Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141043 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 643 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure systems will track along a stationary located near the Virginia North Carolina border through Tuesday night. High pressure finally builds north of the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A stationary front remains over the Carolinas early today. A weak system aloft from the TN Valley approaches this morning...then crosses the area by later today. Light onshore flow will result in lowering CIGs...and the system aloft crossing the area will bring SCT SHRAs-possible ISOLD tstms...highest PoPs (30-50%) across far srn VA-NE NC...aob 20% elsewhere. Highs 80-85F...u70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VRB clouds-mostly cloudy tonight w/ PoPs lowering to aob 25%. Lows in the u60s-m70s. For Tue/Wed, upper level shortwave energy moves from the Great Lakes Tue morning to off the New England coast Tue night...allowing a weak upper ridge axis to develop across the Great Lakes on Wed. TS Gert progged by all models (and NHC/TPC) to remain well off the coast with no impacts to the east coast other than the potential for an elevated rip current threat. Overall forcing over the local area looks minimal with a weak pressure gradient, but there will still be lingering moisture in vicinity of a weak boundary stalled across the Carolinas. In general, Tue looks a little more cloudy with higher precip chances than Wed and will have 30-60% PoPs Tue and 30-40% PoPs across the far S and SW with aob 15% N/NE for Wed. This will be mainly diurnal/aftn and evening SHRAs/tstms. Mostly cloudy Tue w/ highs in the m80s...except around 80F at the beaches. Lows Tue night from the u60s-m70s. Partly sunny Wed w/ highs around 90F inland...80-85F near the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Frontal boundary will be well S of the area for Wed night thru Thu, as weak sfc high pressure slides acrs the area then off the coast. Will have mainly dry conditions for Wed night, then have slgt chc to chc (20-30%) Pops for Thu for mainly diurnal showers or storms over WNW counties. A cold front will then approach fm the west during Fri, then slowly crosses the region Fri night and Sat. A secondary boundary may linger over ern/sern counties Sat night and Sun. Will have 30-40% Pops for Fri and Fri night, and 15-30% Pops for Sat thru Sun. Highs will range fm the mid 80s to around 90 Thu and Fri, and in the mid to upper 80s Sat and Sun. Lows will range fm the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A stationary front remains over the Carolinas early today...will only nudge a bit N this afternoon into midweek. Light mainly onshore flow will lead to gradually lowering CIGs today...w/ possible SCT SHRAs (ISOLD tstms possible mainly near-S of the VA-NC border). Additionally unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday night as the boundary remains near the local area. Conditions gradually improve Wed/Thu... w/ a chc of SHRAs/tstms returning Friday. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today through Tue. Latest sfc analysis shows a stalled frontal bndry near the NC coast with weak high pressure over the NE states. The front will remain in the same general vicinity through mid week with onshore flow aob 10 kt and weak waves of low pressure forming along the front. Main item of note is the potential for increasing seas as TS Gert passes well offshore. Current forecast calls for seas up to 4-5 ft by Tue night. With this being 4th period and still some uncertainty over whether seas will cap out at 4 ft or reach 5 ft (or higher), will hold off on any headlines attm. Seas then decrease into the second half of the week with sub-SCA winds continuing as well. The next cold front approaches from the west late in the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...MAS

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