Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300014 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 714 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A complex weather system over the Midwest and Northeast States will affect the region through Wednesday night. A cold front approaches from the west and crosses the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday night. High pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak short wave was producing a band of showers from south central Virginia to the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore this afternoon. These will move off to the east-northeast through the rest of the area into early this evening. QPF is under a quarter inch. Mid-upper level moisture largely departs early tonight...leaving lo levels moist. Winds diminish...and potential exists for low cigs/vsbys developing...esp inland. Otherwise...PoPs to be 20-30% w/lows from 60 to 65. A second s/w will be tracking NE in SW flow aloft...initially invof TN/OH Valleys by late tonight...then to the local area by Wed afternoon. Precipitation chances increase from the west. SPC has outlooked our area with marginal risk of severe with damaging winds being the main threat. Most of our area will considerable cloud cover so instability may be limited, but there will be moderate shear. For now, have chance for thunderstorms generally east of Interstate 95 but will need to monitor. High temperatures warm to around 70 to 75 across most of the area on Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front pushes acrs the area and off the coast Wed ngt into early Thu morning, with showers and a slgt chc for tstms. Gusty winds and heavy downpours a possibility with any tstms. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE later Wed ngt into Thu morning, as WNW flow behind the front ushers drier air into the region. Lows Wed ngt will range fm the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. Dry wx then expected Thu thru Fri, as a dry westerly flow dominates the area, as high pressure gradually builds toward the region fm the WNW. Generally mostly sunny both days, with highs on Thu in the lower to mid 60s, and cooler on Fri with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Thu ngt will range fm the mid 30s to the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool high pressure is expected to be centered from the Mississippi Valley through the Southeast Conus Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday as a split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Upper Midwest. This will result in dry conditions under a mainly clear sky, although high clouds may increase by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows Friday night and Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Saturday/Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s. GFS/ECMWF keep the srn stream system south of the region Sunday night into Monday. However, the ECMWF is more aggressive with the nrn stream wave, but the net result may be minimal with respect to sensible weather as the system will be moisture starved. High pressure returns later Monday into Monday night, with low pressure approaching from the west during the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe. At this time the 29/12z GFS is about 12hrs faster than the 29/12z ECMWF. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers have pushed offshore this evening as a weak frontal boundary resides over the Eastern Virginia Piedmont. Considerable cloud cover remains over the region, with decks lowering to MVFR in the Piedmont. Elsewhere, decks are generally 3-5k feet AGL. Gusty southerly winds have diminished, but a few gusts to around 20 knots observed along the coast. Expect low clouds/stratus to expand late this evening into late tonight, with widespread IFR conditions expected by 06-09Z. The exception will be coastal northeast North Carolina. Guidance still remains pessimistic with visibilities due to the anomalously moist air mass, but mixing and stratus will limit the overall coverage of fog. The exception will be north and west of Richmond and the Maryland Eastern Shore where winds will diminish below 5 knots. An upper level disturbance lifting over the region late tonight will bring scattered light showers to the Piedmont into central Virginia. Soundings indicate that the stratus will be slow to lift/erode mid morning Wednesday, but guidance does indicate some drier in the low levels as a cold front approaches from the west by late morning. Expect to see some breaks in the clouds Wednesday afternoon with conditions returning to VFR. Breezy again, with southerly gusts around 25 to 30 knots. The front pushes across the region Wednesday night, bringing widespread precipitation to the region. High pressure slowly builds in through the end of the work week, resulting in fair weather and VFR conditions. && .MARINE...
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Update...SCA flags for Bay (except Mouth), Sound, and Rivers have been allowed to expire. SCA for the mouth of Ches Bay has been extended through 1000 PM due to winds continuing to gust around 20kt. Overall, winds will diminish late this evening and overnight before re-strengthening during Wednesday. Previous discussion... A trough is pushing through the nrn Mid-Atlantic this aftn resulting in southerly flow of 15-25kt, with gusts up to 30 kt over the lwr Bay and ocean. The trough lifts newd through New England tonight with the wind diminishing quickly through the evening and becoming sw 10-15kt overnight. Waves in the Bay are generally 3-4ft, with seas ranging from 4-5ft s, to 5-7ft n. Waves in the Bay subside to 2-3ft tonight. However, seas likely remain 4-6ft. SCAs continue for the Bay/lwr James/Sound through 7 pm, with flags for the ocean running through Wednesday night to capture lingering seas and the next southerly surge. A cold front is expected to push through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and then push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late Wednesday night. The wind should shift to south Wednesday into Wednesday evening and increase to 15-25kt. It is likely that another round of SCAs will be necessary for the Bay/Sound/rivers, but will let the current headlines expire before re-issuing. The wind becomes westerly at 10- 15kt (minimal CAA) behind the front late Wednesday night into Thursday. A nw wind of 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean should prevail Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus and low pressure persists over Atlantic Canada. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night into Sunday. Seas subside from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with ~2ft waves in the Bay.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG/LSA NEAR TERM...ALB/LSA SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM/LSA MARINE...AJZ/BMD

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