Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S. ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS. FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).
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&& .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING (BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...DAP MARINE...MAM

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