Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 232354
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016
High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region through mid
week...bringing in a drier and more seasonable air mass to the
area. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week. A cold
front drops into the area late Friday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Central sfc high pressure slides off the Delmarva tonight with the
ridge axis extending down across the VA/NC/SC coastal plain.
Sct-bkn cumulus west of Ches Bay will slowly dissipate through the
evening and clear up shortly after sunset through the early
overnight hours. Shallow patchy fog may develop around sunrise for
areas located well inland, however visibilities should not be
impacted. Lows generally in the low-mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any fog that develops around sunrise will be short-lived and is
expected to dissipate btwn 800-900 AM. Sfc high pressure becomes
well-rooted across the coastal plain with the ridge axis draped
across far SE VA into cntrl NC/SC through Wed night. The overall
forecast is dry, however, an area of moisture moving onshore
across far SE VA/NE NC will result in increasing cloudiness
shortly after sunrise Wed into the afternoon...when isolated
showers/storms may be possible during peak heating. POPs no higher
than 20%. Meanwhile, a weak sfc trough pushing across the Great
Lakes will push a cirrus deck across the mts and into the Piedmont
later in the day...spreading to roughly SBY-AKQ-EMV into Thursday
as the sfc ridge axis gets pushed ewd along the coastline by the
sfc trough now crossing srn Ontario.
Onshore/NE-E winds around 10-15 mph will persist Wed through Thu,
which will keep temps slightly cooler at the immediate coast
during the day and slightly warmer at night. Expect highs Wed in
the mid 80s inland/low 80s immediate coast. Lows Wed night in the
60s. Temps slightly warmer Thu as the ridge axis shifts ewd with
highs in the mid-upper 80s inland/low-mid 80s immediate coast.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes expected to the going long term forecast as upper
ridging persists across the eastern coast of the U.S into the SE
U.S. This will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of
the area allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across
SE VA and NE NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains
and into the piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the
coast, cannot be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid
conditions. However, given the lack of any upper support and the
very dry antecedent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this
Have opted to introduce slight chance pops for next Tuesday as the
GFS suggests that the upper ridge will displace to the south
allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle
Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the
afternoon/evening as a weakening front approaches from the north.
However, again at this time the chances look pretty low.
Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as
readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s
with lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as
compared to the early part of this week.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the Lower Eastern Shore will remain over the same
general area through the 00Z TAF period. A light onshore flow will
continue at the TAF sites.
A mainly clear sky will prevail overnight. Some patchy ground fog
will be possible over portions of the Piedmont but it does not
appear there will be any at the TAF sites. Scattered cumulus may
develop during the day Wednesday with broken clouds across the far
southeast including ECG.
OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR with no precipitation is forecast through
Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the next couple of
days with high pressure in control. Expect this high to move off
to the NE by Thu allowing increasing southerly winds across the
entire area. Do not expect any SCA conditions but certainly
15 knots not out of the question. A weak trough may pass the
waters on Sat allowing winds to turn back to the NW but they
should be less than 15 kt. Will need to watch for building swell
next week originating from the various tropical systems well out
into the Atlantic.