Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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341 FXUS61 KAKQ 262028 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 428 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic Region tonight into Thursday and then push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next cold front pushes across the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Sfc low pressure located just off the NJ coast is slow to lift away from the Delmarva late this aftn. Although light showers/drizzle have come to an end over the MD Lower Eastern Shore, clouds will continue to persist over the area through this evening and then clear from southwest to northeast. The stacked low over NJ will finally push eastward overnight as another sfc low passes NNE across the Great Lakes States and drags a cold front towards the Mid Atlantic Region. The combination of light south winds and clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and mid-upper 50s for the Nrn Neck and MD/VA Eastern Shore where lack of warming today and persistent sct-bkn clouds will linger tonight. Compared to seasonal normals, temperatures will run about 15-20 degrees above normal but are not close to breaking record high minimum temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The approaching cold front will be slow to advance eastward through Thursday, therefore temperatures will warm nicely with breezy south winds (average gusts around 25 mph) under mostly sunny skies for the better part of the day. With the area remaining largely downsloped as well, expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 80s inland and anywhere from 75-84F beaches. High cirrus and cumulus clouds are expected to develop west of Interstate 95 as the front attempts to cross the mts. Expect shower/thunderstorm chances to increase during the evening (30-50% early evening west and 30-40% east after midnight). There is enough instability/lift along the front, in addition to favorable theta-e dynamics, to support thunder into the overnight hours. Pwats increase to 1.50-1.75 inches, and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible. Overall, precip totals should be under 0.25 inches. Warm overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60s. The front slowly exits the coast Friday morning with lingering showers and thunderstorms possible into the afternoon as daytime heating allows any waning convection/remnant moisture near the coast to re-fire (mainly Tidewater into NE NC and adjacent waters). Highs once again in the mid 80s inland to 75-84F beaches. Pwats lowering so only light qpf amounts (0.05 inches or less) anticipated. The front gets pushed NNE by Friday evening and stacked high pressure begins to dominate off the Southeast Coast. This will allow a warming trend to ensue. Lows Friday night in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Breezy southwest winds expected to develop on Saturday and promote excellent mixing conditions under mostly sunny skies. Highs Saturday in the upper 80s to 90F inland and in the low-mid 80s beaches. High cirrus to spread into the area from the northwest as a weak cold front to the north melds/merges with a warm front extending across nrn VA from a low in the srn Plains. Best dynamics for any shower/thunderstorm development is mainly north of the area, however far nrn counties could see better precip chances (up to 30% POP) Saturday aftn/evening...whereas the remainder of inland areas could experience isolated pop-up storms (up to 20% POP) along seabreeze boundaries. Pwats rebound to around 1.50 inches, thus making brief moderate to heavy rainfall possible with any convection that forms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through Sun, as an upper level ridge remains anchored just off the East coast. A backdoor cold front could affect nrn portions of the area Sat night thru Sun morning with a slgt chc of showers, then a slowly approaching cold front fm the west could produce isolated or widely sctd showers or tstms Sun aftn into Sun evening, esply wrn half of the region. Lows Sat night in the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Sun in the upper 70s to mid 80s. That cold front will push thru the mtns by late Mon, then cross the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have high chc to likely Pops for showers/tstms during this period. Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for later Tue morning thru at least most of Wed, as it slides fm the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on Tue in the 70s, and mainly in the mid to upper 70s on Wed.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface low pressure just off the NJ Coast is slow to lift away from the Delmarva late this aftn, and clouds will persist over this area and the Northern Neck through most of tonight before clearing. As such, CIGS will be slow to rise from MVFR to VFR... except off Ocean City where CIGS are currently IFR (700-1000ft AGL). All TAF sites should be VFR by 27/0900-1000Z. Dry Thursday but breezy with southwest winds gusting to around 20kt by late morning/early afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the region Thursday night and exit the coast Friday morning...slowly lifting NNE during Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight Thursday with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible and brief reductions to CIGS/VIS under stronger storm cores. Pleasant flying conditions anticipated for most of Friday. Another frontal boundary located well north of the area may provide a focus for more shower/thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/evening with isolated storms possible along seabreeze boundaries (all TAF sites). Once again, moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible under stronger storm cores with brief reductions to CIGS/VIS. && .MARINE...
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Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was just east of the NJ coast. The low will lift NE just off the New England coast tonight into Thu morning. Variable winds 10 kt or less early this evening, will become SE or S tonight into early Thu morning. Have maintained SCA for hazardous seas for the coastal waters into this evening (Srn waters) and thru Thu morning (Nrn waters), as seas slowly subside fm 5 to 7 feet, to 2 to 4 feet. The gradient becomes a bit stronger on Thu, with S winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Some residual swell around 9-10 sec and the increasing winds look to keep seas elevated/probably coming back up to 5 ft offshore and a SCA headline may be needed for coastal waters by Thu evening/night. Marginal SCA conditions possible for the Ches Bay/Rivers Thu aftn/evening, but overall would expect this to be below criteria for headlines given a very warm airmass (temps in 80s) over water temperatures in the 60s or cooler leading to less than optimal mixing. Waves will build to 2 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Similar conditions expected Fri/Sat, as the warm weather and a SSW flow persist. Some guidance depicting a backdoor cold front could shift winds to the NE for awhile for northern coastal waters by Sun, but most places likely to stay south of this boundary.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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While water levels will remain elevated through the next 48 hrs with seas off the coast of 4+ feet, and continued 9-10 sec swell, the High tide later today is the lower of the two and all sites should stay at least 0.5 feet below minor criteria. The following high tide cycle tonight/early Thu morning should stay just below minor flooding, but a statement may still be issued.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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