Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261940 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY NR THE CAROLINA CST. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE FORMING AS THE WEAK FRNT AND SHEARING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT ACT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MARGINALLY MOIST ATM. TREND IS TOWARDS DRIER CONDS TNGT HOWEVER AS THE COLUMN ALOFT DRYS OUT WITH SFC HI PRES BLDING IN FM THE W. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO NUDGE THE SFC FRNT OFFSHORE. SO POPS ARE CAPPED AT 20% FOR LATER THIS EVENG/OVRNGT AND LIMITED TO ONLY FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY UNDER A PRTLY/MSTLY CLR SKY TNGT. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC AND NE REGIONS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT JUST OFFSHORE THUR...HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A 20% OF AN AFTN/EVENG SHRA/TSTM OVER NE NC. NO MENTION OF RAIN ANYWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WITH ANY PCPN STAYING S OF THE FA. EXPECT A PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED PD RMNS UNCHANGED FM PAST COUPLE DAYS. RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES. MDL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THAT MOISTURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES. HARD TO DEVIATE FM MNLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PD. GIVEN THE PATTERN...AFT PD OF LWR HUMIDITY...OVR THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM/HUMID W/ TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE U60S TO L70F. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BKN-OVC CIGS (MNLY 5-10KFT) CONTG ACRS SE VA/NE NC. ALSO...ISOLD SHRAS FOUND JUST INLAND FM THE TAF SITES AT ORF/ECG...ALONG W/ NE WNDS AVGG 10-15 KT. FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN SLO TO SETTLE SE AWAY FM THE FA THROUGH TNGT...STALLING JUST OFF THE CSTL CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHRA PSBL INVOF ORF/ECG THIS AFTN/EVE...KEPT OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WILL CONT W/ BKN-OVC (VFR) CIGS INTO/THROUGH TNGT IN SE VA/NE NC BEFORE CLEARING FM THE NNW FOR THU. SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS THU THROUGH FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/ ONSHORE WNDS. SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL NR/JUST E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND. && .MARINE... FNTL BNDRY NOW S OF THE WTRS. NNE WNDS HAVE KICKED UP ACRS THE SRN BAY/SRN OCN WTRS SO FAR TDA...AVGG ARND 15 KT. AS A RESULT...WAVES HAS RISEN TO 2-3 FT (BAY)...AND 3-4 FT (OCN). LIKELY TO BE A PD OF DIMINISHED WNDS TNGT...W/ A SECOND SURGE XPCD THU MRNG. HOLDING ONTO WAVES/SEAS BEING SLGTLY ELEVATED SRN BAY/SRN OCN WTRS INTO THU BEFORE WNDS DIMINISH...AND WAVES/SEAS SUBSIDE. ELSW...NNE WNDS AVGG 10 KT OR LESS...W/ WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. HI PRES PASSING BY N OF THE WTRS THU INTO FRI...THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC CST FOR THE WKND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. XPCG SUB-SCA CONDS FM FRI THROUGH THE WKND...W/ WNDS FLUCTUATING FM NE-SE AND AVGG BLO 15 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH THAT PD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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