Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141631 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1131 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary...resulting in periods of unsettled weather through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Current analysis indicates cold front which crossed the area yesterday now well to our S over SC/GA. Strong sfc high pressure to ~1040 mb centered over southeastern New England is wedged SW into the Delmarva and eastern NC. Had some sleet across the MD eastern shore with temperatures around 32 F for an hr or two, now with precip becoming lighter and progged to slide off the coast after 18Z, temperatures there have risen into the mid 30s. Most other sections of the CWA have dried out, except will maintain a likely POP in northeast NC through 18Z where another batch of light rain is still ongoing. With the sfc wedge, and sfc dew pts near temperatures, have added areas of drizzle to much of the region for this aftn even though the chance for any measurable rain is low. Temperatures will not rise much from current values, highs to avg mid-upper 40s northeast Nc and southeast VA to the upper 30s over the far N of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Weak sfc lo pres develops offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening as shortwave energy aloft digs over the Delmarva. POPS will ramp back up this evening to likely/60-70% across the NE portions of the CWA, with 30-40% over much of central and southeast VA (only a 10-20% for south central VA and interior northeast NC too far to the south of the track of the shortwave). Lows in the low-mid 30s N to around 40 F far S. Not a concern for mixed precip even as temperatures over the N may fall to 32 F or colder by sunrise since the precip should be ending by 06Z or shortly thereafter. Latest guidance continues to push bulk of moisture S of the region tonight into Sun. Best chances at significant drying/clearing expected to be across the ern portions of the FA through Sun...while considerable cloudiness remains over the rest of the FA (especially the Piedmont). Highs Sun in the low- mid 40s N to the u40s SW. Models begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs across the piedmont to I 95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon. Lows Sun night in the l30s N to the u30s S. Highs Mon in the l/m40s N to around 50F far SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended period. At this time, will go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for showers. Best chcs will be Wed/Wed night and again on Fri. Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon night, and ranging fm the lower 40s to lower 50s Tue night, Wed night, and Thu night. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 14z...Strong high pressure ridge extending from southern New England to North Carolina will weaken over the area through tonight. Light precipitation this morning will taper off toward midday southern portions but continue in the SBY area through the afternoon. This will be in the form of rain except for possible sleet at SBY this morning. Onshore flow will increase low level moisture and lower ceilings through the TAF period. Expect conditions to lower to IFR this evening and overnight. OUTLOOK...The lower ceilings will linger into Sunday morning. Conditions slowly improve later Sunday and Monday as the cold air erodes and southerly flow begins. There will be a small chance for showers Wednesday. && .MARINE... SCA in effect for the coastal waters south of Parramore Island was extended til 4 PM EST. Seas have stayed up or increased slightly this morning with moderate northeast winds. Wavewatch has seas diminishing during the day and expect this trend to catch up and bring seas below 5 feet by late this afternoon. Previous Discussion... SCA headlines continue for the Mouth of the Bay, Sound, and southern coastal waters with sub-SCA conditions currently over the other waters. NE flow up to 15-20 kt over the Mouth of the Bay and Sound will end around 7 am, while 5 ft seas out 20 nm will linger until midday over the coastal waters. Marine conditions then improve this aftn into tonight as strong sfc high pressure currently over the NE states weakens and slides offshore. A weak northerly surge is expected Sun morning but winds are expected to stay just below SCA criteria. A warm front lifts north through the area late Mon, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the region during the middle of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS/LSA

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