Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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022 FXUS61 KAKQ 192347 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 747 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves south across the area tonight and stalls over the Carolinas on Saturday. This front will lift back north as a warm front on Sunday. Another cold front is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows broad Bermuda high pres offshore with a prefrontal trough over central VA and a cold front across PA. The cold front drops south into the region tonight as high pres builds over the NE states. As for convection this aftn...although widespread severe wx is not expected, a few storms could be strong to severe due to high CAPE and low-level lapse rates. There is still some uncertainty however to coverage later this eveng hence keeping PoPs in the chance range. Chance PoPs everywhere later this eveng become slight chance overnight. Low temps tonight in the mid/upr 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pres builds over the NE states Sat as the cold front pushes south into the Carolinas. With the front still close to the area, maintained a 20-30% of rain Sat/Sat night, with the best chance over S/SW areas. Along with NE winds, pattern will favor below normal temps...highs Sat only in the 70s most locations with upr 60s over the Lwr Eastern Shore. Lows Sat night in the mid 50s to lwr 60s. Aforementioned front lifts north as a warm front Sun, but will go no higher than 20% PoPs attm with weak forcing aloft. Continued below normal temps with highs again only in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mon forecast based off a GFS/ECMWF solution which remains consistent in bringing a strong cold front across the region during the aftrn and evening. NAM just to drastic of a change to rely on attm. Decent jet, upr level shortwave energy and late day timing could result in an active fropa. The severity of any storms will likely depend on how much heating takes place ahead it. Heavy rainers possible given the progged PW`s. Chc pops in the morning then likely pops in the afternoon. Highs mid 70s to lwr 80s. Front pushes offshore around midnight with some drying behind it. Likely pops east with chc pops west during the evening, then slght chc pops along the coast after 06Z. Lows mid 50-mid 60s. Brief reprieve from the wet weather Tue as weak high pressure builds into the area. Dry with highs mid-upr 70s. Dry Tue evening with pops increasing across the west after 06Z ahead of the next systm. Lows upr 50s-lwr 60s. Next in a series of upr level lows tracks NE across the Gt lakes region Wed with the trailing cold progged to cross the region during the afternoon and evening. Could be a repeat of Mon with good upr level support, jet dynamics and late day timing. Chc pops in the morning with likely in the afternoon. Highs 75-80. Boundary pushes offshore Wed night with pops tapering off after midnight. Lows mid 50s-lwr 60s. Upr level low lifts NE with models showing a series of shortwaves rotating arnd it Thurs through Fri. Timing of pcpn appears to be more diurnal in nature. Thus will keep 20-30 pops each day (highest late afternoon/early evening). Highs both days in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in the 50s except arnd 60 SE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sct convection winding down this evening with the only TAF site expected to see any thunder is at SBY over the next 1-2 hrs per current radar trends, thus went with a TEMPO group there. OTW, VFR conditions expected ahead of the cold front with SSW winds aob 10 KTS. Cold front progged to drop south across the region late tonight and Saturday morning. An ubrupt change will accompany and follow this fropa. While sct pcpn is possible, confidence on just where it will rain is to low to include at any one TAF site attm. What has higher confidence is a wind shift to the N then NE along with a BKN-OVC SC deck arnd 5K FT for a few hour period after sunrise. Increasing moisture from off the ocean results in the cloud deck lowering to MVFR levels throughout the day Sat. In addition, NE winds become gusty at between 15-20 kts along the coast. The boundary returns N as a warm front late Saturday night through Sunday night bringing the potential for IFR stratus and areas of light rain. A cold front approaches from the W Monday bringing a chc of showers/tstms. High pressure returns Tuesday, followed by another chc of showers/tstms Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the W.
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&& .MARINE... Latest models still on track for a cold frontal passage late tonight and Sat. SCA`s remain in place as winds turn NE behind the fropa and become gusty at times mainly due to pressure rises of 4-6 mb/hr as high pressure builds from the eastern Great Lakes. Seas build to 4-5 ft on avg and waves in the Bay will avg 3- 4 ft. The event is fairly short in duration, with winds diminishing by Sat evening as high pressure builds a little farther south and easterly winds diminish to 10-15 kt. Seas will remain elevated into Sat night on the coast so headlines there have been issued through the 4th period/Sat nite. Seas on Sun avg 3-4 ft. Winds become SSE later Sun into Mon ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. The next front crosses the area late Mon. Not much change in airmass behind this front so expect winds to remain below SCA levels early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/MPR MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.