Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251034 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 634 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RAIN DISSIPATING AT IT APPRCHS THE CHES BAY / LWR MD ERN SHORE THIS MORNING DESPITE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. TMPS XPCTD TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME ANY PCPN REACHES THAT AREA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED THE WORDING TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS HE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AS THE ECHOES REMAIN LIGHT WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN NOTED. PVS DSCN: MODELS SHOWING WAA AT H85 AHEAD OF APPRCHG WRM RESULTING IN THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA ERLY THIS MORNING. DATA SUPPORTS THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WRM FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTRN. ADJUSTED POPS PER CRNT RADAR LOOP WITH LIKELY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. SUPPORT FOR PCPN THEN SHIFTS TO THE WRN PIEDMONT DUE TO A SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND PSEUDO INSITU WEDGE MAINLY ALONG A LKU-FVX LINE. DRYING NOTED IN LWR LVLS ALONG AND E OF I95 BUT TSCTNS DO SHOW PLNTY OF MID/HIGH LVL MSTR FOR MSTLY CLDY TO PT SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ARND 50 LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS...L-M50S NORTH... U50S-L60S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FA IN BTWN DEPARTING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRS TO THE NW TONITE. SLY WINDS AID IN THE INCREASE IN MSTR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PCPN (CHC POPS) AFTR MIDNIGHT. WARMER WITH EVENING LOWS IN THE M-U40S NORTH TO M50S SOUTH. STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TMPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. CHALLENGING FCST WRT PCPN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS MODELS DEPICT SHWR CHCS DURING THE ERLY MORNING...A LULL IN COVERAGE WITH EVEN SOME PRTL SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND ERLY AFTRN THEN ADDNTL SHWR ACTIVITY DVLPNG LATE AFTRN AND INTO THE EVENING. SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT DESPITE THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY POP FCST. SLGHT CHC THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I95 WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTAB IS NOTED. THIS FCSTD LULL WILL AID IN TMPS BEING ABLE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES XPCT NEAR 70 ALONG CSTL SCTNS AS FA REMAINS IN WRM SCTR. BREEZY AS S-SW WINDS GUST BTWN 15-25 MPH...30 MPH COAST. MAIN COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE INHERETED POPS (HIGH CHC/LIKELY). WARM AHEAD OF FROPA WITH TMPS FALLING OFF INTO THE M40S-L50S BY12Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON FRI AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. LOW CHC SHWR ACTIVITY AS ANY HTNG WILL ACT ON LEFTOVER MOISTURE. TMPS SOME 20-25 DEGREES COLDER FRI THAN THUR. GIVEN THE CLOUDS/SHWR CHCS/N-NW WINDS..WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TMPS ALOG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL WATER TMPS. HIGHS FROM THE U40S TO NR 50 ALONG THE COAST...L-M50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY. GFS QUICKER THAN ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD MSTR OFFSHORE. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE PCPN EXITS BEFORE THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WOULD HAVE P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE BUFFER SNDGS SHOW THE PSBLTY OF SOME MIXED PCPN LATE FRI NIGHT THERE. WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN THE EVENING LOWERING TO SLGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY. LOWS IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRES SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT...WITH DRYING XPCTD THRU THE WKND IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES BUILDS ACRS SE CONUS WKND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. COOL SAT THEN GRADUAL WARMING TREND LT WKND AND EARLY NEXT WK. COLDEST DAY WILL BE SAT WITH HI TEMPS MNLY 45-50F. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE U20S/M30S. HIGHS SUN MNLY L/M50S. LOWS SUN NGT 35-40F. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M50S TO 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOWEST TO DEVELOP AT KSBY...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 21Z WED-00Z THU. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY -RA/-DZ TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... E-NE WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOW- END SCA WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND CURRITUCK SOUND. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. MARGINAL SCA WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CHES BAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO HOIST AN SCA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT THURSDAY...WITH WAVES 3 FT ON THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM/JEF MARINE...JDM

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