Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 051119 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 719 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT. BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NC COAST AROUND 18Z...AND THE UPPER LOW FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THE UPR LOW REACHES EASTERN NC TONIGHT...THEN LIFTS NE TO THE SE VA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE N-NW COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER BERTIE COUNTY. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR HEADING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE PAIR OF LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY SE. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHEST POPS TODAY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES...BASICALLY FROM FXV- PTB-EMV-ASJ AND POINTS SW...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP IN THESE AREAS TO FOCUS PCPN AND PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGHS POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO EAST CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE UPR LOW PIVOTS NE. WITH A 12-HR PERIOD OF FOCUSED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CWA...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING...HOWEVER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH THERE (2.5-3.5" IN 3-6 HRS)...SUGGESTING MORE OF AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD THREAT. AS SUCH...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH TODAY. THICKNESSES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...SO EXPECT WELL-BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPR LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST ON FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN PA/NJ BY 12Z SAT. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH POPS 60-80% FOR MOST AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER NIGHTFALL WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPR LOW. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS FRI 60-65. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 50S COAST. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRIER DAY WITH THE UPR LOW WEAKENING AND PUSHING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY AFTN...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE VA PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NE NC...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW). && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD IFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY BR. STILL EXPECT SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT RIC/PHF. EXPECT SHOWERS TO AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT SBY (WHICH WILL SEE SHOWERS A BIT LATER TONIGHT). OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT ANY POCKETS OF LOW END MVFR DROP BACK INTO IFR RANGE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT. SCT SHRAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT COMES ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA...AS BROAD UPPER LOW BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC THROUGH FRI. HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS IN THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND FOR TODAY WITH E-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO FILLED IN SCA HEADLINES FOR REMAINDER OF OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER ZONES WITH SEAS ALREADY AT 4 FT AT THIS HOUR AT BUOYS 96 & 100 (AND PROGGED TO BUILD TO ~5FT LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN PER NWPS AND WAVEWATCH). ALSO EXTENDED SCA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PREDOMINATE NE FLOW PERSISTENT IN THIS AREA. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT (SIG WAVE HEIGHTS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.) WINDS DROP OFF A BIT ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN, ALLOWING WINDS TO BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE FRI AFTN AND NIGHT W/WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-15KT. USED A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION BASED ON THE GEFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION, WHICH ALL HANDLE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SIMILARLY DURING THE FRI/SAT PERIOD. THIS SECOND LOW EVENTUALLY GETS KICKED OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY/SUN NGT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO DOUBT ANY ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA SAT/SUN...AVERAGING 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE WE DID SEE SOME SPOTTY NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING ANOMALIES WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD EXCEEDANCE OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THUS, AN UPGRADE TO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG COASTAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT`S CYCLE. IN THE INTERIM, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS TO REFLECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MARGINAL/NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATER THIS MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>023. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075>078. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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