Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141736 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 136 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPAYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE THIS MORNING INCREASES CLOUDS SOME IN THE SW AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA BASED ON VISIBLE SAT TRENDS. DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE S AND SW. RADAR TREND SHOWS A FEW ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE SW. ADDED A LOW 15% POP WEST OF EMPORIA. DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS LIGHT RAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND. MOST HIGH RES MODELS DO NOT DO MUCH WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ONLY THE RUC SUGGESTS ISLOD SHOWERS AS FAR WAST AS I95 FROM RIC SOUTH. HAVE NOT GONE WITH THIS WET OF A SOLUTION AND OPTED TO KEEP ISOLD POPS IN THE SW ONLY GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED THE FA DURING SAT NOW S AND E...AND HAS STALLED INVOF SE CONUS CST. MEANWHILE...MDT SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED INVOF CENTRAL LAKES STATES. THE HI WILL PASS BY N OF THE FA TDA...W/ THE FRONT RMNG S OF THE RGN. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONT TO SPREAD OVER THE FA ON NNE WNDS. THOSE WNDS RMN GUSTY (TO 25-30 MPH) INVOF CST THROUGH THE MRNG HRS BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTN. XPCG POPS AOB 10% OVR MOST OF THE FA...NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA NR THE OVR NE NC...ESP NR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. OTRW...MSNY N...PSNY S...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THRU MON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST...WHILE HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. COOL TNGT...MNLY SKC N...PCLDY S...W/ LO TEMPS FM THE L50S N...TO M/U50S S (ARND 60F RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). WNDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE ON MON...LEADING TO SOME INCRS IN CLDNS FM THE S. WARMER/A BIT MORE HUMID MON...W/ MOST HI TEMPS IN THE U70S TO L80S. WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS (30-40%) FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MON EVE (INITIALLY WRN PORTIONS) INTO EARLY TUE MRNG (TO THE CST)...AS A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SWINGS ACRS THE FA. THAT SYS WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY TUE AFTN...W/ ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES BUILDING TWD THE AREA FM THE OH VLY. LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE AGAIN FM THE U70S TO L80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW TO START MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. DRY AND COOLER THRU WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60-65 BEACHES. HIGH WED 70-75. PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA THAT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS FLA AND IVOF GULF STREAM. LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BNDRY THU AND FRI. WHAT THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS IS FOR AN EXTENDED AND INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE RGN. TIGHTENING PRES GRAD WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CNDTNS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. TIMING OF PCPN RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL CONFINE LOW CHC POPS TO SERN COASTAL AREAS FOR NOW. PT SUNNY NORTH & WEST TO MSTLY CLDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH & EAST. COOL WITH HIGHS U60S-M70S. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60-65 CSTL AREAS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOTS OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT AT KECG...SHOULD PERIODICALLY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. BUT...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT ON THE BAY...LOWER JAMES RIVER OR CURRITUSK SOUND...AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009...AND SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET. 4 AM DISCUSSION...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRNT HAS DROPPED S OF THE AREA...WITH WEAK CAA NLY SURGE LEADING TO 15-25 KT WINDS OVR THE CSTL WTRS/BAY/LWR JAMES/SOUND THRU MID MORNG. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS 4-5 FT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE NE STATES. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL ERLY AFTN FOR THE SOUND (FOR 15-20 KT WINDS) AND CSTL WTRS S OF THE NC/VA BORDER (FOR 5 FT SEAS). THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HI PRES INTO MON WITH LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10 KT) AND 2-3 FT SEAS. WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS WINDS TURN N/NW. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT 20 NM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/JAO SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...WRS MARINE...MAS/WRS

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