Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210220 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1020 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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LO PRES IS LIMPING OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS EVENING...WHILE SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR ERN NEW ENG. COMBINATION OF THAT LO AND SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LO LVL FLO FM THE NE THROUGH TNGT. WORST OF THE WX HAS BEEN CONFINED TO CSTL NE NC...WHERE CLDS...GUSTY NE WNDS (TO 30-40 KT) AND INTERMITTENT LGT RAIN PREVAILED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALSO...CARRYING HI SURF ADVISORY FM BEACHES ON NRN NC OUTER BANKS AS SURF WAVES AVG CLOSE TO 8 FT (MINOR BCH EROSION PSBL AS WELL). BKN-OVC CLDS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC OVERNIGHT...W/ 20% POPS FOR NE NC THROUGH 06Z. ELSW...MAINLY CLR...BREEZY INLAND/WINDY AT THE CST. LO TEMPS FM THE U30S INLAND TO M/U40S AT THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPR LVL RDG BUILDS OVR THE REGION LATER TNGT THRU MON WITH LO PRES CONTINUING TO (SLOLY) MOVE OUT TO SEA. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED OVR CSTL NE NC (ALBEIT VERY SLOLY)...W/ CLR-P/CLDY WX ELSW. CDFNT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVE...WILL PUSH E AND OVR THE MTNS TUE MRNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCRSG CLDS FM W-E TUE...ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR RA. MOST OF IF NOT ALL RA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTN W...AND TWD LT AFTN/EVE E ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FNT ENTERS THE REGION. HI TEMPS MON FM 55 TO 60F RIGHT ALG THE CST...TO RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TO NR 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGING FM THE M40S TO ARND 50F. HI TEMPS ON TUE RANGING FM THE M/U70S INLAND...TO THE U60S TO L70S AT THE CST. THE CDFNT PUSHES OUT TO SEA TUE NGT...W/ SGFNT DRYING AND A PD OF COOLING THEREAFTER (FM AFT MDNGT TUE NGT THROUGH WED). MAINTAINING 30-40% POPS ERN PORTION OF THE FA TUE EVE...15-25% ELSW...THEN CLEARING AFT MDNGT AS WINDS BECOME NW. NR SEASONABLE/CLR-PCLDY WX XPCD WED W/ GUSTY NW WNDS...MNLY ERN PORTION. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS- LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE PORTIONS OVERNIGHT AND AT ORF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. USED NAM BUFR AND GFS MOS FOR SKY CONDITIONS AS NAM MOS WAS OUT TO LUNCH. HAVE MVFR AT ECG AND ORF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IT AT PHF MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OUTLOOK...SOME PATCHY FOG IS PSBL TUESDAY MORNING BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS DO NOT POINT TO WIDESPREAD IFR. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OFF THE SE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN WATERS BTWN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND AND LOWER BAY. MHX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 40-50 KT WINDS A THOUSAND FOOT OFF THE SFC WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED SITES RECORDING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NEWD. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...AVERAGING 20-30 KT. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 7-10 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS) TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS BY MID- LATE MON MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR WAVES 4+ FT THRU MON AS WELL AS THE SOUND FOR WINDS 20-25 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT MON. FLOW BECOMES SLY MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT-EARLY TUES MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/AJZ SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM

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