Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271952 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATE OVER THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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HURRICANE CRISTOBAL`S CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH AT THIS HOUR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A NNE TRACK BECOMING NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EITHER WAY...CRISTOBAL WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS OVER SE VA/NE NC WILL DISSIPATE TWD SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS AND A SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN NE NC/FAR SE VA A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 8-9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW STRATUS (RATHER THAN FOG) WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS A TAD SLOWER WITH ITS SE PROGRESSION THIS AFTN...MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE ATLANTIC...AND THEREFORE HIGH CLOUDS MAY NOT SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S RATHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY... BECOMING STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME (THU/FRI). SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS RELATIVELY FLAT (ALMOST WESTERLY)...WEAK IMPULSES OF MOISTURE/ENERGY COULD PASS THROUGH IT AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS EITHER TOO PROGRESSIVE OR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF GENERATION THU/FRI AFTNS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR LIFT IN THIS WX PATTERN...OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL (NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT) AND LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. MEANWHILE...A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE REGION WILL BECOME WARM- SECTORED. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST YET DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE/LIFT PRESENT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 80S ON FRI DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HI PRES EXITS OFF NEW ENG FRI NGT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF WCNTRL ATLC THROUGH THE WKND. A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACRS THE FA FRI NGT THROUGH SAT MRNG W/ PSBL ISOLD PCPN. OTRW...BALANCE OF THE PD FM SAT THROUGH SUN WILL BE PC...WARM AND MORE HUMID. A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW LATE SUN. INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS CLOUDS AND POPS BY LATE SUN (W)...THEN ACRS THE REST OF THE FA INTO MON. LO AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT TO RMN IN PLACE INVOF SE CONUS STATES EARLY NEXT WK...RESULTING IN CONTD WARM/HUMID WX OVR THE RGN FOR EARLY SEP. HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND SAT/SUN... L/M80S AT THE CST. BY MON/TUE...HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PD FM THE U60S TO L70S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK SFC HI PRES LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. ASIDE FM SOME SCT CU AT ~2-5K FT THIS AFTN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND CRISTOBAL. N/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL BCM LGT/CALM OVRNGT. DID INCLUDE SOME IFR AT SBY WHERE IT IS MOST FAVORABLE...AND WITH A SIMILAR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD AS YESTERDAY PLUS SKC AND LGT WINDS EXPECTED...LO VSBYS ARE LIKELY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13-14Z. WEAK COLD FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA ERLY THU...WITH WINDS BCMG NWLY YET STILL AOB 10 KT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGION FRI/SAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 06-12Z BOTH FRI/SAT.
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&& .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID MS VLY CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT NE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THAT FRONT STALLS JUST S OF THE WATERS BY THU AFTN/NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E INTO NEW ENGLAND. MOST SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER INCREASE IN SEAS (HIGHEST SRN PORTION...POSSIBLY TO 7-9 FT?) WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO THU AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. AFTER CONTINUED NE WINDS TODAY...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIPS S ACROSS THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES N-NE THEN E INTO FRI (W/ A POSSIBLE SURGE IN SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW LOW END SCA...ESP NRN PORTIONS THU MORNING). A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE WINDS TO MOSTLY S OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE COAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...ALB/JDM

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