Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020951 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 451 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS. PVS DSCN: COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER. ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING... PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS. DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S. FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC). MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU). THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES... WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 30S. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS. SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .CLIMATE... COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW: AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015: RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1934. SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049- 060>100. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638- 650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD/MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...

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