Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130556 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 156 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND OFF THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR AND 18Z NAM. HAVE DROPPED MOST OF THE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z...LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NE NC COUNTIES. AFTER 6Z...BEGIN TO SEE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...LOOKING AT 925 MB AS A GUIDE. AT THAT POINT BEGIN TO RAMP THE POPS BACK UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE OVER RUNNING SHOULD BE ENHANCED. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. PREV DISCUSSION... FRNTL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO SRN NC LATE THIS AFTN...WITH JUST A SLGT OR SML CHC OF SHOWERS OVR SRN/SE CNTIES THRU EARLY TNGT. CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS LO LVL MOISTURE/VERTICAL MOTION QUICKLY INCREASES...ESPLY OVR WRN/CNTRL CNTIES...IN ADVANCE OF A TROF OF LO PRES. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE TROF OF LO PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FM WNW TO ESE. CHC FOR THUNDER OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE HEAT AND INSTABILITY AND THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY OVR NC MOVNG INTO THIS AREA. HI TEMPS ON SAT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 70S EXTRM NW TO THE LWR 80S EXTRM SE. SLGT CHC TO SML CHC OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT INTO EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC LATE SAT NGT INTO MON MORNG...DUE TO THE FRNTL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SE U.S...AND HI PRES BLDNG FM THE OH VLY INTO THE NE U.S. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S...AS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL END UP MSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNY ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUN...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY EXTRM SRN CNTIES. HI TEMPS ON SUN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LWR 70S. ON MON...HI PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST...ALLOWING MORE CLOUDS AND LO LVL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWRD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL NUDGE BACK NWRD. HI TEMPS ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLN DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS RUN A BIT FASTER WITH FROPA (TUES MORNING) THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME INSTAB NOTED AHEAD OF BNDRY SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD WITH THUNDER CHCS OVR SRN SCTNS. MILD AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH LOWS MON NITE IN THE 60S. HIGHS TUE 75-80. FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PRD. MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR GETS PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...SO WILL INDCT A DRY PRD WED AND WED NIGHT. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60S BEACH AREAS. HIGHS WED 70-75. GIVEN HIGHS PRS TO THE NORTH AND STALLED FRNTL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH... XPCT THE PERSISTENT & INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW TO KEEP CSTL AREAS RTHR CLDY WITH PERIODIC SHWR CHCS ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH DOMINATES. HIGHS L-M70S. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60S CSTL AREAS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. OTHER THAN SBY...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEST IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO E/SE BUT CIGS SHOULD DROP ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHEN WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHERLY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER MORE THAN INDICATED AS PCPN MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER. PCPN AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SCA`S FOR THE BAY HAVE ENDED AS SURGE QUICKLY DMNSHS. WITH REPORTS OF 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES...WILL HAVE SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 2AM AS NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL HELP MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS. EXPECT THE INCREASED SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG SAT...BRINGING CONTD ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTM AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT. THAT SYSTM CROSSES THE WATERS SAT EVE. ATTN THEN TURNS TO YET ANTH CAA SURGE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORN BEHIND THIS BNDRY. DATA SUGGESTS THIS TO BE ANTH 3-6 HR MARGINAL SCA (15-20 KTS WITH SEAS INCRG TO BTWN 3-5 FT). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF EXACT TIMING GIVEN A LATE THIRD / ERLY FOURTH PRD EVENT. ANTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTM AND ASSCTD CD FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTM SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AFTR FROPA WITH YET ANTHR CAA SURGE PSBL. DATA INDICATES THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ESS/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MPR

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