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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL INTENSIFY WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
AND THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A RATHER NEBULOUS PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE AMPLIFYING TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR N...WHERE A MID-CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH THEN LIFTS N AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES SW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SOME FOG OVER SE
PORTIONS THIS EVENING...AND IT APPEARS PATCHY FOG SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND N
ACROSS EASTERN VA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXPECT MINS
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. THE NW PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE LOW 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MID-CLOUD DECK LIFTS N. POPS WERE
REMOVED FOR THE FAR SE ZONES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

ON MON...MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 18Z...BUT BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AN LIFT SHOULD BE
SITUATED OFF THE COAST SO WILL ONLY CARRY ABOUT A 40% POP OVER TH
FAR SE (FOR LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS < .10"). MOST OF THE CWA WILL ONLY
SEE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS GENLY IN
THE MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE WHILE DOING SO. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD MON
NIGHT/TUE/WED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE AREA AS A
TROUGH IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TUE...LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S TUE NIGHT...AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/POSSIBLY
MID 60S ON WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW MOISTURE THAT MAY BE TOUGH TO
BREAK ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PCPN RATHER THAN TEMPERATURES AS THE
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...THE AIR MASS WILL BE SHALLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO FALL. EVENTUAL READINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THOSE
WHICH WERE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.

THE MODELS HAD THE FRONT STALLING TEMPORARILY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
YESTERDAY BUT CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE THIS OCCURRING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE EURO LINES UP WELL
WITH HPC AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO IT WITH THE FORECAST. THIS SET UP
WOULD INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE AND SLOW MOVING PCPN PATTERN WITH AREAS
OF LIKELY POPS MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST
PORTIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT PTYPE ISSUES ARE
INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S WITH UPR 50S PSBL ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR 70 ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON THE
ULTIMATE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE
PSBL BUT DID NOT GET FANCY THIS FAR OUT. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 IN OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPR 30S NORTH TO LWR 50S NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. HIGHS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS TONITE THEN TRACK OVER THE VA CAPES MONDAY. LIGHT
RAIN ALREADY BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS WITH DATA SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING NNE THRU FORECAST PERIOD. DATA SUPPORTS
ANY PCPN HUGGING THE COAST MONDAY WITH PCPN GETTING INTO ECG BY 15Z.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NW PCPN ACTUALLY GETS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
MAY SEE SOME VRY LIGHT RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AT ORF MON MORN...BUT ONLY
TAF SITE CONFIDENT TO MENTION RAIN WILL BE ECG. OTW...BKN HIGH / MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TONITE.

HRRR AND NOW 02Z SFC OBS SHOWING SOME FOG ACROSS SERN TAF SITES SO
AMENDED ECG/ORF/PHF FOR THIS MVFR FOG NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT SURE ABOUT
IFR FOG...HOWEVER ECG HAD SEVERAL MINUTES WITH VSBY UNDER 1SM.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF PCPN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS/WAVES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT W-SW WINDS BECOME NW LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NE EARLY MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN NE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD LATE WED/THU...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM