Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211921 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 321 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40% POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20 ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .MARINE... BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...DAP MARINE...AJZ/TMG

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