-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
483
FXUS61 KAKQ 020720
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and very warm conditions are expected today as high
pressure builds over the region. A backdoor cold front pushes
inland on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the
coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a
series of disturbances impact the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

Cooler early this morning with lows dropping into the 50s to
the lower 60s Areas of shallow ground fog are expected to form across
the eastern shore, Hampton Roads/NE NC. Additional more patchy
fog is possible in and south of the RIC metro/Tri-cities area
early this morning. Overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Dry and very warm weather is expected today as the upper ridge
builds back over the Eastern US. After some early morning fog,
skies become mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the
upper 80s to around 90 for inland locations (potentially lower
90s in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs
will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s as an onshore wind
develops. Mild/dry tonight with lows around 60s (mid to upper
50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure builds SSE over New England on Friday, which will
push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern
Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure
takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of
the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the
mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland
Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations
along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick
the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place,
but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and
evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances
increase across western portions of the forecast area late
Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night
range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

On Saturday, the combination of the lingering backdoor boundary
from Friday and the approaching system from the west will lead
to a cool, cloudy, and unsettled day. Not expecting a washout on
Saturday by any means, but scattered showers and potentially a
few thunderstorms (especially across the western half of the
area) will be possible. High temperatures will range from the
60s over across the NE to the mid to upper 70s further SSW. Rain
chances increase further Saturday night, with likely PoPs
overspreading the western half of the forecast area. Total QPF
Saturday-Saturday night will range from ~0.25" to 0.75" along
and west of I-95 and ~0.25" or less further east. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 60s for much of the area
(50s across the VA/MD Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

The front slowly moves/lingers across the are on Sunday leading
to continued unsettled weather. Sunday will have the best
chances for showers and storms areawide. Highs Sunday will
generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but there will be continued chances for mainly aftn/early
evening showers or tstms, due to a boundary lingering near or
just north of the forecast area. Highs will be in the mid 70s
to lower 80s Monday, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.
Outside of the slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm
(mainly north), drier conditions are anticipated for Wednesday.
Very warm, especially if we can stay rain free, as the ridge
builds over the SE US. Highs may approach 90 degrees across
inland portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

The main focus of the 06z TAF period will be the potential for
patchy/shallow fog early this morning, with the greatest
coverage across far SE VA into NE NC. IFR VSBYs remain in the
forecast for ORF and ECG, with slightly less confidence for IFR
VSBYs at PHF and SBY. Latest models have backed off on the fog
further to the NW, with RIC primarily staying VFR (cannot rule
out some patchy MVFR fog ~10-12z). Due to the shallow nature of
the moisture, combined with an early May sun angle, the fog
should rapidly burn off by an hour or two after sunrise. The
remainder of the forecast period will feature mostly clear/sunny
skies and VFR conditions. Winds become SSW 5-10 knots this
afternoon.

Outlook: Primarily dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight
through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are possible
once again along the coast early Friday as another backdoor cold
front slides through the area. There is chance for showers and
a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday
night through Sunday with the next front, with diminishing
shower/tstm chances by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected today and tonight across all
local waters

- Increased NE winds expected behind and cold front Friday evening
into Saturday. SCAs possible in the lower Ches Bay/lower James.

High pressure has temporarily built in over the region, leading to
light southerly winds of 5kt or less. Today, southerly winds
gradually increase from N to S into the evening, but stay sub-SCA at
10-15kt. A backdoor cold front gradually drops across the region
early Friday morning. Behind the front, winds turn to the NE and
increase to 15-20kt in the Bay and coastal waters and 10-15kt in the
rivers. Given the potential for gusts of 20-25kt in the lower bay,
SCAs may be needed starting Friday afternoon. Breezy onshore winds
continue through the weekend with winds becoming more southeasterly
by Sunday. Winds diminish to 5-10kt and turn SSW for the early week
period.

Latest buoy obs indicate seas around 2ft. Waves are 1ft or less. As
winds increase behind the backdoor front tomorrow, seas will
increase to 3-4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AM