Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140020 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 820 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England through Saturday as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the Carolina coast. A cold front passes through the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Bumped PoPs up for the next few hrs per latest radar imagery, with area of rain holding together into the Peninsula and southeast VA with ENE flow of maritime air in the local area. High res models and radar trends suggest rain becomes more spotty as it continues moving farther inland towards the I-95 corridor through 00Z so will keep likely PoPs 60-70% confined to areas along/E of a line from about JGG-FKN-EDE. Some moderate rain over VA Beach likely aided by relative warmth of the waters (0.25 to 0.75" over past 2 hrs). Rain should be much lighter/genly 0.10" or less farther inland. Low level CAD wedge firmly in place...maintaining lo CIGs (ST) through tonight. For the overnight hours...will be keeping PoPs 30-50% ern portions of the FA (which gradually lowers after midnight)...while aob 20% farther inland-W of I 95. Won`t rule out patchy DZ central/wrn areas. Lows tonight from the m-u50s- around 60F WNW to the m-u60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Not confident in amount of erosion to the CAD wedge (and cloudy/damp wx) Saturday (esp into early this afternoon...and potentially most of the day ern portions) due to very limited mixing...and weak sfc trough (lingering over E and SE portions of local area). Have stayed pessimistic with cloud cover Sat w/ best possibility there`s partial clearing (sooner) (well) inland. PoPs Sat blo 15% W...20-30% toward the coast...w/ highs mainly 75-80F. Expecting drying Sat night-Sun as low level flow becomes SSW ahead of a cold front tracking to the mtns by late in the day (Sun). With clearing...Sun turns out warmer...with PoPs aob 14%. Lows Sat night in the l-m60s inland...m-u60s near the coast. Highs Sun in the l-m80s. The cold front crosses the mtns Sun night...then continues to press ESE through the local area Mon (reaching far SE VA-NE NC by late in the day). Some subtle timing differences in the models (GFS generally faster). Becoming mostly cloudy and begin to raise PoPs NW 1/2 after midnight Sun night...while remaining mainly partly cloudy SE. Mainly cloudy Mon...w/ highest PoPs Mon (40-60%) NW 1/2 of the FA Mon morning...shifting to the SE 1/2 in the afternoon (w/ slow clearing possible NW). Lows Sun night in the m50s NW to the l-m60s far SE. Highs Mon in the m-u60s...except around 70F in NE NC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front is expected to clear the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A few showers may linger in the far southeast into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being ushered into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have become accustomed too with temperatures only in the mid 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period with highs reaching the mid 70s by Friday. It should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will be close to normal for mid October. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Onshore flow continues tonight and through the first part of Saturday with high pressure wedging southward from New England. MVFR/IFR ceilings and fog/drizzle will persist with little improvement anticipated overnight and into Saturday morning. Areas of light rain/drizzle moving inland from the coastal waters will also enhance IFR coverage during the first half of the night for ORF/PHF/ECG before gradually decreasing in coverage. Conditions begin to slowly improve by Saturday afternoon with ceilings forecast to become primarily MVFR. Outlook: Areas of low fog and stratus will be possible once again Saturday night into early Sunday morning as the flow becomes southerly. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday allowing for a return to primarily VFR conditions. A cold front approaches the region late Sunday and into Monday bringing another chance for adverse aviation conditions to the region. A drier air mass builds into the region Tuesday bringing a high probability of VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.
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&& .MARINE... The combination of high pressure off the New England coast and weak low pressure just off the NC coast continued to produce NE winds 15 to 25 kt acrs most of the waters late this aftn. NE or E winds will diminish later this evening into early Sat morning, as the high pushes farther into the nrn Atlc and the low weakens even more. So, SCA winds/waves in the Ches Bay and lower James will end this evening/tngt, but SCA`s will continue for the coastal zns thru late Sat night due to seas remaining at 5 ft or higher. Improving conditions Sun with S/SW winds of 10-15 kt. The next cold front progged to move acrs the waters Sun night into Mon morning, with a rather impressive CAA surge noted behind it for Mon into Tue. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures averaging 1.5 to 2.0 feet above normal this morning. Quick update to the TWL this morning, mainly to bump up levels across the lower Maryland eastern shore. Expect mainly minor flooding this morning, but Bishops Head could just reach moderate flooding of 3.8 ft. Otw, tweeked values a bit but still expect mainly minor flooding during todays high tide cycle except at OXB where levels are expected to just come shy of minor levels. Seems the water in the bay had a hard time leaving last night as the low tides came in higher than expected. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ075- 077-078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>633-638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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