Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151851 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure retreats off the coast this evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. That cold front passes through the region late tonight into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday...then remains near the local area through the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Last vestiges of the BKN-OVC ST eroding over (interior portions of) the lower MD ern shore attm. It has turned out to be a very pleasant afternoon as the sun has returned and temperatures have responded back (well) above normal (through the 70s into the l80s). SSW winds a bit gusty at times to 15-25 kt...will subside into early this evening. Meanwhile...a cold front will continue to make steady progress E toward the mtns this evening. That front crosses the mtns by later tonight...then into NW portion of the FA by daybreak (Mon morning). Models continue to depict a narrow band of lift with the front...w/ the highest PoPs ~60% across the NW portion of the area later tonight (mainly after 08Z/16). After SKC this evening...increasing cloudiness overnight...w/ lows mainly 60-65F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The cold front continues ESE across the FA Mon morning...passing through far SE VA/NE NC late morning/midday. Mostly cloudy w/ PoPs 40-60% w/ the frontal boundary...w/ the downward trend in PoPs from NW-SE beginning by 16Z/16. Highs Mon will generally be in the l-m60s...and temperatures may remain steady or slowly fall across SE VA/NE NC Mon morning through aftn with clouds/pcpn and CAA in a NNW wind in the wake of the front. QPF will be minimal...and generally less than 0.25". Sfc hi pres pushes the cold front well E and S of the region Monday night...then the high builds over the local area by Tue afternoon. Mainly SKC...cool and dry conditions are expected. Lows Mon night will be mainly the l-m40s...some u30s possible over the Piedmont...and u40s-around 50F at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Tue to range from 60-65F. Sfc hi pres to sit over the FA Tue night and Wed...providing continued SKC/cool/dry wx. Near ideal radiational cooling expected Tue night (as any winds die down quickly Tue eve). Lows fromthe u30s-l40s inland (though m30s w/ patchy frost possible in some rural outlying areas)...to 45-50F right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed 65 to 70F.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong high pressure builds into the region allowing sunny skies, cooler temperatures, dry weather through the extended period. High pressure and clear skies should allow for good radiational cooling Tuesday night, thus undercut guidance slightly. Lows will fall into the lower 40s to even upper 30s in a few outlying locations Tuesday night. Highs will be near normal on Wednesday with highs around 70 degrees. Temperatures moderate a little each day with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s by Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows remain chilly through the period with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clearing out early this afternoon...w/ mainly VFR conditions expected through until late tonight/Mon morning. SSW winds gusty at times to 15-25kt until early this evening. A cold front pushing across the local area late tonight through early Mon afternoon will bring the potential for SHRAs and additional degraded flight conditions. The wind will shift to NNW at 10-15kt in the wake of the front Mon morning...w/ gusts of 20-25kt possible along the coast. High pres and a drier airmass build into the region Mon night and persist over the area until late in the upcoming week. && .MARINE... Update...SCAs for coastal waters through 1000 AM this morning have been cancelled. Seas have subsided below 5ft. Previous discussion... Light W-SW winds aob 10kt will prevail through this morning. Seas/waves average 3-4ft and 1-2ft respectively. A cold front approaches the region today, and the pressure gradient will tighten this aftn. Expect S-SW winds to increase to 15-20kt all coastal waters and 10-15kt rest of the waters during this time. Seas 3-4ft. Waves 2-3ft. SW winds continue to increase through the evening just ahead of the frontal passage. Expect speeds of 15-20kt on Ches Bay with seas building to 4-5ft north of Parramore Island. A new round of SCA flags has been issued for these areas from 800 PM tonight through the overnight hours. Behind the front, winds become NW-N and cold air advection processes dominate with speeds averaging 10-20kt all waters through Mon. Additional SCA flags for the rest of the coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the Lower James River will go into effect at 800 AM Mon morning. Seas 3-5ft. Waves 3-4ft. A secondary push of strong winds is anticipated for Mon night as high pressure builds in from the west and the pressure gradient tightens up again. Previously mentioned SCA flags will remain in effect through Tue aftn due to speeds averaging 15-25kt in these areas (gusts up to 30kt coastal waters and Currituck Sound at times). Seas build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 5-7ft south. Waves average 3-4ft (up to 5ft possible in the mouth of Ches Bay Mon night). High pressure resides over/near the waters Tue aftn through the rest of the week and conditions become more benign. Winds generally NE-E aob 10kt Tue evening through Wed... becoming more variable but remaining light Wed night through Thu evening. Seas average 2-4ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...BMD

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