Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 301548
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1148 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
A frontal boundary will dissipate over the area this afternoon as
Tropical Depression Number 8 lingers off the Carolina coast. This
system will stay offshore and push farther out to sea Wednesday
into Thursday. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on
Thursday. High pressure builds in from the north on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis depicts a broad area of surface high pressure
from the eastern Great Lakes to New England. Weak cold front now
generally dissipating/becoming absorbed into the flow on the
northern periphery of TD #8 (that as of 15Z remains poorly
organized and centered about 70 miles S of Cape Hatteras). Made
some minimal changes to the forecast, mainly to go with a dry
forecast even in northeast NC until 19Z, then could see some
isolated/scattered convection that is currently well offshore
begin to push onshore (will carry a 30% POP for portions of
northeast NC and a 20% POP for interior northeast NC and VA
Beach). Elsewhere, dry and mainly sunny early on with some
scattered clouds developing over the next few hrs. Highs will
average in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except in the mid 80s at
the immediate coast due to onshore flow.
For this evening/tonight, TD #8 (or possibly TS Hermine if it
strengthens slightly) will continue to slowly move N and then NE
and will still have little to no impact on the AKQ CWA (as we
remain west of the storm track). The only impact will continue to
be 30-40% chance POPS across portions of northeast Nc and far
southeast VA, along with high rip current risks (see tides/coastal
flooding section below). Lows tonight will range from the upper
60s well inland to the lower-mid 70s at the coast.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tropical Storm Hermine is progged to lift off the NC Outer Banks
Wed...posing little threat to the local area.
Very little change to conditions expected Wed. Will have a little
greater chance that some outer rain bands clip the NC coast (will
have a 40% POP there, 20% or less elsewhere). Highs will average
in the u80s-l90s Wed (m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in
the u60s- l70s. A stronger cold front is progged to push through
the area Thu. Will have ~40% POPS most areas by late Thu am
through Thu aftn. highs near 90 F S to mid 80s N.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Amplifying upper level trough swings through the region late Thu
night into Friday morning, pushing a stronger frontal boundary
through the region Thursday afternoon and night. Models in good
agreement regarding chances for showers and storms during this
period (mainly) Thursday afternoon and evening and have bumped
chances to high chance over the southern half of the area.
Forecast confidence still low wrt TD9 and its timing and eventual
track. Still expect this system to slide along the aforementioned
front, eventually getting shunted out to sea by the upper trough.
However, there remains the possibility for some lingering showers
over far SE VA and NE NC for Fri/Sat. Thereafter, Models now
painting a bit of a cooler, drier picture over the weekend, courtesy
of low to mid level ridging building across the region behind the
departing system. have gone with a dry forecast for most
areas Saturday, and areawide Sunday/Monday.
Warmest day of the period comes on Thursday, with maxima well into
the 80s to around 90 inland. Highs drop off into the lower 80s
(upper 70s at the beaches) with persistent onshore winds post-
frontal Fri/Sat. Highs Sunday and Monday nudge back toward climo
values into early next week, low to mid 80s. Low temps running close
to normal Thu night as precip/front exit the coast. Drier
w/comfortable overnight temps over the weekend with early morning
lows in the low to mid 60s.
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR to start off the 12Z TAF period. Mainly high clouds across the
region this morning ahead of Tropical Depression 8. Some lower
clouds are possible by this aftn but VFR conditions should
prevail. Winds will be out of the NE and light, except at KECG
where 10-15 kt winds are expected this aftn. Mainly dry weather is
expected tonight aside from an outside chance of a shra at
KECG/KORF. With light winds inland and high rh Wed morng, fog is
possible especially at KRIC/KSBY. A somewhat higher chance for
shras/tstms arrives Thu aftn/evening as a cold front pushes
through the area. Dry/VFR Fri-Sat.
Latest obs reflect light E-NE flow across the waters this morning. A
weak/diffuse frontal boundary remains draped over the far northern
waters early this morning, as the center of T.D. 8 slowly lifts NW
just SE of Cape Hatteras.
Long period swell occurring from TD 8, which is expected to
strengthen to a Tropical Storm later today, has bumped nearshore
seas to 4-5 ft offshore our far southern waters early this morning.
Wavewatch and NWPS agree wrt building seas to 5-6ft south/4-5ft
north by midday through early Wed evening. SCA flags, mainly for
hazardous seas, are now in place for the coastal waters through
early Wed evening. An SCA also continues for the mouth of the
Chesapeake Bay zone w/onshore flow expected to build waves to ~4ft
over the mouth of the Bay this aftn through Wednesday.
Wind speeds remain sub-sca today and tonight, and as TD Eight tracks
NE and away from the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and early Wed,
expect that wind speeds will slacken off a bit further, dropping off
to 10kt or less by Wed night. Winds then veer around to the S-SE Wed
evening, W-SW Late Wed night ahead of an approaching (stronger) cold
front. That front will drop across the waters Thu morning through
Thu night, with seas gradually veering around from W-NW to N by
early Friday morning. Seas average 2-3ft/1-2ft waves Bay. Frontal
boundary shifts offshore Thu night into Fri morning w/ a brief
window of SCA winds possible Thu night into Friday morning. Seas
progged to build up to 4-5ft south of the VA/NC border during this
period by Wavewatch Thu night and again with a subsequent secondary
surge Fri night. Otherwise, seas should average 3-ft Fri/early Fri
Have upgraded to high risk for rip currents Virginia Beach
southward due to long period swell, 4-5 ft nearshore waves, and
favorable swell direction. Moderate risk for rip currents exist
for the northern beaches. Low tide Tuesday occurs between
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet).
Current Data Through 8/29:
* Average Temperature
* RIC: 80.3/ would rank as 7th warmest (warmest is 82.9 in 1900)
* ORF: 81.4/ would rank as 2nd warmest (warmest is 81.9 in 1900)
* SBY: 78.7/ would rank as 5th warmest (warmest is 80.3 in 1978)
Based on forecast temperatures for today and tomorrow these
rankings will likely stay as is. Richmond has only received 0.53"
of rain for the month (if this stands (and it probably will) it
will rank as the 3rd driest on record).
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-