Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191952 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next cold front is expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Latest weather analysis features ~1027mb Sfc high pressure along/just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast extending down into the mid-south region. Sct-bkn clouds associated with a weak shortwave has largely pushed offshore, leaving a sunny and pleasant afternoon on light SSW winds. Temperatures across the area averaging low to mid 70s across the local area, with some upper 60s to around 70 along the coast. Any sct clouds will quickly diminish early this evening, leaving another clear and cool night over the region. Temps not quite as chilly as last night, but still in the mid to upper 40s inland...to low 50s along the coast. Some isolated ground fog possible toward morning inland and along area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface high remains anchored along and just offshore of the local area through Saturday, as upper ridge builds over the SE CONUS. Gradually rising heights will bring a steady moderation of temperatures Fri-Sun. Highs Fri in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. Early morning lows Saturday morning in the u40s- around 50F inland...to the l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat again in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. Rain chances finally return to the forecast by Monday. A slow- moving longwave trough pushing across the plains over the weekend will carve out a deep closed low over the Mid to lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday night and Monday, as the attendant surface front pushes across the OH/TN River Valleys through Monday night. The GFS continued its trend from 00z of being the more progressive solution, with the ECMWF lagging a bit behind, as it is a bit more amplified with the upper trough. The sensible wx highlights should be comparable in this case, with rain chances expected to hold off until Monday night across the piedmont, into Tuesday along and east of I-95. Temps in the remain mild ahead of the front with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc low pressure deepening over the Southeast States Mon night will get absorbed into a larger upper level trough digging over the Midwest and as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley on Tue. Rain will be ongoing as a cold front (extending from NY to NE GA) is pushed ewd by the incoming upper trough. A much colder Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night with showers lingering into Wed. Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to fall/respond which is common. Upper trough swings through the region Wed/Wed night. Highs near normal Tue (70-75F) with widespread rain present. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed near normal to around 5 degrees below normal with readings in the mid-upper 60s. Much cooler Wed night/Thu with lows generally in the 40s (around 50F immediate coast) and highs of 60-65F. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon, with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 18z taf period. Some patchy ground fog possible once again late tonight (RIC/SBY/PHF). Otherwise, sky should remain clear to mostly clear through the period. Outlook: Sfc high pressure slides farther offshore on Sunday, with a cold front expected to push across the local area late Monday through Tuesday. At least periodic sub-VFR conditions in rain/lowering ceilings likely Tuesday/Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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Genly benign conditions over the waters for the next several days with sfc high pressure in place across the region. There will be a weak cold front pushing SE from the Great Lakes and off the NJ coast Fri morning. Not anticipating any headlines with this feature, but this will allow for a modest increase in winds to 10-15 kt Fri morning as the winds shift to the N. Still only expect waves to build to around 2 ft for the Bay/lower James, and to remain around 3 ft for the coastal waters. Strong surface high re-establishes its control over the region Fri night through Sunday with waves mainly 1 ft and seas of 2-3 ft. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come until early next week as a strong cold front approaches from the west on Monday, and slowly crosses the waters Tue or tue night. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front Mon into early Tue, and strong NNW winds behind the front Tue night or Wed. SCA headlines will likely be needed for most or all of the area during this period.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAM MARINE...LKB

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