Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301548 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1148 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will dissipate over the area this afternoon as Tropical Depression Number 8 lingers off the Carolina coast. This system will stay offshore and push farther out to sea Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. High pressure builds in from the north on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis depicts a broad area of surface high pressure from the eastern Great Lakes to New England. Weak cold front now generally dissipating/becoming absorbed into the flow on the northern periphery of TD #8 (that as of 15Z remains poorly organized and centered about 70 miles S of Cape Hatteras). Made some minimal changes to the forecast, mainly to go with a dry forecast even in northeast NC until 19Z, then could see some isolated/scattered convection that is currently well offshore begin to push onshore (will carry a 30% POP for portions of northeast NC and a 20% POP for interior northeast NC and VA Beach). Elsewhere, dry and mainly sunny early on with some scattered clouds developing over the next few hrs. Highs will average in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except in the mid 80s at the immediate coast due to onshore flow. For this evening/tonight, TD #8 (or possibly TS Hermine if it strengthens slightly) will continue to slowly move N and then NE and will still have little to no impact on the AKQ CWA (as we remain west of the storm track). The only impact will continue to be 30-40% chance POPS across portions of northeast Nc and far southeast VA, along with high rip current risks (see tides/coastal flooding section below). Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower-mid 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tropical Storm Hermine is progged to lift off the NC Outer Banks Wed...posing little threat to the local area. Very little change to conditions expected Wed. Will have a little greater chance that some outer rain bands clip the NC coast (will have a 40% POP there, 20% or less elsewhere). Highs will average in the u80s-l90s Wed (m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s- l70s. A stronger cold front is progged to push through the area Thu. Will have ~40% POPS most areas by late Thu am through Thu aftn. highs near 90 F S to mid 80s N. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Amplifying upper level trough swings through the region late Thu night into Friday morning, pushing a stronger frontal boundary through the region Thursday afternoon and night. Models in good agreement regarding chances for showers and storms during this period (mainly) Thursday afternoon and evening and have bumped chances to high chance over the southern half of the area. Forecast confidence still low wrt TD9 and its timing and eventual track. Still expect this system to slide along the aforementioned front, eventually getting shunted out to sea by the upper trough. However, there remains the possibility for some lingering showers over far SE VA and NE NC for Fri/Sat. Thereafter, Models now painting a bit of a cooler, drier picture over the weekend, courtesy of low to mid level ridging building across the region behind the departing system. have gone with a dry forecast for most areas Saturday, and areawide Sunday/Monday. Warmest day of the period comes on Thursday, with maxima well into the 80s to around 90 inland. Highs drop off into the lower 80s (upper 70s at the beaches) with persistent onshore winds post- frontal Fri/Sat. Highs Sunday and Monday nudge back toward climo values into early next week, low to mid 80s. Low temps running close to normal Thu night as precip/front exit the coast. Drier w/comfortable overnight temps over the weekend with early morning lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR to start off the 12Z TAF period. Mainly high clouds across the region this morning ahead of Tropical Depression 8. Some lower clouds are possible by this aftn but VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will be out of the NE and light, except at KECG where 10-15 kt winds are expected this aftn. Mainly dry weather is expected tonight aside from an outside chance of a shra at KECG/KORF. With light winds inland and high rh Wed morng, fog is possible especially at KRIC/KSBY. A somewhat higher chance for shras/tstms arrives Thu aftn/evening as a cold front pushes through the area. Dry/VFR Fri-Sat. && .MARINE... Latest obs reflect light E-NE flow across the waters this morning. A weak/diffuse frontal boundary remains draped over the far northern waters early this morning, as the center of T.D. 8 slowly lifts NW just SE of Cape Hatteras. Long period swell occurring from TD 8, which is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm later today, has bumped nearshore seas to 4-5 ft offshore our far southern waters early this morning. Wavewatch and NWPS agree wrt building seas to 5-6ft south/4-5ft north by midday through early Wed evening. SCA flags, mainly for hazardous seas, are now in place for the coastal waters through early Wed evening. An SCA also continues for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay zone w/onshore flow expected to build waves to ~4ft over the mouth of the Bay this aftn through Wednesday. Wind speeds remain sub-sca today and tonight, and as TD Eight tracks NE and away from the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and early Wed, expect that wind speeds will slacken off a bit further, dropping off to 10kt or less by Wed night. Winds then veer around to the S-SE Wed evening, W-SW Late Wed night ahead of an approaching (stronger) cold front. That front will drop across the waters Thu morning through Thu night, with seas gradually veering around from W-NW to N by early Friday morning. Seas average 2-3ft/1-2ft waves Bay. Frontal boundary shifts offshore Thu night into Fri morning w/ a brief window of SCA winds possible Thu night into Friday morning. Seas progged to build up to 4-5ft south of the VA/NC border during this period by Wavewatch Thu night and again with a subsequent secondary surge Fri night. Otherwise, seas should average 3-ft Fri/early Fri night...waves 2-3ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Have upgraded to high risk for rip currents Virginia Beach southward due to long period swell, 4-5 ft nearshore waves, and favorable swell direction. Moderate risk for rip currents exist for the northern beaches. Low tide Tuesday occurs between 12:30-1:30pm. && .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Current Data Through 8/29: * Average Temperature * RIC: 80.3/ would rank as 7th warmest (warmest is 82.9 in 1900) * ORF: 81.4/ would rank as 2nd warmest (warmest is 81.9 in 1900) * SBY: 78.7/ would rank as 5th warmest (warmest is 80.3 in 1978) Based on forecast temperatures for today and tomorrow these rankings will likely stay as is. Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this stands (and it probably will) it will rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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