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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 152006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS NEW JERSEY TO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO GEORGIA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
AREA ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND 02Z.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO STABILIZATION FROM
EARLIER PRECIPITATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END NEAR
THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CONTINUES IN MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCLUDING RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY...MOST
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A TOTAL OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THE
EVENT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS AND CURRITUCK COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO INDICATED IN THE VIRGINIA PORTION
OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
AND IN AREAS OF HAMPTON ROADS DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS FALLING
INTO THE 40S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND
RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA
EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MD
EASTERN SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY AND FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TIMING LOOKS
QUITE GOOD ON THE NAM AND RUC SO WILL FOLLOW THEM CLOSELY. NOTICED
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY INDICATE IT WILL BE HARD FOR
ANY TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS BUT
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SEVER
HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WILL GIVE A TEMPO GROUP
THERE FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS. CURRENTLY WEST
OF THE FRONT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO GOING
MVFR. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS AND VSBY MVFR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND COULD BE OVER 35 KTS IN
ORF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...MAS