Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211904 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose lingers off the New England Coast. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon, providing dry and warm conditions with limited cloud cover. Scattered thunderstorms have bubbled up just to our south across east-central NC this afternoon along a weak convergence/sea breeze boundary. Given a steering flow from the NE limiting convection to our SSW, and agreement from the latest hi-res guidance, it will be hard to see more than a stray pop-up tstm across our interior NE NC counties west of the Chowan River. Have limited/slight chc pops (~20%) in that area through 00z. Otherwise, mainly clear and warm this evening, with temps falling back into the 60s to near 70 tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will remain centered to the N-NW of the local area through the weekend. Sky conditions will be no worse than partly to mostly sunny. Continued warm and dry with highs generally in the low/mid 80s, except mid/upr 70s at the beaches. Lows in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon before weakening thereafter. Meanwhile...a much weakened/remnant circulation (of Jose) slowly circulates SSE of New England. Other than periodic clouds...esp at the coast by/over the weekend-Mon due to light onshore flow...expecting dry/mainly warm. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the coast...m80s inland. Wx conditions Tue-Wed remain dependent on track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally going w/ partly cloudy w/ low PoPs (E portions). Monitor forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend. Dry/warm wx expected Thu. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure influences our weather pattern. N winds 5-10 kt will become light and variable by tonight. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend period as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Jose located SE of Cape Cod early this afternoon is forecast to slowly back to the WSW through Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located N of the Dominican Republic and is forecast to track to the NNW through Sat and then NNE through Mon/Tue about equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda. Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 3-6ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall below 5 ft at times next couple days. However...the SCA for hazardous seas will continue and will be extended to 22z Sat as the ENE swell continues. Swell arrives from Maria most likely beginning late in the weekend. SCAs for seas will likely be needed through Sun. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week. Monitor the TPC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria through the weekend. A further increase in seas is expected Mon-Wed along with an increasing N wind Tues-Wed. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal departures continue to fall today, with tidal departures generally averaging less than 1.5 ft above normal tide. This has allowed all of our sites to stay below flood stage during today`s high tide, with the exception of Lewisetta, Bishops Head and Bayford, which may go one more high tide cycle late this afternoon into this evening with minor flooding. As such, will cancel/expire all of the coastal flood advisories with the exception of the central Bay. Water levels should remain elevated all all sites throught the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what it has been, they should stay just below flood after tomorrow. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the bay, as the swell from Maria moves into the area. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today and possibly tomorrow as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AJZ/ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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