Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251837 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 137 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION FM THE W. EXPECT A SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WIND DIMINISHES UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MIXING/LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN LIMITED MIXING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT 850MB WILL NOT BE FULLY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL FAVOR MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OR ABOUT +1 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 30S. SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LEANING TWD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SAT NGT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LO PRES AREA START TO APPROACH FM THE W. THAT LO WILL MOVE ENE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON NGT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE 40-50% POPS ACRS THE AREA SUN THRU MON...DIMINISHING TO 30% THEN 20% FOR MON NGT AND TUE. IF THE LO PRES TRACK IS FARTHER S...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME WINTRY PCPN WITH THE WAVE LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUN...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MON...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S TUE...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SUN AND MON MORNGS...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 TUE MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WED MORNG. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME PORTIONS OF NE NC. WNDS MOSTLY FROM THE WNW AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY AND BRING A CHC OF RAIN. && .MARINE... AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 18 TO 26 KT OVER THE BAY AND ALONG THE COAST. LEAVING SCA`S INTACT FOR THE CHES BAY/LWR JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SND AND THE CSTL WTRS THRU THU AFTN. WINDS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WAS JUST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND PUSH OFFSHORE. SW TO W WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR MARGINAL SCA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DECREASING WINDS. SEAS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 FT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI PRES WILL BE RIGHT OVR THE WTRS DURING FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRES MOVING ENE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE WATERS SUN AFTN INTO MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SEAS MAY BUILD ALONG THE COAST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AJZ/TMG SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JEF/JAO MARINE...JAO

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