Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270115 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 915 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area tonight into Tuesday morning. A secondary boundary will push across the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will build over the area Wednesday, then slides off the coast for Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Clouds associated with a weak trof now pushing to the coast with additional clouds to move into the area from the NW late ahead of the approaching cold front. Thus, text products to avg out partly cloudy for the rest of tonight. Cooler with lows in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad trough aloft slides fm the Ern Great Lakes/OH Valley ewrd acrs the NE U.S. and Mid Atlc region Tue into Tue evening. A relatively potent s/w aloft will track acrs the local area Tue aftn into Tue evening. Despite relatively dry airmass, this system could prove strong enough to squeeze out isolated to sctd showers or tstms in the aftn into the evening, esply E of I 95. Will carry 20-40% PoPs, with the highest PoPs over SE VA and NE NC. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sfc high pressure will finally build into/over the region Tue night thru Wed, providing dry weather and comfortable conditions under a mainly clear sky. Lows Tue night in the lower to mid 50s inland, to the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Wed ranging fm the upper 70s to mid 80s. The high will slide off the coast for Wed night and Thu, maintaining dry wx. A little more humidity returns as SSW flow starts to dominate again. Lows Wed night 60 to 65, and highs on Thu in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period will begin mainly dry Thu night/Fri as the models remain in good agreement with the pattern of high pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the mid-Atlc/SE coast. Highs Fri look to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s with dew pts increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s. An isolated late day tstm possible over the far W and for interior NE NC but have genly kept PoPs <15%. A little better chance for rain arrives Sat aftn/Sat night as somewhat deeper moisture develops along a lee trough. Will cap PoPs at 20-30% in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays W of the Mtns closer to an approaching cold front. Lows mainly 70-75 F with highs again primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will see a further increase in PoPs to ~40% by aftn/evening as the cold front gets closer to the local area. With this several days out will cap PoPs at 40% for now, but may raise PoPs for this in future updates if the timing holds. Mon will see the front slow or stall across mainly southern portions of the area with ~40% PoPs S to 20-30% elsewhere. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s and highs 85-90 F. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions across the CWA with only a few scattered clouds this evening. A weak cold front will pass through the region overnight and Tuesday. Isolated or scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially in the southeast portions of the CWA. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for much of the week, as surface high pressure builds over the region then slides off the coast. && .MARINE... Generally a quiet pattern through Wed night with a weak pressure gradient, although there will be a few brief wind shifts w/ weak frontal passages early Tue morning and with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure builds into the region from the NW. E winds will shift to the SSE and increase a bit this evening but only to 10-15 kt for a few hrs. Weak CAA on Tue will only bring N/NW winds behind the front of 10-15 kt, diminishing by aftn to 5-10 kt. Sfc high pressure returns for Wednesday aftn leading to an aftn sea breeze 10 kt or less. Waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with seas over the coastal waters 2-3 ft thru Wed. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4- 5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night, but they will be marginal events. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...MPR/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG/JEF MARINE...LKB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.