Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020536 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S. GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH MON / TUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND SAT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MAS

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