Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212056 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 456 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary remains stalled along or just off the Southeast or Mid Atlantic coast into Friday morning, with low pressure lingering near the Southeast or Mid Atlantic coast tonight into Friday morning. High pressure builds over the local area Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Late this aftn, remnant lo pres that was tropical cyclone Julia was cntrd ovr ern SC. This lo pres area continues to pull bands of showers and isolated tstms into the srn two thirds of the CWA, with moderate to heavy showers affecting much of the srn half of the region. Due to continued areal flooding going on acrs most of SE VA and NE NC, and additional rainfall between .50 inch and 2 inches possible in these areas thru this evening, have extended or expanded the Flash Flood Watch until midngt. Coverage and intensity of the pcpn will decrease overnight, and Pops will decrease rapidly as you go N of a Farmville to Petersburg to Wallops Island line. Lows tngt will range fm the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A frontal boundary and lingering lo pres near the SE or Mid Altc coast, will continue to result in at least hi chc pops (40-50%) acrs the Srn/SE portions of the region Thu into Thu evening. The combination of nrn stream energy and the upr lo/associated upr trough weakening, will finally result in Pops shifting offshr later Fri/Fri evening. Surface hi pres will bld over the region Fri evening into Sat morning. A backdoor front will then drops acrs the area during Sat. Expecting dry conditions Fri evening thru Sat. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s Thu, and in the upr 70s to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the 60s to arnd 70 Thu ngt, and in the mid 60s to near 70 Fri ngt.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A trough digs over the Northeast US Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley. That ridge then slowly amplifies and pushes eastward Mon-Wed. Models have trended weaker with respect to pushing the associated cold front completely through the area on Sunday. Surface high pressure is progged to become centered over eastern Canada with a piece of the High ridging down into the northern mid-Atlantic states Sunday night into Tue (rather than actually building over the local area). While deep moisture will be pushed south of the local area, this pattern suggests that the sensible weather will still feature a persistent easterly low level flow with skies to avg partly to mostly cloudy Sunday (and perhaps Mon/Tue as well). Have also lingered 20% POPS for much of the area Sunday, shifting to the Sw zones Sun night/Mon. Highs will average in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A stalled frontal boundary remains near the coast this afternoon with weak low pressure continuing to slowly move across eastern NC. Weak high pressure is currently situated to the north of the area. Showers continue to move across portions of SE Virginia and NE North Carolina this afternoon with a slight decreasing trend in coverage/intensity. Showers have also developed across central Virginia and continue to propagate west of RIC. Similar to the past few nights, tricky forecast is in store for IFR versus MVFR. Expecting stratus to develop in this moist airmass, thus have IFR conditions in the forecast for RIC/SBY/ECG with cloud decks hovering between 500-600 feet at these locations later tonight. Also cannot rule out the chance for showers near the coast, especially during the first half of the overnight period. Reflected this in the TAF by leaving showers in the forecast through 00Z for ORF/PHF/ECG. Am expecting a gradual improvement in cigs to MVFR conditions by morning with cloud decks rising above 1000 feet across the region after 12Z. Winds across the area are generally onshore around 10 knots. Winds are still expected to gust up to 20 knots along the coast. Outlook: Gradual improving conditions are expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure continues to build just north of the area. VFR conditions can be expected by Saturday. Another frontal boundary approaches the area Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... SCA headlines are in effect for all coastal waters (through Thu night), for the lower/mid Bay (through tonight/Thu morning, and lower James/Currituck Sound through this evening. The wind slowly diminishes late tonight/Thursday, but seas remain 4- 6 ft for Ocean waters. The latest data suggests low pressure emerges back over the ocean Thursday night into Friday, which suggests a modest 10-15kt nne wind continues. This will allow seas to remain 3-5ft, with 2-3ft waves in the mouth of the Bay. A cold front approaching from the N Friday night and pushing into the area Saturday is now looking to stall over the Carolinas by Sunday. Marginal SCA conditions are possible but appear less likely now that the cool surge behind the front may stay mainly N of the local area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 20Z, tidal departures avg +0.5 to 1.0 ft over the marine area, so despite significant flooding from heavy rainfall across portions of Hampton Roads and northeast NC, actual coastal/tidal flooding has been minimal from this event with major sites falling short of Minor Flood thresholds by around 0.5 ft. Will maintain the Coastal Flood Advisory for the mid/upper James River zones through 7 pm this evening but have allowed the remainder of advisories to expire. Additional tidal flooding does not look likely for Thu, with departures expected to continue at +0.5 to +1.0 ft through Thu/Fri. One explanation for the rather low departures may be due to water that has been able to exit the Bay into the Ocean fairly efficiently despite the persistent onshore flow. Will continue to monitor however, as tidal anomalies may build nwd through the Bay by Thu which could lead to some marginal tidal flooding by that time. A beach hazard statement will continue today for a high threat of rip currents and dangerous shorebreak across the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>014- 030-031. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ089- 090-093-524. Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ092-093- 095>098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ631-632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.