Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160528 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1228 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REMAINS ECHO FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC DOMINATES. UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON VAPOR WATER OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SLOW TO MOISTEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH REDUCTIONS TO 3-5 MILES IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE STEADYING OFF OR WARMING A DEG OR TWO THRU MORNING AS WAA INCREASES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE GETTING E OF THE MTNS DURING TUE...BUT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE/LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS MOVNG ACRS THE CWA FM LATE MORNG THRU EARLY EVENG. RAINFALL AMTS FM THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN .10 AND .25 INCH ACRS THE REGION. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S EXTRM NW TO ARND 60 EXTRM SE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG...WITH SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. WED THRU THU...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW/WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS IN FM THE NW. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. COLD AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. COOLER ON THU UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LLVL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AS 1024+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER FRIDAY WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY BY LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL BOTH TAKING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SAT NIGHT TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA/OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/15 GFS HAS ALSO GONE WITH A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE PUSHED POP INTO LIKELY RANGE WITH BOTH THE ANALOGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT PRECIP OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED, THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN TO END AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH LTL COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AND WITH UPPER FLOW SEEMINGLY FAVORING A QUICK END TO PCPN, ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX IMPACTS OVER AKQ CWA APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. OBVIOUSLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL 5-6 DAYS OFF, STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL FLUCTUATIONS. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHRA THIS AFTN/EVENING. MVFR CIG/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SE/S AND WILL REMAIN S TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS TURN TO THE W/WNW POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO AVG MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT TNGT INTO TUE MRNG AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SSE. WINDS INCREASE LATE TUE THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS BECOME W-SW TUE NGT BEHIND THE FRONT...SPEEDS AVG 10 TO 20 KT...THEN MNLY W WNDS WED...BECOMING NW BY THU. SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CRIT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...MAS/DAP MARINE...MAM

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