Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250938 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 438 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic this afternoon and evening. High pressure and more seasonal conditions return Sunday and Monday. Low pressure tracks across the Carolinas Monday night and pushes off the coast Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strong low pressure surface and aloft is lifting newd through the Great Lakes early this morning, with a cold front trailing back through the Ohio Valley. Showers/tstms are ongoing as of 09z along the wrn slopes of the Appalachians, with lightning data showing a diminishing trend. Locally, a surface ridge axis persists over SE VA/NE NC, which has produced conditions favorable for patchy fog. Otherwise, conditions are mostly clear to partly cloudy with mild temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. The cold front will continue to advance ewd across the Appalachians this morning, and then across the Mid-Atlantic during the aftn and early evening. The shortwave trough is expected to progress to the east rather than lifting northeast. Additionally, there appears to be some interaction between the LFQ of a 200mb jet across the srn Conus and the RRQ of an anticyclonic jet over QB resulting in deep lift across the region this aftn with showers/tstms re-developing (after a mid- late morning lull) along the cold front. 500mb flow of ~60kt in vicinity of an axis of 0-1km MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will likely result in some quick moving stronger line segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts. SPC has placed most of the local area in a slight risk for severe storms. Most of the day will be dry, but PoPs will be 60-80% for ~3hr period for most of the area this aftn, with 30-50% far SE. QPF will average 0.25" or less. Continued warm today with highs ranging from the low/mid 70s N, to the upper 70s/around 80 SE. See the climo section below for more details with respect to records. Partly to mostly sunny this morning and then becoming mostly cloudy to overcast by aftn. Breezy (outside of tstms) with a SSW wind averaging 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The cold front is progged to push off the coast by 00z with colder drier air arriving from the NW in modest CAA. Temperatures fall through the 50s into the 40s during the evening, with overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 30s from the piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, with low 40s across coastal SE VA/NE NC. The sky will become mostly clear behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure builds across the Southeast States Sunday, up along the SE VA coast Sunday night, and then quickly moves well off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Monday with strong zonal flow aloft. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 40s over the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore to the low 50s from central/S-central/SE VA to NE NC. Mostly sunny and breezy from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore, with the wind diminishing elsewhere, during the aftn. Min RH values drop to 20-25% W of the Bay, but the lowest RH should occur as the wind diminishes, so this combined with the potential for rain today should minimize any fire weather concerns. The wind will decouple Sunday night, with lows dropping into the low/mid 30s (upper 30s/around 40 for coastal SE VA/NE NC). Clouds increase late Sunday night into Monday as the surface high moves offshore and shortwave moisture/energy begins streaming into the region from the southwest. The forecast remains dry with temperatures generally warming into the lower 60s (upper 50s far nrn counties and MD/VA Eastern Shore). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A couple of opportunities for much-needed-rain are showing up in the medium range model guidance for next week. The first such opportunity is Monday night into Tuesday as a disturbance lifts NE across the region in the mid/upr levels. PoPs have been increased to ~60% for SE VA/NE NC, with 40-50% elsewhere (30-40% far NW) as 25/00z models remain in decent agreement. There is a brief reprieve Tuesday aftn/night before the next system is expected to impact the region during Wednesday. Subtle timing differences exist between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to timing of the onset of pcpn. However, agreement is good enough in the models at this point for solid chc pops (~40%). Drier weather looks to return late next week with high pressure attempting to rebound. Highs will remain unseasonably warm Tues/Wed from the mid 60s to the mid/upr 70s (warmest Wed). Trending cooler next Thursday/Friday with highs returning to the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure is centered off the coast as of 06z and is ridging to the SW along the Southeast Coast. Mostly clear conditions are prevailing with some cirrus, and a light S/SE wind around 5-8kt. Bkn cigs ~5kft are developing W of RIC. Surface high pressure will continue to prevail through the morning. Statistical guidance seems too aggressive with fog/stratus, with the latest numerical guidance showing less fog. A period of MVFR vsby has been included for SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG but confidence for fog remains low. Showers/tstms are expected to develop during the aftn with a strong line possible from 20-00z. High pressure builds in from the W Saturday night into Sunday, with a gusts NW wind possible tonight into early Sunday, and into Sunday aftn for SBY. High pressure slides offshore Sunday night into Monday, followed by weak low pressure Monday night into Tuesday, which brings a chc of rain. Another cold front approaches from the W by Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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Early this morning, low pressure was lifting NE well off the NC coast, while a cold front was pushing into the Appalachian mtns. The low will continue to move NE well off the East coast during today, while the cold front will cross the marine waters late this aftn thru this evening. A South wind will increase to 10 to 20 kt this aftn in advance of the front, but should still remain sub-SCA, although locally stronger gusts are possible with tstms this aftn into early this evening. Seas are currently running 3-5 ft, and will increase to 4-6 ft all ocean zones later today into tonight with the frontal passage. Waves in the Ches Bay will increase to 2-4 ft. The cold front will move off the coast this evening/early tonight followed by modest CAA and strong pressure rises. NW winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and 4-6 ft seas/3-4 ft waves into Sun morning. SCA flags are in effect fm this evening thru late tonight for the Ches Bay, Sound and Rivers. SCA flags are in effect for the coastal waters thru Sun morning. The wind diminishes Sun aftn as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure quickly pushes offshore Sun night into Mon with the wind becoming S.
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&& .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for today and Sat, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be the 2nd warmest and ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Saturday 2/25: 2/25 ---------- RIC 83 in 1930 ORF 81 in 1930 SBY 80 in 1930 ECG 77 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ

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