Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270510 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 110 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LTST MSAS SHOWING HIGH PRS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH A SFC TROF IVOF THE I81 CORRIDOR WHERE SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODELS MOVE THIS TROF EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT KEEP THE BEST SPRT FOR CONVECTION TO THE N & E WHERE A WEAK S/W PROGGED TO TRACK ERLY MON MORN. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WRT PCPN MOVING INTO THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ECHOES WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FRTHR EAST INTO THE RIDGE. HOWEVER... NOT READY TO DROP POPS FROM FCST BUT WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST CHC SHWRS (30-40%) ACROSS NRN NECK INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR 08Z. OTW...SLGHT CHC POPS MAINLY N OF A I64 / RT 360 LINE. DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS UPR 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY... COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST TO BEGIN THE DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO BEGIN THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLOWLY PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MODEL THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS BUMPED UP TO 40-50% RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS MONDAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND UPTICK IN LLVL MOISTURE, BUT STILL NEAR CLIMO NORMS; GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT, AND HAVE THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF US-58). WEDNESDAY... WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UPWARD AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BUILDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW, COURTESY OF SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL RAMP UP A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY ON SSW FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST, WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BLOWING UP A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME, AND HAVE CAPPED POPS IN SILENT RANGE AOB 14%. OTHERWISE, HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM CHANCES TO THE FA THU AFTN...THEN A CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS THU EVE/NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. HOT AND HUMID THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NOT AS WARM FRI- SUN WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS MAINLY 85- 90...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. ISOLD SHRA INVOF KCHO DRIFTING SE WHILE WEAKENING...ALSO ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS OVR NCNTRL MD TRACKING ESE. VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT FOR THE 06Z TAF PD. WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT DRIFTS ACRS THE RGN TDA...W/ PSBL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION - AND LMTD PD OF LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND BRIEF GUSTY WNDS (MNLY MID/LT THIS AFTN-EVE). HI PRES SFC-ALOFT BUILDS OVR THE RGN FOR TUE THROUGH THU LIMITING (DIURNAL) CONVECTIVE PTNTL. OTRW...VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH MON. S-SE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THU-FRI. WAVES 1-2 FT; SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB/BMD MARINE...ALB/JDM

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