Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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037 FXUS61 KAKQ 070133 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 833 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THIS EVE WHILE A CSTL TROF ALREADY NOTED OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVE WILL SPAWN LOW PRS OFF THE FLA COAST AFTR MIDNITE. MODELS OFFERING UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON HOW FAST AND FAR NORTH ANY PCPN GETS BEFORE 12Z. SREF MUCH FASTER THAN NAM/GFS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PCPN SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SHWR ACTIVITY DVLPNG ALONG THE NC COAST ATTM BUT LEANED TOWARD A SLOWER BEGINNING TO THE PCPN ACROSS AKQ FA ALTHOUGH SOME LGHT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SND BY 12Z. PT CLDY CNDTNS TO START OFF THE PRD WITH THICKENING CLDNS ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS IN THE M20S-L30S XCPT M30S IVOF ALBEMARLE SND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NITES FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW (NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LTST SREF BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN BACK AS FAR AS THE I95 CORRIDOR WHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A 50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK (EITHER DRCTN) WUD MAKE FOR A DFRNT SCENARIO. GIVEN THE AMT OF DRY AIR SEEN ALOFT...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/GFS SOLN OF THE PCPN BEING CONFINED TO THE CHES BAY ON EAST. DRY OVER THE PIEDMONT. BCMG WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCRG THRU OUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS 45-50 (COOLEST CSTL AREAS...WARMEST PIEDMONT WHERE SOME PRTL SUN PSBL). LTST DATA SPRTS ENUF COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP ARND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS ARND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMLS). OTW...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO CSTL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NITE U20S-L30S..XCPT M30S SERN CSTL AREAS. 12Z DATA SPRTS A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING. NXT SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE NW MON AFTRN WITH ENUF UPR LVL SPRT FOR THE MSTR TO CROSS THE MTS AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN. THERMAL PROFILES WRM ENUF FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHWRS. HIGHS MON 45-50. THE UPR LVL SYSTM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST MON NITE. MEANWHILE...MSTR FROM YET ANTHR UPR LVL SYSTM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE RGN TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHWRS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS LATE MON NITE AND TUE MORN. LOWS MON NITE 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX-RIC-SBY LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHWRS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AT ORF/ECG SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP BY 18Z AT ECG. 25-30KT WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED SUN AFTN/EVNG AT ORF/ECG AS THE DEEPENING LOW CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA. OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN AT SBY SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY BRIEFLY GO TO IFR SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WHERE N/NE WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY WILL REMAIN VFR. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE... THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT (HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...JDM/TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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