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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 101046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BECOMES LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY DUE TO NW
FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY. SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN AND
ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH AND LOW-MID 60S FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BUT THEN STREAM
BACK OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED SW WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND LOWS
SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN VA
FROM THIS FEATURE AND WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS (UPPER
60S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE ONSET OF PRECIP HAS BEEN
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS OF MODEL RUNS AND
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE WARM FRONT IN NRN VA LIFTS FARTHER NWD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TN
VALLEY LOW MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WED AFTN/EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO THE PIEDMONT (WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95) WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN PUSH TO THE COAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. SINCE THE AREA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/MID 60S NORTH DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MIXING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTN DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE SFC LAPSE RATES/CAPE. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO REVEAL THAT BEST
OMEGA/LIFT IS ELEVATED AT BEST. OVERALL...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
DEPENDENT...AND EVEN THEN MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS ARE ONLY LOCATED
RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PWATS INCREASE FROM 0.50-0.75 INCHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 1.25-1.40 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN
ADDITION...SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM WORDING HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ONCE W-SW WINDS BECOME NW. PRECIP MAY QUICKLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE DEPARTING LOW. OTHERWISE...CAA WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE BUT SHOULD ONLY FALL
QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE NW WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LO PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH ENE AND
OFF THE CST WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. RAIN SHOWERS END FM W TO E WED
EVENG/EARLY WED NGT...AND THE PCPN COULD END AS A MIX OF A RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR. THEN...STRNG NW
WINDS WILL USHER A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
FOR LATE WED NGT THRU THU. BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WED NGT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S. GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W. THE HI WILL BLD ACRS THE AREA THEN OUT TO SEA THU NGT THRU
FRI...MAINTAINING DRY WX. CLEAR AND COLD THU NGT WITH LOWS IN THE
LWR TO MID 20S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 50S. A DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORNG...WITH ANOTHER LO PRES SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS
BY LATE SUN. KEEPING DRY WX FCST FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. LOWS FRI
NGT IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE
MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS THROUGH TUE. SFC LO PRES TRACKS ACRS THE NRN PART OF
THE RGN WED AND OFF THE COAST WED NGT. XPC UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE PSBL ESPECIALLY AT
KRIC/KSBY. THE WEATHER IMPROVES ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY THU WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TDA THRU TUE NGT/WED MRNG. WINDS WILL
BE 15 KT OR LESS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO
3 FT. INCREASING SSW WNDS XPCD DURING WED IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES
AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA CONDITIONS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. THAT LO AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ENE AND OFF THE CST WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. STRONG LO
LVL CAA WILL THEN RESULT IN VERY STRONG NW WINDS OVR THE MARINE
AREA LATE WED NGT THRU THU. HI PROB FOR SCA CONDS XPCD W/ GALE
CONDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB/TMG