Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 141631
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1131 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary...resulting
in periods of unsettled weather through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Current analysis indicates cold front which crossed the area
yesterday now well to our S over SC/GA. Strong sfc high pressure
to ~1040 mb centered over southeastern New England is wedged SW
into the Delmarva and eastern NC. Had some sleet across the
MD eastern shore with temperatures around 32 F for an hr or
two, now with precip becoming lighter and progged to slide off
the coast after 18Z, temperatures there have risen into the mid
30s. Most other sections of the CWA have dried out, except will
maintain a likely POP in northeast NC through 18Z where another
batch of light rain is still ongoing. With the sfc wedge, and
sfc dew pts near temperatures, have added areas of drizzle to
much of the region for this aftn even though the chance for any
measurable rain is low. Temperatures will not rise much from
current values, highs to avg mid-upper 40s northeast Nc and
southeast VA to the upper 30s over the far N of the CWA.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak sfc lo pres develops offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast this
evening as shortwave energy aloft digs over the Delmarva. POPS
will ramp back up this evening to likely/60-70% across the NE
portions of the CWA, with 30-40% over much of central and
southeast VA (only a 10-20% for south central VA and interior
northeast NC too far to the south of the track of the
shortwave). Lows in the low-mid 30s N to around 40 F far S. Not
a concern for mixed precip even as temperatures over the N may
fall to 32 F or colder by sunrise since the precip should be
ending by 06Z or shortly thereafter.
Latest guidance continues to push bulk of moisture S of the
region tonight into Sun. Best chances at significant
drying/clearing expected to be across the ern portions of the FA
through Sun...while considerable cloudiness remains over the
rest of the FA (especially the Piedmont). Highs Sun in the low-
mid 40s N to the u40s SW. Models begin to spread moisture back
NNE into the region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of
the ridge axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for
widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will
have 20-40% PoPs across the piedmont to I 95 late Sun
night...lowering through the day Mon. Lows Sun night in the l30s
N to the u30s S. Highs Mon in the l/m40s N to around 50F far
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. At this time, will go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Wed/Wed night and again on Fri.
Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon night, and ranging fm the
lower 40s to lower 50s Tue night, Wed night, and Thu night.
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 14z...Strong high pressure ridge extending from southern New
England to North Carolina will weaken over the area through tonight.
Light precipitation this morning will taper off toward midday
southern portions but continue in the SBY area through the
afternoon. This will be in the form of rain except for possible
sleet at SBY this morning. Onshore flow will increase low level
moisture and lower ceilings through the TAF period. Expect
conditions to lower to IFR this evening and overnight.
OUTLOOK...The lower ceilings will linger into Sunday morning.
Conditions slowly improve later Sunday and Monday as the cold air
erodes and southerly flow begins. There will be a small chance for
SCA in effect for the coastal waters south of Parramore Island
was extended til 4 PM EST. Seas have stayed up or increased
slightly this morning with moderate northeast winds. Wavewatch
has seas diminishing during the day and expect this trend to
catch up and bring seas below 5 feet by late this afternoon.
SCA headlines continue for the Mouth of the Bay, Sound, and
southern coastal waters with sub-SCA conditions currently over
the other waters. NE flow up to 15-20 kt over the Mouth of the
Bay and Sound will end around 7 am, while 5 ft seas out 20 nm
will linger until midday over the coastal waters. Marine
conditions then improve this aftn into tonight as strong sfc
high pressure currently over the NE states weakens and slides
offshore. A weak northerly surge is expected Sun morning but
winds are expected to stay just below SCA criteria. A warm front
lifts north through the area late Mon, with winds becoming
southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the
region during the middle of next week.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654-