Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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366 FXUS61 KAKQ 190809 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 409 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREA OF SHRAS/TSTMS MOVING TO THE ERN SHORE...AND OFF THE CST NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS. MAY BE LINGERING ISOLD SHRAS INTO THE MID MRNG OVR THE RGN. A VERY WK BACKDOOR FNT RMNS IN PLACE NR THE CST...WHILE A CDFNT IS APPROACHING THE MTNS. THAT CDFNT FM THE W WILL BE CROSSING THE MTNS THIS MRNG...THEN CONTG TO THE E THROUGH THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. COMBO DAYTIME HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN PRE-COLD FRONT. RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT...AND THERE IS SLGT COOLING ALOFT. THE PRIMARY AREA OF PSBL MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY XPCD TO BE E OF I95...ESP IN SE VA/NE NC. WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S TO ARND 90F (EXCEPT COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CDFNT SETTLES E AND S OF THE FA (EARLY) TNGT. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50% POPS TO SE VA/NE NC THROUGH ABT 04Z/20. CLEARING OUT POST CDFNT FM NW TO SE...W/ SOME LWRG OF DEWPTS. LO TEMPS IN THE 60S. COOLER/DRY SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WNW WED...YIELDING A DRIER/MORE COMFORTABLE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOW 80S SOUTH. COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE SE CONUS STATES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET SHOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COOL AGN THU...W/ MOST HI TEMPS IN THE L70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION THU NIGHT...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS THU NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE FAR SE. OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI-SAT...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRI/SAT...PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST ON SAT AS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...1030 MB+ AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN THE AFTN AS A PIECE OF THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL AVG MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FRI MORNING. HIGHS FRI WILL BE FROM 75-80 F INLAND...TO 70-75 F NEAR THE COAST...TRENDING DOWN TO THE MID 70S SAT INLAND TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL GENLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S SAT AND SUN MORNING. FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW SUN/MON AS SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND ON SUN...AND 85-90 F BY MON. CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MON...THEN CARRY 20-30% POPS ACRS THE NORTH BY MON AFTN. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ALTHO...EXPECT MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...DUE TO AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MOVNG THRU. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE A VCSH AT OTHER TAF SITES DUE TO CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR...AND LINGERING INSTABILITY/BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE TROF CROSSING THE REGION. CONTINUED CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE A VCSH STARTING AT 16Z-18Z AT THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST TNGT INTO WED MORNG...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THRU WED...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU...AS A SHRTWV TROF MOVES ACRS THE REGION. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE WATERS...WITH GENLY A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT...THOUGH WIND DIRECTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC DUE TO SCATTERED TSTMS AND VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WIND SHIFT TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED FROM THE S/SE LATER THIS EVENING...AND S/SW OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS AVG 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS ONLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY ONLY AROUND 1 FOOT (1-2 FT MOUTH OF BAY). A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE (WITH PSBL SHRAS/TSTMS). WINDS BECOME N-NW POST- FRONTAL TUE NIGHT. NOT A REAL STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT COOL AIR SURGE TO LEAD TO LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY (AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS/SOUND). AT THIS TIME...KEEPING CONDS BELOW SCA FOR THE OCEAN. IT WILL TEND TO BE FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION (AROUND 6 HRS..FROM AROUND 3-4 AM/WED THROUGH LATE MORNING OR NOON/WED). SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN FM THE W WED NIGHT...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH ON THU. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR NOW MODELS KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...10-15 KT AT MOST ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER FRI- SUN...FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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