Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291921 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAM

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