Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300200 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERWENIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WEAK SFC HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVRNGT...RESULTING IN SE OR S FLO AND INCREASING DEWPTS ACRS THE REGION. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...A BIT MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO ARND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY... DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME S-SW, WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL RAMP UP OF TEMPERATURES AND LLVL MOISTURE (HUMIDITY) THROUGH MIDWEEK. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MISS VLY TROUGH AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A QUICK RAMP UP IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS PUSHING TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVER TO THE EASTERN SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND TO POP DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH 30-40% ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, TAPERING BACK TO 20% OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN GETS HUNG UP JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY ARCHING SOUTH AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO LATE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDE W-NW ALOFT AND INTERMITTENTLY DROP INTO THE AREA. PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT AT BEST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN REMNANT CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY`S STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DEPICTED BY THE NAM FAMILY BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. THUS, AS WE`LL LIKELY SEE PCPN SPILLING INTO NON-DIURNAL TIME PERIOD, TRIED TO KEEP POP SIMPLE BOTH WED/THU W/ESSENTIALLY A CLIMO POP ON WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE CLIMO ON THURSDAY AS FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOWER 90S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY "COOLER"/MORE HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SEEN THRU THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL S/W`S DROPPING SE IN THE OVERALL NW FLOW. TIMING OF ANY S/W (OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) RATHER PROBLEMATIC ATTM...SO WILL CARRY THE POPS THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD VERSUS TRYING TO GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN. FRI LOOKS THE WETTEST SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50% ATTM. BASICALLY 30-40% FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT SUNDAY WHERE THE LATEST DATA IS HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY (20-30 POP). TEMPS COOLEST FRI GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN CHCS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FA PLACING REGION IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE M80S-L90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT U60S-L70S. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LGT SE TONIGHT AND S/SW WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY OCCUR NRN PORTIONS ON TUESDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY. OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING RESULTS IN THE SE WINDS INCRG A BIT (10-15 KTS)...BUT STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPRCHG TROF RESULTS IN THE WINDS INCRG INTO MINIMAL SCA RANGE TUE AFTN AND NIGHT...THUS HAVE RAISED A SCA FOR THEN. CSTL WTRS WINDS INCRG INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AS WELL...BUT THE SEAS XPCTD TO AVGG 2-4 FT SO NO HEADLINES THERE ATTM. WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE REGION. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-3 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/LSA MARINE...MPR/LSA

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