Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231010 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 510 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TODAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HI PRES RMNS CENTERED INVOF FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE CST THIS AFTN. BKN-OVC MNLY HI LVL CLDNS COVERS THE FA NOW...W/ TEMPS LARGELY FM THE U20S TO L30S. PATCHY FG IS LIMITED ATTM...AND TO AREAS IN FAR SE VA/NE NC...NOT XPCD TO BE WIDESPREAD AND/OR SGFNT ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN FCST. NEXT BIG PCPN PRODUCER CONTG TO TRACK ALG THE GULF CST TDA...BEGINNING TO SPREAD SGFNT CLDNS (CIGS GRADUALLY LWRG) ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT TDA. XPCG PCPN (RA) TO ARRIVE BY LT MRNG ACRS SW PORTION OF FA...THEN CONT TO SPREAD TO THE NE THROUGH LT AFTN. A TOUCH OF IP MAY ACCOMPANY THE RA AT THE ONSET (NNW LOCATIONS). TEMP PROFILE BEGINS TO WARM SGFNT IN CRITICAL FM ABT 5-10KFT...LIMITING ANY SN PTNTL. HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M40S N TO M/U40S S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MDLS BRING SGFNT UVM/AREA OF PCPN (RA) ACRS THE FA TNGT...THOUGH DRY SLOT FM THE SW ENTERS THE FA (WELL) AFT MDNGT. ALG W/ THE RA...TEMPS FALL MNLY INTO THE M30S TO L40S IN THE EVE...THEN HOLD NRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE NGT. OUTSIDE OF PSBL BRIEF IP ACRS MNLY PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN SHORE EARLY THIS EVE...NO MIXED PTYPE CONCERNS ACRS THE FA TNGT. RA MAY BE HVY AT TIMES...ESP OVER THE SE W/ QPF AVGG 0.75 TO 1.00" NW TO 1.00-1.50" SE. MENTION OF HVY RA WILL CONT IN THE HWO. GIVEN TRACK OF SFC LO PRES ON MDLS THROUGH CSTL NE NC THEN OUT TO SEA...CONCERN ON SAT WILL BE DRY SLOT ARRIVING FM THE SW...RESULTING IN BULK OF PCPN WINDING DOWN/ENDING BEFORE ANY AIR COLD ENOUGH FM THE PCPN ENDING AS MIXED SN/RA OR ALL SN (IN THE AFTN/EVE). GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER FORCING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SAT AFTN. WHILE BNDRY LAYER WOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP COULD TURN TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER PRECIP RATES. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF RA/SN IN BY AFTN ACRS N/W 1/2 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (ARND 50 F CSTL NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING/BREEZY WITH LOWS 30-35 F SAT NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S S TO THE MID 40S N ON SUN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION ON MON...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE OVERALL TRACK IS A TOUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL RUNS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUN NIGHT/MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT LOW-MID 30S NW TO MID-UPPER 30S SE. HIGHS MON LOW-MID 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S MD EASTERN SHORE/UPPER 40S FAR SE COAST AND ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND. PRECIP-TYPE WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF COLD RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW MID-LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING NW...LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SE. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AROUND THE TIME WHEN THE PRECIP TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS COULD RESULT IN A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN THE FINER DETAILS ATTM. LOW MON NIGHT IN THE 20S. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A BROAD/OPEN TROUGH AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING EWD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND COOL. INLAND HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. DRYING NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND TEMPS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CHANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 20S (UPPER TEENS FAR NRN COUNTIES INCLUDING MD EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW-MID 40S MOST AREAS (UPPER 40S NEAR ALBEMARLE SOUND). THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THU AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GLANCING ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTN...BEFORE CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE INTO MVFR THEN IFR AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FM THE WSW...DUE TO LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF TWD THE MID ATLC CST. AT 12Z SAT...STRNG LO PRES WILL BE JUST E OF THE VA ERN SHR. IT WILL THEN QUICKLY TRACK NE TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT INTO SAT NGT. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT EVENG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AS IT PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WEAK HI PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NGT THRU SUN AFTN. && .MARINE... HI PRES OVR THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL TRACK FM THE GULF OF MEXICO NE INTO SRN GA. THE LO WILL THEN INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES NE UP THE ERN SEABOARD AND TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO SAT NGT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTR MIDNGT TNGT...PERSISTING THRU SAT NGT...AS NE THRU SE WINDS LATE TNGT...BECOME NW SAT...THEN W SAT NGT...WITH SPEEDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS INITIALLY BLD TO 5-7 FT LATE TNGT INTO SAT AFTN...THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN MORNG. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE OH VALLEY ON SUN AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS THE WTRS LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. CAA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LO WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE WTRS MON AFTN THRU TUE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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