Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270211 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 911 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 9 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC...BASED UPON CLEARING SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE. WAS TEMPTED EARLIER TO LOWER MINS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN SLOWLY...PER GOING FORECAST. HAVE THUS LEFT MIN TEMPERATURES BASICALLY UNCHANGED. AM ALSO PLANNING TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST...AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VA. SPS FOR ICY ROADS HAS BEEN UPDATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ...AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVR MOST OF THE AKQ CWA WAS WELL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST LATE THIS AFTN. JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENG UNTIL UPR LEVEL ENERGY EXITS OFFSHR. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTL CLOUDY TNGT WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNGT ACRS THE NRN COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HI PRES WILL SLOWLY BLD IN FM THE NW FRI THRU SAT...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST ON SUN. PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 30S. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACRS EXTRM NNE COUNTIES IN THE MORNG. PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD FRI NGT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S. DRY SAT NGT UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON SUN AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE W. WINDS WILL BECOME SE OR S SUN AFTN AND EVENG IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HELPING BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. KEPT SUN DRY FOR NOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME 40-50% POPS ARE FORECAST NE...WITH 30-40% ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING MAINLY -RA AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S SW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S N...TO LOW/MID 30S S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO BE MILD AND MORE SPRING LIKE...WHILE COOL (BUT MORE SEASONAL/WITHIN -1 ST DEV) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL -RA AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WEAK CAD SETUP MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS FRI AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH N TO NE WINDS PREVAILING. WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE AT KECG ASOS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NRN BAY AND RIVERS ARE AOB 15KT SO THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A 15-20KT NNE WIND SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE LOWER BAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. HOWEVER...4-6FT WAVES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...SO THE SCA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 10-12FT...WITH 8-10FT NEARSHORE WAVES OFF VA BEACH AND THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. AT THIS TIME THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z. SCAS FOR THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY N/FRIDAY NIGHT S AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS AVERAGE AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.1 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.9 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0". - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.0". - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 12.2" MAKING CURRENT MONTH #9 ALL-TIME. * NORFOLK: 6.0" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.6". - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 11.5" MAKING CURRENT MONTH #7 ALL-TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING): 2/28 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ _______ __________________________________________ RIC -1/1934 11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF 17/1934 18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1950 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 14/1934 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY): 2/27 2/28 _______ _______ RIC 23/1934 28/1934 ORF 24/1934 30/1934 SBY 24/1934 29/1934 ECG 33/1963 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG/WRS SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/DAP MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...

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