Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
320 FXUS61 KAKQ 260802 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A very weak cold front will approach from the northwest today as high pressure pushes farther offshore. This front will cross the area tonight, and then dissipate Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic and prevails into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Current wv imagery and model analysis indicate a mid/upper level anticyclone centered over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure is centered well offshore, with a weak cold front over the Ern Great Lakes, and a lee-side trough over the Piedmont. Temperatures early this morning average in the low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The mid-level high will build ewd across the region today, as the weak cold front continues to approach from the nw. 850mb temperatures rise to ~20C today, which should support highs in the low/mid 90s. Dewpoints averaging in the 70-72F range should result in aftn heat indices of 98-104F. There is little support for convection today with warm temperatures aloft, and anticyclonic mid- level flow. Partly to mostly sunny with sct aftn cu.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The front slides across the region tonight into Saturday and loses its distinction as it settles into the Carolinas Saturday. Any potential shower/tstm activity should stay south of the region with high pressure building overhead. There is little change in the airmass with highs inland in the low 90s. Slightly lower temperatures are expected at the coast (mid/upper 80s) with light onshore flow. Morning lows will generally be in the low 70s. High pressure continues to prevail Saturday night. Drier air to the north will result in lows in the mid/upper 60s with low 70s across se portions of the area. Some moisture may sneak under the ridge across the Ern Carolinas Sunday. Given this, a slight chc PoP has been maintained across interior ne NC in vicinity of the sea-breeze boundary. Highs Sunday range from the upper 80s to around 90 inland, with mid 80s at the coast under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Medium range forecast period characterized by continued dry/warm conditions for much of the period, courtesy of persistent mid/upper level (Subtropical) ridge that becomes anchored over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. (Low) Rain chances slowly creep back into the forecast by the middle of next week. There remains good support amongst the deterministic models, and many of their respective member ensemble means, that the upper level ridge will remain in place through midweek, even as it dampens overhead Tue/Wed. Resultant low-level flow over the local area veers from E-NE Monday, to the W-NW Tue-Wed. Model differences ramp up significantly for the latter half of next week, and center mainly around the fate of tropical disturbance Invest 99L in the Northern/Central Caribbean. There remains support for tropical energy to push across the Bahamas and eventually the Florida Straits over the weekend, potentially reaching toward the ne Gulf coast and parts of the Deep South early next week. The operational 12z/25 GFS now is a bit closer to the latest 12z/ECMWF solution, albeit still weaker. Either way, there remains no strong support for widespread pcpn over the local area thru Wed. However, given the trends of continued breakdown of the upper ridge overhead and gradually increasing PW values, continued inclusion of a slight chc to low end chc (20-30%) for iso to sct showers/tstms is reasonable and has been maintained in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will remain highest over the southern third of the area. Temperatures should average at or above normal through the period. Forecast highs Monday through Wednesday range from the mid 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Early morning lows through the period average in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure is situated off the coast early this morning with a weak cold front well to the nw of the area over the Ern Great Lakes. This will promote a light ssw wind early this morning, which should largely inhibit fog formation. Some patchy ground fog is possible at SBY, but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast. The weak front will continue to approach from the nw today and pass off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. The wind will be light today as a lee-side thermal trough develops over the area with sct aftn cu. The front will dissipate this weekend as high pressure aloft builds over the area. This high will continue to prevail through Tuesday maintaining dry and vfr conditions. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-sca conditions will continue through at least the next few days. S/SW flow continues this morning ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The front drops through the area tonight, with winds shifting to the N/NE behind the front. Expect 1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. Onshore flow below 15 kt will continue for the duration of the weekend as high pressure builds north of the region. Tropical cyclone Gaston is expected to track to a position east of Bermuda by early next week. This should result in long period swell propagating toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-5ft, again highest out near 20nm.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.