Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 250129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --FYI...echoes drifting e across somerset county md appear to be
chaff as sat pictures/sfc obs do not support pcpn in that area.
Otw...expect mainly clear skies as high pres builds into the
region from the w. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).
Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stlt shows upper level low still situated on the New England coast.
The threat for showers this evening has ended over the area around
the TAF sites and dry weather is forecast for the next few days.
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 00z TAF period. Moisture associated with low pressure in
the Bahamas is expected to spread precipitation to the area during
Winds are forecast to remain below 10 knots during the next 24
hours...generally from a west or southwest direction. Little or no
clouds are expected. Dew points will likely be too low for fog
Wednesday morning and most locations will have a light breeze
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.
Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond
1. 9.13" 1889
2. 8.98" 1873
3. 8.87" 1972
4. 8.67" 1886
5. 8.59" 2003
6. 8.41" 2016 (to date)
Average 1st 90 deg day:
1st 90 deg day last year (2015):