Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201805 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 205 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure resides across the Mid Atlantic today. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and settles into the area Tuesday. Low pressure tracks near the Virginia North Carolina border Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Canadian high pressure build in from the north Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Current wv imagery shows a trough now well offshore, with a narrow ridge building across the Appalachians ahead of a trough pushing across the Great Lakes. Weak high pressure is situated over the local area early this morning with temperatures ranging trough the 30s under a clear sky. Mainly clear/sunny early this morning through midday, with increasing high clouds this aftn, especially N with mid-level WAA. Milder today with highs in the low/mid 50s along the coast to the low 60s farther inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure slides offshore and dissipates tonight as a shortwave trough and associated cold front approach from the NW. PoPs are slow to increase this evening, with only a 20- 30% across far nrn portions of the area through midnight. PoPs increase to 60% across the NW half of the area after midnight, with 20-40% elsewhere. QPF is minimal and generally aob 0.1". This system presently is triggering convection. However, the thermodynamic profile does not appear conducive for convection once it reaches the local area. PoPs rapidly diminish late tonight into early Tuesday morning as the upper system dampens. The cold front drops sewd and settles over the area Tuesday with mainly cloudy conditions continuing. Low-level dry air is expected to prevail through much of the day, with only a 20% PoP across SW portions ahead of low pressure developing over the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures range from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore, to around 60F near the Chesapeake Bay, 65-70F farther inland across central/srn VA and interior NE NC, and 70-75F for the SW piedmont. There is some instability aloft co-located with the 20% PoP. However, have opted not to mention thunder given a rather strong stable layer between 850-750mb. Surface low pressure tracks across NC Tuesday night through WEdnesday morning as a secondary cold front arrives from the N. 20/00z models have trended swd with this feature, so PoPs have been adjusted down to 30-50% across the N, with 60% across srn VA/NE NC, with 20-30% lingering across coastal SE VA/NE NC early Wednesday morning. Drier/cooler air arrives with a gusty NNW wind Wednesday as 1036mb high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into the nrn Mid- Atlantic. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 30s N to the mid 40s S/SW. Highs Wednesday range from the mid/upper 40s across the Ern Shore to the low/mid 50s farther inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry wx will prevail acrs the area Wed night thru Fri night, as high pressure builds down over the Mid Atlc region then slides out to sea. Mild to warm temps then expected Sat and Sun, but also a gradual increase in low level moisture and chcs for showers. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Fri, in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sun. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night and Sat night. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will slide off the SE coast later this aftn into tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure and an associated cold front will approach fm the NW this evening, and drop into the region later tonight into Tue morning. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight, but cigs should generally remain VFR. Showers are expected to accompany this system, moving thru the CWA and TAF sites fm arnd 04Z-12Z. This front slowly drops acrs the area during Tue, then settles over the Carolinas Tue night with low pressure tracking along the boundary and just off the NC coast by early Wed morning. This will bring a chc of rain, with the best chc acrs srn VA/NE NC. High pressure then builds in fm the N during Wed and settles over the area Thu. The high slides offshore Fri. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis depicts low pressure offshore the Northeast coast and high pressure just west of the waters. A northwest wind persists over the waters, with speeds generally 10-20 knots. SCA conditions have subsided over the bay and sound, but elevated seas (4-7 feet) persist. Waves have subsided to around 2 feet (3 feet in the mouth of the bay). High pressure builds southward today, sliding off the Southeast coast late. Northwest winds diminish to 10-15 knots this afternoon, and become south to southwest this evening. Seas slowly subside through the day thanks to long period swell, becoming 3-5 feet this afternoon and 2-4 feet this evening. A cold front drops into the region Tuesday afternoon, slowly pushing south of the waters Tuesday evening. Expect a north to northwest surge last Tuesday night through Wednesday as strong gradient winds and height rises overspread the waters. Speeds increase to 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. GFS guidance indicates potential for low end gales Wednesday morning with the initial surge. Strong high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon, spilling over the central Appalachians late afternoon. Cold air advection wanes Wednesday night, but with the high remaining northwest of the waters, expect SCA conditions to persist into Wednesday night. Seas build to 3-6 feet Wednesday and waves 2-4 feet. High pressure builds across the waters Thursday, bringing sub-SCA conditions back to the waters. Return flow expected Friday as high pressure slides offshore. The next front pushes across the waters late this weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJB/SAM

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