Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201922 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 322 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YR...BUT WX PAST FEW DAYS ANYTHING LIKE THAT. CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ ISOLD/SCT SHRAS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL FLO LARGELY HAS E COMPONENT. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E AND OFFSHORE WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. OTRW...CONTD VRB CLDS/MCLDY. POPS WILL MNLY STAY BLO 30% (OUTSIDE OF PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC). MODERATELY HUMID OVRNGT...RMNG MCLDY W/ POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT. LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE PD...W/ ONLY MARGINAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY. BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PSNY CONDS AND TEMPS RESPONDING BACK TO OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN 20-30% ON WED. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE...U80S TO L90S WED. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW. && .MARINE... INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST INTO EARLY TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH OFF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. SEA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DECREASES. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 7 PM. OTW...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SE TO THE SW TUES NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW LATE THURS/THURS NGT...VEERING WINDS TO THE N-NE ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...WRS MARINE...JDM

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