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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232005
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern
through Sunday night. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move
northward between the offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda
through most of the upcoming week. A cold front is expected to
cross the area by mid week and push Maria east of the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Not much of a pattern change anticipated for tonight with
stacked high pressure to the north and a weak upper low over the
Gulf Coast states west of FL. Kept low temperatures similar to
those experienced this morning and added patchy fog mainly for
inland VA/NE NC areas late this evening to just after sunrise.
Expect mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

The stacked high slowly slides eastward on Sun...preventing
Hurricane Maria from moving too far northward. Skies remain
mostly sunny with temperatures warming nicely to highs in the
mid-upper 80s inland (low-mid 80s beaches due to breezy NE
winds). Afternoon dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to
mid 60s will create ambient conditions that should feel
comfortable rather than humid.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southern end of the stacked high begins to break down Sun night
as Hurricane Maria drifts northward but remaining well off the
Southeast Coast. Biggest change will be slightly warmer
overnight lows in the mid 60s (upper 60s to around 70F beaches)
as onshore/NE winds remain breezy in response to the pressure
gradient tightening between the sfc high to the north and Maria
to the south.

Maria continues to move northward on Monday with gradient winds
remaining persistently breezy from the NE. Gusts around
20-25 mph should be anticipated along coastal areas of
SE VA/NE NC...where farther inland, gusts should range from
15-20 mph. Clouds from the outer bands of Maria will start to
rotate into areas along the coast from NE NC to MD...especially
as the afternoon progresses. This should impact temperatures
near SE coastal areas with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Farther inland, less clouds present should allow temps to warm
into the mid- upper 80s. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
Mon afternoon if the outer bands can make it far enough north to
rotate into far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas. Per 12Z data, models
in fair agreement in showing Maria`s center located an average
of 320 miles SE of Cape Hatteras by Monday evening with
variations in precip coverage, thus the reason why precip is
limited to isolated for Mon.

From Mon night into Tue, model consensus begins to fall apart.
The general trend among all models is for Maria to continue
pushing northward. However, the GFS is more progressive in
shifting its track NNW and closer to Cape Hatteras (around
160 miles ESE), whereas the ECMWF shows a slower northward track
and keeping the center around 225 miles SE of Cape Hatteras.
Despite model differences, the overall trend is for Maria to
approach the Mid Atlantic Region Mon night and Tue with precip
chances increasing during this time. Have broad-brushed POPs
into 6 hour segments in an effort to show the upward trend while
not putting too much detail into the forecast until models get a
better handle on how close Maria can get to the coast before
being pushed out to sea by a cold front and incoming upper
trough with stronger westerly steering winds aloft. Given model
differences, temperatures will be tricky...however dewpoints
will be on the rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect
increasing low temperatures Mon night (upper 60s to lower 70s),
and lower high temperatures on Tue due to more clouds/precip
across the area. Highs in the mid-upper 70s near the coast to
around 80F generally along/west of Interstate 95.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
First part of the extended, Tuesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of Hurricane Maria. Latest
NHC track is a bit further west than 24 hours ago, which
increases the potential for some rainfall near the Bay/Ocean,
somewhat stronger winds, higher seas, and some coastal
flooding. Have utilized Superblend for tangible weather during
this period, given potential uncertainty in the track.

Models quite consistent after the daytime hours Thursday in
taking Maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area. in
advance of upper trof dropping southeastward from Canada. This
trof and associated cold front move into the region next
Saturday /Day 7/.

Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, with highs
from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday/Saturday in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Lows Tuesday
night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around
70F, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the
50s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions prevail for the most part through the 18z TAF
period, as high pressure remains in control over the area. Have
maintained some MVFR overnight at KRIC/KSBY per 12Z TAF
issuance. This seems reasonable given little overall pattern
change, and dew points are about the same as Friday. Have kept
KORF VFR through the period, as that terminal is generally not
prone to nocturnal fog development.

However, have opted to forecast similar conditions to Friday
night at KPHF/KECG. Both these locations had at least
intermittent IFR/LIFR Friday night. Since the overall pattern is
unchanged from the last 24 hours, both of these sites should
again see intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions after 02Z.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through the Monday due to
the influence of high pressure over the region. Sub-VFR
conditions will be possible Tuesday through mid next week,
primarily at eastern TAF sites, as moist northerly flow from
Tropical Cyclone Maria overspreads the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose remains centered
SE of Cape Cod, and is forecast to gradually pushing ewd thru
Sun while weakening. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria was located
about 350 miles east of Nassau, and is forecast to track to the
NNW thru today, then track nwrd thru Wed to well off the outer
banks of NC.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However, the SCA
for hazardous seas will continue, and will be extended thru Sun
night, as energetic ESE swell will continue. Swell arrives from
Maria most likely beginning Sun night, and continuing into next
week. The bulk of the forecast guidance still keeps Maria just
offshore Tue into Thu, before it gets kicked quickly ENE out to
sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have
increased winds and seas fcst for Mon thru Wed. Monitor the NHC
forecast for the official forecast track of Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through
the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what
it has been, they should stay just below flood. Will need to
watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the
bay as the swell from Maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues thru today, as swell/nearshore waves will be
slow to subside.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075-
     077.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB/WRS
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...