Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081719 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1219 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB) PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION. THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM

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