Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151657 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1157 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will extend south into the region today and tonight. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low pressure moving northeast along the coast Wednesday afternoon and night. A second surge of arctic air pushes across the area Wednesday night and Thursday before temperatures moderate into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast largely on track at midday. 1050+mb Surface high pressure continues to push up into Atlantic Canada, with the sfc ridge overhead edging toward the Mid-Atlantc/Northeast coast. Minor changes to sky/temps for the afternoon, mainly to thicken cloud cover in SNSH and edge temps down slightly across the NE tier of the area. Flurries/SNSH have diminished in areal coverage as anticipated..though some snow showers/flurries will linger into early aftn over the MD eastern shore. Have gotten a few reports of a quick dusting in the VB/Newport News areas. Otherwise, decreasing clouds out in the piedmont. Slightly warmer but still on the chilly side. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Previous discussion... Upr lvl impulse racing NE along the Mid Atlantic coast has resulted in snow shwrs breaking out across nern NC/sern VA pre dawn. Expect this activity to work its way up the ern shore through out the day. No accumls expected although some areas may get a quick whitening of the ground in any heavier snow shwr. PVS DSCN: Latest MSAS has the arctic high centered over ern Canada and extending south along the ern seaboard. Meanwhile, a sfc trof was located across the applach mts with anthr trof offshore. Todays forecast a challenge wrt cloud coverage and temps as low level moisture in the form of a BKN-OVC SC deck btwn 2-4K FT continues to spread onshore from the offshore trof. Models also dvlp a weak low then track it NNE along the Gulf stream wall then into the Vacapes today and tonite. This feature will likely keep it cloudy along and east of the I95 corridor (OVC at the coast) with even a few fluries psbl across the ern shore. At the same time, high level clouds assctd with the trof across the mts will keep it pt sunny across the Piedmont. Highs in the low-mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Coastal wave lifts out with weak high pressure over the area tonite. Models still show enough moisture to keep skies mstly cldy east with pt cldy skies west. Cold with lows in the 20s. Anthr weak low progged to lift north just off the coast Tue with a cold front apprchg from the west. AKQ fa in btwn these features as weak high drifts toward the Carolina coast. Although weak, the return flow results in a short lived warmup across the region as temps rise into the low-mid 40s. Still a lot of uncertainty for the well advertised mid week event with no real clear model to choose from. The one thing I have done was to discount the 15/00Z NAM solution of little to no QPF with the front. The GFS continues to be quicker with less QPF assctd with the upr level systm that tracks across the Piedmont. It appears to keep the system pos tilted and ends pcpn Wed aftrn. The ECMWF/Canadian cont trying to go neg tilted for a while thus slower solns with more QPF assctd with the upr lvl systm which lasts into Wed nite along the coast. P-type not a big challenge as thermal profiles suggest mainly snow except for a rain/snow mix at times Wed ivof the Albemarle Sound. The challenge as always, conts to be snowfall amts. Trying to keep continuity, went with a GFS/ECMWF blend for now. Upshot will be for snow to overspread the Piedmont after midnite Tues nite then spread east Wed morning. Enough confidence to increase to likely pops wrn most zones, chc pops farther east. Lows in the 20s to arnd 30 SE. Likely pops Wed across the Piedmont as the upr lvl moisture tracks SE. Chc pops elsewhere for now although if the EURO/Canadian verify, higher pops would need to be extended into the aftrn. Highs 30-35. Pcpn exits off the coast Wed evening with decreasing clouds after midnite. Cold as yet anthr shot of arctic air overspreads the area so would think any snow or water from the storm freezes solid. Lows 15-20 except lwr 20s sern coastal zones. QPF of .10 or less east of the I95 corridor, .10 to .25 across the Piedmont. Expect varying SLR`s across the fa as well ranging from arnd 10:1 across the se to as much as 15:1 over the Piedmont. This translates mainly to an advsry level event with amts ranging from inch or less east of I95, 1-2 inches along the I95 corridor, 2-3 with up to 4 inches across the Piedmont (given the higher SLRs). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds into and over the region Thurs and Fri. The cntr of the high will set up south of the area or off the SE coast for thru Sun. The high will provide dry wx for Thu thru Sun, with moderating temps thru the period. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s Thu, in the 40s to near 50 Fri, in the upper 40s to mid 50s Sat, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sun. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upr level impulse racing ne along the Mid Atlantic coast will result in sct snow shwrs at ECG/ORF this morning and eventually SBY by the aftrn. MVFR CIGS as SC btwn 2-4 K FT accompany the impulse today. Guidance showing potential for some IFR ST tonite along the coast. RIC stays VFR with SCT-BKN SC throughout the day. Gusty north winds 15-20 kts at ORF/ECG diminish later today. Otw, N-NE wnds 10 kst or less. Outlook: Unsettled into midweek, as potent upper trough brings thickening and lowering clouds by late Tue, with some flight restrictions possible into Wed. Some light wintry pcpn likely Tue night and Wed as clipper and associated cold front cross the region...with clearing Wed nite. Predominate VFR then likely Thu/Fri as the trough ejects NE offshore. && .MARINE... 1048mb high pressure is centered over QB early this morning and is ridging to the SSW along the piedmont. Meanwhile, weak low pressure is situated well off the Southeast coast. This combination is resulting in a N wind of 15-20kt across the far nrn portion of the area and the lower James, and up to 20-25kt with gusts ~30kt from the lower Bay through the srn ocean zones and Currituck Sound (10-15kt for the Rappahannock/York/Upper James). Seas range from 4- 6ft N, to 6-8ft off the nrn Outer Banks. The wind is expected to gradually diminish later this morning through the aftn and then by tonight remaining northerly with speeds dropping to 8-12kt. SCAs for the Bay/Sound have been extending to 21z, the ocean to 15z Tuesday for seas remaining 4-6ft tonight into early Tuesday, and the lower James has been added to the SCA through 15z today. The wind should diminish by Tuesday as a weak surface ridge settles near the coast. A surface cold front crosses the coast Tuesday night, with strong CAA lagging behind until the upper trough arrives Wednesday night into early Thursday. The wind is expected to become N 10-20kt Wednesday, and then NW 15-25kt Wednesday night into early Thursday. SCA conditions are likely for wind and seas. High pressure settles over the area by Thursday aftn and Thursday night, and then slides off the Southeast coast Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJZ

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