfc high pressure will rapidly settle across the region by midday Saturday, with winds diminishing to less than 10kt by late morning, and 2-3 ft waves in the Bay diminishing to 1-2 ft (or less). With the weak pressure gradient, the flow becomes onshore at 5-10kt by later afternoon into the evening, before veering to the SSW at 10- 15kt Saturday night into Sunday as the next low pressure system moves from Ontario towards northern New England. A few gusts to ~20kt are expected in the Bay into early Sunday, but this does not look to be headline worthy at this time. Sub-SCA conditions continue Sunday, with WSW winds turning NNW and increasing late Sunday night/Monday morning. Overall, this again does not look to be enough for any headlines despite a few gusts to ~20kt. The main event will arrive late Monday into Monday night/Tuesday as strong cold advection commences, ensemble means show 850mb temperatures dropping to as cold as -8C to -10C by 12Z Tuesday. Wind probs are low for gale force gusts, but solid SCAs appear likely during this timeframe.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM LONG TERM...ERI/MAM AVIATION...ERI/MAM MARINE...LKB/TMG

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