Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161916 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region tonight and Tuesday, and then remains over the area through the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Lingering post frontal showers this afternoon persist in the east as the upper trough continues to push through. Areas of rain will push off the coast this evening with some lingering rain over northeast portions of NC after 00z. Skies remain cloudy to mostly cloudy for a time before starting to clear tonight from west to east. Temperatures will drop quickly in areas across the piedmont tonight where skies clear first winds lessen. Expect some mixing overnight with a little wind which should mitigate patchy frost north and west of Richmond where some reading in the upper 30s could occur. Generally overnight lows in the upper 30s to around 40 western piedmont, 40 to 43 central VA and MD then mid to upper 40s at the coast. However a secondary surge of cool air overnight will keep winds up and conditions breezy in areas near the Bay and coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Continued breezy Tuesday morning especially in the east as high pressure builds in form the west. Conditions become more calm by afternoon with the high directly over the region. With sunny skies highs will moderate some compared to Monday with temperatures generally in the mid 60s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the coldest as winds remain calm and dewpoints low as we head into Tuesday evening. Expect lows to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the western piedmont. This will be a best chance for patchy frost (Wed am) and have added a mention of areas of frost to the forecast for Wed am generally across the piedmont and even interior portions of MD Eastern Shore. Closer to the coast lows should average low to mid 40s with upper 40s to near 50 at the immediate coast. Expect a gradual warning trend and continued dry Wed and Thu as the ridge remains in place this week. Thu will see highs around 70 and low to mid 70s Friday. Overnight lows will also warm Wed and Thu night with lows ranging form the upper 30s to lower 40s well inland to 50s at the coast. Again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will the coldest with the best chance for front Wed am.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure slowly builds over the area through Sat then moves off the coast Sun/Mon. Dry conditions continue along with a slow warming trend. Highs Fri 70-75. Lows upr 40s-upr 50s. Highs Sat/Sun in the mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s. Models show the next cold front approaching Mon. GFS quicker moving it east, ECMWF a bit slower. Will go with low chc pops mainly in the afternoon then chc pops Mon nite. Highs in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Post frontal rainfall will continue to move east this afternoon across primarily PHF...ORF and ECG. Rain has ended at both RIC and SBY. Rainfall across the southeast should be mainly light and will taper off across southeast VA by 21-22z and ECG by 22-00z. Conditions were mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs limited to far southeast VA and eastern NC. Ceilings will lift across the southeast to VFR through late afternoon and early evening. NNW winds in the wake of the front will continue to average 10-15kt, and gusts up to 20-25kt along the coast. High pressure and a drier airmass move into the region overnight and will persist over the area through Friday. && .MARINE... Sfc cold front slower to arrive by about 3 hours as previously anticipated. Winds generally SW with speeds averaging 15-20kt Bay/Ocean/Lwr James River; 10kt elsewhere. Winds become N and increase as cold air advection processes commence. Speeds will average 10-20kt all waters through today. Seas build to 4-5ft north/5-6ft south by this aftn with waves 3-4ft. All SCA flags are now in effect for today through Tue. Added York and Rappahannock Rivers into SCA as well...ending at 700 AM Tue morning. A secondary push of strong winds is anticipated for tonight as high pressure builds in from the west, colder air surges down from the north, and the pressure gradient tightens up again. Speeds increase to an average of 15-25kt tonight. Seas build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 5-8ft south this evening through mid morning Tue. Waves average 4-5ft during the same time. SCA flags will remain in effect through at least Tue aftn for Bay/Ocean/Sound/Lwr James River. Seas south of Parramore Island stay elevated to around 5ft through Tue evening...with coastal waters from VA/NC border being the last to subside below 5ft by midnight Tue night. Otherwise, high pressure resides over/near the waters Tue aftn through the rest of the week with conditions becoming more benign. Winds generally NE-E Tue evening through Wed... becoming more variable but remaining light Wed night through Thu night. Main high pressure slides offshore but is reinforced by another sfc high building over the ern half of the US. Winds to become more NW-N Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds sub-SCA Tue night through Fri night. Seas generally 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. && .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...JAO SHORT TERM...JEF LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ/JAO MARINE...BMD EQUIPMENT...

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