Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171437 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1037 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR AND MORNING RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST OVER THE SE...BUT SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRAVERSING NC HAS COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS AOB 1 INCH)...SO NOT NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A BRIEF...LOCALIZED SHOWER. COOL/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT THUNDER. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK WAVES WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER NC...COMBINING WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND...WITH THE NAM BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH INTO TIDEWATER. BASED ON UNFAVORABLE PLACEMENT IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND WAVES PASSING TO THE SOUTH...TEND TO THINK THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CUT BACK SKY COVER OVER CNTRL VA SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 4 TO 6 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S. OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.