Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291534 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1134 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION ON LATER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1024 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE GA/SC COAST. ALOFT, MIDDAY GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE MIDLVL ANALYSIS SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXARKANA REGION NE INTO SE ONTARIO. TO THE EAST, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP NNE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH. NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST, WITH QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECTING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, COURTESY OF A LIGHT SEABREEZE IN LOW LEVELS AND APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. DUE TO THE RATHER THIN NATURE OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, OVERALL SKY COVER FORECAST SHOULD STILL AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE DAY, YIELDING HIGH TEMPS QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. FOR TONIGHT, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE SOUTH, FIRST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC...REACHING THE EASTERN SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST MINIMA ARE A FEW DEGREES MILDER TONIGHT GIVEN THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LLVL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW 15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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