Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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051 FXUS61 KAKQ 162021 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 321 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds back into the area through Friday. The high pushes offshore Saturday with a cold front approaching the region from the west late. The cold front moves across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Sunshine is plentiful across the area this afternoon thanks to subsidence/WNW flow behind the early morning cold front. With weak CAD scoured out and decent mixing, temps have risen into 60s for most locations. Secondary trough/weak cold front crosses the area this evening, as sfc high pressure continues to build in from the upper Midwest. Temps fall off quickly this evening in dry airmass, before dropping to 30-35 inland and the lower MD eastern the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool surface high pressure builds overhead, sliding offshore Friday night and Saturday. Not quite as mild Friday, with highs in the low to mid 50s beneath a decent subsidence inversion. Lows Friday night/early Sat morning in the mid 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Milder in stronger return flow on Saturday. Compressional warming out ahead of next (stronger) cold front will drive maxima well into the around 70 across SE VA/NE NC, with low to mid 60s across northern zones. Brief window for pops coincident with frontal passage Sat evening (west) into late Saturday night (east of I-95). Will carry likely PoPs (55-70%) most areas Sat night. Clouds will gradually increase through the day, remaining partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Lows Saturday night in the 40s to low 50s. Cold front pushes offshore on Sunday. After some lingering clouds east (morning shower possible over coastal areas), subsidence behind the front should result in a mostly sunny sky. Cooler again with highs in the near 60 SE coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure is expected to build into the region Monday before moving offshore during the day on Tuesday. Cold air aloft and a northwest flow will lead to a chilly day on Monday with highs struggling to climb out of the upper 40s. Lows on Monday night will dip down into the lower 30s away from the coast and upper 30s to near 40 at the coast. Temperatures warm on Tuesday due to southerly flow on the backside of the high. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A dry cold front is expected to drop into the region late Tuesday night. High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday through Thursday which will allow for continued cool but dry conditions. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period as dry high pressure building into the area. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday, before the next cold front approaches the region Saturday night. Sub- VFR ceilings and rain showers will be possible with the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday allowing for a return to VFR. Gusty winds will be possible behind the front on Sunday. && .MARINE... Current low end gales (gusts to 35 kt out 10-20nm, ending by 12Z) / high end SCA`s in place tonight as a fairly significant CAA surge noted behind the cold frontal passage. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Winds / seas subside as high pressure builds into the area Friday and Friday night before moving offshore Saturday. Another round of SCA`s likely as strong cold front crosses the waters late Saturday. South winds will likely reach SCA levels Saturday afternoon and evening before shifting to the west then northwest Sunday. Potential for gale force gusts over the northern coastal waters once again. Winds diminish Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds back into the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ635-636-638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...JDM/MAM MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.