Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281111 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 711 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC. CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER... OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/ LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS... ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED AS OF 11Z...BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...SCT/BKN CONDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO SCT ELSEWHERE. N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING (PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND 3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS. ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB

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