Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190259 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 959 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the west tonight then settles over the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night as another front moves in by Friday. Low pressure will intensify as it lifts northeast and into the Great Lakes region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A potent shortwave trough has pushed well offshore this evening, with weak high pressure building in from the NW. A ~4kft deck of sc lingers over the Delmarva this evening and this will be slow to dissipate overnight. Otherwise, expect mostly clear conditions with some thin high clouds pushing overhead from the W. Temperatures this evening range through the 40s, with some upper 30s over the piedmont where the wind has become calm. Overnight lows will remain above normal and are expected to range from the mid 30s over the piedmont, to the upper 30s/low 40s farther E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Sfc high over the region Thursday results in a dry day across the fa. Expect pt to mstly sunny skies with highs between 55-60. The high moves east Thursday evening as moisture approaches from the west after midnight. Latest suite of models keep the fa dry through 09Z with light rain developing mainly west of I95 by 12Z. Dry with increasing cloudiness through 06Z then low chc pops west of I95 late. Pcpn remains liquid with lows 35-40. Friday progged rather wet as a decent overrunning event setting up ahead of an approaching warm front. Likely pops spread across the fa throughout the day except categorical pops NWRN zones during the morning. QPF one quarter inch or less. Highs in the mid to upr 50s. Best forcing pushes offshore Friday evening as low pressure moves east and out into the VA capes with weak high pressure building into the area. Evening pops will be confined to areas east of I95 with skies remaining cloudy after midnight. Could see patchy fog/drizzle develop with lows 40-45. Latest data supports the weak high moving offshore Sat morning with moisture from the south quickly advancing NE across the Mid Atlantic region Sat afternoon. Thus, will carry chc pops mainly south of I64 after 18Z. Highs Sat in the mid 50s to lwr 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A period of warm and wet weather is expected during at least the first half of the extended period. Upper level ridge axis lifts northeast of the region Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a shortwave lifting from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a potent upper low tracks across the Southern Plains into the Gulf States Sunday. Deep layer southwesterly flow will advect anomalous precipitable water values into the region ahead of the approaching lead shortwave energy. Strong isentropic lift will result in widespread precipitation overspreading the region Saturday night into Sunday. Have retained likely POPs across the forecast area Sunday. Cannot rule out some convection across the southern local area Sunday, nearest the lifting warm frontal boundary. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 50`s north to low 60`s south. The upper low ejects northeast into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night as an associated area of low pressure lifts over the Carolinas. Likely POPs continue Sunday night thanks to anomalous moisture and impressive forcing for ascent. Lows in the mid to upper 40`s north to mid 50`s south. There remains some spatial differences with respect to the surface low placement and potential dry slotting into Monday, but will continue with high end chance to likely POPs as the upper low parks over the region. Highs in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. The upper and surface lows lift northeast of the region Tuesday, with drying conditions southwest to northeast. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 50`s. Upper/surface high pressure expected Wednesday ahead of the next approaching storm system. Highs generally in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions and generally clear skies are expected over the area for the TAF period. Have seen some lower-end VFR ceilings (~4000ft) at SBY through the late afternoon and into this evening. Added a BKN035 group at SBY to account for this, expect clouds to scatter out relatively quickly here (after 02Z). Winds will remain mainly light and variable out of the W and NW as high pressure settles into the region Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions will be Friday as the next low pressure system approaches the region. Adverse aviation conditions may prevail through much of the upcoming weekend as series of disturbances are expected to track across the area. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis places the cold front over the Southeast States with high pressure centered over central Kentucky. Obs indicate a northwest wind of 10-15 knots over the waters this afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet and waves 1-2 feet. The high slowly builds eastward tonight as low pressure deepens over the western Atlantic. Northwest winds of 10-15 knots persist. High pressure and sub-SCA conditions prevail over the waters through Thursday night. Seas 2-4 feet and waves 1-2 feet. A warm front lifts through the region Friday, but southerly winds of only 10-15 knots expected. A weak meso-low progged to form along the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night, but a weak gradient and high pressure over the western Atlantic will result in light winds again Saturday. Onshore flow ahead of a strong area of low pressure Sunday, will increase to 15-25 knots Sunday night through Monday. A period of low end gales is possible, especially across the northern coastal waters. Onshore flow will push seas to 5-6 feet late Sunday, and upwards of 7-10 feet into Monday. Sub-SCA conditions return Tuesday (although seas will likely be slow to subside) as the low lifts northeastward, away from the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...SAM

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