Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 231145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
745 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
High pressure will build across the deep south today. A dry cold
front will move across the area on Monday...with cool high
pressure building across the region through the middle of the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest wx analysis features ~1023 mb sfc high pressure centered
over LA-MS-AL, ridges ENE to the Carolina coastal Plain. To the
north, strong < 980 mb low pressure continues to slide NNW through
Quebec. Dry NW flow in place aloft. Clear and cool conditions
prevail early this morning with temperatures somewhat variable due
to local wind/de-coupling but overall averaging in the upper
30s/lower 40s W of Ches Bay to the mid 40s/around 50 f near the
coast and over the eastern shore where winds are generally still
10-15 KT. As far as frost is concerned, some of low lying
sheltered areas along and W of I-95 may see patchy frost through
the next few hrs with temperatures as low as 35-37 F, but this
will not be widespread since temp-dew pt spreads on avg are about
3-5 F and winds of 3-5 KT are seen from time to time (greatest chc
for any frost resides over south central VA from FVX to AVC.
Otherwise for today, a pleasant day on tap under sunny/mostly
sunny skies with west winds to avg 10-15 mph (some aftn gusts to
20-25 mph, but not nearly as windy as Sat). By tonight, a fast
moving upper disturbance moves ESE from the upper midwest to the
NE states with an associated sfc low over southern MI as of 00Z to
southern New England by 12Z/Mon morning. This will bring a shift
in winds to the SW tonight, along with enough mixing for a milder
night. Lows to avg in the upper 40s interior south to 50-55 F
across the N and near the coast.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry conditions continue Mon/Tue as the sfc low pushes off the New
England coast, pushing a cold front through the local area on Mon.
Downslope warming will allow for the best CAA to hold off until Monday
Night, so even as winds shift to the NW, expect slightly warmer temps
on Monday compared to Sunday (highs around 70 F N to the mid 70s
S). May see a little more in the way of scattered aftn cu on Mon,
but mostly sunny overall. More likely to decouple Monday
night...but the overall atmosphere will not be cold enough for
anything more than patchy frost across the interior...but most
likely not anything widespread with temps dropping into the upper
30s across the piedmont. Sunny but cooler on Tue as 850mb temps
drop back to +4C to +6c with highs in the upper 50s NE to the
lower-mid 60s SW.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong canadian high pressure ridges down into the Mid Atlc
region Tue ngt into Wed ngt, as the center of the high moves
toward eastern Canada. While dry, the GFS/ECMWF show some
potential warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer by Wed morning,
with the potential for a fair amount of mid level cloud cover
associated with this so have bumped sky cover up to partly cloudy
for Wed. Dry but cool conditions to prevail. Lows Tue ngt in the
mid-upper 30s to lower 40s most places (potential for patchy frost
along/W of the I-95 corridor). Highs on Wed ranging fm the upper
50s N to lower 60s S, but could be even cooler if more clouds
prevail with shallow mixing under the sfc high. Lows Wed ngt in
the 40s to arnd 50 F.
Low pressure will then track thru the Great Lakes and into nrn New
England Thu thru Fri. That low will pull a cold front acrs the
area and off the coast Thu evening thru Fri morning. At this time,
have 20-30% pops for showers late Thu thru Fri morning. High
pressure will return for later Fri thru Sat. Highs will range thru
the 60s on Thu. Lows Thu ngt in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on
Fri and Sat will range fm the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Fri ngt
ranging fm the mid 40s to mid 50s.
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quiet TAF period with mainly clear skies and westerly winds to
avg 10 KT or less through mid morning, increasing to 10-15 KT with
gusts up to 20 KT from 15-21Z today (gusting to 25 KT at KSBY).
OUTLOOK...A dry cold front passing through the region on Monday
will shift winds back to the NW, but dry weather and VFR
conditions will prevail. Dry/VFR conditions to persist through
mid week with a chance of showers approaching from the west late
Thursday. No significant morning fog is expected through midweek
but there may be fog around sunrise Thursday morning.
Winds continue to diminish across the marine area this morning as
high pressure nudges in from the WSW. Have cancelled the SCA for the
rivers/Currituck Sound this morning...and have replaced the Gale
Warning for the northern coastal waters with an SCA. Will be able to
cancel the SCA for the Bay and southern coastal waters by 1pm if not
sooner. The SCA for the northern coastal waters continues til 4 pm.
Expect to have an 8-12 hr period of sub-SCA conditions on the
Bay/Sound and coastal waters before the next round of SCA conditions
develop this evening and tonight in advance of the next cold front
that crosses the waters on Monday. SW winds 15-25 KT tonight will
become W-NW 15-25 KT on Monday. Some gusts to 30 kt will be possible
over the coastal waters. Winds on the rivers generally remain 10-15
KT. Waves 2-3 ft and possibly up to 4 ft tonight. Seas 3-5 ft. With
ongoing SCAs have opted not to issue next round of SCAs for the
event tonight/Monday...and will wait until later this
morning/afternoon to do so. Winds diminish Monday afternoon then
briefly reach SCA criteria again Monday night. High pressure builds
in from the northwest Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions expected
through mid week.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-