Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222046 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 346 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build back into and over the region tonight through Friday. Low pressure will linger off the southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts Thursday night through Saturday morning. Another cold front will cross the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with high pressure building back in from the northwest Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered well off the Mid Atlc coast while sfc high pressure was centered over wrn IL. Sky was sunny or mostly sunny acrs the area with temps ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s. The center of the high will slide to just west of the CWA by daybreak Thu. NNW winds will diminish to 5 to 10 mph overnight into Thu morning. Under a clear or mostly clear sky, Lows will range fm the mid to upper 20s NW or nrn counties, to the mid 30s to near 40 extrm SE VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Going with a blend of the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF for Thu thru Sat. A couple areas of high pressure will slide into or remain over the region Thu thru Fri, while low pressure will track fm the Gulf of Mexico NE to off the SE coast. Low pressure will then linger off the SE coast then Mid Atlc coast Fri evening thru Sat morning. Mostly clear and cool Thu/Thu night and Fri. With fairly limited/shallow mixing both days and very dry conditions (dew pts in the 20s and 30s), went on the cold side of guidance both for highs Thu/Fri, and for lows Thu night/Fri morning. This yields highs Thanksgiving Day mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Thu night in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and highs on Fri in the mid to upper 50s. Next upper trough moves into/thru the Great Lakes Fri night/Sat. Still looks like bulk of moisture from low pressure off the SE and Mid Atlc coasts stays over the gulf stream, as it lifts NNE. Some increase in clouds Fri night/Sat, but will have just a 20% PoP over extrm SE VA and NE NC, dry elsewhere. Cold front then crosses the area late Sat into Sat night, with just a slgt chc of showers at most. Milder Fri night with lows ranging fm the mid 30s inland to the lower to mid 40s in the ern third of the region. Highs on Sat in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry weather and increasing temps on tap for the long term period. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west early next week as an upper-level trough pulls offshore, leading to mostly sunny/clear skies Sun and Mon with high temps averaging in the low/mid 50s. Warmer then for Tue and Wed as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW flow over the Mid Atlc...highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites thru the TAF period. Low pressure will continue to move away into the nrn Atlc this aftn into tonight, while high pressure builds in fm the west. NNW winds will gust to 15-20 kt thru this aftn, then diminish this evening as the high moves closer to the area. High pressure will maintain VFR conditions Thu thru Fri. && .MARINE... A cold front has moved offshore and will continue to head out to sea this afternoon through the evening. High pressure builds back into the area for Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all the waters except for the Rappahannock River, York River, and upper James River. North/Northwest winds will continue to increase this afternoon as cooler air works into the region behind the front. Winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots can be expected through tonight. Waves of 3 to 4 feet in the Chesepeake Bay and seas of 4 to 7 feet are expected. Winds will diminish late tonight into Thursday morning as cool high pressure builds into the area. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Thanksgiving Day and Friday with high pressure in the region. The next cold front crosses the region Saturday night bringing the potential for gusty NW winds/SCA conditions for Sunday. && && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX is back online. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJB EQUIPMENT...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.