Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301745 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 145 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA. MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY. VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%). LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WEDGE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500FT MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR AROUND 03Z. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AT RIC AND SBY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE COAST HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND MARYLAND. IFR CONDTIONS IN THE MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
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&& .MARINE... NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA (MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM. SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM/JAO MARINE...JDM

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