Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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860 FXUS61 KAKQ 170040 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 740 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop through the region this evening bringing much colder weather late tonight through Saturday. Rain will prevail Saturday afternoon and evening, with some mixed precipitation possible over the northwest zones in the afternoon. High pressure builds across the region on Sunday with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected. Another round of showers will be possible on Monday with the next system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest analysis indicating a pre-frontal sfc trough along the coast, with winds having shifted to the NE over much of Hampton Roads where temperatures have dropped from the 70s to the 50s and 60s over the past 2 hrs. The actual cold front still lags off to the NW, but is now pushing into far NW portions of the CWA. Not a lot of lift or deep moisture with the front, but will continue with likely PoPs through 00Z all areas, and through 03Z over NE NC. PoPs will be diminishing from N to S during the evening, with most areas dry after 03Z/ 10pm. Turning much colder overnight and Sat morning as the front stalls across NC. Skies clear out N, remain partly/mostly cloudy S. Lows range from around 30F far N/NE to around 40 F S. Complex scenario for Sat, as moisture returns from the SW with a wave of low pressure developing along the stalled boundary. Mainly dry Sat morning, partly-mostly sunny NE, with a fairly rapid increase in mid clouds elsewhere. Highs Sat will be around 50 F NE NC coast to the upper 30s/around 40F far W/NW. With low dew pts over the N/NW 1/2 of the CWA, still anticipate a few hrs worth of sleet and possibly a little snow over the far NW. Should be all rain most places, but a little sleet will likely mix in across metro Richmond as well. Looks like a case where temperatures would be near 40F at the onset with dew pts in the 20s, then with column cooling/wet bulbing effects will see a cold rain with temps falling into the mid/upper 30s as dew pts rise to around freezing. Only place where a light snow/sleet accumulation (trace to a few tenths of an inch) looks possible will be the far NW from northern Cumberland Co on NW to northern Caroline Co. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Should be all rain Sat eve as sfc lo pres exits the coast...then heads out to sea by Sun morning. Will have high PoPs (60-80% W to 80-100% E) Sat evening...decreasing W-E after midnight. Lows around 30 F NW to the upper 30s/lower 40s SE. Sfc high pressure builds over the region Sunday for a dry/mostly sunny day. Highs 55-60F well inland (warmest south central VA), with cooler conditions, mainly in the 50-55F close to the coast with light onshore flow. Models bring next system and a return of moisture back from the SW by Mon. Mostly clear Sun evening with increasing clouds overnight. Lows mainly 35-40F though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight. A chance for rain late west of I-95. Overrunning moisture for Mon with highest PoPs NW, lowest SE. Weak CAD setup will keep it cool for much of the day over the NW, highs 50-55 F NW to the mid/upper 60s far SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will feature well above normal temps. For Mon night/Tue, dry wx expected with an upr-level ridge anchored just off the SE coast and a cold front well west of the local area. Maintained a mainly dry forecast into Wed as well (PoPs aob 20%). Favored the slower solution with the front (ECMWF) as the models tend to break down the upper ridge too quickly in the extended, esp. the GFS. So held off on higher PoPs (30-40%) with the front until Thu. Lower confidence forecast thereafter for the remainder of the week, depending on how long the front stays over the area before lifting off to the north as a warm front. As for temps, highs will be mainly in the mid/upr 70s Tue/Wed except near 70 Lwr Eastern Shore. High temps then drop to aob the 60s Thu/Fri. Lows temps in the 50s Tue night and Wed night, drop about five degrees lwr into Thu night. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A pre-frontal trough has pushed through the region as of 00z, with the primary cold front pushing into srn VA. Areas of light rain continue to pass across the region, with mainly VFR conditions, with the exception of some MVFR cigs ~1.5-2.5kft in the immediate vicinity of the front. The wind will become N 8-12kt behind the front with gusts up to 20kt closer to the coast. Light rain should end across far SE VA/NE NC by 03-04z. The wind will become NE 5-8kt overnight with cigs lifting and clearing across the N, and 5-8kft cigs continuing at ECG. The front stalls over NC Saturday morning with moisture returning and rain likely Saturday aftn/evening. There could be a brief period of light mix/sleet at KRIC Sat aftn/mainly all rain other terminals. There is a good potential for IFR cigs all sites late Saturday aftn through Saturday evening. Turning drier w/ VFR conditions Sunday. Another round of rain showers and flight restrictions/lower cigs are possible Monday. VFR/warm SSW flow to prevail Tuesday. Another cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... A cold front drops through the wtrs this evening. Previously issued headlines remain in effect for tonight, with 15-20 kt winds expected over the Bay/Sound, and seas up to 5 ft over southern coastal wtrs. Most headlines end overnight with the CAA being short-lived, but maintained the SCA over the ocean through 15Z due to some lingering 5 ft seas. Sub-SCA conditions expected Sat aftn as high pressure passes N then NE of the area. Developing low pressure will push off the Mid Atlc coast Sat night, with high pressure returning for Sun. Sub-SCA conditions then expected to continue thru at least the middle of next week. && .CLIMATE...
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No record highs were set today at RIC/ORF/SBY, but ECG did set it`s record high at 81F. Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20. Fri 2/16 * RIC: 78 (1976) * ORF: 77 (1990) * SBY: 73 (1976) * ECG: 80 (1945)
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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