Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240017 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 817 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATE TO INCREASE POP/SKY COVER THE REST OF TONIGHT... INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS NE NC THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND EXPANDED COVERAGE/WORDING INTO FAR SRN VA LATE THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...POPS START OUT AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP WITH LOW QPF. SHOWERS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT IN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO DUE TO CLOUD BASES AVERAGING 8-12 KFT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NE NC FROM THE EAST THUS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPGLIDE TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION GENERATION ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1029 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVR WRN PA WITH A STATIONARY FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NE STATES TNGT AS AN AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT. ALOFT...A WEAK CUTOFF LO WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVR THE SE STATES...DRAWING MOISTURE NWD UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THINK FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE FA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENG WITH HI CIGS...HOWEVER AS MOISTENING OCCURS DID INCREASE POPS FM S TO N THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. POPS ARE CAPPED AT 50% THRU 6AM FOR NOW WITH ANY PRECIP EXPECTED TO START OFF LIGHT. OTWS...EXPECT A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY ON AVG WITH N/NE WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LO/MID 50S OVR THE PIEDMONT TO THE LO 60S NEAR THE CST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO WET WX AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC CST. DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WEAKENING ON WED...CONTINUED PIVOTING SHORTWAVE TROFS AND THE CSTL TROF/SFC LO IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST ERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY WED AFTN/EVENG. DID INCREASE POPS TO 60-70% WRN AREAS AND 80-90% ERN AREAS. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CST WHERE 2-3 INCHES IS PSBL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE PRECIP WILL END FM W TO E THU/THU NGT. DRY WX RETURNS FOR FRI ASIDE FM A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVR FAR ERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MODELS NOW PULL LOW PRESSURE OUT NEAR 70W THEN STALL IT THERE FOR A WHILE FRI NIGHT AND ERLY SAT BEFORE LIFTING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE SERN COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO ERLY SAT. OTW..HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SAT AFTN THRU MON RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TMPS. HIGHS 75-80. LOWS IN THE M50S-M60S. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN YSTRDYS RUNS SO WILL INTRO LOW CHC POPS ATTM GIVEN A DAY 7 FCST. LOWS MON 60-65. HIGHS TUE IN THE M-U70S.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CURRENTLY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY NE...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO NE NC AND SE VA BY WED MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...CAUSING NE WINDS TO GUST TO ~25KT ALONG THE COAST BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS WILL BE LIKELY THOUGHT THE MAJORITY OF DAY ON WED...WITH IFR VIS POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST THUR EVENING ENDING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND HELPING TO IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NWD OVER THE WATERS BY WED & WED NIGHT. PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS NE WINDS INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS. WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE SCA`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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS MOVES NE ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES RISE TO BTWN 1-1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AROUND THE NEW MOON...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE BAY (INCLUDING SEWELLS POINT) WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MD BEACHES MAY ALSO APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...DAP MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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