Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151101 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 701 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm weather continues today before a cold front arrives this evening. Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm are expected by afternoon into the early overnight hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above- normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold front will push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Another warm day across the area, with highs well into the 70. Some readings in the low 80s likely SE VA and NE NC. - Scattered showers move into the region this afternoon (mainly north). More widespread showers are expected this evening. Latest analysis reveals sfc high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic early this morning. To the W/NW, ~1005mb sfc low pressure over W NY, with the associated sfc cold front extending back into the lower OH/TN River Valleys. WV satellite imagery showing an ongoing area of (weakening) convection as storms cross the central and southern Appalachians and the mid- south. Debris cloudiness associated with the upstream convection has allowed some thin cirrus to push into the region this morning. Those clouds and breezy SW flow have kept temperatures mild this morning, with 07z readings in the mid 50s to low 60s over much of the region. The cold front will approach the state from the west later today. Dewpoints will rise into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon and this evening, with PWAT values increasing to ~1-1.25". CAMs continue to trend toward showing some scattered showers this afternoon, with more widespread anafrontal (post- frontal) showers pushing across the area this evening. This translates to delaying onset of PoPs, keeping much of the area dry through early to mid afternoon. Expect rain chances do increase around midday closer to the front across northern VA, with the best chances pushing over the rest of the area late this aftn (N) and this evening (central and south). There will be some modest instability present, so a few rumbles of thunder will be possible in these showers, but no widespread severe storm issues are anticipated. Not looking like a wash out in any sense of the word with QPF late today and tonight on the order of one tenth to one quarter inch, though there may be localized higher amounts with localized convective features. The front drops across the area after 00z, and will be well south of the area by sunrise Saturday. Cold air advection will take some time to filter into the area, and so while aP cooler night is forecast tonight, lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to low to mid 50s central and south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... The front will be well south of the area to begin the day on Saturday. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will allow for drying conditions to quickly return. Temperatures will still be above normal, but not quite as warm as we`ve been seeing over the past few days. Expect highs this weekend to be in the upper 60s to around 70 inland with low to mid 60s along the coast. Strong low pressure crosses the Canadian Prairies into Ontario/Quebec Sun into Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night into Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a few light showers along of just off the SE coast Sunday evening into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary, so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Friday... An area of low pressure moves into Quebec Monday morning, with a weak shortwave forming along the broad troughiness well back to the west/southwest. There may be a shower or two across the southeast Monday afternoon as this shortwave slides through. Additionally, cooler air will arrive behind the front, so high temperatures on Monday will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the period as northwest flow increases on the backside of the trough. Surface high pressure will also build into the region. Winds will become breezy on Tuesday, with highs only getting into the upper 40s across the north/Eastern Shore and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Overnight temps Monday night and Tuesday night will be chilly, dipping down into the upper 20s across the west Monday night, and around freezing for everyone else. Temperatures moderate for the midweek period, as additional northern stream shortwave energy pinwheels south across the northern mid-Atlantic. In its wake, shortwave ridging rebuilds from the SSW, allowing temperatures to quickly recover into the 60s for the latter half of next week. Early morning lows bounce back into the 30s Wed, and into the 40s Thu and Fri mornings. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 700 AM EDT Friday... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 12z/15 TAF period. SCT-BKN high clouds from the convection over the northern mid-Atlantic into the eastern TN Vly will spread SE later this morning into the afternoon, becoming more widespread into tonight with BKN/OVC conditions (mainly VFR CIGs). Have allowed for some LLWS at northern terminals as a SW LLJ develops over the area. A weakening cold front will approach the region from the NW later today into tonight. Rain showers become more widespread along and especially behind the frontal passage this evening, tapering off into Sat morning. Widespread MVFR and short-lived IFR CIGs are possible during this same period Fri night along and just behind the frontal passage. SW winds 5-10 kt early this morning increases to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) by midday through this afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming N overnight behind the cold front. Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions Saturday through Monday. A few passing showers are possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the region Sunday night.
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&& .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the SE coast. Winds were mainly SW 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft. High pressure will slide farther off the SE coast this morning. Otherwise, a cold front will approach from the west today. SW winds will be mainly 10-15 kt with gusts to near 20 kt this morning through this aftn in advance of the front. Winds then become W then NW then N this evening into Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few kt below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 2-9 AM Sat on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Sat aftn through the rest of the weekend. Widespread SCAs are likely Mon night into Tue aftn in the wake of a much stronger cold FROPA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAM/JKP AVIATION...MAM/RMM MARINE...ERI/TMG

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