Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030013 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT. RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL LOCATIONS TO L40S SE. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/ WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S. FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW. THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS 12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE 12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%) TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC. JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND) TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK (WED-THU). FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT (IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND 30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY. HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF. OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS) THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM

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