Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220250 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 950 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure tracks northeast off the mid-Atlantic coast late tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front crosses the area late tonight then moves off the coast Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low pressure lingers off the southeast coast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Moisture continuing to stream N along the SE CONUS coast toward the mid-Atlantic states this evening. CIGS will be lowering slowly through the next few hours...w/ ISOLD-SCT SHRAs developing/arriving. Meanwhile...cold front W of the mountains making steady progress E and will be crossing the mountains later tonight as a weak sfc lo pres tracks off the NC coast. PoPs to 30-60% after midnight. Mild overnight w/ lows 45-50F W to the m50s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pres tracks across the VACAPES early Wed with the cold front moving offshore around 12Z. Any lingering shwrs progged to move offshore around 15Z. Column begins to dry out west to east Wed as high pres builds in from the west. Mstly sunny west, becoming mstly sunny east. Lagging CAA and sunshine allows temps to rise into the mid 50s north to lwr 60s south. High pressure approaches from the west Wed night, then becomes centered across the region Thurs through Fri. This high keeps the moisture coming off of Fla mainly south of HAT Thurs before moving farther offshore Thurs night and Fri. Mostly clr to pt cldy Wed nite. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s. Pt to mstly sunny Thurs. Highs mid 40s north-lwr 50s south. Mstly clr Thu night. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s. Mstly sunny and a little milder Fri. Highs lwr-mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next cold front crosses the area late Sat. Not much in the way of moisture to work with but will carry slght chc pops with it Sat night per a GFS soln. ECMWF suggests a dry fropa. Highs in the upr 50s-lwr 60s. Lows in the mid 30s-lwr 40s. Dry and colder early next week as a 1025mb Canadian high slowly moves se across the region. Highs Sun mid 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Coldest day Mon with highs low to mid 40s. Lows Mon night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Tue in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions to start the forecast period as high/mid level clouds increase through 03-06Z/22. Latest guidance suggests CIGS continue to lower (but still remain above 3k FT) across the region late this evening with pcpn holding off until 04-08Z/22. Moisture ahead of a cold front will combine with lo pres moving NE along the coast to produce MVFR CIGS/VSBYS (w/ SHRAs) roughly between 06Z-14Z/22...pushing offshore around 15Z. Some of the guidance is showing local IFR CIGS around 12Z/22 but confidence not high enough that will occur. Drying of the column will result in decreasing clouds through the day with all TAF sites becoming VFR by 16-18Z/22. Winds shift to the NNW behind the cold frontal passage Wed morning. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the region from the W. && .MARINE... High pressure will move farther out to sea tonight. Meanwhile, weak low pressure will track northeast just off the coast tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. These systems push out to sea Wednesday afternoon. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week. Have hoisted SCA`s for all the waters except the Rappahannock River, York River, and the upper James River. Southerly winds mainly 5-15 kt (except 15-20 kt over nrn two coastal waters) this evening into late tonight, will become WNW 5-15 kt early Wed morning, then become NW or N and increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for Wed aftn into Wed night. Waves will build to 3-4 ft in the Ches Bay, and seas will build to 4-6 ft. N winds will diminish Wed night into Thu morning, as cool high pressure builds into the region. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Thanksgiving Day and Fri with high pressure nearby. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...

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