Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191109 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 709 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain just offshore through Thursday, bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area. A cold front crosses the region on Friday, bringing increased rain chances for Friday. cooler...near seasonable temperatures return to the region for the upcoming weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest wx analysis continues to feature ~1018mb sfc high pressure along and offshore of the SE coast, with broad, anomalously strong upper level ridging also centered over the SE coast, extending back to the Western Gulf Coast. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather picture over the local area. SSW flow and building heights aloft will bring the warmest day of the period today, with near record highs expected (see the Climate section below for details). Look for highs into the mid- upper 80s in most areas, with lwr 80s near the coast...once again under a mostly sunny sky. Very similar night tonight...Clear and mild with lows again in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front and associated mid-level trough traverse the TN/OH Valleys late tonight and Thu. Will maintain a dry forecast attm, with moisture associated with an offshore passing tropical low expected to not impact the fa, with showers associated with the front to the north remaining back into the Blue ridge and up toward the Mason-Dixon line. Closer to home, expect continued mild/warm conditions, albeit not quite as warm as heights drop off a bit into Thu. After early morning lows in the mid 60s, look for highs Thu in the low-mid 80s. Increasing clouds late Thursday night as the trough axis digs south, forcing the sfc front east toward the Mtns into Fri morning. Lows again in the low to mid 60s. For Friday, deterministic models have come into better agreement with the handling of the upper trough as it builds east of the Middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday night through Friday. GFS is now a bit more progressive than the OP ECMWF, with the now-slower ECMWF not pulling the associated sfc front through until Friday evening. Given the converging model solutions, have split the difference between the two and gone close to an EPS blend with frontal/PCPN timing on Friday. Expect front to cross into the western piedmont zones after sunrise Friday morning, reaching the coast by Friday aftn. Pops have been pushed into likely range over northern half of the area, tapering back to 30-40% over southern/southeastern tier of the CWA. Pre-frontal showers will be minimal, given shallow lift and best forcing/moisture displaced to the west. Thus, will keep forecast dry Thu night for all but far western tier of counties (and even slight chc there before sunrise Fri morning). As forcing for ascent quickly shunts east, pops ramp up Friday morning and afternoon, again with highest rain chances over the northern/central CWA. QPF forecast is close to WPC blend, which clusters nicely with 00z/19 GEFS mean...averaging between one-third and one-half of an inch north to a tenth or less across NE NC counties. For temps, high temps tricky for Friday. Have gone closer to cooler envelope of guidance MAV/MEX in expectation of more in the way of clouds across the west, with showers developing Fri morning from W to E. A bit more of an opportunity for some morning peeks of sun across the eastern tier, and have therefore kept highs closer (but just below) to the warmer end of guidance out east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front continues to push well off the coast Fri night as low pres tracks NE through nrn New England. Mainly slight chc PoPs will be confined to Fri eve and nrn portions of FA. Dry/cool deep layered NW Flow Sat-Sun. Gusty WNW winds Sat wane Sat night-Sun. Flo aloft becomes zonal (briefly) Mon resulting in a slight warming trend before a secondary push of dry/cool air arrives by Tue. Lows Fri night from the u40s W to m50s at the coast. Highs Sat 60- 65F. Lows Sat night from around 40F NW to near 50F at the immediate coast. Highs Sun in the l-m60s. Lows Sun night in the u40s- l50s. Highs Mon 65-70F. Low Mon night from the l40s W to l50s at the coast. Highs Tue in the l60s. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12z...Sfc high pres and upper-level ridging along the SE coasy will keep vfr conditions and a clear sky across area terminals through the TAF period. With the sfc high offshore, sfc winds will be out of the s/sw ~10 kt through sunset. Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions persist Tonight through Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front crosses the area. Dry weather returns for the weekend. && .MARINE... A SW surge has developed in response to a weakening cold front that will pass just north of the area later today. Winds from the mouth of Ches Bay nwd (including the coastal waters) have increased to 12-15kt. This surge will persist for a few hours after sunrise before wind speeds diminish. No SCA flags needed at this time for srn Ches Bay. For the rest of today through Thu evening, sfc high pressure will reside near the Mid Atlantic waters. Winds will remain sly around 10kt during this timeframe. Seas of 2-4ft will subside to 2-3ft by this evening through Thu night. Waves generally 1-2ft. Meanwhile, a strong upper trough/sfc cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic Region from the west Thu night and crosses the waters on a coastal low well off the Southeast Coast (possibly becoming a tropical cyclone) slowly tracks nwd. Although the coastal low is expected to remain well off of Cape Hatteras on Fri, the interaction of the coastal low, the passing cold front, and cold Canadian high pressure building in behind the front will significantly tighten the sfc pressure gradient beginning Fri aftn and persisting through at least Sun before winds gradually diminish. Expect solid SCA conditions (coastal waters/Bay/Sound/mouth of James River) to develop quickly early Fri evening with NW winds 20-25kt due to the tight gradient and the presence of strong cold air advection. Gusts should peak around 30kt through early Sat morning for Ches Bay; through Sat morning for all coastal waters...and then through Sun morning for nrn coastal waters (Fenwick Island to Cape Charles Light). In addition, building seas/swell from the nearby low should be expected Fri through at least Sun morning. Expect seas of 4-6ft Fri evening through Sun morning, and waves of 3-4ft Fri night through late Sat. Another sfc low pressure (similar to an Alberta Clipper) dives across the nrn waters Mon...allowing low-end SCA conditions (W-WNW 15-20kt) to develop Mon night into Tue morning in the post-frontal (yet weaker) cold air advection environment. Waves build to 3-4ft with seas building again to 3-5ft. Winds, seas, and waves finally diminish Tue night into mid week as high pressure returns to the area and cold air advection processes wane. Winds generally N-NNE aob 15kt with seas subsiding to 2-4ft/waves 1-3ft. && .CLIMATE... Very warm conditions continue today through Thursday with the possibility of challenging some records today. Current daily records are listed below: * Record Highs: * Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 87 (1938) 89 (1984) * ORF 87 (2007) 87 (1984) * SBY 84 (1938) 84 (1984) * Record high Mins: * Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 73 (2007) 68 (1916) * ORF 73 (2007) 70 (1916) * SBY 71 (2007) 68 (1916) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...BMD CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.