Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 052045 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INTENSIFYS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... LOW PRS OFF THE NE COAST CONTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE RGN WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE TN VLLY. TSCTNS DRY RESULTING IN A MAINLY CLR SKY TONITE. QUESTION AS TO WHERE WNDS DECOUPLE WHICH WILL ALLOW TMPS TO QUICKLY DROP. THIS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHILE SLOWLY DMNSHG WINDS WILL KEEP AIRMASS MIXED ALONG THE COAST. LOWS IN THE M-U20S XCPT U20S-L30S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE RGN SAT THEN SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC TROF REMAINS NRLY STNRY IVOF GULF STREAM WALL. UPSHOT WILL BE DRY CNDTNS WITH NR NRML TMPS. HIGHS SAT IN THE M-U40S. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE M20S-L30S. ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE S AS A POTENT S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL SPAWN ANTHR STORM OFF THE FLA COAST SAT NITE WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENSIS PROGGED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN. THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE CSTL TROF SUN NITE THEN ACROSS THE VACAPES MON. THIS SYSTM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT FOR MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ERLY NEXT WEEK. WRT SENSIBLE WX INLAND...MODELS DIFFER WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST ANY SGNFCNT MSTR GETS WHICH WILL LIKELY ALL DEPEND ON THE SYSTMS TRACK. SREF MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH THE GFS/NAM KEEPING PCPN CONFINED TO CSTL SCTNS. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/GFS SOLN AND CONFINED PCPN TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY FOR NOW. DRY SUN AND SUN NITE WEST OF THE BAY. GRIDS WILL INDICATE CHC POPS SPREADING NE ALONG THE NC AND SERN VA COAST THRU THE DAY SUN WITH CHC POPS SPRDG NORTH ALONG THE DELMARVA SUN NITE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRT PCPN TYPE AS RAIN. HIGHS SUN 45-50...COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WARMER OVR THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SUN NITE 30-35...XCPT 35-40 ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION... STRNG / GUSTY N WINDS XPCTD ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS BTWN 40-50 MPH SUN AND SUN NITE OVR VA BCH / NRN OUTER BANKS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN THE HWO. THE OCEAN LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE MON WITH THE NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY DIVING SE FROM THE GT LAKES AND OHIO VLLY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE PRBLY WILL BE A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW...MSTR QUICKLY INCRS WEST TO EAST THRU THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS WRN HALF OF FA AS THE MSTR FROM THE UPR LVL LOW CROSSES THE MTS. PCPN TYPE REMAINS LIQUID WITH HIGHS 45-50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PVS DSCN: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH SO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION OVER SE VA/NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL END SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT THE PCPN TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS INDICATED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 30S. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS PCPN ENDS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW TOWARD THE COAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W/SW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 40S MONDAY WILL LOWER TO THE LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST FROM 30 TO 35 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS MORNINGS SNOW EVENT HAS ENDED AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4-8K FT WILL CLEAR BY SUNSET. GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS VARIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ORF/ECG AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TAF SITES NEAR THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL IN PCPN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... UPDATE AS OF 1 PM EST... ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SCA. THESE ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EST EXCEPT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATE AS OF 1030 AM EST... HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE CHES BAY WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING SUBSIDING WINDS. HAVE REPLACED THE GALES WITH AN SCA WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE LOWER JAMES RIVER. GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM AND WILL BE REPLACING THOSE WITH AN SCA AT THAT TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1008MB SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING NNE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST, WITH SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR STRONG/HIGH END SCA WINDS AT 08Z, WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL MIDDAY). THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY EJECTING NE TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA BY AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30KT (15-25KT ERN VA RIVERS) THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AOB 10KT LATE TNGT. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY SCA BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY AND SOUND BEFORE SUB- SCA CONDS RETURN THIS EVENING. SEAS AVERAGE 5-7FT NRN COASTAL WATERS AND 6-10FT SRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. EVEN AFTER GALES CAN BE LOWERED, SCA MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WL LKLY BE NEEDED AS SEAS TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO DROP BELOW 5FT, ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES, WHICH COULD REMAIN AOA 5FT UNTIL SAT MORNING. WAVES ON CHES BAY AVERAGE 4-5FT THIS MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THIS AFTN. WAVES MAY REACH UP TO 6FT IN THE LOWER CHES BAY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THRU MID MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE BY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA TO GALE FORCE IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN/SUN NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS AND LIFTS IN OUR DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-10FT SRN COASTAL WATERS AND 5-7FT NRN COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVES ON CHES BAY SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT WITH UP TO 4-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY SUN NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL AND STONY CREEK...CASHIE AT WINDSOR...RICHMOND/WESTHAM AND THE MEHERRIN AT LAWRENCEVILLE. THIS ALL DUE TO THE COMBO OF RECENT SNOWMELT AND THE RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634-638. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM/MAM HYDROLOGY...ESS/AKQ

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