Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261901 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 301 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDS THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30 MPH. THIS WX CONTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS. INITIAL WK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER INVOF NNW LOCATIONS IN FA INTO THIS EVE. MEANWHILE...SFC CDFNT WHICH WAS ALIGNED TO OUR N FM PA-IN WILL BE CONTG TO SETTLE SLOLY S. LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/ EITHER OF THOSE FEATURES ATTM. SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AMS OVR NRN MDATLC LT THIS AFTN THEN SLOLY PROGRESS SSE THIS EVE. 0-6KM SHEAR RMNS QUITE WK ATTM...NOT XPCD TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANT AS ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTY WNDS/HAIL/HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM TSTMS IN HWO. HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE RMN ALG-N OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND WANING CONVECTION OVRNGT (AFT MDNGT) AS FNT CONTS ITS PUSH S THROUGH FA (REACHING SRN VA LT). LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M60S IN SRN VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW. THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI. MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50% THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 18Z...HI PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE CST...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FM PA WSW THRU THE OH VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FM THE N LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENG/TNGT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS ACRS THE AREA LATER TNGT THRU WED MORNG...PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR DRIFTS NWRD INTO OUR REGION WED AFTN THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVR OUR AREA. IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT INTO FRI. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WED THRU FRI...WITH AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACRS SRN VA/NE NC. && .MARINE...
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SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY/EASTERN VA RIVERS THROUGH 6 PM WITH WINDS SW 15-20 KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FT ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652) WHERE AN SCA ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3- 4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJZ/JDM

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