Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 252246 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 546 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN DRIFTS OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE W TNGT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...AND UNDER A CLEAR SKY...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S BY EARLY FRI MORNG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY WX EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN RAIN LIKELY FOR SUN. SFC HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA ON FRI...THEN DRIFTS OUT TO SEA FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT. SUNNY ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS ABT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...RANGING THRU THE 50S. CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SAT...AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HI. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60. INCREASING CLOUDINESS SAT NGT...IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FM THE NW...AND MOISTURE SPREADING NE FM THE GULF CST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO/THRU THE CWA DURING SUN...AS A COUPLE AREAS OF LO PRES MOVE FM THE GULF CST STATES NE ALNG THE BOUNDARY INTO NC. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ALL AREAS FOR SUN AFTN. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON SUN RANGING THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WL CONTINUE WITH LKLY POP SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD/LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHEARING SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING, THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN LOW POPS AND QUICK DRYING ALOFT ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS BY THAT TIME, HAVE HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALLOW FOR DRIER WX FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC, COLD 1050+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. KEPT SILENT POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH ECMWF`S DEPICTION OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST FROM WHAT WOULD THEN BE A CUTOFF (OR AT LEAST CLOSED) LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPS, HIGHS AVERAGE OUT ABOVE AVG FOR THE PERIOD, BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO COOL BELOW CLIMO BY NEW YEAR`S DAY AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME PORTIONS OF NE NC. WNDS MOSTLY FROM THE WNW AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY AND BRING A CHC OF RAIN. && .MARINE...
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LATEST OBS REFLECT W-NW FLOW 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY AND ALONG THE COAST. HV DROPPED SCA WITH THIS PACKAGE, AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEAS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS FRI...WITH LGT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SSW BY LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SAT AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. SFC LOW PRES MOVING ENE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE WATERS SUN AFTN INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SEAS COULD BUILD BRIEFLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT, JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...JEF MARINE...MAM

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