Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181145 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 645 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. A warm front lifts north through the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A cold front has pushed well south and east of the local area this morning as high pressure continues to nudge eastward from the Midwest. This high builds over the region today for a dry/mostly sunny day. Some locally dense fog has developed this morning across the Piedmont. Eastward expansion of the fog/low stratus based on GOES satellite data will bring it close to the Richmond Metro by 7am. Mixing should commence rather quickly between 13-14z to allow the fog/low stratus to dissipate. Light W-NW winds this morning will become N then NE this afternoon. Although sunshine will promote milder temperatures this afternoon inland, temps will be held in check by the onshore flow at the coast. Highs mainly from the mid to upper 50s west of Ches Bay (warmest south central VA), with cooler conditions, mainly in the upper 40s/lower 50s close to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly clear this evening with increasing clouds overnight from SW to NE as models bring next system and a return of moisture back from the SW by Mon morning. Lows mainly 35-40F though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight across the west. Should see some light rain arrive late tonight west of I-95. Have 30-40% PoPs Piedmont to around 20% along the I-95 corridor from 9z-12z Mon. With the sfc high well off the mid-Atlc/New england coast on Mon, overrunning moisture pushes across the local area with mainly cloudy skies and a light E/SE flow. Best forcing remains off to our NW however, so not necessarily looking at a lot of QPF. Will carry 30-50% PoPs most areas for now before 18z, then slight chc PoPs in the afternoon except up to 30-40% far Eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Not a true CAD setup, but a lot of clouds and shallow mixing will keep it cool for much of the day, especially across the Piedmont. Late day highs will avg 50-55F W/NW to the low 60s far SE. Increasing SW flow Mon night as upper ridge axis begins to amplify/build off the SE coast. Models indicate some continued light QPF amounts Mon night, but there is little forcing for precipitation so will genly keep PoPs capped at just 20%. Milder with little drop in temperatures due to the SW flow, lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The local area will be firmly in the warm sector on Tue, with strong upper ridge centered over the Gulf Stream off the SE coast. GFS/NAM depict a lot of low level moisture across the area so skies may start off mostly cloudy. Suspect the SW low level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to +10 to +12 C will be sufficient to scour out the low level clouds by late morning and allow for a partly sunny day. Highs expected into the 70s except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong +2 st dev 500mb ridge will be located over the Subtropical wrn Atlantic Wednesday bringing very warm temperatures. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid 50s to around 60F, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 60s/low 70s over the Ern Shore, and at least mid/upper 70s elsewhere. There is the potential for low 80s over SE VA/NE NC. A weak shortwave trough is progged to rotate around the ridge Wednesday, and this could result in some more clouds and low PoPs (20-30%) over the Piedmont. The ridge slowly breaks down Wednesday night into Thursday, but remains strong. Therefore, a cold front to the NW will have slow progress reaching the Mid-Atlantic. PoPs Wednesday night will range from 20-30% S to 30-40% N, then ~30% S to 50-60% N Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will mainly be in the 50s, with the potential for wide ranging highs Thursday possibly around 60F/low 60s N to the 70s SE depending on where the cold front reaches. Upper level ridging will continue to prevail but gradually weaken off the Southeast coast later next week into next Weekend with well above normal temperatures continuing. There remains some uncertainty with the cold front, with the general consensus for the front to be into NC Friday with highs in the 50s to low 60s, and then lifting back N as a warm front with highs in the 60s to around 70F by Saturday. Forecast PoPs are mainly 20-30% Thursday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Still some lingering sub-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in locally dense fog this morning across the Piedmont. Eastward expansion of the fog/low stratus based on GOES satellite data will bring it close to KRIC around 12z...and so have included a TEMPO group for IFR VSBY until 13z. Mixing should commence rather quickly between 13-14z to allow the fog/low stratus to dissipate. After that, VFR conditions expected for the rest of today with few clouds as high pressure builds in. Winds will remain light thru the TAF period. Another round of rain showers and flight restrictions/lower cigs are possible by Monday and possibly lasting through Mon night/Tue morning with low stratus. Expect VFR/warm SSW flow to prevail Tue after the early am clouds scour out. A cold front approaches from the NW on Wednesday but expect VFR conditions to prevail.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1008mb sfc low pressure now offshore of the Delmarva coast with the associated sfc cold front now dropping south across the SE coast. Latest obs reflect W-NW flow 10-15 kt across the waters this morning. Pressure gradient remains compressed enough for some near SCA gusts early this morning over northern waters, then slackens later this morning and this afternoon, with sub-SCA conditions then expected to persist through at least the midweek. NNE winds this aftn veer around to the ESE tonight, as surface high slides offshore, becoming southerly Mon night into Tue as a warm front lifts north across the waters. SSW flow persists into midweek, with seas remaining 2-4 ft.-4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 * RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) * ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) * SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) * ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAM CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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