Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282358 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... QUITE THE CHANGE THIS AFTN FM RECENT WX. THE VERY WARM/HOT/HUMID CONDS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR. BKN CU W/ TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING THROUGH THE RGN WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE W/ LOSS OF HEATING (LASTLY NE PORTION). LO TEMPS FM THE M/U50S W/CNTRL TO THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS MON. VEERING LO LVL FLO AHEAD OF NEXT SYS DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE/SCT-BKN CLDS. ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT DAY WITH SKY COND AVGG PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HI TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE M/U80S...U70S ALG THE BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY. CARRY 20-30% POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 FOR THE AFTN HRS...LOWERING TO 15% NR THE CST. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M60S W TO ARND 70F AT THE CST. PARTLY CLOUDY TUE W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M80S-L90S. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVES SE THROUGH OH/TN VALLEY BY WED...APPROACHING THE FA LT (WED). AGN WILL HAVE 15-30% POPS ACRS THE FA FOR WED AFTN. OTRW PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT/WED. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE U60S TO M70S. HI TEMPS WED MNLY 85-90F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT...STALLING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERTURBATIONS IN WNW FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0+ INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). WILL RETAIN 30-40% POPS DURING PEAK CLIMO TIMES...BUT TIMING OF BEST POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT ATTM DUE TO TIMING PERTURBATIONS ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS AND FRI AS H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF AROUND 15-17C. HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WEDS AND THURS NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY SAT...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AMPLIFYING FLOW LIFTS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NWD SAT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE APPROACH THE REGION SAT...CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED ATTM...SO WILL KEEP POPS 10-20 PCT SAT AND SUN. RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST). && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION AND LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. W-WNW WIND WILL SHFT TO NW-NE BY MON MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE RE-ORGANIZES OFF THE NE COAST. LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...WITH WLY GUSTS REACHING 20-23 KT OVER THE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT (HIGHEST 20 NM OUT) AND 2-4 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE NE COAST. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. ALL SCA HEADLINES DROP OFF AT 700 PM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH WLY WINDS DROPPING AOB 10-15 KT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING S-SELY MON AFTERNOON AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SFC TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA. THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING SLY WINDS AOB 15 KT (SSE TUES AND SSW WEDS). WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS VIC OF DELMARVA. SEAS RESPOND BUILDING TO 3-4 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE WEDS. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS...STALLING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...AJZ/SAM

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