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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE
THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS
UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE
MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL
FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO
THE E AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE.
OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY
W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE
PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/
TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST.

DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL
FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE
PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE
HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB
30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY.

BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE
NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW
ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS
RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN
20-30% ON WED.

HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME
LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS
(30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF
FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS
AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE
IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY
AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE
NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY
TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE
N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM