Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260745 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 345 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure building across the Southeast states today will promote dry and pleasant conditions. Warmer temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low pressure continues to lift NE over southern New England this morning. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is building over the Southeast states. With the low continuing to head NE today, expect deep layered WNW flow to promote dry, breezy and comfortable conditions under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs in the upr 70s to low 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW tonight into Sat. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA. SPC has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA in a slight risk...w/ remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/KG, with 30-40 kt of effective shear and steep low- level lapse rates. Main threats will be large hail and localized damaging winds. Otherwise...mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight-Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the upr 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Highs Sat from the mid/upr 70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the mid/upr 80s inland. Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. Another S/W aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/ daytime heating likely results in SCT convective development. Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly to mostly cloudy Sun w/ highs mainly in the low/mid 80s, except 70s Eastern Shore and at the beaches. Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the weekend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday across NE NC and south VA. High pressure builds across the region for Tue Night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions expected. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will take hold today as drier weather moves into the region. West winds will gust up to 25 mph. Sct showers and storms return for Saturday afternoon into early next week as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled.
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&& .MARINE...
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Low pressure off the NJ coast will continue to move NE and away from the area today. Meanwhile, another trof will rotate around this low. Models continue to show a decent pressure gradient behind the departing low through mid afternoon with diminishing winds by evening. Thus, SCA headlines remain in place today for WSW winds 15-25 kts and 4-5 ft seas. High pressure to the south builds into the region tonight and Sat resulting in winds aob 15 kts, seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes onshore once again Sat night and Sun as a frontal system stalls across the region. Expect winds aob 15 kts, seas 3-4 ft. Sct aftrn / evening tstrms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend as weak low pressure tracks along the frontal boundary. The start of the 2017 rip current season features a moderate threat of rips along the lower Delmarva beaches with a low risk over VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will result in elevated water levels through Friday. Have issued several coastal flood products to account for this. See CFWAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075-077-078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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