Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270803 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 403 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PERIODICALLY STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND ALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW TONIGHT... SHUNTING THE STALLED BOUNDARY FARTHER SE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 60S (AROUND 70 AT IMMEDIATE SE COASTAL AREAS).
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S (LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES) AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S (LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES). THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD INTRODUCE SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COASTAL AREAS...BUT WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED PD RMNS UNCHANGED FM PAST COUPLE DAYS. RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES. MDL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THAT MOISTURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES. HARD TO DEVIATE FM MNLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PD. GIVEN THE PATTERN...AFT PD OF LWR HUMIDITY...OVR THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM/HUMID W/ TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE U60S TO L70F. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 5-10KFT PREVAIL ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN SE AWAY FM THE FA TODAY...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TNGT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BKN- OVC (VFR) CIGS THROUGH MID AFTN AT TAF SITES IN SE VA/NE NC BEFORE CLEARING FM THE NNW. WINDS AVG N/NE 5-10 KT INLAND TO 10-15 KT AT KORF/KECG...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT OR LESS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS THU THROUGH FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/ ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).
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&& .MARINE...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE IL/IN TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO PA ON FRI...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE AROUND 15 KT OF N/NE WIND ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AVG 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT...WAVES THIS MORNING WILL AVG 2-3 FT IN THE LOWER BAY...WITH SEAS AROUND 4 FT FOR NC COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL FROM THIS AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRI SEAS WILL AVG 3-4 FT S TO 2-3 FT N...WITH WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY AND AROUND 1 FOOT FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS FM FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...W/ WINDS FLUCTUATING FM NE-SE AND AVERAGING 10-15 KT OR LESS. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT SAT/SUN.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB

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