Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241145 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT. SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT. WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E. 00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E OF I 95). CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN). A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MAINLY MVFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND LO CIGS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. CIGS MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS TDA...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT BREAK OUT. OTHER STORY IS BREEZY SLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT PSBL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS MAY LWR ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENG AHEAD OF A COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW. WEAK HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR TUE WITH VFR CONDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDS COMES ON WED AS LO PRES LIFTS NE ALONG THE CST SPREADING RAIN AND LO CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM. && .CLIMATE... UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24). RIC 76 1979 ORF 78 1983 SBY 78 1931 ECG 77 1983 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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