Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180821 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 421 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening frontal boundary laying across the North Carolina Outer Banks combined with an upper level trough over the region, will result in the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into this evening. High pressure gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early this morning, a weakening frontal boundary was laying acrs the NC Outer Banks, while an upper level trough was moving into extrm wrn VA and NC. The combination of the upper level trough moving ESE over the area, and the frontal boundary sliding farther ESE of the Outer Banks, will maintain slgt chc to chc Pops for showers and tstms over much of the area into this evening. Warm and humid with highs ranging fm the mid 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper trough axis passes over the region tonight through Wed, then settles off the SE coast as a closed upper low by late Thu. A little warmer temps combined with the passage of the upper trough, could again trigger isolated to sctd showers and tstms, esply Wed aftn/evening. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values between 95 and 100 degrees. Upper high pressure will build twd the nrn Mid Atlc region during Thu. Except for isolated sea breeze induced showers or tstms Thu aftn/evening, expect hot and humid conditions with highs in the mid 90s most places. Heat index values will range between 98 and 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Bermuda High settles over the central Atlantic the rest of this week as very persistent troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard. Mid Atlantic Region remains well ensconced in a warm sector throughout the long term forecast. Expect periods of unsettled weather with showers/storms developing each aftn/evening...especially invof lee trough axis which persists through at least Sunday. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue with dewpoints in the upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Meanwhile, high temps will be in the mid-upper 90s Fri/Sat (possibly pushing 100 degrees in cntrl VA on Friday) and low-mid 90s Sunday. Lows in the 70s each night. The combination of heat and humidity will support widespread heat indices in the 100-105 range with 105-109 possible SE for Friday through Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary across the region has sparked off this evenings strong tstms, but they have stayed away from the airfields. Kept VCTS in at RIC for a few hrs based of current radar trends. Otw, chc not high enough through the night to include any pcpn. Data suggests a combination of a SC deck developing btwn 2-3K ft after 06Z along with some patchy MVFR BR across the Piedmont/lowr MD eastern shore. Another day of sct-bkn aftrn CU developing Tues with minimal chc of pcpn. OUTLOOK...High pressure builds over the SE Conus for the rest of the week with primarily dry conditions expected. && .MARINE... Trough sfc-aloft to gradually weaken through Wed...then hi pres rebuilds over the waters by the end of the week. Prevailing winds will remain SSW through the period...mainly aob 15 kt...though some increase in speeds late each day into the overnight hours. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB

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