Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291902 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 302 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA (EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F. UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW. HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG. WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...JDM/TMG MARINE...JDM/LSA

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