Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270159 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 959 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary over the area lifts back to the north tonight into Monday. A cold front approaches from the west Monday night and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The current surface analysis indicates a sfc boundary extending from the central piedmont to SE VA. This boundary progressed NE-SW through the late aftn/early evening hours and has now become stationary. Cool and cloudy over the Nrn/NE zones (temperatures mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s), with readings in the mid 50s roughly along the I-64 corridor, and low/mid 60s S of the boundary across far s-central VA and interior NE NC. Fog has pushed onshore, and is thickest along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore with vsby of 1/2-1sm. Most guidance indicates the front begins to retreat to the NE by 06z, and then lifts N of the area after 08z. Therefore, expect fog to retreat/dissipate as well. Sct showers across the piedmont associated with a dampening shortwave trough should dissipate between 04-06z. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 40s across the Ern Shore to the low/mid 50s elsewhere. Mainly dry and partly cloudy conditions are expected across far SE VA and NE NC. Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains invof SE CONUS coast. Genly mostly cloudy mon morning, becoming partly sunny by aftn. All zones will be back in the warm sector Mon, even the eastern shore so aside from locally cooler readings at the immediate coast, most areas will rise into the mid-upper 70s. Not much forcing for widespread precip, but will carry 20% PoPs for aftn showers/tstms inland given some instability by aftn. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging begins to break down Mon night, as the front approaches from the W and will carry chc PoPs west of I-95 after midnight/20% or less E. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front passes by late. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas, with a small area of 60% PoPs across the N. There will be some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional increases and sfc dew pts will be near 60 F, but overall not looking like widespread severe wx. Drying late Tue night with lows mainly 50-55 F, with mostly sunny conditions Wed, somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65 near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat night. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions across the region accept on the Eastern Shore where onshore flow continues to produce IFR fog and cloud ceilings. IFR conditions expected to continue at SBY until 3-4:00 in the morning then fog and ceilings expected to improve as the wind shifts from east to south...then southwest. Isolated showers possible tonight with RIC probably having the best chance to get some rain. Some MVFR ceilings may also move into RIC during the early morning hours as low clouds move into central Va from the south. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across the region through mid-week. Scattered showers becoming increasingly likely by Tue/Tue night. Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of precipitation. Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N. && .MARINE... Put up a headline for dense fog over the coastal waters from Fenwick Is to Parramore Is until 4 AM. A frontal boundary was laying acrs nrn portions of the area and off the srn Delmarva coast. Also, low pressure was over srn Lake Michigan. That low will lift NE acrs the Great Lakes tonight into Mon morning, pulling the frontal boundary N of the marine waters. As a result, NE thru SE winds 15 kt or less this evening will become S 5 to 15 kt later tonight into Mon morning. Low pressure and its associated cold front will then track fm the cntrl/srn Plains ENE and acrs the local area Tue aftn into early Wed morning. Expect SW or S winds arnd 15 kt or less Mon thru Tue in advance of this system. Then, as the low and cold front move out to sea late Tue night thru Wed morning, winds will turn to the NW then N 15 kt or less. High pressure will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with NE winds 15 kt or less...become E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-3 ft thru the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/JEF MARINE...TMG/JEF

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