Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 041020 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 620 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THAT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST OFF THE CST THROUGH TDA. ISOLD-SCT SHRAS-TSTMS NOW MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ERN VA/NE NC XPCD TO CONT TO E THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS TDA. FA WILL BE SITUATED BTWN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING SSE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES INTO OH VLY. WILL CARRY MNLY 20-40% POPS TDA (PRIMARILY FOR THIS AFTN)...INCLUDING PSBL ISOLD TSTMS. HI TEMPS FM THE L-M60S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE U60S- L70S ELSW IN CNTRL/ERN VA AND L-M70S IN NE NC.. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI). CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%. WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR MOST OF TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING TONIGHT/EARLY THU. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED. && .MARINE... BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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