Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260635 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 235 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST SFC DATA AT 00Z SHOWS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WV AND NWRN VA ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BEGIN THE TONIGHT PERIOD...BUT EXPECT THAT THIS WILL THIN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AS ANY DAY TIME CU IS DISSIPATING. AS FAR AS PRECIP THOUGHTS REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND READINGS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE MOS GUIDANCE. DID TWEAK VALUES A LITTLE IN THE SE VA REGION BASED ON LOWS LAST NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC. TO THE SOUTH, A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BACK INTO THE LOWER TN VLY. ALOFT...A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT EVENING OVER THE AREA TNGT. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST, BUT AS WITH THIS MORNING, A FEW POCKETS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT SUNRISE. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WINDS AOB 5 KT WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST)...SIMILAR TO TEMPS OF LAST EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, SHUNTING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARYINTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. RESULTANT WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING TO SHARPEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUN...AND WILL BRING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ON BREEZY LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW. SSE FLOW WILL PUSH PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 00Z MON/8PM SUN EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SUN AFTERNOON, WITH THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH PROVIDING A FOCUS AREA FOR ISO TO WIDELY SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL STILL INDICATE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK, AND WARRANT LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS (20-30%) SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND...MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY/EARLY MON WITH WEAK LIFT REMAINING IN PLACE AND SCT CONVECTION ONGOING JUST TO THE W-NW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (CLEARING LATE) AND MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY... NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MODEL THETA SURFACES INDICATE THE BEST MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE REMAINS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% (CHANCE) POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER THAN TREND RAIN CHANCES UPWARD. HIGHS MONDAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND UPTICK IN LLVL MOISTURE, BUT STILL NEAR CLIMO NORMS; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS A BIT MILDER STILL WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND LLVL MOISTURE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT, AND HAVE THUS DIMINISHED POPS NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP OVER THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF US-58). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WX IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM CHANCES THU AFTN...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS THU AFTN/NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SOLID CHC OF PCPN (30-40%) ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. HIGHS WED/THU IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LGT WINDS AND A MAINLY SKC WILL BE INDICATED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. DESPITE DEWPTS BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO...BLYR RMNS DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TERMINALS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS EXIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE RMNS NR THE WTRS THROUGH MON. S-SE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU THE PERIOD WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB/WRS MARINE...ALB/JDM

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